We want to be candid about our hit rate with last year's column predicting turnaround candidates after the first wave of free agency. It was ... not good. Did the Falcons, Saints and Broncos turn it around in 2023? No, no and no. The Bears? Half credit. The Patriots and Jets? Laughably wrong. There was no mention of the Houston Texans, who, of course, executed the season's most stunning about-face, going from laughingstock to the playoffs in the space of one offseason. That's the power of smart drafting and a very good head coach.
The Texans give the NFL's downtrodden hope. Maybe it's folly to predict breakout teams more than a month before the draft, and especially so this year. Will Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels have the same instant impact as C.J. Stroud did in Houston? Which teams will try to maneuver to draft a quarterback high? No matter. With the buzz of free agency quieting down, we can at least see who might be in position to do much better in 2024. The Texans miss the list this year, too, because they are probably moving to another list: dark-horse Super Bowl picks.Â
Here are the teams who hope to follow in the footsteps of DeMeco Ryans and Co. in 2024:
It's strange to say a playoff team is in need of a turnaround, but the Eagles were in freefall in December and January, and they exited the postseason with an embarrassing 32-9 loss to the Bucs. That was Howie Roseman's bat signal, and he had a busy and fruitful first week of free agency. The big prize was signing running back Saquon Barkley, who should make a significant impact behind an offensive line that is much better than any he ever had with the Giants; Barkley should also provide a lot of easy completions for Jalen Hurts. And don't discount the return of defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson and the arrival of pass rusher Bryce Huff, both of whom should play a big part in improving a pass defense that ranked 31st last season.
As long as Aaron Rodgers is upright and not on a presidential ticket, the Jets should be far better than they were during last season's debacle. To be fair, though, there were other issues beyond Rodgers' torn Achilles that torpedoed 2023, and general manager Joe Douglas made a few moves to fix them. Most importantly, he addressed an offensive line that was a mess before Rodgers was hurt and continued to be one, no matter who was lining up at quarterback. Douglas signed guard John Simpson, traded for right tackle Morgan Moses and, in the biggest splash, signed left tackle Tyron Smith who -- when healthy -- is one of the best at the position in the league. Douglas also signed Mike Williams; presuming Williams can come back strong from last season's ACL tear, he can help take some of the load off the brilliant Garrett Wilson. New QB Tyrod Taylor will be the experienced, competent backup the Jets lacked last season, but mostly what they need is a healthy Rodgers. The jobs of everyone -- probably including Douglas and coach Robert Saleh -- rest on it.
The biggest move of the offseason so far was Kirk Cousins' decision to sign with the Falcons. Even coming off an Achilles tear, Cousins is an enormous upgrade for a team that nearly made the playoffs in the NFC South despite poor quarterback play, which led the Falcons to finish 26th in the NFL in scoring offense. With Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, the newly added Darnell Mooney and a top-level line, the offense is complete. New head coach Raheem Morris, in his second go-around in that job, should avoid some of the growing pains that hampered the previous staff. The Buccaneers retained their most important players in free agency and should not be taken lightly in the NFC South, but it would be a shock if the Falcons are not more formidable competition in the league's most wide-open division.
Joe Burrow should be back to full health, so it is almost impossible to imagine the Bengals finishing last in the AFC North and missing the playoffs again, even in that loaded division. The signing of ex-Baltimore safety Geno Stone strengthened the defense and dealt a blow to the Ravens. Running back Zack Moss is more spry than the traded-away Joe Mixon. Mike Gesicki is an upgrade as a pass-catching tight end. And Trent Brown will step in at right tackle for the departed Jonah Williams. The X-factor, though, is what the Bengals do about receiver Tee Higgins, who has asked for a trade after receiving the franchise tag. Higgins is a No. 1-caliber receiver talent, and the Bengals could simply ignore his wishes, but that could create an ugly distraction if Higgins holds out of camp. When Burrow is healthy, the Bengals have proven to be one of the few consistent threats to the Chiefs, but they will need Higgins to topple Kansas City.
Here's another team that made the playoffs last season, and still it felt like a failure. The Steelers were unusually aggressive in remaking their quarterback room, signing Russell Wilson, dumping Kenny Pickett and trading for Justin Fields. Wilson is in line to be the starter, and he doesn't even have to be as good as he was with the Seattle Seahawks to improve one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the league. Wilson joins a team with a stellar defense (which now includes linebacker Patrick Queen) that largely carried the Steelers throughout last season. Now, they will have veteran leadership for a young offense, a quarterback who can get the ball to George Pickens and an offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith) whose run-centric scheme will take some pressure off Wilson.
Let's be clear -- this is not a prediction that Washington will make the playoffs next season. But after bottoming out with just four victories in 2023, firing Ron Rivera and sending quarterback Sam Howell packing, the Commanders are in the middle of a massive roster overhaul. In the first two days of the negotiating period, they came to terms with a whopping 12 players. Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz (who signed earlier in March) are experienced weapons on the offense, and the defense, among the league's worst last season, should get a boost from linebackers Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner and safety Jeremy Chinn. Everything hinges, of course, on which quarterback the Commanders draft and how he does, but for a team with such a miserable past, Washington at least seems to be building a foundation for a turnaround.
The Bears won seven games last season, but with the widespread assumption they'll draft Caleb Williams first overall, and with weapons like Keenan Allen, D'Andre Swift and Gerald Everett joining DJ Moore, expectations are soaring. Keeping Jaylon Johnson was a huge win. If Williams can have anywhere close to the kind of rookie season that Stroud did, the Bears should be pushing for a playoff spot while also embarking on a headline-making rollout of one of the most highly anticipated draftees in years.
