NFL Week 8 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup analysis for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 8 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 23.

SUNDAY, OCT. 26

Why Brooke picked the Falcons: The Dolphins are spiraling. Benched in the fourth quarter of last week's lopsided loss to Cleveland, Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL with 11 giveaways and has a career-low 82.8 passer rating this season. Tua remains the starter for the Dolphins and will have his hands full against the Falcons' top-ranked pass defense and improved pass rush. Expect to see a heavy dose of De'Von Achane, who has the sixth-most scrimmage yards in the league and also leads the team in receptions (32). He's doing it all for Miami offensively right now -- like Bijan Robinson for Atlanta. He accounts for 40.5 percent of the Falcons' scrimmage yards this season (highest share in the NFL) and leads the league with 152.3 scrimmage yards per game. Against a Dolphins defense that ranks last in the league against the run, 26th in total yards allowed and 29th in points allowed, the Falcons should feel pretty good offensively -- even if there are some areas to iron out in the pass game. This tilt will be a good opportunity for Atlanta to really get right before a roadie against the Patriots and the Berlin game vs. the Colts.

Why Dan picked the Ravens: I’m not buying into the concept that being desperate will make the Ravens significantly better than what we saw from them in the first few weeks of the season, when Lamar Jackson was healthy. The expected return of Jackson from a hamstring injury in Week 8 should help the offense return to the form it displayed in Weeks 1-3, when Baltimore averaged 37 points per game. The problem is John Harbaugh’s crew still lost two of those three contests and is allowing a league-worst 32.3 points per game. Can the defense do its job against a burgeoning Bears squad that has run for 367 yards in the last two weeks (the most of any club in that span)? The anticipated return of another Raven on the mend, Roquan Smith, should be useful in that effort, but I remain unconvinced. There is shootout potential here, and I still like Jackson over Caleb Williams in that scenario. I’ll give the home team the edge in this one, but not by much.

Why Gennaro picked the Bills: Both teams want to run the football -- the Bills lead the league in rushing yards per game (151.0) while the Panthers rank third (140.1) -- but only one has demonstrated the ability to stop the run. With Derrick Brown back in place as the beastly centerpiece of Ejiro Evero’s defensive front, Carolina ranks eighth in rush D (92.6 ypg), having given up a grand total of 131 ground yards (at just 2.5 per carry) during the team’s current three-game win streak. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s been a sieve against the run all season, allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (156.3) and the most rushing yards per play (5.8). Consequently, I like the home team to win the ground war and keep the game close, regardless of whether it's Bryce Young (ankle) or Andy Dalton under center. At the end of the day, though, the Bills have a 6-foot-5, 237-pound trump card in Josh Allen. The reigning MVP hasn’t been playing like a reigning MVP of late, taking back-to-back losses before last week’s bye. But this only reinforces the notion that we get a fresh, feisty performance from a man who’s never lost three straight NFL games.

Why Tom picked the Bengals: They have Joe Flacco. What else do you need to know? In less time than it would take to ship a brand new striped jersey bearing his name, the 40-year-old joined the team and steadied Cincinnati's quarterback situation, lifting one of the major drags on an offense that is otherwise built to soar. It's truly nice to know there will be someone at the reins for the remainder of Joe Burrow's absence who can capably feed Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, saving the Bengals -- and us -- from having to watch their receiving talents go to waste for another year. As for the Jets, well: They are in quarterback hell. What else do you need to know? Wherever you stand on Justin Fields, he isn't the first signal-caller to face hard times in Jersey, as a certain player on the opposite sideline well knows. Whether Fields or Tyrod Taylor starts, if the Jets are without Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner, it's hard to see them giving Flacco and Co. much of a fight in Cincinnati, regardless of Trey Hendrickson's status.

Why Ali picked the 49ers: Robert Saleh held a defensive masterclass last weekend, with his band of unheralded defenders shutting down Bijan Robinson and the rest of the Falcons’ flock of first-rounders. One of the league's best players was limited to just 4.6 yards per touch -- three full yards shy of his season average entering the game (7.7) -- by a bunch of guys I’m confident few outside of the Bay Area had even heard of prior to Sunday night. Kyle Shanahan was similarly impressive on the offensive side, setting Christian McCaffrey up for a historic showing versus the previously top-ranked defense (now No. 2). So, just incredible coaching and execution all the way around for San Francisco.

... Now for the jarring transition to the Texans’ Week 7 performance. Head-scratching play calls, missed blocks, drops, penalties -- Houston’s offensive issues ran deep in Seattle. Thank goodness for DeMeco Ryans’ defense, which, outside of a couple very costly mistakes, was predictably outstanding. Monday night’s game proved to be a microcosm (albeit an extreme one) of what we’ve seen from Houston so far this year: world-class defense undone by confounding offense. It’s how a team can rank first in points allowed per game through the first seven weeks of the season (14.7) but still have a losing record -- a first in NFL history. (Nice pull, Dante!) So, as much as it might feel like I’m overreacting to Monday’s meltdown, it’s simply too hard to trust the Texans’ one-sided outfit (especially if Nico Collins is a no-go) against a team that’s as well-prepared and balanced as the 49ers. Shanahan and Saleh dispatch their former understudy, improving to 4-1 on the road.

Why Gennaro picked the Patriots: Pushing the ball downfield with staggering precision while completing an NFL-best 75.2 percent of his passes, Drake Maye appears to be breaking out into superstardom. After flashing enticing traits and endearing moxie during a loss-littered rookie campaign, the 23-year-old is authoritatively spearheading wins in Year 2, using his arm and legs to flummox opposing defenses. Granted, those opposing defenses include a lot of duds. Of New England’s first seven opponents, only one (Carolina) ranks higher than 15th in points or yards allowed. All of which sets the scene for this intriguing matchup. Cleveland ranks first in total defense (256.1 ypg). As the only D in the league with top-five marks against the pass (173.7 ypg) and run (82.4 ypg), this Myles Garrett-led unit looks like the kind of impediment that could bring Maye back to earth. Frankly, the young signal-caller has started this season on an unsustainable heater, particularly with the deep ball. On throws of 20-plus air yards, he owns a perfect passer rating of 158.3, more than doubling his mark from 2024 (74.3). Some regression is in order. That said, I still believe Maye ultimately will do enough to guide New England to its first five-game win streak in four years, thanks in part to a one-dimensional Cleveland offense that needs rookie RB Quinshon Judkins to play like Jim Brown in order to remain competitive.

Why Dan picked the Eagles: I believe the reigning Super Bowl champions have too much pride to allow a division rival to eat their lunch for the second time in three weeks, especially with this game at the Linc, where they’re 28-6 since the start of the 2022 season (including playoffs). That doesn’t mean the Giants won’t put up a fight. They must be eager to remove the awful taste of last week’s epic collapse in Denver from their mouths, and perhaps any wavering confidence is mitigated by the fact they so soundly defeated Philly two weeks ago. The Eagles are going to have to take care of the ball and perform better on third downs -- on both sides of the ball -- than they did in the Week 6 loss to New York to avoid heading into the bye on the heels of being swept by the G-Men for the first time since 2007. Don’t let the 5-2 record fool you into thinking Philadelphia doesn’t have its issues. Nick Sirianni’s squad has a -436 yards margin, which is the worst by a team 5-2 or better through the first seven games since the 2000 Lions, per NFL Research. I expect a good battle.

Why Tom picked the Buccaneers: As much as I've enjoyed Baker Mayfield this season, I have to admit it: Not everything about Tampa's week-to-week fate comes down to his ability to singlehandedly will his team to victory. Very often, in fact, the other side has something to do with it. Like on Monday, when the Lions provided a reality check on just how much one QB with a snakebitten supporting cast can accomplish against a Super Bowl contender. The Saints look much more like your typical victims of Bucs flimflammery this season. New Orleans ranks near the bottom of the NFL in most categories and is looking at the worst kind of quarterback question: whether to replace a developing youngster doing his best in a limited offense (Spencer Rattler) with a rookie who couldn't win the top job in camp (Tyler Shough). That's not to say this will be a breezy day at the office for Baker. (Hey, look at that -- I guess it does always come back around to him somehow!) The Bucs will still be without multiple key players, and after watching Mayfield miss throws against the Lions, I do wonder if the superhero act takes too heavy a toll, especially with Mike Evans now brutally out of the long-term picture. Then there's the spice factor of the divisional rivalry, which does always make things interesting. I just don't know if it will be interesting enough for the Saints to snare an upset.

Why Brooke picked the Broncos: Denver doesn't have much time to celebrate its historic comeback and brush off some midweek drama, with MVP candidate Dak Prescott and Dallas' top-ranked offense coming to town. Prescott has been on a tear, posting NFL highs in pass yards, pass TDs and pass first downs since Week 2. He's had at least three pass TDs with no INTs in four straight games, finding his weapons with ease on the regular. However, he has yet to face a defense as stout as this Broncos unit, which boasts a relentless, elite pass rush with a trio of players in the top five in both QB hits and sacks this season (Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen and Jonathon Cooper). Dak has benefitted from an O-line that has protected him well in 2025. In the five games he was sacked one or fewer times, he's thrown 13 TDs with no INTs and a 117.6 passer rating. In the two games Dak was sacked at least twice, however, he threw for three TDs with three INTs and an 89.6 passer rating. The back end of this matchup offers the same intrigue, with the Dallas trio of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson lighting up defenses. But again, those three have yet to face a group like Denver's, which has allowed one receiver to gain 100-plus receiving yards while giving up one TD to an opposing wideout. There are dozens of other storylines here: Javonte Williams revenge game. Bo Nix vs. the Cowboys' league-worst defense. The Broncos owning an eight-game home winning streak, while the Cowboys are 1-3 on the road in 2025. And might Brandon Aubrey get a chance to kick an all-timer in the thin Denver air?

Whichever unit wins when Dallas' offense and Denver's defense are on the field should decide this one. I'm taking the Broncos to prevail at home in another close one with some fourth-quarter heroics. Get your popcorn ready.

Why Gennaro picked the Colts: With an NFL-worst point differential of -96, Tennessee has been a brutal watch in 2025. Thus explains the head coach getting fired six weeks into his second season. It’s been rough, but the Titans have featured one diamond: DT Jeffery Simmons. In the first six weeks of this season, Simmons easily played the most snaps of any interior defensive lineman (320, per Next Gen Stats), racking up top-two marks at the position in sacks (4.5), QB pressures (23), tackles (28) and stops (23). On an overmatched team with a rookie quarterback and porous defense, Simmons often felt like the only thing saving Tennessee from complete oblivion -- until this past Sunday’s game against New England, when the 6-4, 305-pounder suffered a hamstring injury in the first quarter. The Titans led 10-3 when Simmons left the game, but the Patriots went on to palindrome the home team, 31-13. Simmons didn’t practice on Wednesday, with interim head coach Mike McCoy calling him “week to week.” That leads me to surmise he’ll miss this game against the Colts -- who, by the way, boast the league’s best point differential at +92. Indianapolis already beat this Titans team by three touchdowns in Nashville, and that was with Simmons in the lineup. So, what should we expect this time around, with the Colts playing in the comfy confines of Lucas Oil Stadium and Simmons nursing a bad hammy? More juice for Jonathan Taylor’s MVP campaign.

Why Tom picked the Packers: Both sides here can be frustratingly flaky, but Green Bay seems to be in a better place generally, outperforming Pittsburgh in points, yards and EPA per play on both offense and defense. And those advantages are what I'm going to cling to instead of allowing myself to be seduced by the intangible factors that might otherwise lure me into choosing the Steelers. Like Mike Tomlin's maddening knack for squeezing out inexplicable victories. Or whatever you want to make of Aaron Rodgers' first chance to play against the team that shaped his Hall of Fame path -- and his denial that he will be extra motivated to beat the decision-makers who helped usher him out the door. I fear Tomlin's squad, at home and in prime time, bullying the Packers, while Rodgers (who will, of course, be going about his business like it's any other game!) and DK Metcalf exploit Green Bay's vulnerability at cornerback. But to let that fear cow me into backing Pittsburgh, I would have to also ignore the fact that the most impactful player in this matchup -- at least, at this moment in time -- will be wearing a Packers uniform. Last week, Micah Parsons helped put Green Bay over the top in a close road win, and he has the ability to do so again on Sunday evening, especially if Jordan Love is able to press the Steelers' own recently victimized secondary.

MONDAY, OCT. 27

Why Brooke picked the Chiefs: The Chiefs have quickly become the scariest team in the NFL once again, winning four of their last five games after beginning the campaign 0-2. Patrick Mahomes is playing insanely well right now. He leads the NFL in with 18 total touchdowns and just got his offense back to full strength -- most notably Rashee Rice, who returned and scored two TDs last week after missing the majority of last year with an injury and serving a six-game suspension to open this season. In fact, over their last four games, the Chiefs have scored 126 points -- the most by Kansas City in a four-game stretch since Weeks 4-7 of 2022, the year when Mahomes won his second MVP and the Chiefs won their third Super Bowl. The Commanders are headed in the opposite direction. Their defense is among the worst in the NFL, they've lost back-to-back games and they'll be without Jayden Daniels (hamstring) on Monday night. It doesn't look promising for Marcus Mariota and the banged-up Washington offense against a Kansas City defense ranked third in scoring and fifth overall. Add in the fact that this is a prime-time game at Arrowhead, and it could get ugly.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Ali picked the Chargers: This season, teams are 5-1 in games immediately after facing the Eagles, and 1-5 after taking on the Colts. Why does this matter? Well, in Week 7, the Vikings lost by six points to Philly while the Chargers were crushed by Indy. Using the updated 2025 scientific method, in which causation is synonymous with correlation, we can thus conclude Minnesota will win Thursday night. (Pretty sure that’s how it works.) But even if I were to admit there could be some holes in my methodology, the Vikings’ unique ability to generate pressure would seem to give them an edge over a Chargers team dealing with major question marks up front. If tackles Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins are out for L.A. (both appear to be game-time decisions), then Justin Herbert could be in for yet another long night. The sixth-year passer enters TNF having been pressured 30 more times than any other QB this season, per Next Gen Stats. The seemingly unending duress has affected his effectiveness:

• With pressure: 68.7 passer rating, 49.1 comp%, 5 pass TDs, 4 INTs.
• Without pressure: 109.8 rating, 79.8 comp%, 8 pass TDs, 2 INTs.

Yeah, not good. So why in the world am I picking the Chargers? Well, like in most sound scientific pursuits, I’m starting with an assumption: Alt will return at left tackle. And as much as Herbert would undoubtedly love to have Pipkins back, too, Alt is the critical component. With the former fifth overall pick on the field this year, Herbert’s passer rating (103.7 vs. 88), yards per attempt (7.7 vs. 6.6) and TD-to-INT ratio (6:1 vs. 7:5) are all notably better. Plus, the Bolts are rocking their sweet Super Chargers all-navy throwbacks, and science simply can’t capture the power of a perfect uni.

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