The 2026 NFL schedule is here! This means it's time for one of the greatest guilty pleasures of the offseason: running down each newly unveiled slate and counting up the Ws and Ls.
Of course, picking the winner of every NFL game in May is, obviously, an absurd project. We are still months away from meaningful on-field action, and we're going to learn so much more about, well, everyone in the league between now and September. Going 272-for-272 is not the point. (Ali strongly disagrees; he plays for keeps.)
No, we're here to A) set the stakes for the path each team is facing coming out of the offseason and B) speculate feverishly about how the landscape will evolve between Weeks 1 and 18.
Who has a shot at double-digit wins? Who's ready to angle for a postseason spot? Who might steal away more victories than expected? Join us on a weird, wild journey into the possible NFL of the near future below.
TEAM-BY TEAM SEASON PICKS
NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
NFC EAST
Ali's take on the Cowboys' season:
Like my colleague, Gennaro, I’ve reserved my spot on the Cowboys bandwagon for this season. Injuries and a woeful defense undermined Brian Schottenheimer’s debut campaign, but an offseason overhaul, including a new DC and several personnel upgrades, gives this club a totally different vibe entering 2026. If Dallas can hold up from Weeks 3-7, it could be in position to make a run down the stretch. (Their Week 14 bye, following a visit to Seattle and before a date with the Rams, looks huge right now.) I think it’s plausible the Cowboys end the year as they begin it, with wins over both the Giants and Commanders. After all, assuming Dak Prescott is under center for Dallas’ three division home tilts, you can go ahead and mark those as W’s now -- the dude hasn’t lost to an NFC East opponent at AT&T Stadium since Nov. 2017 (he’s on a 19-win heater!).
Toughest game to call: Week 3 vs. Ravens in Rio De Janeiro.
International games are always unpredictable, especially one against such a formidable foe. Dallas has a chance to make an early statement in this one.
Will the Cowboys make the playoffs?
- Ali: Yes, as NFC East champions (No. 2 seed).
- Tom: No.
Ali's take on the Giants' season:
The Giants have lost 32 games by double-digits over the last five seasons -- which is exactly as many as John Harbaugh dropped during his 18 years in Baltimore. So I figure the Super Bowl-winning coach’s mere presence at the front of the room will immediately improve New York’s overall competitiveness. Early home games against other teams in transition (Arizona and Tennessee) set up favorably for the G-Men, who have the fewest roster question marks of the group. But their road schedule is brutal (.577 opponents' 2025 win percentage -- hardest in the league), with two cross-country trips to NFC powerhouses, a date with old friend Daniel Jones and a meeting with the mighty Texans D in Week 7. While I don’t see the Giants repeating last year’s four-win effort, I also don’t see Harbs having the same type of Year 1 success as last year’s historically good coaching class.
Toughest game to call: Week 11 vs. Jaguars.
Really wanted to take the Giants here, especially with the Jags on the tail end of a three-week road trip.
Will the Giants make the playoffs?
- Ali: No.
- Tom: No.
Ali's take on the Eagles' season:
Are the Eagles at risk of suffering their first playoff-less season under Nick Sirianni? If they don’t start hot, they just might. Although I have them exacting revenge on the Bears (281 rushing yards allowed last year) and Rams (one of the wildest games of 2025) in Weeks 3-4, should those games go sideways for Philly, the reigning NFC East champs could return from their UK adventure against the Jags with a sub-.500 record and pressure mounting ahead of a home tilt with the Panthers. They’ll need to stack wins away from the Linc (31st-hardest road SOS) and during the middle chunk of their schedule to keep their tournament hopes alive -- both of which seem reasonable for a team this talented.
Toughest game to call: Week 3 at Bears.
If Chicago's ground game gets going again, good luck, Philly. I suspect the September temps will allow for a higher point total than when these two teams met in that frigid Black Friday game last season.
Will the Eagles make the playoffs?
- Ali: Yes, as a wild card (No. 7 seed).
- Tom: Yes, as the NFC East champion (No. 3 seed).
Ali's take on the Commanders' season:
Are the 2026 Commanders closer to their breakout 12-5 campaign from two years ago, or the 5-12 collapse from last season? I figure somewhere in the middle. Washington’s defense should be better after spending both dollars and draft picks to bolster its front seven. They’ll find out real quickly whether those investments were worth it, with three potent offenses on tap to open the campaign. While going through Washington's slate, it was hard to come away feeling confident about many of their W’s, even though I had them notching seven in total. The Commanders remind me a lot of the Falcons from last year: I could be wrong on nearly every game and still end up nailing their final record.
Toughest game to call: Week 11 vs. Bengals.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Jayden Daniels flashes on the Monday night stage, reminding everyone he's still the guy who (nearly) swept the OROY vote just two seasons ago.
Will the Commanders make the playoffs?
- Ali: No.
- Tom: No.
NFC NORTH
Tom's take on the Bears' season:
A 2-4 start to the year will have Bears doomers dancing about the unsustainability of last season's success, which relied plenty on takeaways and comebacks. They might even forget just how good Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams looked together, including when they were pushing the Rams to the wire in the playoffs. To me, that duo gives Chicago a pretty solid eight-win floor. After that, your expectations will probably hinge on whether or not you think the Bears can pull off two or three more, and I do: back-to-back victories over the participants in Super Bowl LX, including a prime-time road triumph over the defending champs, and a Thanksgiving Day win over Detroit to set up the first season sweep of that series for Chicago since 2021.
Toughest game to call: Week 1 at Panthers.
The Bears are more talented, but this just feels like a classic Week 1 trap, with Carolina's physicality keeping Chicago out of rhythm.
Will the Bears make the playoffs?
- Ali: Yes, as NFC North champions (No. 3 seed).
- Tom: Yes, as NFC North champions (No. 2 seed).
Tom's take on the Lions' season:
If the initial five weeks play out like I've predicted, we will know more about the Panthers' legitimacy (via a win over Detroit on Sunday night in Week 4) than we will about how close the Lions are to being NFC front-runners once more in 2026. That Dan Campbell feeling truly returns after the bye, when his squad prevails in consecutive dates with NFC North opponents for the first time since 2024. If not for some extraordinary circumstances in Weeks 10 (traveling to Munich) and 12 (facing the Bears on short rest), I might have given Detroit a nine-game winning streak bridging October to December. Beating the teams they should defeat is key to the Lions' success -- which does, I must admit, make me a little nervous, given how little that word means in the NFL, especially before Memorial Day.
Toughest game to call: Week 18 at Packers.
I find myself believing on some level in basically every NFC North team, and I realize something is going to have to give here. With the Bears and Vikings close on their heels, the Lions sweep the Packers to clinch a worst-to-first leap within their division -- something they haven't done since 1993.
Will the Lions make the playoffs?
- Ali: No.
- Tom: Yes, as a wild card (No. 7 seed).
Tom's take on the Packers' season:
I want to apologize to Packers fans, who should know I didn't set out to predict a second consecutive late-season collapse. It just sort of lined up like that. Playing the Rams in Los Angeles is a tough way to spend Thanksgiving Eve, and the assignments don't really get much easier thereafter, aside from a chance to reaffirm their spot in the NFC hierarchy above the Saints in Week 13 and remind Malik Willis, Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan of how much work they have to do to get the Dolphins to Green Bay's level in Week 15. Though I'm expecting Micah Parsons to be healthy and on the field this time, the Packers' December trip to Chicago doesn't end any better than last year's overtime loss, kick-starting a three-game skid that pushes them out of the playoffs.
Toughest game to call: Week 6 vs. Cowboys
Remember when these teams played to a 40-40 tie last fall? Of course you do. There have been some important changes to both rosters since then, including another edge rusher exchange (the Packers sent Rashan Gary to the Cowboys for a 2027 fourth-round pick), but the principals remain largely the same, and these teams continue to be grouped somewhere in the middle of the conference. Not only will I boldly predict that this rematch ends with someone winning this time, I will go a step farther and circle Green Bay at home.
Will the Packers make the playoffs?
- Ali: No (they come up just short as the No. 8 seed).
- Tom: No.
Tom's take on the Vikings' season:
Falling to 4-6 with a Week 11 loss to the Niners in Mexico City sparks unpleasant memories of last season -- which are quickly wiped out by a 6-1 finish. I realize this is peak offseason dot-connecting, but I can't resist visions of Kyler Murray (presuming he beats J.J. McCarthy for the QB1 job) giving Kevin O'Connell the exact quarterbacking upgrade this otherwise-solid roster needs to compete again. And the strong stretch run isn't just the product of scheduling luck; it includes wins over no-joke opponents like the Panthers, Patriots, Lions and Bears. So, though Minnesota barely misses the party, the season offers plenty to build on.
Toughest game to call: Week 14 at Patriots.
The Pats' search for a hero QB in the 2024 NFL Draft helped pave the way to Super Bowl LX; the Vikings' search for a hero QB in that same draft, meanwhile, has not gone as well. But in Week 14, Minnesota's prime-time road win strikes a momentary blow for the find a competent veteran signal-caller theory of team-building.
Will the Vikings make the playoffs?
- Ali: No.
- Tom: No.
TEAM-BY TEAM SEASON PICKS
NFC SOUTH
Tom's take on the Falcons' season:
The Falcons figure to raise their offensive floor with Kevin Stefanski and (possibly) Tua Tagovailoa while returning most of the key members of a solid defense, including coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. Alternating wins and losses over the first 10 weeks improves the vibes over last year's 3-7 start. If they can eke out one more following the Week 11 bye, things could really start looking up. In this scenario, though, a collection of difficult road losses (at the Vikings, at the Commanders and, most devastatingly, at the Panthers) keeps Atlanta out of the playoffs for the ninth straight season.
Toughest game to call: Week 6 vs. Bears.
I originally had one too many losing streaks for this team, which rang false for a roster that should be competitive enough to keep extended skids from happening -- especially by beating at least one contender over a three-game home stretch against the Ravens, Bears and 49ers. But which one? For now, I like the chances of Stefanski and his chosen QB over Chicago's defense, which could be smarting following a tough Week 5 loss in Green Bay.
Will the Falcons make the playoffs?
- Ali: Yes, as NFC South champions (No. 4 seed).
- Tom: No.
Tom's take on the Panthers' season:
Carolina ends up with one more win than it did last year, but that feels like the equivalent of a five-win jump, officially cementing the Panthers' membership in the tier of Teams That Must Be Taken Seriously. Importantly, the good times are spread across the season. After a 6-3 start highlighted by wins over the Lions and Broncos, they hit a three-game skid that drops them momentarily to .500, which is where Carolina really makes its bones, mounting a 3-2 finish.
Toughest game to call: Week 18 vs. Falcons.
It would not be a shock for the NFC South to go down to the wire, and while I'd give Carolina the edge over Atlanta at this point, who knows what the Falcons will look like come January?
Will the Panthers make the playoffs?
- Ali: No.
- Tom: Yes, as NFC South champions (No. 4 seed).
Tom's take on the Saints' season:
The more I think about the NFC South, the more I think every team is, really, an 8-9 team at heart. How much you expect each squad to stray from that mark in actual wins and losses depends on personal taste. I have a thing for the Panthers, but a two-to-three-win improvement would be completely reasonable for Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough. If the Saints were facing a few more non-divisional opponents like the Browns, Raiders and Giants and a few less like the Ravens, Bears and Lions, I might have been able to find my way there. Alas, in this exercise, they end up with a second consecutive 6-11 finish that they probably don't deserve.
Toughest game to call: Week 7 vs. Steelers (Paris).
I have the Steelers finishing with more wins than the Saints due in part to this inaugural Parisian throwdown, but Pittsburgh will be coming off a theoretically more rigorous assignment in Week 6 (at the Bucs) than New Orleans (at the Giants), and I could easily see the result here being flipped.
Will the Saints make the playoffs?
- Ali: No.
- Tom: No.
Tom's take on the Buccaneers' season:
I seem to fall for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs every year, and a rollicking 6-3 first half should suck me in again -- only for the bottom to fall out with another post-bye slump. The Lions, Chargers and Rams complicate things, but the main culprit is once again an inability to beat division rivals (the Saints in Week 15 and the Falcons in Week 16) down the stretch until a too-little, too-late final gasp, in this case in New Orleans. I'm not completely discounting the possibility that additions made to the defense (Rueben Bain Jr.) or improved health on the O-line keeps the Bucs viable for longer this time around, maybe giving them the chance to flip another one of those NFC South matchups or upset one of the two L.A. squads. In fact, that's a good note to tuck away for later, when November recency bias takes hold. For now, the lingering disappointment of 2025 is still obviously the most important thing to factor in here.
Toughest game to call: Week 16 at Falcons.
Kevin Stefanski vs. Baker Mayfield is definitely going to be A Thing, especially if Mayfield and Co. have already dropped Round 1 at home in Week 8. If the Bucs are able to stay healthier than they did in 2025, this one could go either way.
Will the Buccaneers make the playoffs?
- Ali: No.
- Tom: No.
NFC WEST
Ali's take on the Cardinals' season:
Despite Arizona's glut of offensive talent, it's hard to get them over the three-win hump on paper. They play in the hardest division, have the third-hardest strength of schedule and are breaking in a first-time head coach (and, potentially, a new QB). They’re simply not as balanced as their division mates, and neither their home nor away schedules offer any real reprieve. Eight of their first 11 opponents won nine games or more last year. Among the three that didn’t: Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs.
Toughest game to call: Week 10 vs. Rams.
L.A. could certainly steamroll Arizona again in this one as it did twice last year. But let's not forget when the Cards stunned Matthew Stafford & Co. with a 41-10 drubbing in their home opener two seasons ago.
Will the Cardinals make the playoffs?
- Ali: No.
- Tom: No.
Ali's take on the Rams' season:
If the Rams end the season holding the Lombardi Trophy, they’ll have earned every ounce of that sterling silver. Their schedule is brutal. They play overseas (in Australia!), on Thanksgiving Eve (a Wednesday!) and on Christmas Day (a Friday!). Their first three tilts are all in prime time, including at Denver in Week 3, which is immediately followed by a trip to Philadelphia before another iso game against Buffalo in Week 5. Their post-bye stretch, from Week 12 on, doesn’t let up even once. But if there’s any team equipped to overcome such a challenging slate, it’s Sean McVay’s club. Time will tell whether a little more immediate help would have made the difference in them securing that priceless hardware.
Toughest game to call: Week 14 at 49ers.
Division games can be particularly unpredictable, especially one against a team as good as the Niners on the heels of prime-time matchups with the Chiefs (Thursday, Week 13) and Packers (Wednesday, Week 12).
Will the Rams make the playoffs?
- Ali: Yes, as the NFC West champions (No. 1 seed).
- Tom: Yes, as a wild card (No. 5 seed).
Ali's take on the 49ers' season:
The Niners travel a lot this season, with trips to Australia, Atlanta, Mexico and New York on the itinerary. I worry all those miles will catch up with this squad down the stretch, particularly when mid-December hits: Mixed-to-poor results against the Rams, Chargers, Chiefs and Eagles (Weeks 14-17) have the potential to undo any early-season gains. San Francisco weathered so many injuries last year en route to 12 wins, so I’d be silly to rule out back-to-back playoff berths for Kyle Shanahan’s squad. But unlike last year, I see the 49ers clawing for a wild-card spot -- not contending for a division title -- when Week 18 rolls around.
Toughest game to call: Week 1 vs. Rams in Melbourne.
It's a Week 1 division game taking place on a different continent.
Will the 49ers make the playoffs?
- Ali: Yes, as a wild card (No. 6 seed).
- Tom: Yes, as a wild card (No. 6 seed).
Ali's take on the Seahawks' season:
The reigning champs have just two early afternoon East Coast games this season after having five last year. That would seem like an improvement but for the fact that the ‘Hawks were flawless in that window in 2025. Their biggest hurdle appears to be Weeks 4-8 -- a five-game stretch that includes four double-digit-win teams from a year ago plus the Chiefs. If they can reach their Week 11 bye two to three games over .500, they should have the necessary cushion to survive their final four contests – which include home/away affairs with the division-rival Rams. Given the increased level of competition, a slight step back after a truly magical season seems right for this talented squad.
Toughest game to call: Week 6 at Broncos.
Traveling to Mile High on a short week, after taking on the Niners and with the Chiefs on deck, could spell trouble for Seattle.
Will the Seahawks make the playoffs?
- Ali: Yes, as a wild card (No. 5 seed).
- Tom: Yes, as the NFC West champion (No. 1 seed).