NFL Week 3 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Jeremy Bergman, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, Bobby Kownack and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2026 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 3 NFL picks below.

NOTES

• The lines provided by FanDuel are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 24.
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SUNDAY SEPT. 27

Why Bobby picked the Bills: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I will not be picking the Chargers for a third straight week -- nor am I likely to throw my support behind them very much at all in the coming months, considering the juggernauts lined up to face them. First up on that list: the Bills, who look to be the cream of the AFC crop in the early goings of this season. Josh Allen is on fire, having already accounted for nine touchdowns (five passing, four rushing) while leading Buffalo to 36 or more points in each of the team’s first two games. While there are some pressing questions about the Bills' defense, nothing has come easy to the Chargers in Mike McDaniel’s new scheme. Justin Herbert looks uncomfortable, his pass catchers have been affected by multiple big drops and injuries, and lead back Omarion Hampton has lost a fumble in both games. There’s nothing to suggest Los Angeles can string together enough scoring drives to keep up with Buffalo’s mighty offense. Look for the Bills to move to 3-0 in dominating fashion.

Why Bobby picked the Panthers: Cleveland’s upset victory over the Buccaneers felt more like Tampa Bay continuing to be the team that fell on its face throughout the end of last season than a sign the Browns will stick it to another NFC South opponent. Lest that be misconstrued as a “Browns is the Browns” take, Cleveland played well and fought hard for its win. Deshaun Watson was as precise as he’s been in years, rookie Denzel Boston looks like a stud, and the Browns defense was the far more composed side during the game’s final two minutes in the aftermath of a 132-minute weather delay. The Panthers just happen to be playing better ball than both the Bucs and the Browns. Bryce Young is off to the best start of his career, buoyed by the budding wide receiver duo of Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker. He’s averaged 324 passing yards through two games with three touchdown passes in each contest. It’s not out of the question he keeps it going against a Cleveland defense still navigating the early days of the post-Myles Garrett era. The wild card remains the Panthers’ defensive Jekyll-and-Hyde act to start the season. Are they the closer to the group that gave up 59 points to an explosive Bears team in the opener or the unit that dominated a woeful Falcons squad while allowing just 3 points? Even if it’s more the former, Dave Canales’ offense should be able to do enough for a victory.

Why Jeremy picked the Lions: Aaron Glenn's return to Detroit, where he was Dan Campbell's defensive coordinator for four seasons, will be the ultimate test for his Jets defense's early turnaround. After games against the Titans and Packers offenses (asterisk needed), Gang Green's defense, which received an influx of veteran talent in the offseason, ranks in the top three in yards per game (197.0, first), yards per play (4.0, third) and third-down conversion rate (23.8, second). New York will be without a few injured vets in the Motor City but should get back Joseph Ossai for Sunday's game. Whether Glenn's Jets feast depends on which Lions team shows up. Detroit has a talent advantage on offense but has yet to play a complete game this season (nearly blowing Week 1 against New Orleans, forgetting to show up until the second half of the Bills loss). The Lions defense is banged up, but so is New York's receiving corps. Detroit's best bet Sunday is getting to Geno Smith with Aidan Hutchinson and Co.; the QB hasn't turned the ball over yet, but he's faced a 43.4% pressure rate, second in the NFL only to the injured Jayden Daniels, and the veteran is due despite his claims otherwise. As Week 2 proved, the Jets still need to learn how to win. New York is close, but the lesson won't come this week against a tested Lions team.

Why Gennaro picked the Texans: Is this an elimination game in September? As the only Week 3 matchup between winless teams, this AFC South showdown screams desperation. Since 1990, just 2.9 percent of squads that lost their first three games went on to make the playoffs. We’re talkin’ five out of 171, people. Of course, last year’s Texans were one of those five. And while Houston’s hyped defense looked shockingly porous against Josh Allen’s Bills in Week 1, the unit largely stifled Joe Burrow and the Bengals last Sunday. I anticipate continued success against a one-dimensional Colts offense. Jonathan Taylor’s a stud, no doubt, but he has to be a one-man army with Daniel Jones still seemingly working his way back from last December’s Achilles tear. Add in the fact that Indianapolis' $114 million field stretcher just hit injured reserve, and Houston can commit additional resources to stopping the Colts' bell-cow back. Meanwhile, Indy's defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone, giving up the second-most yards EVER in the first two weeks of a season:

1) 2016 Raiders: 1,035 yards allowed
2) 2026 Colts: 1,029
T-3) 1967 Falcons: 1,025
T-3) 2017 Saints: 1,025

Oddly enough, the two bookends on that list -- the 2016 Raiders and 2017 Saints -- both made the playoffs with double-digit wins. Maybe the Colts have everyone right where they want them! … Or maybe they’re doomed to suffer a sixth straight loss to C.J. Stroud and Co.

Why Dan picked the Jaguars: There will be no sneaking up on anyone for this season’s Jaguars and Patriots, not after they both surprised in 2025. Sunday’s meeting is an opportunity to establish which squad has more staying power in the AFC’s upper ranks, and the trenches might dictate which team has the edge. Jacksonville needs better play from the offensive line, especially on the interior, if it’s going to bounce back from blowing a lead against Denver. New England has a duo that can exploit a team’s weakness up the middle, with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore at defensive tackle. One thing that could work in the Jags’ favor is the Pats' ailing health. New England has taken hits to the league’s No. 1 scoring defense -- edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones and safety Craig Woodson missed Wednesday’s practice with shoulder issues -- and lost RG Mike Onwenu (ankle) to injured reserve. I’m leaning ever so slightly toward the home team in what figures to be a highly entertaining battle.

Why Gennaro picked the Chiefs: Two weeks ago, we didn’t really know what to expect from Kansas City. The Chiefs were coming off their first losing campaign under Andy Reid, while Patrick Mahomes was returning from knee surgery. Two games into the season, it feels like the team and the quarterback are BACK. 

Whole different story in Miami. We all knew the 2026 Dolphins would be bad. That’s what happens when a new regime takes the roster down to the studs and carries a whopping $183.7 million in dead money. But this feels like a dead team walking.

What does Miami do well? Without any established firepower beyond RB De’Von Achane, the offense can’t sustain drives. The defense had no answer for Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty in Week 1 and nearly allowed a perfect game from 49ers QB Brock Purdy in Week 2. So, the better question might be, what does Miami do? This is a rebuilding team without an identity. That doesn’t play well against a resurgent power with Hall of Fame leadership.

Yes, this is Miami’s home opener and Kansas City’s first road game. No, I don’t think that completely flips the script in the Fins’ favor.

Why Gennaro picked the Titans: Both teams are coming off a loss, but their vibes couldn’t be more different. Tennessee gave Philadelphia all it could handle in a 24-20 defeat, instilling confidence in the young Titans that they can compete with real Super Bowl contenders. A true moral victory! New York, on the other hand, suffered extreme agony in defeat. The Giants not only lost to the Rams by 22 points, but they lost Jaxson Dart to knee surgery. John Harbaugh had a thousand-yard stare after the second-year quarterback went down on Monday night, and now he has to steer the ship without his best defensive player, too, as Brian Burns is reportedly set to miss time with an ankle injury. Remember all that hope following New York’s season-opening win over Dallas? Consider it DASHED. The G-Men just experienced a devastating gut punch, and I think the effects carry over into Sunday’s game against a suddenly frisky foe. You know Tennessee OC Brian Daboll would love to knock off the team that fired him last November. And while head coach Robert Saleh failed to exact his revenge on the Jets in Week 1, he’d undoubtedly enjoy notching his first win as Titans head coach in his old home of MetLife Stadium.

Why Brooke picked the Bengals: Cincinnati is seeing the fruits of its offseason labor defensively, and perhaps no player has been more influential to his new team than DT Dexter Lawrence through two weeks. According to NGS, with Lawrence on the field, the defense has generated a 45.2% pressure rate, allowed 2.9 yards per carry and has contacted the ball-carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage on 58.3% of carries. Without him on the field, Cincy has generated a 35.1% pressure rate, allowed 5.6 yards per carry and has contacted the ball-carrier at or behind the line of scrimmage on 21.4% of carries. Sexy Dexy's influence bodes well for a Bengals team heading into a hostile road environment to face an offense in which the QB and play-caller don't appear to be on the same page. Even if Pittsburgh gets Michael Pittman (foot) back, this unit doesn't strike fear in anyone right now and isn't likely to keep up with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the Bengals' oh-so-explosive offense. There's a LOT of pressure on the Steelers' eighth-ranked overall and scoring defense to make plays. It'll make its fair share, but ultimately, it won't be enough. 

One NFL Pro Insight matchup to watch: Bengals LT Orlando Brown vs. Steelers OLB Alex Highsmith. Brown has allowed a pressure on 13% of his pass blocks against the Steelers in 13 career games (including the postseason), the highest rate he has allowed against any opponent (min. 100 pass blocks). That rate jumps to 15.1% if you limit it to Browns' time with the Bengals (six games against Pittsburgh). Meanwhile, Highsmith has generated 24 pressures against Brown, including 16 quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds), the fourth-most quick pressures by any pass rusher against a single blocker since 2018. Nick Herbig has added 13 pressures and three sacks on 78 matchups against Brown.

Why Dan picked the Seahawks: Just when it seemed like the Commanders were starting to cook on offense, they are forced once again to face life without Jayden Daniels, who has now had more dislocations of his left elbow than any person should ever have to experience. Unfortunately for backup QB Marcus Mariota, his return to a starting role coincides with a visit from arguably the league’s most ferocious defense. The 2026 Seahawks are one of just five defenses since 2010 to allow fewer than 20 points and fewer than four yards per play over their first two games of a season, per NFL Research. Each of the previous four teams to do so won 11 or more games. It’s true that Seattle might be trotting out its own backup QB for the second week in a row, but Drew Lock has proven a tremendous fill-in for Sam Darnold. There’s always the threat of a West Coast team being discombobulated by a cross-country trip, but I’m not paying it any mind in this case. The Seahawks are 7-0 in road games that kicked off at 1 p.m. ET under head coach Mike Macdonald.

Why Jeremy picked the 49ers: No team is having an easier start to the season than San Francisco. Blowout victories over the jet-lagged Rams and doe-eyed Dolphins have the 49ers playing out of this world, even when they're on the other side of it. In come the Cardinals, who, after a Week 1 upset over the potentially fraudulent Chargers, were who we thought they were against the cream of the NFC West crop in the Seahawks. The 49ers pose a similar problem to Arizona as the 'Hawks did, and with Brock Purdy in the zone, the result should be similar. Expect San Francisco to control Sunday's game from the jump ... but just miss out on winning their straight game by at least 20 points, thanks to garbage time heroics by Trey McBride and Michael Wilson.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: There's early concern around Zac Robinson's offense in Tampa. My colleague Nick Shook's assessment of Baker Mayfield under his nth OC said it all: The veteran QB is uncomfortable in this scheme at this juncture. Having to right the ship against a blitz-happy Vikings defense feels like an uphill climb, despite Mayfield performing well in such situations of late. When blitzed this season, he has a 68.8% success rate, the second-highest among qualified QBs, per NGS. That's a big jump up from his 39.3% mark in 2025, the third-lowest. IF Baker can navigate Brian Flores' ferocious front, deciphering when the no-nonsense DC is sending the house or dropping guys into coverage, the Bucs should stay competitive. I would have argued that Tampa has the upper hand if Carson Wentz were starting, but praise Jesus, we don't have to watch that stuck-in-the-mud quarterback this week. With Kyler Murray set to return, we should (finally) get a better idea of what Kevin O'Connell's offense looks like at close to full strength. That'll be especially true if Todd Bowles' defense continues to underperform. Cleveland's Deshaun Watson had his best outing in years against the Bucs last week, and to make matters worse, first-round edge rusherRueben Bain Jr.'s status is uncertain. These teams are trending in opposite directions heading into this NFC clash.

Why Bobby picked the Saints: Raiders-Saints might be the most underrated matchup on the Week 3 docket. New Orleans, an overtime two-point conversion away from being 2-0, hosts a Las Vegas squad that remains unbeaten heading into late September. The Raiders have been playing winning football -- and doing so without tight end Brock Bowers, who is expected to return from a knee injury Sunday -- but it does come off as more of a mirage than what the Saints have been doing. While Kirk Cousins is tied for the NFL lead with six touchdown passes and the defense ranks fifth in points allowed with a league-best 45.6 pressure percentage, per Pro Football Reference, such success has so far come against the rebuilding Dolphins and a Chargers team in a tailspin. Even with the loss against the Lions, New Orleans boasts the more impressive résumé following its comeback victory over the Ravens. Tyler Shough has exhibited an excellent rapport with his top three pass catchers, Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson. He also appears to have the clutch gene after storming back from 21 down to force Detroit to overtime and overcoming an 8-point fourth-quarter deficit in the win over Baltimore. If the Saints can keep Shough comfortable against Maxx Crosby and Co. -- admittedly a big if with left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. (ankle) out indefinitely -- the second-year quarterback can be trusted to deliver again in New Orleans’ 2026 home opener.

Why Jeremy picked the Cowboys: How do you say points in Portuguese? Two of the league's most exciting offenses have the potential to produce a Clássico at the Maracanã on Sunday. In only its second international game, Dallas is looking to export its Week 2 bounce-back performance over the equator. With possession, Dak Prescott's attack proved what it's capable of against Washington after their SNF snoozer. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and friends will hope to play keep-away from Dallas, as the Giants did in Week 1. But if Zay Flowers (hamstring) misses a second straight game, Baltimore's aerial attack could be neutered again against a Cowboys defense that hasn't found its footing yet under new coordinator Christian Parker. As long as both teams actually have proper footing on the Brazilian turf, they should tear up and down the field. But it'll be Dak and Dallas with more points in the end. If the Ravens had trouble with Chris Olave down the stretch in Week 2, just think of the problems they'll encounter covering two Olaves in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens in Week 3.

Why Gennaro picked the Rams: The Super Bowl LX matchup that wasn’t! Eight months ago, the Rams and Broncos suffered narrow defeats on Championship Sunday, leaving both painfully short of the Lombardi Trophy game. Then they opened this season by hitting the road and humiliating themselves on national television. Both returned to form at home in Week 2, though, setting up a compelling clash worthy of the Sunday night stage. Showcasing a pair of Super Bowl-winning head coaches and two of the league’s most well-rounded rosters, this game doesn’t lack for star power. And yet, I see its outcome hinging on the Rams’ meat and potatoes, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. With eerily similar frames, games and jersey numbers (23 and 24), L.A.’s two backs are difficult to tell apart. And so is their robust ground production through two games:

Williams: 23 rushes for 126 yards (5.5 per attempt) and a touchdown.
Corum: 22 rushes for 133 yards (6.0 per attempt).

I see Los Angeles’ blue-collar backfield playing a leading role in this prime-time tilt. Denver cleaned up its tackling last week after an embarrassing display against Kansas City’s Kenneth Walker III, but I still think this front’s susceptible to the run. Free-agent departure John Franklin-Myers got $63 million for a reason.

MONDAY, SEPT. 28

Why Dan picked the Eagles: Questions about the Bears’ quarterback situation linger over what had previously looked like a juicy matchup bathed in prime-time allure. Caleb Williams is dealing with the hamstring injury he suffered last week and his backup, Tyson Bagent, is in the concussion protocol, which means 38-year-old third-stringer Case Keenum is in line to start for Chicago on Monday night if Williams and Bagent can’t go. Keenum hasn’t played in a regular-season game since 2023, when he threw one touchdown pass and three interceptions in two starts for the Texans. It’s not hard to envision Philadelphia defensive coordinator Vic Fangio rubbing his hands together in glee at his good fortune, potentially missing out on having to game plan against one of the league’s most dynamic young QBs and his capable backup. The Eagles have the lowest point differential (+6) of any 2-0 team, and struggled to put away the Titans, who haven’t been competitive in years. So, while they might not be firing on all cylinders, it will take an even larger letdown than the team’s performance on Black Friday last year -- when the Bears ran wild over Philly -- to open the door for Keenum to pull off the upset. It looks like we’re about to find out if Ben Johnson can perform miracles.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Brooke picked the Packers: The Packers, lucky to eke out a victory in New York to avoid falling to 0-2, finally return to beloved Lambeau Field, where they have won each of their last 13 home openers. I have concerns about Jordan Love's O-line, which just lost starting right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele for the season and has others banged up (OG Aaron Banks , OT Anthony Belton and backup OL Donovan Jennings). Love has already taken seven sacks (tied for third-most), faced the fifth-highest pressure rate in the NFL this season (42.3%) and is tied for the most unblocked pressures faced (12), per NFL Pro. How Matt LaFleur game plans for his shorthanded offense against a Falcons defense that ranks first against the run, ninth on third down and in the red zone and has generated pressure on 41.5 percent on dropbacks (seventh in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats) could tell part of Thursday night's story. Not having CB A.J. Terrell hurts Atlanta's chances of slowing Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, but having Michael Penix Jr. under center should be a boon for that team. Even if he's still knocking off the rust, this should look like a more competent unit, one that's better-suited to get Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts more involved. These are two flawed teams, and though I think we'll see an improved Falcons outfit, Green Bay has a much-needed home-field edge and a defense that's playing with confidence with budding star Lukas Van Ness at the forefront. Clean up the penalties and this could be a turning point for the Pack.

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