From studs to duds, sleepers and more, Michael Fabiano breaks down the biggest fantasy stories of the week.
1. The 49ers defense puts up huge numbers against the Rams. Guess who scored the most fantasy points on NFL.com in Week 4? No, it wasn't David Garrard (31 points) or one of the Manning brothers (Eli -- 25 points, Peyton -- 24 points). It was the 49ers defense, which racked up an unbelievable 45 points against the hapless St. Louis Rams. A much-improved unit, the Niners recorded three defensive touchdowns (LB Scott McKillop, LB Patrick Willis and DE Ray McDonald all found the end zone), five sacks, two fumble recoveries and one interception. They also held the Rams without a point and allowed a mere 177 yards of total offense in what was the best defensive performance of 2009.
The Niners defense, which was ranked fourth on NFL.com's lineup rankings, was owned in 84 percent of leagues and started in 79 percent for the week. The unit's "gold rush" made life miserable for everyone in a Rams uniform, even Steven Jackson. The stud running back mustered just three catches with 85 scrimmage yards and no touchdowns. Whether it's Marc Bulger or Kyle Boller under center, the Rams offense should be targeted as an opponent for fantasy defenses. Look for the Vikings to put up big numbers against them in Week 5.
The 49ers offense also scored some points, as Shaun Hill threw for two touchdowns in the 35-0 blowout. One of those scores went to Vernon Davis, who is finally living up to expectations. He's now scored three times in the last two weeks and has become a viable starter in fantasy circles. Rookie Glen Coffee had a decent first start in the absence of Frank Gore, recording four catches and 106 scrimmage yards in the contest. Coffee will be a viable flex starter in Week 5 when the Niners host the Atlanta Falcons.
2. Drew Brees doesn't throw a touchdown for second straight game.Fantasy owners who drafted Brees in the first round looked like virtual Einsteins in the first two weeks as the quarterback scored a combined 76 fantasy points on NFL.com. Well, those same owners haven't looked so good in the last two weeks. Brees proved to be human with a four-point performance against the Bills in Week 3, and his seven-point output against the Jets this weekend wasn't much better. He threw for just 190 yards and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the second consecutive game. Is Brees now subject to playing the matchups like most quarterbacks in this day and age? Well, you'd have to have a pretty strong backup to ever consider benching him. But with guys like Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco emerging, the decision to start Brees isn't so simple anymore.
When Brees struggles, it has a trickle-down effect on his receivers. Marques Colston (two catches, 33 yards) struggled to do much of anything with CB Darrelle Revis all over him and Jeremy Shockey (four catches, 34 yards) was also held in check by the Men in Green. The fantasy star of the game for the Saints was Pierre Thomas, who caught four passes, recorded 132 scrimmage yards and scored a touchdown in the 24-10 win over the Jets. Thomas has now scored a combined 32 fantasy points in standard leagues since his return from an injured knee. He's once again a must-start back after the team's Week 5 bye. The Jets failed to muster much offense in the game as Mark Sanchez looked much like a rookie with 138 yards, no touchdowns and four turnovers. The running game was invisible as well as Thomas Jones led the team with 48 yards on 13 carries.
If Jones and Leon Washington don't produce better numbers on the ground, don't be shocked to see more of rookie Shonn Greene. He saw his first four carries as a pro and rushed for 23 yards. Greene is someone to monitor in the coming weeks -- Jones is averaging a mere 3.8 yards per carry this season and is on the wrong side of 30. Coach Rex Ryan also praised Greene after the loss, saying "he has some explosiveness" and that "this kid has a chance to be a good one."
3. It's time to forget "name" value in fantasy football. In a time when playing the matchups is becoming more and more vital to success in fantasy football, it's a lot easier just to play the big names and hope for the best. Well, a few of those big names would better serve fantasy owners on their bench. The first name that comes to mind is LaDainian Tomlinson, who I warned everyone about in the preseason. After four weeks, he's tied with Maurice Morris in fantasy points among running backs with 10. He is clearly no longer an elite back and shouldn't be considered a weekly starter. The same holds true for Darren McFadden. When you rush for minus-3 yards against the worst run defense in the league, well, you no longer warrant a prominent role. The Oakland Raiders are a fantasy wasteland right now -- don't trust any of them, including McFadden.
It's also impossible to trust Braylon Edwards. He failed to catch a single pass against the Bengals and is now on pace to finish the season with 40 catches, 556 yards and no touchdowns. Yes, he is a big-name player, but it's at the point now where he's barely even worth owning in smaller leagues. Another player who's become hard to trust is Greg Olsen. He has scored a touchdown in each of the last two weeks. But after four games, Olsen has just 10 catches for 94 yards. That projects to 40 catches and 376 yards over a 16-game slate. Fantasy owners also can't lean on Clinton Portis anymore. He did rush for a respectable 98 yards against the Buccaneers, but he failed to find the end zone for the fourth week. What's so bothersome about Portis is that in his last three games, against the Rams, Lions and Bucs, he's averaged just seven fantasy points.
Fantasy leaguers should also no longer have Larry Johnson in their starting lineups. Since running the ball 416 times in 2006, Johnson's production and fantasy value have continued to fall. After a 53-yard performance against the Giants, L.J. is now on pace to finish the season with 756 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. You also have to start worrying about Tony Romo. Since putting up 32 fantasy points in Week 1, he's averaged a mere 9.6 in his last three games. He also looked plain awful in a loss to the Broncos.
4. The "other" Steve Smith now resides in Carolina. When the New York Giants released troubled wideout Plaxico Burress and veteran Amani Toomer, a sleeper receiver was almost certain to develop from their roster. The question was, would it be Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham or maybe rookie Hakeem Nicks? Well, none of that trio has made a consistent impact. Instead, Steve Smith has become the top option in the pass attack for Eli Manning. He proved that against the Chiefs, posting 11 receptions, 134 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-16 win. Believe it or not, but Smith is now the top-scoring wide receiver based on NFL.com's standard scoring system with 64 points after four weeks.
While his string of recent statistical success could hit a bump in the road in Week 5 against Raiders CB Nnamdi Asomugha, it's become nearly impossible to bench Smith based on his level of production. Smith's quarterback, Eli Manning, has also been a fantasy star in recent weeks. He threw for a solid 292 yards and three touchdowns in Week 4 and has thrown for multiple scores in three consecutive contests. Manning did leave the game in Kansas City with an injured heel, but the Giants appear optimistic that the ailment isn't serious. Based on the struggles he's had in the second half of seasons since 2006, now is the perfect time to sell high on Manning in all fantasy formats.
5. Rashard Mendenhall finally lives up to expectations. Heading into the weekend, fantasy owners knew that Mendenhall would be the likely starter for the Steelers in the absence of an injured Willie Parker. What they didn't know was what sort of numbers the former Illinois standout would post against the Chargers. After all, Mendenhall had been a disappointment at the NFL level and was recently benched by coach Mike Tomlin. As a result, Mewelde Moore was even seen as a better option in PPR leagues based on his more versatile skill set and his success last season. Well, Mendenhall stepped up for the first time with the Steelers and looked like a viable and productive NFL runner.
The second-year back rumbled for a career-high 165 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-28 win against what was a swiss cheese San Diego defense. The performance could turn the depth chart upside down for the remainder of the season. Parker told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he is "looking forward" to playing against the Lions in Week 5, but Mendenhall appears to have earned another start. Tomlin seems to prefer a featured back in the offense rather than a committee approach (that was evident in Mendenhall's 29 carries), so Parker's fantasy value could be falling fast. Based on the favorable matchup next on the slate, Mendenhall could be a viable No. 2 fantasy back in Detroit.
Pittsburgh's success on the ground against the Bolts didn't deter the numbers of Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for an impressive 333 yards and two touchdowns. Big Ben is now tied for sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks on NFL.com and looks more like the player who posted huge numbers back in 2007. At his current pace, Roethlisberger will finish with a career best in passing yards and 28 total touchdowns. Based on the struggles of the Steelers defense, don't be shocked if he winds up with close to 4,000 yard through the air. That's good news for Hines Ward, who had eight catches for 113 yards on Sunday night and has been a more consistent fantasy option than Santonio Holmes.
Notes:Bears QB Jay Cutler scored three touchdowns in a win over the Lions and has moved into the top 10 at his position in fantasy points. Despite the fact that his weapons aren't on par with what he worked with in Denver, Cutler is still a very viable fantasy starter. ... Browns RB Jerome Harrison will be a popular name on the fantasy waiver wire this week. He posted five catches and 152 scrimmage yards in a loss to the Bengals and has earned a greater role in the offense even when Jamal Lewis returns from an injured hamstring. In fact, Lewis could wind up seeing more of a short-yardage and goal-line role going forward. ... Jaguars QB David Garrard looked like a superstar in a win over the Titans, throwing for 323 yards and three touchdowns. While he needs to be more consistent to be considered a weekly fantasy starter, Garrard has become a valuable matchup-based option. He's also made Mike Sims-Walker a popular name on the waiver wire. The second-year wideout had seven catches, 91 yards and two touchdowns and has passed teammate Torry Holt in terms of fantasy value. Sims-Walker was a preseason sleeper on NFL.com. ... Texans RB Steve Slaton had his first big fantasy game of the week, posting 89 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Raiders. Slaton fumbled earlier in the contest and lost a series and a half to Ryan Moats, but he returned to action and made an impact. ... Seahawks WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh had his best game of the season against the Colts, recording eight catches for 103 yards in the 34-17 loss. The veteran was targeted 11 times by Seneca Wallace. With a game against the Jaguars and their poor pass defense next on the schedule, Houshmandzadeh should remain active in all leagues. Wallace could be a nice bye-week sleeper as well. ... Broncos RB Correll Buckhalter injured his left ankle against the Cowboys and left the stadium on crutches. If the veteran misses any time, rookie Knowshon Moreno should see a greater role in the offense. He looked good in the win over Dallas and could be on the verge of making a greater fantasy impact. ... Saints K John Carney is tied for third in points at his position, but the return of K Garrett Hartley from suspension could mean the end of his tenure with the team. The Saints are on a bye in Week 5, but Hartley could become a hot name on the waiver wire if Carney is released.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com. Have a burning question for Michael on anything fantasy football related? Leave it in our comments section or send it to **AskFabiano@nfl.com**!
