NFL Week 11 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup analysis for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 11 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 13.

THURSDAY, NOV. 13

Why Brooke picked the Patriots: The Patriots have played the second-easiest schedule in the NFL, but they've still earned each of their eight wins. Drake Maye is looking like an MVP candidate, ranking top three in completion percentage (71.7, second), pass yards (2,555, third) and pass TDs (19, T-third). His supporting cast -- namely, rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson and receiver Stefon Diggs -- has been heating up in recent weeks, and the defense has done its job regularly. That unit has gotten big contributions from the DT duo of Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, as well as cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who has yet to allow a TD on 47 targets in coverage, per Next Gen Stats. Williams and Barmore's 63 combined pressures are seven more than any other interior pass-rushing duo, despite both players being double-teamed at above-average rates. It's not great for a Jets front allowing the highest pressure rate this season. New York will also be without star wideout Garrett Wilson. The Jets have shown grit and surprised with some outstanding special teams plays in their back-to-back wins, but Mike Vrabel's balanced crew shouldn't have any major issues earning win No. 9.

SUNDAY, NOV. 16

Why Tom picked the Dolphins: For perhaps the first time this season, they're entering a game looking like the more functional, stable side, carrying some honest-to-god mojo from Week 10's impressive win over Buffalo. Could Miami actually gather some -- lord help us -- momentum here? It's hard to imagine a more appealing foil for Mike McDaniel's crew than the Commanders, whose defense is stained by the highest EPA per dropback mark (0.22) in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats, while allowing a league-high passer rating of 112.7 to opposing QBs. Tua Tagovailoa thus has a great chance to post a passer rating of 80-plus for the second consecutive game, which would mark the first time he's done that since Week 5 against Carolina. He also has some capable offensive playmakers (De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle) at his disposal, while Washington will not have Terry McLaurin, Daron Payne or, you know, the one player who basically makes that whole operation go (Jayden Daniels). Unless you're predicting some international hijinks, it's difficult to justify going against McDaniel's squad here.

Why Gennaro picked the Falcons: As we make our way through November, desperation builds among those trying to remain relevant. That’s absolutely a factor in this game, a divisional bout between two teams tied for the NFC’s longest playoff drought (seven seasons). So, motivation shouldn’t be an issue for either side, but who’s more trustworthy? Between these two, that’s a real Sophie’s choice. A month ago, the Falcons convincingly beat Buffalo to improve to 3-2 and purportedly announce their arrival as postseason contenders. Then they lost four straight games. Meanwhile, the Panthers have oscillated between the roles of hammer and nail all season long. They demolished this very Atlanta team 30-0 back in Week 3 … and then lost by 29 points at New England the very next Sunday. Over the past three weeks, Carolina sandwiched humiliating home defeats to Buffalo and New Orleans around a shocking road upset of Green Bay. With a pair of struggling young quarterbacks facing off, both squads would love to pound the rock. And seeing how Atlanta’s porous run defense just gave up an astounding 323 ground yards to Indianapolis, it’s not hard to imagine breakout back Rico Dowdle rumbling all over the Falcons. At the same time, Carolina’s only a few weeks removed from yielding a career-best 216 rushing yards to James Cook -- on just 19 carries! -- so Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier could eat on Sunday. In an unpredictable matchup between erratic combatants, it’s never a bad idea to roll with the home team, so I shall. The Falcons end their four-game skid and avenge September’s embarrassing loss to their I-85 rivals.

Why Ali picked the Bills: Because this game will be played in Buffalo. Home-field advantage can often be a bit overstated; after all, home teams have won at just a 54.7% clip this season. But the Bills aren’t just any average team when they play at Highmark Stadium: They’ve won an NFL-best 83% of their regular-season home games since the start of the decade (39-8), and have been particularly potent when the calendar flips to November, capturing nine straight dating back to the 2023 season (longest active streak). Now, I know the Bills have already dropped a game in Buffalo this year -- a nail-biter to New England in Week 5. But those same Patriots just went down to Tampa last Sunday and comfortably handled Baker Mayfield & Co, too. While I don’t expect the Bills to run away with this one -- especially if Bucky Irving makes his long-awaited return (he could be just the spark the Bucs offense needs right now) -- I just find it too difficult to believe Josh Allen doesn’t rebound resoundingly after one of the worst losses of his career. Not in front of the Bills Mafia. Sometimes the simple stats are the most reliable ones.

Why Dan picked the Chargers: I keep waiting for all the injuries to catch up with the Chargers, but I don’t think it’s happening this week. While he’s been hit more than any other quarterback this season, Justin Herbert keeps finding a way, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards and third in TD passes. After a beatdown of the AFC North-leading Steelers, Los Angeles leads the NFL with a +49 point differential since Week 8. It’s a very different story of late for the Jaguars, who have dropped three of their last four, with the lone victory a one-point escape over the cellar-dwelling Raiders. Jacksonville has allowed the third-most points per game (33.3) and second-most touchdown passes (11) of any team since Week 7. The quarterback disparity feels significant here. Trevor Lawrence has a 79.3 passer rating this season (second-lowest among QBs with 125 or more pass attempts) and also ranks in the bottom 10 in completion rate (59.5%), pass yards per attempt (6.3) and TD-to-INT ratio (10:7). If the Bolts don’t self-destruct after a cross-country trip and 10 a.m. PT start time, they should win their fourth straight.

Why Tom picked the Bears: My first gut instinct said not to trust the Bears' defense, which has been pushed around in recent weeks, including by the middling Giants attack in Week 10. My second gut instinct said, wait a second, the Bears' offense has actually been the most reliable unit on either side lately, ranking fifth in EPA per play in the NFL since their Week 5 bye, per Next Gen Stats. Then my third gut instinct chimed in to remind me that the Vikings' vulnerability against the run (they rank 20th in EPA per carry allowed) lines up perfectly against a particular strength of Chicago, which ranks third in the NFL in EPA per carry over the past five weeks. And so the great gut tie was broken. I am wary of J.J. McCarthy and Kevin O'Connell kicking it into gear, as well as the presence of an all-world receiver (Justin Jefferson) who would surely love to put last week's rare stinker firmly behind him. But I'm also wary of McCarthy in general, given how wildly his performances have varied this season, and you don't love to see that he's dealing with an injury to his throwing hand. Caleb Williams and Co. ride the run game to a third straight win.

Why Gennaro picked the Packers: As evidenced by the seven-point output in Monday night’s loss to Philadelphia, Green Bay is struggling to find its way offensively without tight end Tucker Kraft. And center Elgton Jenkins just hit injured reserve this week, which certainly doesn’t help the Packers’ cause. But they get no sympathy from the Giants, who are tasked with finding their way offensively without everyone. OK, not literally, but New York’s offensive firepower has been decimated by injuries, with WR Malik Nabers tearing his ACL in September, RB Cam Skattebo suffering a gruesome ankle dislocation in October and QB Jaxson Dart getting concussed this past Sunday. Oh, and did I mention Big Blue just fired head coach Brian Daboll? Interim coach Mike Kafka’s decision to start Jameis Winston over Russell Wilson this week is already paying dividends -- the new QB1’s singing show tunes to the assembled press! -- but how productive can the 31-year-old signal-caller be in his first real game action since last December? Green Bay’s defense is fresh off its stingiest effort of the season, holding Philadelphia to just 10 points. As mentioned above, though, the Packers still lost that game, thanks to an offense that’s logged twice as many turnovers (four) as touchdowns (two) over the past couple weeks. That said, this looks like a prime get-right opportunity for Matt LaFleur’s attack. With the G-Men possibly fielding the worst run defense in the league -- allowing a staggering 187 ground yards per game over their last four outings -- Josh Jacobs could finally provide his first 100-yard effort of the season. That’d be a welcome development in Titletown. While New York probably needs Jameis to go YOLO in order to win this contest, Green Bay would be wise to put a governor on its adventurous signal-caller in this matchup. I appreciate Jordan Love’s inclination to shoot his shot as much as the next football fan, but it feels like the man’s irrational confidence needs to be reined in.

Why Dan picked the Steelers: These are strange times. I was torn about whether I should pick the Bengals, a team with a historically bad defense, to beat the division-leading Steelers at home. That’s how bad Mike Tomlin’s crew looked last week, scoring a season-low 10 points and turning the ball over a season-high three times in a non-competitive showing against the Chargers. The Steelers, once riding high at 4-1, have lost three of their last four, including a two-point defeat to Cincinnati a month ago that served as a launching pad for the Joe Flacco renaissance (league-high 1,035 passing yards from Weeks 7-9). The best thing Aaron Rodgers and Co. have going for them is a rematch with a defense that is on pace to set the record for the most points allowed in a single season. Reluctantly, I’m predicting Pittsburgh to bounce back on offense while a prideful defense -- which has produced 10 sacks in the last two games -- slows Flacco’s momentum just enough for a narrow victory.

Why Ali picked the Texans: The Titans have had an extra week to prepare for this AFC South clash, but I’m not convinced even a month’s worth of extra practices and film study would be sufficient to overcome what’s headed their way. When these two teams met at the end of September, the Texans pitched a 26-0 shutout. What’s changed in the seven weeks since that suggests a Tennessee win in Round 2? You could point to Houston starting Davis Mills in place of an injured C.J. Stroud (concussion), but after the QB2’s confidence-boosting comeback last weekend -- in which he contributed three TDs in the Texans’ stunning 26-point fourth quarter -- perhaps banking on the backup to flop is unwise. Especially when the league’s top-ranked defense has his back. The Titans have already been on the right side of one of the most unbelievable outcomes of the season, so I’m not going to use any absolutes here. But Houston has seemingly every key advantage in this matchup. If you don’t believe me, believe NFL Pro.

Why Brooke picked the 49ers: Chasing the red-hot Seahawks and Rams in the NFC West, the depleted 49ers get a little breather in the schedule, facing four teams currently .500 or worse in their next four games. They have some serious questions on both sides of the ball right now, with most of the defensive issues pertaining to health. Offensively, Kyle Shanahan's run game has surprisingly stunk -- though it has been better with George Kittle back on the field -- ranking last in the league at 3.5 yards per carry, with five games of fewer than 75 ground yards. It's hard to pin that on Christian McCaffrey, who leads the NFL with 249 touches (30 more than the next name on that list, Jonathan Taylor) and is second in scrimmage yards (behind Taylor) and receptions (behind Ja'Marr Chase). The good news is Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall are practicing this week and could play. On the flip side, the Cardinals will be without Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendectomy), which will likely put even more attention on Pro Bowl tight end Trey McBride. Jacoby Brissett has the offense doing some good things, as he's thrown for 250-plus yards and at least two TDs in each of his four starts. This is going to be a battle -- their Week 3 game certainly was, with San Francisco eking out a 16-15 win -- even if these squads look much different this time around. My gut tells me to trust Shanahan.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Brock Purdy (toe) will start for the 49ers on Sunday against the Cardinals, head coach Kyle Shanahan announced Thursday. Ricky Pearsall (knee) will also make his return this weekend.

Why Dan picked the Rams: These are the top two teams in the league right now, and the clash of powerhouses serves as a moment of truth for Sam Darnold. He deserves to be in the MVP conversation. Jared Goff is the only player with a higher passer rating (min. 150 pass attempts). Darnold still must prove the Rams are not his kryptonite, though. His Vikings lost by 10 or more points in each of their visits to SoFi Stadium last season, with the QB taking a whopping nine sacks and turning the ball over twice in a 27-9 Wild Card Round blowout. First place in the NFC West is on the line this time, and both teams have not trailed in a game since Week 6. Can Darnold slay the beast (Chris Shula’s defense, in this case)? Or can Seattle’s havoc-wreaking D knock Matthew Stafford -- the MVP front-runner -- off his game? He’s on an absurd heater, with at least four pass TDs and no interceptions in three straight games (longest such streak in NFL history). I’m giving a slight edge to the home team and the Super Bowl-winning QB, but these squads are playing too well for any competitive result to surprise me.

Why Brooke picked the Ravens: With Lamar Jackson back in the fold, Baltimore's riding a three-game win streak, which has division-leading Pittsburgh firmly in its sights. Jackson, who's dealing with knee soreness but apparently should be OK, is averaging the fewest carries and rush yards per game of his career. At the same time, he leads the NFL in passer rating (127.1) and owns a sparkling 15:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Derrick Henry has been relatively quiet after some early-season miscues, but let's not forget he historically takes over as the weather turns cold. It's honestly scary to know Baltimore's offense hasn't been close to its best yet. Then consider the defense is rounding into form and hasn't surrendered more than 19 points in any of its last four games. Look, we know Myles Garrett will make his plays. I can't say the same for the rest of the Browns, especially on offense. I fully expect Baltimore to be in control for most of this game.

Why Tom picked the Chiefs: I almost tricked myself into going with the Broncos and their superpowered defense at home. Could Denver's pass rush keep Patrick Mahomes from getting back into the Master of the Universe groove that helped him power a three-game win streak for K.C.? Sure, maybe. Can Bo Nix give Andy Reid the fifth ever post-bye week loss of his decades-long head-coaching career? That's a tougher question to answer -- unless you need to splash some cold water on any idle thoughts of a Broncos upset, in which case it's exactly where you want your brain to lead you. All due respect to Nix and Sean Payton for putting together an exciting season so far, but this figures to be the Biggest Test Yet of Denver's legitimacy. And I would feel a lot better about the Broncos' chances if I knew they were going to have Patrick Surtain II and J.K. Dobbins on the field, as they did for their only victory to date against a team that is currently in the playoff picture, a four-point squeaker over the ever-angsty Eagles back in Week 5. It feels like everything would have to line up perfectly for Denver to pull this off, and Mahomes and Co.'s fresh-and-rested status kind of takes that scenario off the table from the jump.

Why Brooke picked the Eagles: Here's to finally getting the NFC title game matchup everyone expected to see last January. Dan Campbell taking over play-calling duties paid off against a lesser foe last week, but calling a good game against Vic Fangio's top-10 scoring defense is a much tougher task. The Lions ran play-action on a season-high 51.4 percent of dropbacks in Week 10 -- up from 28 percent in Weeks 1-9, per Next Gen Stats. Should we expect another high dose of play-action from the Lions? It's possible, because while Philly's defense ranks among the league's best against the pass, it has struggled against play-action this season, allowing 10 yards per attempt, fifth-most in the league. I expect Detroit to routinely look for the big plays downfield, and it'll need them to pull off the upset. Perhaps the biggest storyline entering this game is A.J. Brown's continued frustration with the offense, which has reached an all-time high. No matter: The Eagles have found ways to move the sticks and stack wins. This unit isn't playing to the level it was during last year's Super Bowl run, but when your coach is confident enough to call a highly questionable, low-percentage shot on fourth-and-6 with the game hanging in the balance, it's a good sign. Great teams find ways to win. Both of these clubs fall into that category. Yet, with Detroit dealing with a few too many injuries to its secondary and with this game being played in Philadelphia, the scales tilt the Eagles' way.

MONDAY, NOV. 17

Why Ali picked the Cowboys: The Cowboys enter this prime-time tilt with extremely heavy hearts, after the tragic death of Marshawn Kneeland during the team’s Week 10 bye. It seems trivial right now to talk about matchup comparisons or defensive coverages or point differentials. Dallas has a game to play, though, and as coach Brian Schottenheimer said on Wednesday, the team doesn’t "move on, but we do move forward." How Dallas moves forward is truly anybody’s guess. I think it’ll be with a spirited effort, led by the Cowboys’ elite passing game. If Dallas' O-line can keep Maxx Crosby in check (as much as that’s even possible), I think the team’s talented pass catchers will find plenty of YAC opportunities versus a Raiders defense that ranks near the bottom of the league against quick and intermediate passes. And in that scenario, the Raiders' offense isn’t currently constructed to match scores.

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