Week 8 NFL MVP tracker: Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Caleb Williams on verge of crashing race

Goff has always been an uber-accurate passer, but he’s taken it to another level this season. His pinpoint accuracy and ability to process defenses quickly and get the ball to his playmakers have spearheaded a potent Lions attack. Goff has had a trove of throws with an infinitesimal window to hit. He put it right on the money. Boom. Move the chains.

Goff leads the NFL with 298 passing yards per game and a 112.5 passer rating. He’s No. 3 in EPA per dropback (0.24), and third in success rate (50.8%). Despite defenses knowing exactly where he’s going to be in the pocket -- Goff sports a league-low 6.3% of passes on the move -- he’s diced up defenses. The highlight of Goff’s early-season stat barrage is his 14 TDs to zero INTs. The no-picks thing can be fluky; sometimes defenders drop easy ones. However, it speaks to Goff’s ability to play in rhythm within the offense and through pressure. On pure pass plays, excluding sacks and scrambles, Goff has an 82.2 pass EPA. No. 2 is Trevor Lawrence at 59.6. That is a massive gap. Other QBs might have more scrambling prowess, but Goff has been like Zeus with lightning bolts this season.

It’s easy to point to the talent around him, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, etc. But it takes a next-level QB to distribute to the right playmaker on time like Goff has this season. If Goff performs against Brian Flores' Vikings defense on Sunday, he’s making the top five, easily.

Well, hello, Joe.

After a grisly first half in Baltimore on Sunday, Burrow lit Maryland on fire to the tune of 16-of-18 passing for 249 yards and four (FOUR!) touchdowns for a perfect 158.3 passer rating. The performance reminded everyone how explosive this Bengals offense can be when Burrow is kept clean -- 15 of 19 passes for 173 yards for the game from a clean pocket, per Next Gen Stats.

Through the first six games of the season, Burrow got the ball out quickly, averaging 2.57 seconds to throw, tied for second-fastest among QBs with at least 100 attempts, and 7.4 air yards per attempt. In Week 7, he was at 3.06 seconds to throw, per NGS, with an 8.8 air-YPA. When Burrow has time and can let things develop, with the weapons at his disposal, the Bengals' offense is as deadly as any in the league.

Cincy entered the year attempting to tweak its approach, using more under-center work and play action. I’m not suggesting they should scrap that plan, but it’s notable that in the second half on Sunday, he was under center for a single pass play -- 16-yard red-zone TD to Drew Sample -- when he lit up the Ravens.

Burrow has been ripping accurate passes from the pocket all season, leading in completion percentage but trailing other MVP candidates in advanced metrics (sixth in EPA/DB, seventh in success rate, fifth in CPOE). But if Sunday’s outing was more than just him skewering a defense that has had issues, look out.

Williams has taken another transformational step forward in his second season under head coach Ben Johnson. All of a sudden, the 2024 No. 1 overall pick can move the offense without relying solely on big plays. Entering the season, we wondered if the Bears QB could be accurate enough on a down-to-down, station-to-station level. His 71.0 completion rate is second only to Burrow and a 12.9% leap from where he finished last year. The knock is that his air-yards per target has also sunk to 6.2, tied for second-lowest in the league with Patrick Mahomes. However, in Week 7 against New England, he posted a 7.3 air-yards per attempt average and was willing to hold onto the ball a bit longer. As he becomes better at combining the quick-throw need with the explosive attempts, his superpowers will only grow under Johnson.

When he’s been on the field, Williams has shined, ranking second in EPA per dropback (0.26), behind only Josh Allen, third in Completion Percentage Over Expected (5.8%), fifth in win probability added (93.6%), while avoiding some of the negative plays that have plagued the QB in the past (1 INT; 50.0% success rate).

Frankly, the main reason I don’t have Williams in the top five of my MVP rankings already is the three games he missed due to a Week 2 hamstring injury. If he stays healthy, makes the mundane plays look easy, and splashes the big plays, the Bears will hum, and Williams will get his flowers.

The bye week was good for Allen, who leapfrogs to the top despite not playing. It was only a matter of time, however, before the Bills star QB moved to the front of the line. He’s been ridiculously good and remains the game's most entertaining playmaker at the position. Allen leads all QBs with a 0.29 EPA per dropback, leads the pack with an 8.8 yards per attempt average, and his success rate of 51.7% is No. 2 (minimum 100 pass attempts). Add in his rushing ability (240 yards, eight TDs), and he continues to carry a Bills team whose defense has struggled mightily. Allen’s comical 229.1% Win Probability Added is 111.1 more than the next closest QB.

I said last week I didn’t want to penalize Purdy for one bad half without his main receivers. Make it six quarters or poor play after Sunday's showing. With Mike Evans out, and Jordan Watkins his No. 1 receiver, Purdy struggled against Atlanta in the 49ers' first loss of the season.

If it were simply a bunch of drops or missed plays by his WR corps, I could excuse the QB’s game. However, he was clearly off-kilter for most of the contest and threw far more off-the-mark balls than he has all season. Even with the clunker, I’m not sinking Purdy’s chances. He still leads QBs in success rate (53.0%), per Next Gen Stats, and ranks third in passer rating (110.1), fourth in EPA/DB (0.23) and Pass EPA (54.3), and sixth in CPOE (4.2%). If he gets his wideouts back after the bye and returns to form, he could reclaim the top spot.

In a head-to-head matchup on Sunday night with Kenneth Walker III for the current best non-QB honor, Smith-Njigba dominated in the Seahawks' win. He was once again uncoverable, catching nine passes for 150 yards and a TD. JSN repeatedly schooled Chiefs rookie CB Mansoor Delane in the ways of elite route running. The output slingshot the wide receiver back above the pace to blast past Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record of 1,964 yards. And he could do it in 16 games at his current pace. A 17th tilt would put JSN in a position to break the 2,000-yard mark, which he’d probably need to knock off all the QBs for MVP honors. Given the makeup of the Seahawks' offense, however, with a currently struggling run game, if he hits 2K and carries Seattle back to the postseason, he’d be worthy of the award.

I’m not going to completely overreact to one bad game and completely wipe out Walker's previous five tilts from memory. Yes, Walker’s 14-rush, 36-yard output against Seattle probably kills his chances of reaching the heights needed to win the award. However, the totality of his work this season still puts him atop all RBs in yards per game (116.8) and yards per attempt (5.8). He also remains the missed tackles forced king (49). How he performs in Week 8 against a Denver squad he ripped for 173 yards and a score in Week 1 will tell if K9 clings to his spot or falls out.

I considered replacing Lawrence with Goff, Burrow or Williams considering their play of late. But Lawrence didn’t fumble on the Jaguars' bye, so I’m keeping him here at least one more week. Lawrence continues to play well in Liam Coen’s scheme and has made some onion-throws early in the season. Coming out of the bye, he’ll need to impress because he’s got a slew of QBs coming for his spot in the top five.