In June, I projected the top 10 offenses for the 2025 NFL campaign. A month later, it’s time to shift prognostic focus to the other side of the ball.
For the offensive rankings, I looked to answer one straightforward question: Who will score the most points in 2025? Naturally, this defensive rundown aims to infer the opposite: Who will give up the fewest points in 2025? Now, there is one important caveat …
Traditional scoring defense catalogues the total number of points allowed by each team, including scores yielded by the offense (pick-six, fumble-six, safety) and special teams (return touchdown). Seeing how the objective of this file is to establish a defensive hierarchy, I’m refining the prompt to a more direct question:
Who will give up the fewest points in 2025 when the defense is on the field?
Basically, true scoring defense. For reference, let’s recap last season’s 10 stingiest units by that criterion.
10) Miami Dolphins: 345 total points allowed (20.3 per game)
9) Seattle Seahawks: 344 (20.2)
8) Detroit Lions: 334 (19.6)
7) Pittsburgh Steelers: 333 (19.6)
6) Kansas City Chiefs: 326 (19.2)
5) Minnesota Vikings: 323 (19.0)
4) Green Bay Packers: 318 (18.7)
3) Denver Broncos: 311 (18.3)
2) Los Angeles Chargers: 299 (17.6)
1) Philadelphia Eagles: 288 (16.9)
Which teams will fill those slots in 2025? Well, defenses typically fluctuate more than offenses from year to year, so it isn’t necessarily shocking that two of the top four teams from above don’t even make the list below. Or maybe I’m just an idiot. Regardless, here is my forecast, in countdown form.
JUST MISSED: Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco 49ers.
I spent a regrettable amount of time considering other teams for this final slot only to settle on Pittsburgh’s obligatory inclusion on this list. The Steelers haven’t exactly set the league on fire since Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement, but the defense continues to drag this organization into the playoffs. It starts, of course, with T.J. Watt. The annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate is mired in a contract stalemate with the team, but I’m operating under the assumption that the two sides ultimately will reach a resolution. Watt’s disappearing act in the final month of last season certainly raised an eyebrow, but his long-standing knack for making game-changing plays just isn’t something you willingly abandon. With Watt as the centerpiece, Pittsburgh boasts one of the very best defensive lines in football. Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig provide enviable edge-rushing depth, while Cam Heyward continues to stiff-arm Father Time on the interior. Add in second-year pro Keeanu Benton and rookie first-round pick Derrick Harmon, and the Steelers are absolutely loaded up front. But what’s the story on the back end? Pittsburgh suffered an unacceptable amount of coverage busts last season, precipitating last month’s trade of Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Steelers landed Jalen Ramsey as part of their return in that deal and also signed Darius Slay in free agency. With those two veteran corners in the fold, Joey Porter Jr. has less of a target on his back, which should help him rebound from a sophomore slump. The safety position is an area of concern in the wake of Fitzpatrick’s departure, with free-agent signee Juan Thornhill in line to fill the role in center field. That said, I continue to think DeShon Elliott is one of the more underappreciated players in the league. The strong safety’s hard-hitting style fits perfectly in Pittsburgh, making June’s two-year, $12.5 million extension a no-brainer value play.
Last season’s Patriots couldn’t even crack the top 20 in true scoring defense -- ranking 21st -- so what makes me believe they’ll soar into the top 10? A striking offseason glow-up. New England spared no expense in free agency, upgrading all three levels of the defense with four new starters: DT Milton Williams, OLB Harold Landry III, ILB Robert Spillane and CB Carlton Davis III. Furthermore, with CB Christian Gonzalez fresh off a breakout sophomore season that saw him earn second-team All-Pro honors and DT Christian Barmore apparently checking every box in his recovery from blood clots, the Pats appear poised to field the kind of stout defense we became accustomed to in Bill Belichick’s heyday. New head coach Mike Vrabel, who won three Super Bowls as a linebacker in Belichick’s unit in New England, had a pretty buttoned-up D in Tennessee that often punched above its weight. What can Vrabel cultivate from this talent core? The future looks bright, especially considering the Patriots’ highly advantageous slate in 2025. Outside of two games against Josh Allen and one apiece vs. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, New England’s schedule features a host of unproven and/or unreliable quarterbacks. The Pats have 11 games against teams that finished last season in the bottom half of the league in offensive points per game. Taking all of this into account, New England could experience the kind of rapid ascent we saw last season in Denver, when the Broncos skyrocketed from 27th in defensive points allowed to third.
Pass rush vs. pass coverage: Which is more crucial? It’s the eternal defensive debate, and Minnesota clearly puts greater value on heating up opposing quarterbacks. The Vikings’ front seven is loaded with hellacious QB hunters. Last season, Jonathan Greenard (12 sacks) and Andrew Van Ginkel (11.5 sacks) comprised one of the most devastating edge-rushing duos in the league, with each earning a Pro Bowl nod. And this offseason, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah scooped up a pair of established interior disruptors in Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. Toss in well-rounded LB Blake Cashman, blitz 'backer Ivan Pace Jr. and Swiss Army knife Josh Metellus, and mad scientist coordinator Brian Flores has all the components he needs to scramble the brains of opposing quarterbacks. Constant chaos is a must, though, because this unit looks quite suspect from a pure coverage perspective. Byron Murphy Jr. is the best of the bunch, but he does some of his finest work as a slot corner. The other outside options -- headlined by Isaiah Rodgers, Jeff Okudah and Mekhi Blackmon -- leave much to be desired. With all due respect to Harrison Smith, the hard-hitting safety is entering Year 14 at age 36 -- and he’ll have to hold down the back end without ballhawk/dance choreographer Camryn Bynum, who got paid by the Colts in free agency. So, Flores needs to continue overwhelming opponents with waves of pressure. One thing that would help in this pursuit: a second-year leap from OLB Dallas Turner. The No. 17 overall pick in last year’s draft didn’t provide much as a rookie, but he entered the NFL with the athletic pedigree of an edge terror.
After a staggering defensive drop-off in the Ravens’ playoff-free campaign of 2021, John Harbaugh recalled Mike Macdonald from his brother’s college team (Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines) and tasked the former Baltimore assistant with restoring the unit’s proud tradition. In Year 1 with Macdonald as coordinator, the Ravens ranked fifth in defensive points allowed. In Year 2, they jumped to No. 1. Consequently, Seattle hired Macdonald as head coach, hoping to revitalize a defense that had significantly atrophied in the latter years of Pete Carroll’s tenure, finishing 28th in defensive points allowed in 2023. In Year 1 under Macdonald, the Seahawks ranked ninth -- and they have the pieces in place to make another jump in Year 2. Pro Bowler Leonard Williams headlines a deep front that should get more from 2024 first-rounder Byron Murphy II and could receive an additional boost from veteran addition DeMarcus Lawrence. Ernest Jones IV arrived in Seattle via trade last October and immediately settled the linebacker position, leading to a three-year, $33 million extension in March. The secondary could be the best position group on the team, with alpha dog Devon Witherspoon flanked by versatile safeties Julian Love and Coby Bryant, as well as unfathomably long and fast corner Riq Woolen. Speaking of size/speed freaks, Seattle grabbed Nick Emmanwori in the second round of April’s draft. That’s a fun toy for Macdonald to play with. All in all, this defense has immense upside, given the play-caller and the personnel.
Detroit’s defense is as stout a unit as you’ll find up the spine, starting with a deep group at defensive tackle. Alim McNeill is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered in December, so he’s unlikely to be ready when the season kicks off. But assuming an eventual healthy return from the 25-year-old, he’s the kind of disruptive 3-tech who detonates pass protection. In his absence, the Lions have the luxury of turning to Levi Onwuzurike, whom Pro Football Focus credited with 47 pressures in 2024. The former second-round pick’s free-agent market just didn’t develop like many anticipated following a breakthrough season -- likely due to his injury history -- so the Lions happily retained him on a one-year, $5.5 million steal of a deal. Against the run, Detroit presents premium beef in the form of stalwart space-eater D.J. Reader, rookie first-rounder Tyleik Williams and underrated rotational vet Roy Lopez. On the second level, the linebacking trio of Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes is reliable and versatile. And in the back end, the Lions boast the best safety duo in the game today: Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. The question marks exist on the edges, starting with defensive end. Aidan Hutchinson was the early leader for Defensive Player of the Year before a gruesome leg fracture ended his season last October. Will he be able to seamlessly return to form? That question looms LARGE, because Detroit’s DEs look suspect beyond No. 97. At corner, Terrion Arnold endured a trial by fire as a rookie starter in a scheme that’s heavy on press-man coverage. While penalties were a problem early in Year 1, he ultimately showed the kind of growth that could trigger a leap forward in Year 2. Meanwhile, D.J. Reed feels like a fine replacement for Carlton Davis III, but the veteran still needs to prove himself in a new defense. The biggest question of all, though, could be the man in charge. Aaron Glenn is gone, having taken the Jets’ head-coaching job in January. Dan Campbell’s right-hand man did an admirable job last season with a defense that was absolutely ravaged by injuries. Kelvin Sheppard was internally promoted to coordinator, and the franchise has high hopes for the 37-year-old former player, but this is the first time he’s run a defense. Hope he has better injury luck.
With five Super Bowl appearances (and three wins) in the past six seasons, Kansas City’s enjoying a dynastic run. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes typically receive the most fanfare, but over the past two seasons, the Chiefs have largely been fueled by Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. Ranking second in 2023 and sixth in ’24 in defensive points allowed, the unit consistently keeps the team in games and allows Mahomes to work his magic at winning time. Everything revolves around the big man up front, Chris Jones. The 6-foot-6, 310-pounder wanders all over the defensive front as a roving nightmare with a penchant for game-wreckage in the biggest spots. Kansas City has another elite defender in Trent McDuffie, an inside/outside cover man who plays a brand of football that’s as cerebral as it is physical, endearing him to every coach he comes across. While the Chiefs boast a supreme talent on the first and third levels of the defense, the second level is the unit’s most complete, with a talented trio of linebackers. Nick Bolton just became one of the highest-paid LBs in the league, Leo Chenal’s an athletic enforcer on the rise, and Drue Tranquill is a rangy veteran with useful skills against the run and pass. Kansas City lost a pair of quality starters to free agency in safety Justin Reid and defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton, but GM Brett Veach helped the secondary and interior D-line with a couple of offseason additions. Free-agent signee Kristian Fulton is a battle-tested outside corner who should allow McDuffie to spend more snaps in the slot, like he did during his first-team All-Pro season of 2023. Second-round DT Omarr Norman-Lott is a pass-rushing specialist who could be a rotational hellion early in his career.
Pat Surtain II became just the second outside cornerback to earn Defensive Player of the Year honors in the past 30 years, but he wasn’t the only young CB to level up in 2024. Derek Stingley Jr., who received first-team All-Pro honors alongside Surtain, fully realized the NFL potential everyone envisioned when he was a true freshman All-American on LSU’s 2019 national championship team. Now he headlines a spectacular secondary that also features a couple second-year studs (CB Kamari Lassiter and S Calen Bullock) and a pair of feisty playmakers (NB Jalen Pitre and S C.J. Gardner-Johnson). Combining that coverage unit with the relentless edge-rushing duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, DeMeco Ryans is cooking with some high-octane gas on the defensive side of the ball. The soft spot remains at defensive tackle, where a lack of true difference-makers fuels a lingering concern that this team could get gashed on the ground (SEE: the humiliating home loss to Baltimore last Christmas). That said, Houston’s run defense finished last season in the top half of the league in most metrics, with back-seven players like linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair routinely rallying to the football. Houston has ranked 15th in defensive points allowed during each of the first two seasons of the Ryans era, but I think the group can crack the top five in 2025, thanks to improved depth, continued development and a whole heap o’ havoc-wreakers.
Zach Orr’s debut season as defensive coordinator got off to a disastrous start in the first two months, with Baltimore ranking 25th or worse in scoring defense (26.1 ppg), total defense (361.3 ypg), passer rating against (103.4) and opponents’ third-down percentage (46.7). But the young coach completely flipped the script at midseason. From Week 9 through the end of the regular season, the Ravens ranked first in scoring defense (16.9 ppg), second in total defense (291.2 ypg) and passer rating against (79.0) and third in opponents’ third-down percentage (33.9). What provoked such a dramatic turnaround? Orr made a number of personnel tweaks to fix what had been a broken pass defense, including moving Kyle Hamilton to free safety. Hamilton admirably filled the role, underscoring his limitless ability, but Baltimore found a more permanent solution in the first round of April’s draft. Highly pedigreed, instinctive safety Malaki Starks not only feels like a perfect Raven, but his ability as a center fielder will allow Hamilton to move back toward the line of scrimmage, where he terrorizes opposing offenses as a roaming playmaker. GM Eric DeCosta also fortified the cornerback position, taking a worthwhile gamble on injury-riddled former Pro Bowler Jaire Alexander and signing Chidobe Awuzie as veteran depth. Mix in second-round pick Mike Green as a designated pass rusher in the edge rotation, and Orr’s defense appears poised to build on last winter’s remarkable surge.
The Super Bowl champs suffered substantial defensive attrition this offseason, losing three full-time starters (OLB Josh Sweat, CB Darius Slay and S C.J. Gardner-Johnson), a budding star (DT Milton Williams) and one of the most beloved Eagles of the 21st century (OLB Brandon Graham). And yet, I won’t be the least bit surprised if Vic Fangio fields the NFL’s stingiest defense for a second consecutive season. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter is on the fast track to becoming one of the league’s most destructive forces -- if he isn’t already there -- while Nolan Smith emerged as an edge-rushing menace last season, racking up four sacks in the playoffs. NT Jordan Davis has yet to live up to his No. 13 overall draft pedigree, but he’s still a gargantuan space-eater who showed some pass-rushing growth down the stretch last season. If DT Moro Ojomo and OLB Jalyx Hunt can turn rotational flashes into starting production, the aforementioned losses up front could be quickly forgotten. Zack Baun headlines the linebacking corps, fresh off a revelatory season that earned him first-team All-Pro honors and a three-year, $51 million extension. Nakobe Dean’s likely to start the season on the PUP list as he works his way back from a serious knee injury suffered on Wild Card Weekend, but Philadelphia just took a linebacker in Round 1 for the first time in 46 years, snatching up versatile weapon Jihaad Campbell. The secondary’s highlighted by a pair of second-year stars (CB Quinyon Mitchell and NB Cooper DeJean) and a solid safety who rarely gets his due (Reed Blankenship). The biggest question mark on Philly’s entire roster is probably CB2, with Kelee Ringo and Adoree' Jackson battling for the starting role. Bottom line: While the Eagles must replace a number of key cogs from last season’s dominant D, Howie Roseman has hoarded enough talent to achieve a smooth transition.
After ranking 27th in defensive points allowed in 2023, Denver soared to No. 3 last season. This year, I have the Broncos taking another step forward to edge out the Eagles and Ravens for top billing on this list. Why? Well, in addition to returning 14 of their top 15 players in defensive snaps -- LB Cody Barton was the lone loss -- they signed big-ticket free agents Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga and then spent their first-round pick on versatile defensive back Jahdae Barron. So, the group that led the league in sacks and defensive EPA (expected points added) just got better. Let’s examine the particulars -- and seeing how the reigning Defensive Player of the Year resides in the secondary, we’ll go back to front. Pat Surtain II has established himself as the best cornerback in the game today, while Riley Moss looked like a quality CB2 in just his second season. At safety, Hufanga joins Brandon Jones to give Denver an interchangeable pair of ferocious cover men who'll both get after the quarterback in Vance Joseph’s blitz-happy scheme. And Barron figures to slot right into the starting nickel role, providing Joseph with another multi-talented chess piece to play around with. Linebacker is the least imposing group on this defense, but Greenlaw certainly spices things up -- if he can return to full health. Up front, the Broncos bring waves of pressure, with six different players recording at least five sacks last season: Nik Bonitto (13.5), Jonathon Cooper (10.5), Zach Allen (8.5), John Franklin-Myers (7), Jonah Elliss (5), Dondrea Tillman (5). The deep defensive line is a wall against the run, too, giving up the second-fewest yards per carry (3.9) in 2024. In summation, this looks like the best Denver D since the “No Fly Zone” gave the franchise its third Lombardi Trophy a decade ago.