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Sifting through fantasy running back rotations

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What is your outlook on Doug Martin since it was announced his workload will be decreased? Still a Round 1 pick? -- @WhrsWierzbowski (via Twitter)

Marcas Grant: Martin wasn't likely to be a first-round pick anyway, but the talk that he'll be stuck in a running back rotation in Tampa means I'm downgrading him to a low-end RB2 in 2014. First, there's the concern of how Martin will rebound after missing much of last season with a shoulder injury. Plus, after what we saw from Bobby Rainey and Mike James last season, either one of those backs could start to steal touches if Martin falters. Not to mention that the Bucs could go to the air a little more often now that Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins have been added to the roster. That's too much uncertainty for me when there are other backs in less precarious situations.

What is the value of the Chargers RBs? Is Ryan Mathews an RB1 this year? -- @Utu3 (via Twitter)

M.G.: Mathews is in a similar situation as Martin. While the former Fresno State star had his best pro season in 2013, there's a crowded house in the San Diego backfield. It was bad enough Danny Woodhead was around to take some of the third-down snaps last season, but the Chargers added Donald Brown via free agency. Mathews finished 12th among running backs last season and there's nothing to suggest 2014 won't bring a similar outcome.

Any emerging running back committees that may endanger the leading RB1s? -- @ndutton13 (via Twitter)

M.G.: Among your surefire No. 1 running backs, there's really nothing to worry about. Guys like LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and Marshawn Lynch are going to see a full complement of touches as long as they're healthy. The worries begin when you get down toward the list of RB2-caliber players, like Martin and Mathews. One player to keep an eye on is Frank Gore, who could start to be phased out as the 49ers look to younger options. It's also worth being aware of what's going on with Knowshon Moreno, who isn't making a good first impression in Miami.

Is Zac Stacy's job in jeopardy after there have been reports that Tre Mason is expected to have a major role? -- @Daboonson (via Twitter)

M.G.: The hardest part about reading team reports in early summer is separating the real dirt from, uh ... fertilizer. In this case, the talk surrounding Tre Mason seems more like a smokescreen. The former Auburn star says he was told he will compete for the starting job. The key word there is "compete" -- meaning he might get a few chances to run with the first team. But this is Stacy's job to lose. If anything, telling the rookie he has a chance at the starting gig is a way to light a fire under the incumbent and keep him from resting on his laurels. However, it can also lead to situations like you see with the Jets quarterback "competition." For now, assume Stacy's role in 2014 will look a lot like it did in 2013.

I have the sixth pick in my league. I'm thinking of taking Arian Foster with my pick. Your thoughts? -- @superlefty85 (via Twitter)

M.G.: It's not a ridiculous idea, although it's a few picks too rich for my blood. Right now, I like Foster closer to the bottom of the first round or possibly the top of the second round. The recent talk that the Texans plan to use the veteran as a three-down back is certainly encouraging, but I still have concerns about a running back who had more work than any other rusher from 2010 to 2012 -- by a long shot -- and has dealt with a growing litany of injury problems over the past couple of seasons. I'd likely roll with a couple of less worrisome options like Eddie Lacy or Le'Veon Bell in that spot.

Better bounce back performer -- Ray Rice or Trent Richardson? -- @copsusetweets (via Twitter)

M.G.: I've been driving the Trent Richardson bandwagon for a couple of months now. Admittedly, it still has plenty of good seats available. But I certainly feel more comfortable taking Richardson over Rice. First off, Richardson doesn't have a potential suspension hanging over his head, meaning he's more likely to play a full 16-game schedule. Beyond that, after giving up a first-round pick to the Browns for the running back, Indianapolis is likely to give Richardson every chance to prove himself -- something that should be a little easier with a full offseason to study the playbook. I don't expect Richardson to rise much above the level of a high RB3, which says a lot about what I think will happen with Rice this year.

Would you take a second or third round gamble on some of the WRs returning from injury -- Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, etc.? -- @b_dollenmeyer (via Twitter)

M.G.: Jones definitely fits that bill. He's likely to be forgotten about after missing most of last season with an injury, but he's too talented to not be a WR1. The only others worth even considering are Cobb and Harvin. However, Cobb has just one productive fantasy season under his belt while Harvin's continued injury issues make him too much of a risk to select that early in the draft.

How much more vulnerable is Arizona against tight ends with a weaker linebacker corps? Larry Foote and Ernie Sims aren't Karlos Dansby and Daryl Washington. -- @AndrewNordmeier (via Twitter)

M.G.: It's a fair question ... and the short answer is that it won't help. Losing Dansby to the Browns tough enough, now with Washington suspended for a full season, the Redbirds have a big hole in the middle of the defense. Last season, the Cardinals allowed 13.86 points to opposing tight ends and it doesn't look to get any easier this year. In addition to two games against Vernon Davis and the 49ers, Arizona will line up against Julius Thomas, Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz and Jason Witten. Not only will losing those two players put a dent in the production of Arizona's D/ST, it could help out the opposition as well.

What's going to be the next dominant fantasy position, points-wise? -- @GraemeFinley (via Twitter)

M.G.: Quarterbacks have fully taken over that designation and I don't see that changing anytime soon. As the position that touches the football on just about every snap, QBs have the most potential to put up big numbers. Still, if you're a savvy fantasy investor looking to get in on the next big thing, might I suggest kickers? No, seriously. As Michael Fabiano recently laid out, the top kickers in fantasy are posting numbers akin to top 10 running backs. We're not likely to get to a point where people are ranking Stephen Gostkowski alongside DeMarco Murray, but it's not the throwaway position it once way.

Do you agree with -1 point for missed field goals? -- @510boB (via Twitter)

M.G.: I agree with it for any field goal under 50 yards. While we've seen the proliferation of the 50-yard attempt, it's still not very common (just 69 attempted all last season) and is far from a sure thing (65 percent success rate.) However, anything under 50 should come with a penalty for failure. Nowadays, any kicker that can't consistently convert from 40-49 yards is going to be out of a job in short order. That means teams expect production from that range. Not to mention that every other position in fantasy has some sort of negative outcome built in (fumbles, interceptions, etc.), why should kickers be any different?

Marcas Grant is a fantasy editor for NFL.com and a man who is still bitter about spending his 2008 first round pick on Tom Brady. Tweet him about nearly anything BUT that at @MarcasG.

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