2026 NFL Schedule: Predicting every game, final record for each AFC team

The 2026 NFL schedule is here! This means it's time for one of the greatest guilty pleasures of the offseason: running down each newly unveiled slate and counting up the Ws and Ls.

Of course, picking the winner of every NFL game in May is, obviously, an absurd project. We are still months away from meaningful on-field action, and we're going to learn so much more about, well, everyone in the league between now and September. Going 272-for-272 is not the point. (Ali strongly disagrees; he plays for keeps.)

No, we're here to A) set the stakes for the path each team is facing coming out of the offseason and B) speculate feverishly about how the landscape will evolve between Weeks 1 and 18.

Who has a shot at double-digit wins? Who's ready to angle for a postseason spot? Who might steal away more victories than expected? Join us on a weird, wild journey into the possible NFL of the near future below.

TEAM-BY TEAM SEASON PICKS

AFC East: BUF | MIA | NE | NYJ
AFC North: BAL | CIN | CLE | PIT
AFC South: HOU | IND | JAC | TEN
AFC West: DEN | KC | LAC | LV

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN
NFC South: ATL | CAR | NO | TB
NFC West: ARI | LAR | SEA | SF

AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AFC EAST

Ali's take on the Bills' season:

The schedule-makers are throwing first-time coach Joe Brady into the fire, handing him one of the tougher first quarters in the entire league -- at least in terms of his competition. The silver lining in the Bills' opening salvo, though, is that he'll enjoy a three-game home stand to break in new Highmark Stadium. In fact, while the Bills have to face the likes of the Ravens, Chiefs and Bears after the team's Week 7 bye, they'll do so in their fancy new digs. And as taxing as back-to-back West Coast trips (Weeks 5-6) might be, or how tough Weeks 12-16 look right now, that late-season gauntlet is at least sandwiched between both rounds with the Jets and Dolphins. (In case you were wondering, Josh Allen is 16-4 straight up versus NY/Miami since 2021.) Although I expect the Bills to reclaim the division, the NFC North could jeopardize their spot in the overall AFC hierarchy.

Toughest game to call: Week 15 vs. Bears.

Taking the Bears on a short week in Buffalo in Josh's month (21-4 in December since 2020) could absolutely backfire. Then again, Ben Johnson's team seems to be at its best when the win probability is spiking in the opponent's favor.

Will the Bills make the playoffs?

• Ali: Yes, as the AFC East champion (No. 1 seed).
• Tom: Yes, as the AFC East champion (No. 3 seed).

Ali's take on the Dolphins' season:

We've known for a while based on their opponents that the Fins were in for a turbulent ride this season. But when you actually see their schedule from top to bottom, somehow their prospects look even worse. This franchise, at Square 1 in its rebuild, will face one contender after another seemingly the entire way, with its final six opponents all playoff teams from a year ago. While wins may be in short supply for Miami in 2026, if the team's promising young core can consistently progress -- and Malik Willis can prove he's The Guy -- perhaps they'll accumulate enough moral victories to advance this organization in transition to Square 2.

Toughest game to call: Week 1 at Raiders.

For two teams undergoing such significant year-over-year transformations, coming out on top to kick off the campaign would generate a massive confidence boost for the victor.

Will the Dolphins make the playoffs?

• Ali: No.
• Tom: No.

Ali's take on the Patriots' season:

Week 1's Super Bowl rematch should tell us plenty about the 2026 Patriots. Perhaps I'm a prisoner of the moment, but I'm not convinced they've done enough to prevent a repeat of February's beatdown. As important as first impressions are, though, New England's AFC title defense will truly be tested near midseason, when the club finds the caliber of its opponents to be far more difficult this season than it was during the same stretch last year. We're going against the grain here in slashing the Pats' win total nearly in half from last season's mark. But outside of their doubleheaders with the Jets and Dolphins (and it's worth noting that division games are often weird), there are few matchups on their calendar in which they look like the heavy favorite right now.

Toughest game to call: Week 7 at Bears.

A loss on Thursday night in Chicago sends the Pats on a four-game spiral in my picks. However, if they end up winning in the Windy City, I could see it serving as a catalyst for a mini-run.

Will the Patriots make the playoffs?

• Ali: No.
• Tom: No.

Ali's take on the Jets' season:

With an influx of top-tier young talent, a new (familiar) QB1, legit playmakers at RB1 and WR1, and a rock-solid O-line, New York could make Tom and I look silly with our less-than-optimistic predictions. (For the record, I don't feel great about the three three-game skids.) How the Jets fare over the first quarter of the season -- an emotionally charged opener at Tennessee (one of three road games in the first four weeks) followed by back-to-back-to-back contests against the NFC North's finest -- could forecast the kind of season Aaron Glenn will (or will not) enjoy in Year 2. The Jets simply can't afford to start slow -- not with the AFC West's three-headed monster, and home-and-away tilts with the Bills and Pats, still to come.

Toughest game to call: Week 14 vs. Broncos.

Although I was too cowardly to make them official, I think New York is in play for one or two week-rattling upsets. Given the Jets will have an extra week to prepare, might the Broncos be the victim of one of them?

Will the Jets make the playoffs?

• Ali: No.
• Tom: No.

AFC NORTH

Tom's take on the Ravens' season:

I saw the Ravens fall apart in 2025; I know they had Real Problems. Lamar Jackson was banged up, no one could rush the passer and the entire operation -- including the QB himself -- looked utterly ordinary for the first time in recent memory. But there are other recent memories, too, like Jackson's brilliant run to the 2023 MVP award and multiple seasons of suffocating defense in Baltimore. At this point in the year, it is real tempting to think the Ravens' major additions -- a hot new Harbaugh-molded defensive coach, a premium pass rusher and a tailor-made rookie O-lineman -- will push this team back toward the front of the AFC pack. This might be the most good on paper projection of an extremely on paper exercise, with plenty of ways to go wrong on the field, but for now, I'm buying in.

Toughest game to call: Week 12 at Texans.

This could be a major inflection point in the AFC, if Houston builds on last year's gains and the Ravens don't magically solve everything while breaking in a first-time HC. Whether the Ravens hang tough or show that their roster needs more work next offseason, we should learn plenty about Jesse Minter and crew in this one.

Will the Ravens make the playoffs?

• Ali: Yes, as the AFC North champion (No. 3 seed).
• Tom: Yes, as the AFC North champion (No. 4 seed)

Tom's take on the Bengals' season:

For three straight seasons now, the Bengals have followed a similar path to ruination, with injuries and counterproductive defense working together to hold Joe Burrow back. It wouldn't be unreasonable to cap them at around eight wins again, knowing that the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen and rookie Cashius Howell to the defensive front aren't all guaranteed to hit. But, man, Burrow is turning 30 this December, and the last time he was in the playoffs, he was 26. Let's get him into the postseason via a couple of mildly surprising victories, including over the Jags in Week 4 and against the Ravens on New Year's Eve.

Toughest game to call: Week 11 at Commanders.

Burrow is 0-2 against the Commanders, though he came close to beating them in a 38-33 barnburner on a Monday night in Cincinnati two years ago. If you are feeling optimistic about both of these teams bouncing back from tough seasons -- and I am, though more so for Burrow's crew -- this could be another high-scoring toss-up.

Will the Bengals make the playoffs?

• Ali: Yes, as a wild card (No. 5 seed).
• Tom: Yes, as a wild card (No. 6 seed).

Tom's take on the Browns' season:

As long as Myles Garrett is part of the equation, I would expect the Browns' defense to be competitive again, even if it needs an adjustment period to transition from Jim Schwartz to new coordinator Mike Rutenberg. The offense should be better, with an improved line and receiver room and a refreshed vision from new head coach Todd Monken, but there's a long way to go from scraping the bottom (as Cleveland did last season) to good enough to help the D win more games than last year. In fact, knowing the state of the QB room, I've pegged them for a step down in record. Some intra-division AFC North funny business ends up being Cleveland's saving grace.

Toughest game to call: Week 4 vs. Steelers.

It feels bold to give Cleveland its first win of the season in prime time against Pittsburgh; unsettled as the Steelers might seem right now, they have averaged six more victories over the past two years thanks to a real edge in talent and experience. And yet, somehow, the Browns are 6-1 at home in this matchup going back to 2019, a record that seems simultaneously flukey and impossible to ignore. Ultimately, their young core keeps this counterintuitive imbalance going.

Will the Browns make the playoffs?

• Ali: No.
• Tom: No.

Tom's take on the Steelers' season:

I still don't totally know what to make of Mike Tomlin's ability to avoid posting a losing record in any of his 19 seasons running the show in Pittsburgh. As someone who has personally cheered on many truly hopeless sports teams over the years, I sincerely admired the Steelers' uncannily consistent competitiveness under Tomlin. Then again, how different is finishing slightly above .500 from finishing slightly below? In the timeline I spin here, they find out, thanks to a brutal second-half stretch that offers no room to scratch out their customary three-to-four unlikely wins. Maybe the end of this non-losing streak -- which I have to believe was going to run out someday, no matter who was on the sideline -- gives new coach Mike McCarthy and GM Omar Khan an excuse to really shake things up in Pittsburgh for the first time in a long time.

Toughest game to call: Week 16 vs. Panthers.

Both of these teams made one-and-done playoff appearances last season, but the Panthers' was an undeniable triumph, with their narrow loss to the Rams marking their return to the postseason for the first time since 2017. Unlike the Steelers, they've experienced life at the bottom, and now they have a chance to build on a real, honest-to-god upward trajectory. I'll give Pittsburgh the edge at home for the time being, but this pick has the potential to look real goofy by the time Week 16 actually comes around.

Will the Steelers make the playoffs?

• Ali: No.
• Tom: No.

TEAM-BY TEAM SEASON PICKS

AFC East: BUF | MIA | NE | NYJ
AFC North: BAL | CIN | CLE | PIT
AFC South: HOU | IND | JAC | TEN
AFC West: DEN | KC | LAC | LV

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN
NFC South: ATL | CAR | NO | TB
NFC West: ARI | LAR | SEA | SF

AFC SOUTH

Tom's take on the Texans' season:

I knew I was high on the Texans coming off their strong 2025, but I didn't know I was this high. Will C.J. Stroud and the offense figure out a way to be consistently competitive? That remains a blank spot in the forecast, and it is going to heavily influence the viability of my predicted record. The thing is, I became smitten last season with Houston's defense, which was even more dominant, in some respects, than the one that helped power Seattle's championship run, finishing first in the NFL in yards allowed per game (277.2) and defensive EPA per play (-0.18), per Next Gen Stats. I can see that unit pushing the Texans into their bye with a muscular 6-1 mark, after which a victory or two against one of the remaining non-divisional playoff contenders on the schedule could nudge them past 12 wins for the first time in franchise history.

Toughest game to call: Week 1 vs. Bills.

It's only one game, but this really could set the course of Houston's 2026, if Stroud keeps the ball moving enough to prevail over Josh Allen. From the jump, my conviction in the Texans was put to the test, and apparently, I'm all in.

Will the Texans make the playoffs?

• Ali: Yes, as the AFC South champion (No. 4 seed).
• Tom: Yes, as a wild card (No. 5 seed).

Tom's take on the Colts' season:

I don't feel great about this one, on at least two counts. First, the Colts have won at least eight games in each of Shane Steichen's three seasons at the helm. Second, they spent the first two and a half months of last season making their doubters look quite dumb, rampaging to an 8-2 start. Unfortunately for them, the initial half of 2026 looks closer to the closing stretch of '25, when Indy lost seven straight. Even if Daniel Jones weren't coming off a torn Achilles, it would be difficult to pick out too many Ws before the Colts' Week 13 bye. A win over the Cowboys kickstarts a little 3-1 run that peters out with a five-game losing streak, including frustrating Ls in Nashville and Cleveland.

Toughest game to call: Week 4 vs. Commanders (Tottenham).

It's not surprising that I've had difficulty gauging multiple games in which the mysterious Commanders are the opponent. The last time Jones went abroad to play football was also the last time Jones played well in a Colts victory, completing 73 percent of his passes to help Indy survive in overtime against the Falcons in Berlin. Maybe the transatlantic flight will snap him back into QB1 mode, and Washington will still be looking for its feet. Or maybe -- and this is where I land at the moment -- the Commanders will have it together enough for their superior talent to prevail.

Will the Colts make the playoffs?

• Ali: No.
• Tom: No.

Tom's take on the Jaguars' season:

So here we have two AFC South teams finishing with 13 wins in the same season for the first time in the division's history. What a world. And the Jaguars get there by sweeping the Texans for the first time since Blake Bortles pulled it off in 2017, giving them the edge in seeding. This year, the Jags get a leg up by welcoming Houston to Wembley in Week 6 one week after Jacksonville's initial international game against the Eagles in Tottenham. I was initially inclined to peg the Jaguars for regression -- until I went back and refreshed my memory of their performance last season against teams that made the playoffs, as part of my research for the …

Toughest game to call: Week 9 at Ravens.

These teams last encountered each other in December of 2023, when Baltimore was a juggernaut and Trevor Lawrence was still trying to find out who he could become at the NFL level. This seemed like a good time for a reality check on Jacksonville's growth, except for that pesky background info I mentioned in the previous blurb: the Jags' 5-3 record and generally superior performance (+28 point differential, 4:08 average advantage in time of possession) against 2025 postseason qualifiers. They also finished third in the NFL in EPA per play on defense, with a workable 12th-place ranking in EPA per play on offense, per Next Gen Stats. In other words, I think they're for real, hence my early faith in them pulling off this prime-time win over another AFC contender.

Will the Jaguars make the playoffs?

• Ali: No (but they're right there).
• Tom: Yes, as the AFC South champion (No. 1 seed).

Tom's take on the Titans' season:

Upon seeing the Titans' schedule as a whole, I realized I was being a little too quick to pencil them in as a W for other teams. It is reasonable to expect Robert Saleh to coax a stronger performance out of Tennessee in his second go-around as a head coach, especially with the real improvements made to the roster this offseason in the draft (Carnell Tate, Keldric Faulk, Anthony Hill) and on the veteran market (John Franklin-Myers, Jermaine Johnson II). We don't know how much Cam Ward will advance, but I do have faith in him at least doubling the win total from his rookie year -- and that might be too conservative.

Toughest game to call: Week 7 vs. Browns.

Of the six victories I gave Tennessee, the Week 13 triumph over Washington might generate the most buzz -- but proving he can play winning football against Myles Garrett for the second year in a row might be more important to Ward's development.

Will the Titans make the playoffs?

• Ali: No.
• Tom: No.

AFC WEST

Ali's take on the Broncos' season:

Is Jaylen Waddle the missing piece in Denver's championship puzzle? Based on the Broncos' otherwise quiet offseason, they sure seem to think so. One of the league's most complete teams, Denver's season will be a tale of two halves: Can the Broncos hold up against an early-season onslaught that includes bouts with the Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers and Seahawks, as well as both head-to-heads with the Chiefs? If they're still standing by their Week 10 bye (one-score wins are still wins!), their schedule sets up nicely for a second-half run.

Toughest game to call: Week 2 vs. Jaguars.

The Jags blew out the Broncos at Mile High last December, hanging 34 points on the league's second-ranked defense (the most by any Broncos opponent all season). Something tells me Sean Payton's squad will be extra motivated for this one.

Will the Broncos make the playoffs?

• Ali: Yes, as a wild card (No. 7 seed).
• Tom: No.

Ali's take on the Chiefs' season:

Patrick Mahomes, still rehabbing his torn ACL, couldn't have asked for a more favorable setup to begin the campaign: consecutive home games followed by matchups with Miami and Vegas. The early bye (Week 5) could actually be a boon for Kansas City, allowing the team to regroup before meaningful meetings with the Chargers, Seahawks and Broncos (Round 2). Although I could see things getting dicey for Andy Reid & Friends when the schedule gets stickier again in Q3 (consecutive away games against the Bills, Rams and Bengals), I think the Chiefs will build a strong enough foundation through October to return to postseason football come January.

Kansas City's projected 6-0 open is wholly dependent on Mahomes looking like his vintage self in Week 1. If the two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl champ isn't under center -- or not quite right -- when the season kicks off, throw this projection in the Missouri River.

Toughest game to call: Week 1 vs. Broncos.

Will No. 15 be in the huddle or on the sidelines when Kansas City's starting offense takes the field?

Will the Chiefs make the playoffs?

• Ali: Yes, as the AFC West champion (No. 2 seed).
• Tom: Yes, as a wild card (No. 7 seed).

Ali's take on the Raiders' season:

Will Vegas' offseason spending spree vastly improve its defense? When will Klint Kubiak notch his first win as a head coach? How short of a leash will Kirk Cousins have as QB1? And how quickly will Fernando Mendoza acclimate to NFL game speed if/when he gets his chance? Is Maxx Crosby still on the team after the trade deadline? Simply too many questions surround this squad to project a winning season, but it's possible if all the new pieces coalesce quickly that the Raiders rally off a couple more wins than we think.

Toughest game to call: Week 3 at Saints.

This is less of a knock on New Orleans and more of a show of faith in Cousins securing one more signature performance against a familiar opponent.

Will the Raiders make the playoffs?

• Ali: No.
• Tom: No.

Ali's take on the Chargers' season:

Opening the campaign against two teams with first-year head coaches projects positively for Jim Harbaugh's group, whose Super Bowl aspirations is limited only by its health. After a snake-bitten season, the Chargers are replenished, battle-tested and talented enough to win every game on their calendar. Although I have the ball bouncing the wrong way in several of their high-profile affairs, I could just as easily see L.A. at 13-4 as I do 10-7. What ultimately matters most for Justin Herbert (and his O-line), though, is that they're intact when January arrives. If the Bolts are fully charged, they could (finally) go the distance.

Toughest game to call: Week 8 at Rams.

It's Round 3 in the Battle for L.A., and both the Chargers and Rams have reason to think they'll take the rubber match. But only one of these squads will be coming off their bye week, which is why the Bolts have the edge.

Will the Chargers make the playoffs?

• Ali: Yes, as a wild card (No. 6 seed).
• Tom: Yes, as the AFC West champion (No. 2 seed).

TEAM-BY TEAM SEASON PICKS

AFC East: BUF | MIA | NE | NYJ
AFC North: BAL | CIN | CLE | PIT
AFC South: HOU | IND | JAC | TEN
AFC West: DEN | KC | LAC | LV

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN
NFC South: ATL | CAR | NO | TB
NFC West: ARI | LAR | SEA | SF

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