NFL Week 18 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 18 NFL picks below.

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The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 1.

SUNDAY, JAN. 4

Why Gennaro picked the Jaguars: In the final game of a trying rookie season, Cam Ward won't have to look far for hope -- it will be quarterbacking the opposing team. Like Ward, Trevor Lawrence was a No. 1 overall pick, and also like Ward, Lawrence suffered through a rough debut campaign that included the midseason firing of his head coach. Both were Day 1 starters, and comparing their numbers through 16 NFL games ... well, misery loves company:

Lawrence provided a little more with his legs, though he got into more trouble with the arm. But I'm not here to compare these two quarterbacks' play styles, which are as dissimilar as their pedigrees (five star for Lawrence, zero star for Ward). The point is, both struggled in Year 1.

So, how has the 26-year-old Lawrence played since that season? Frankly, it's been more of a roller coaster than expected. But suddenly, he might be blossoming into true stardom. I remain a bit guarded because it's legitimately happening right now. After an unremarkable first few months under new coach Liam Coen, Lawrence has been on an absolute tear since Thanksgiving, with 16 total touchdowns and one turnover over the last five Sundays. The man's playing the best football of his career, winning fantasy leagues and putting Jacksonville in position to take the AFC South with a home victory over a three-win team. This feels like Trev's moment.

Why Ali picked the Texans: You've probably heard by now, but the Texans' defense is pretty good. During the team's eight-game run -- the longest active win streak in the league -- the D has limited opponents to 20 points or fewer six times, including the Daniel Jones-led Colts in Week 13. Indy, meanwhile, is in the midst of a six-game skid during which it has scored 20 points or fewer five times. So we've got a matchup between an offense struggling to find the end zone and a defense loath to give up points. That the Texans are playing for a shot at a division title while the already-eliminated Colts are turning to a rookie passer -- making his first NFL start -- only adds to Houston's long list of advantages. Still, it's worth noting that since the Texans began their climb up the conference ladder in Week 10, they haven't exactly been blowing teams out, owning an average margin of victory of 6.8 points. So it's possible Riley Leonard, with a strong supporting effort from Jonathan Taylor and the Colts defense, keeps this division matchup somewhat competitive. But it seems unfair -- if not unreasonable -- to expect the sixth-rounder to go toe to toe with the mighty Texans for four quarters in his starting debut.

Why Gennaro picked the Bengals: You want the simple logic? Here, I'll even bullet point it for you:

• When they're healthy, the Bengals score points in bunches.
• When they're on the road, the Browns give up 10 more points per game (28.3) than at home (18.1).

It's safe to say Joe Burrow will stress Cleveland's defense more than Aaron Rodgers did in the Browns' 13-6 stifling of the Steelers last week. Meanwhile, Cincinnati RB Chase Brown is 53 yards away from his first 1,000-yard season. I predict the Bengals get theirs. But will Myles Garrett get his? With 22 sacks, he's one away from setting the NFL's single-season record. Unfortunately, he's mired in a slump -- which, for this force of nature, means a half sack over the past two weeks. Garrett claims the Steelers were more worried about keeping him from the record than winning last Sunday's game. I'll be surprised if he levels the same accusation against the Bengals. Despite the deep reverence Zac Taylor expressed for Garrett on Monday -- “He’s the best defensive player on Planet Earth” -- Cincy's trying to finish this lost season with a flurry. Considering Burrow has dropped back 40 times per game since returning from injury, Garrett should have opportunities. In fact, over the last three weeks, Burrow's been sacked eight times by three underwhelming pass rushes (Baltimore, Miami and Arizona). So, yes, I think we do see history on Sunday, but Garrett makes it in a losing effort. That's the plight of a 160 million dollar man.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: Packers head coach Matt LaFleur announced Thursday that, despite Jordan Love clearing concussion protocol, third-string QB Clayton Tune will get the start on Sunday. (Green Bay's backup, Malik Willis, is dealing with a shoulder injury.) Tune was thrust into action last week, and it didn't exactly go well, but this will be his second career start -- his first was in 2023 with the Cardinals. Injuries have caused the Packers to spiral, with three straight losses locking them into the No. 7 seed. Consequently, getting healthy is the main priority before heading on the road for the first round of the playoffs. Despite being eliminated from postseason play, Minnesota is trending in the opposite direction at the moment, winning its last four games thanks to the dominant play of Brian Flores' defense, which allowed 10.8 points per outing in that span. Might we see more of the same with Tune under center for Green Bay? Probably. Offensively, it's still been a struggle for the Vikings. J.J. McCarthy has a chance to start despite dealing with a hairline fracture in his hand. Honestly, at this point, I don't care whom the Vikings trot out at quarterback. What I do care about is Justin Jefferson getting 53 yards, which he needs to hit 1,000 receiving yards for the season. He would join Hall of Famer Randy Moss and Mike Evans as the only players with 1,000-plus receiving yards in each of their first six seasons. It'll be a shame if a healthy Jefferson doesn't accomplish that feat because of this season's nightmarish QB play.

Why Dan picked the Cowboys: For the first time all season, these weary division rivals are coming off wins in the same week. Yes, it's been a rough year, especially for the Giants, but there's still intrigue here. The G-Men are in the running to clinch the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft entering Week 18, and the Cowboys could rise as high as No. 11 in the order with a loss. These two teams produced one of the most entertaining games of the year way back in Week 2, a 40-37 Dallas win in overtime (remember the Russell Wilson era?). Now, if Brian Schottenheimer plays Dak Prescott and the bulk of his other key starters for the entire contest, it's easy to envision CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens making enough big plays to put the game out of reach. But I wouldn't sleep on Jaxson Dart's ability to keep pace if the Giants continue playing at full tilt and the Cowboys throttle down. It's still hard for me to trust New York's ability to beat anyone other than the worst team in the league right now, though.

Why Dan picked the Falcons: Here we have the two hottest teams in the NFC South, a pair of squads that were eliminated from playoff contention weeks ago. Go figure. This game could have a say in who makes the postseason, though. If the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on Saturday, they still need the Saints to defeat or tie the Falcons to clinch the division. What a time. Anyhow, Atlanta upset a title contender in Week 17 and earned one of its most decisive wins of the season when it beat the Saints in NOLA in Week 12. Rookie Tyler Shough has gained a lot of confidence since then, no doubt, leading New Orleans to four straight victories, the franchise's longest winning streak since Drew Brees' final season. There's a lot to like about the Saints' current trajectory. Yet, in the end, I expect the Falcons' combination of a potentially dominant rushing attack, sound game management from Kirk Cousins and a frisky defense (that picked off MVP candidate Matthew Stafford three times last week) to prevail.

Why Brooke picked the Lions: Both teams enter the season finale after heartbreaking losses in Week 17. The Lions were officially eliminated from the postseason, while the Bears were knocked out of contending for the NFC's top seed (and that all-important first-round bye). I'm sure Detroit would love nothing more than to finish the campaign with a road win over Ben Johnson. To do that, the Lions can't afford to turn the ball over like they did a week ago and they must get back to running the ball with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Detroit ran over the Bears for 177 yards in Week 2, but that area of the offense has been too inconsistent too often. In fact, the Lions are 8-1 this season when they rush for more than 100 yards and 0-7 when posting fewer than 100 rush yards. Getting back to the run game will help Jared Goff avoid the Bears' ballhawking defense, a boom-or-bust unit that has allowed 24.8 points per game (22nd in the NFL) and 357.3 total yards per game (28th) but leads the league with 22 interceptions and 32 takeaways. Chicago has won many close games thanks to that unit and Caleb Williams' improved decision-making and ability to lead his offense, regardless of who's in or out of the lineup. The Bears are the better team right now. There's no questioning that. But these Week 18 tilts can get funky. Sunday is it for Detroit this season, while the Bears will go on to play for something bigger regardless of this game's outcome. I'm taking Dan Campbell's team in a close one.

Why Tom picked the Bills: In retrospect, I probably didn't need to deliberate as much as I did when trying to pick the winner of the first meeting between these two teams back in Week 2. At that time, the possibility still existed that the Jets were going to be as competitive all year as they were in their Week 1 fight with the Steelers. But the Bills coasted to a 30-10 triumph, handing the Jets the first of eight losses by 13 points or more this season, tied for the most in the NFL. New York's had its share of narrower defeats, too -- the other five, in fact, have come by a combined 19 points -- but not since Week 7. Can Brady Cook and Co. make this one closer if the Bills rest Josh Allen and other key players ahead of the playoffs? Sure, maybe. But there's one thing about this matchup that remains as true today as it was in September: When it comes to picking an actual winner, I can't bring myself to trust the Jets. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: Bills head coach Sean McDermott said Friday that Allen is "good to go" for Sunday's game.)

Why Ali picked the Patriots: New England enters this divisional matchup still in play for the No. 1 seed and still at risk of slipping to No. 3. The Patriots are also handling two separate and serious off-field allegations, involving Stefon Diggs and Christian Barmore, which are currently being reviewed by the NFL under the league's personal conduct policy. As of now, both players are eligible and expected to play on Sunday, though Barmore missed Wednesday's practice with an illness.

Although the Pats are preparing to start the rest of their first-stringers on Sunday, too, how long the 1s will stay on the field remains unclear. And that uncertainty makes this game particularly difficult to pick. The Dolphins have been a frisky bunch during the second half of the season, winning five of their last seven, including last week's upset of the Bucs. They've vastly improved their run offense, cleaned up their penalty problem and found ways to force turnovers; they have nearly twice as many takeaways over their last seven games as they had through their first nine (13 to 7). Quinn Ewers remains a bit of a wild card, especially if he has to match blows with MVP front-runner Drake Maye for a full 60 minutes. But if the rookie passer is supported by a productive ground game -- like what Buffalo and Baltimore generated against New England in Weeks 15 and 16 -- then the seventh-rounder might be able to make this contest uncomfortably close for New England. However, if the Pats are keen on at least locking up the two seed (which they can do with a win), then their best is still that much better than Miami's.

Why Brooke picked the Eagles: Two weeks ago, Philly defeated Washington by 11 points in a game Marcus Mariota started but couldn't finish. This time around, Mariota (hand/quad) is unlikely to take the field at all, while the Eagles reportedly are expected to rest Jalen Hurts and most starters. So gear up for this Tanner McKee vs. Josh Johnson thriller? OK, that might be a stretch. My trust in this one rests on one person: Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. His unit has hit its stride in the second half of the season, ranking first in the NFL with 14.5 points per game allowed since Week 10. It also has at least one takeaway in eight straight games. I get that many of this unit's stars won't be on the field, but Fangio knows how to get the most out of the guys who are available. I don't see that D completely folding against an already-struggling Commanders offense trotting out a 39-year-old third-string QB.

Why Tom picked the Broncos: I believe in the Broncos as legitimate Super Bowl contenders -- which pretty much legally binds me to pick them to beat Trey Lance, at home, with significant seeding stakes on the line for Denver. It's true that four of the past five Super Bowls were won by teams that did not get a Round 1 bye, but the 2024 Eagles, '23 Chiefs, '21 Rams and '20 Bucs were all led by experienced, playoff-savvy vets. The Broncos, on the other hand, only just blossomed into a conference-ruling power, with Bo Nix's only taste of the postseason thus far consisting of a no-doubter wild-card loss to the Bills roughly one year ago. Surely, no one has to sell Sean Payton on the importance of nabbing the top spot in the AFC field; the coach's lone Lombardi thus far came with the No. 1-seeded Saints in 2009. If he's going to get this young group pointed in the right direction for whatever comes next, securing an extra week of rest and prep can only help. I feel very comfortable counting on Payton and Co. to end the regular season on a strong note.

Why Tom picked the Chiefs: Somewhere in an alternate reality, I'm deciding to back the Raiders as they push for a wild-card spot while the Chiefs rest up for another playoff run. Instead, in our universe, I'm weighing what to do with this weird, swirling brew of disappointment. Going back to Week 9, these teams have a combined record of 1-16, which helps explain why the Chiefs are currently in line to potentially make a top-10 draft pick for the third time in the Andy Reid era -- and the first time since they moved up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017. It's a sign of how sour this year has turned for Kansas City that their proximity to Vegas in the draft order is less surreal than the fact that one of the Raiders' two wins came against the Patriots in Week 1. And yet, I still see the Chiefs as being better than their record, with their rankings in EPA per play (10th on offense, 14th on defense) and a rash of one-score losses (they have eight, tied for the most in the NFL) painting the picture of a team that could be closer to .500. That does not describe the Raiders, whose overwhelmingly negative point differential (-193) is already tied for the third-worst mark since the expansion to 17-game seasons in 2021. I'm comfortable rolling with the Chiefs, regardless of how many backup QBs are involved.

Why Ali picked the Rams: When asked after Monday night's stunning loss to the Falcons whether he'd play his starters in Week 18, Sean McVay didn’t mince words: "Oh, they're playing. ... We need to play better football." The Rams coach isn't wrong. Things have been amiss in L.A. across the board for several weeks now, with the defense struggling to keep opponents out of the end zone and the offense failing to protect the ball. Since Week 13, the Rams have dropped three of five and allowed the fifth-most points in the NFL (143) with seven total giveaways. For context, they gave up the fewest total points (179) and had just eight turnovers through Week 12. So, yes, the team widely viewed as the NFC's premier outfit for the first three months of the season needs to sharpen up before the tournament begins. Fortunately for the Rams, they'll face a Cardinals squad on Sunday that hasn't been right since mid-September. Arizona has suffered five losses of 19 points or more during its current eight-game skid, including a 28-point thrashing by L.A. in Round 1 of the season series (the Cards' worst defeat of the year). I'm taking the Rams with the assumption that they stick with their starters for the majority of the game. However, I'm a little nervous McVay might end up rolling out the second unit after the break. And if that happens, then Arizona could make a run at this one.

Why Dan picked the Ravens: What a way to close out the 2025 regular season, with Game 272 showcasing a bitter rivalry that will determine who wins the AFC North. One of these teams will be advancing to the playoffs as the conference's No. 4 seed, and one will be dealt a crushing -- potentially franchise-altering -- gut punch heading into the offseason. The main reason I'm going with the Ravens on the road is the absence of DK Metcalf, who is serving out the remainder of his two-game suspension for initiating a physical confrontation with a fan during Pittsburgh's Week 16 win over the Lions. With no Metcalf, Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the offense could only muster two field goals last week in a loss to a Browns team that had allowed 27.8 points per game in its previous four contests. The 42-year-old QB isn't the same guy without his WR1, as his numbers with and without Metcalf on the field show.

• On field: 67.2% completion rate, 7.1 yards per attempt, 23:7 TD-INT ratio, 99.9 passer rating.
• Off field: 56.7% completion rate, 4.7 yards per attempt, 0:0 TD-INT ratio, 69.1 passer rating.

If Arthur Smith cranks up a crafty running game and Lamar Jackson returns from injury, only to clearly be off his game, I could see things swinging into the Steelers' favor. But at least one more time this season, I'm going with the Ravens, my preseason Super Bowl pick.

SATURDAY'S GAMES

Why Gennaro picked the Buccaneers: Because I'm a stubborn fool. You see, I planted my flag on Tampa Bay last offseason, conducting the quarterback's bandwagon, hyping the offense's firepower and championing the team's divisional reign. Then, despite falling victim to a ravenous injury bug in the early goings, the Buccaneers still hit their Week 9 bye with a two-game lead in the NFC South, making me feel smart. But since that break, the Bucs have dropped seven of eight games, making me feel dumb. And lately, I've looked even dumber, erroneously picking Tampa to win every single game in its current four-week losing streak. Is this the new definition of insanity? Quite possibly. My approach to this team is broke -- why not fix it? Well, beyond some clear hardheadedness, I'm continually underwhelmed by the opposition. Carolina hasn't exactly set the league on fire, invariably alternating wins and losses since mid-October. And although last week's defeat should make this a victory, I'm deviating from the pattern because Carolina has drifted from its identity. Over the last couple months, the Panthers' previously potent run game has ground to a halt, while their once-stout run defense has become a sieve. The Bucs have their own issues, to be sure, but they also have the more experienced quarterback and coach in this matchup, as well as the more established roster. This isn't truly a postseason play-in game -- while Carolina would clinch the division with a win, Tampa needs a win on Saturday and an Atlanta loss to New Orleans on Sunday -- but it will feel like one in the moment. And with this game taking place in Raymond James Stadium, I'm all too willing to go down with the pirate ship.

Why Tom picked the Seahawks: Let's pull back the curtain a little here and reveal a secret about picking games: It's freaking hard to predict what's going to happen in the NFL. This is especially true when it comes to showdowns between equally matched power players like the Seahawks and 49ers, who have come a long way since their last meeting, Week 1's tight, low-scoring win for San Francisco. There's one metric I've been clinging to increasingly while sifting through the haze of choosing winners each week: EPA per play. As a signifier of who is actually good on offense and defense, it rarely steers me wrong; in fact, when I allow my gut or narratives or things that I think I know to pull me away from the better team in EPA per play, I generally regret it. So, with all the NFC (and NFC West) marbles at stake in one of the most high-profile prime-time games of the season, I'm going to place my pick's fate entirely in the hands of the EPA gods. Here's how these juggernauts rank in EPA per play this season, per Next Gen Stats:

• Seahawks: 13th on offense, second on defense.
• 49ers: Fifth on offense, 25th on defense.

If I were going to listen to my dumb instincts, I would probably trust the more battle-tested Niners, who have been on fire behind Brock Purdy, over Sam Darnold's ability to collect his second signature prime-time victory in three weeks (following Week 16's win over the Rams), on the road. But I'm not listening to my dumb instincts. I'm taking Seattle's elite defense to slow San Francisco's almost-as-elite offense long enough for the Seahawks' above-average offense to exploit the Niners' bottom-eight D, and I'm not looking back.

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