NFL playoff picks: Divisional Round score predictions and matchup analysis

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Divisional Round picks below.

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The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 15.

SATURDAY, JAN. 17

Why Gennaro picked the Broncos: What are the benefits of backing the Broncos in this spot? Well, you get the AFC's No. 1 seed … returning to health after a week of rest … playing at home in the mile-high air … boasting a Super Bowl-winning coach and a feisty defense that's the most dominant unit in this matchup.

What are the benefits of backing the Bills? You get Josh Allen.

OK, in reality, I know it's not that simple. But for the second straight week, Buffalo has this simpleton distilling all matchup analysis down to one question: Do you take the better team or the best player? The player made this entire picks posse look stupid last week, proving our unanimous selection of Jacksonville wrong. So, what's different about this week's opponent? Denver's defense is a step up in class. Not only can the Broncos replicate the Jaguars' stifling effort in ground control -- Jacksonville just limited NFL rushing king James Cook to 3.1 yards per carry -- but they've spent all season terrorizing opposing passers. Comfortably leading the league in sacks (68), pressures (285, per NGS) and QB hits (164, per PFR) during the regular season, Vance Joseph's unit brings waves of heat from all angles. That is a frightening thought for Buffalo at this juncture, considering Allen's battered body seems like a minefield of pain. Now, Denver's offense is nowhere near as imposing. Bo Nix remains a wild card -- not just game to game, but quarter to quarter -- though I can't see Sean Payton putting this contest on his second-year QB's right arm. While Nix attempted the most passes of any quarterback during the regular season -- a stat that surprises me every time I see it -- the Bills have one of the worst run defenses in the entire league. The Jags averaged a whopping 6.7 yards per rush this past Sunday, but Liam Coen inexplicably stopped smashing the gash button. Payton won't make that same mistake.

In last year's playoffs, the Bills ended Denver’s season in Buffalo. I expect the Broncos to return the disfavor in Denver. But, of course, I'm fully prepared for Josh Allen to make me look stupid. Again.

Why Dan picked the Seahawks: When these teams met two weeks ago in Santa Clara, the Seahawks basically controlled the game from start to finish by putting their foot on the neck of the 49ers' offense and never letting up. Seattle held San Francisco to 173 total yards, the team's fewest in a regular-season game in Kyle Shanahan's career.

It's hard for me to see how things will dramatically improve for Shanahan's crew this time around, even though I know the teams split the season series (SF won, 17-13, in the opener). For one, that Week 18 loss, which locked up the No. 1 seed for Seattle and knocked San Francisco into a wild-card spot, is going to be felt in this matchup. The Seahawks had a bye on Wild Card Weekend, while the Niners beat the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday but lost their Pro Bowl tight end, George Kittle, in a significant hit to the offense. Since 1984, teams with eight-plus days of rest advantage are 7-0 in the playoffs, per NFL Research. The squad with shorter rest was held to 10 or fewer points in six of the seven games.

Obviously, that stuff screams ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS, but weird things do happen. And oddly, these are the first teams in NFL history to play in the first week of the regular season, the last week and in the playoffs. I don't want to overlook that the 49ers are 7-0 in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds under Shanahan. If Robert Saleh can work some magic on defense, Sam Darnold has shown he will give the opposition opportunities. The Seahawks QB led the league with 20 giveaways in 2025. The problem is San Francisco's injury-plagued D isn't known for wreaking havoc on quarterbacks. The Niners had the league's second-lowest QB pressure rate in the regular season (26.7%, per NGS) and they posted the lowest pressure rate of any team that played on Wild Card Weekend (16.2%).

Barring Darnold going into self-destruct mode -- which can't be ruled out -- I like the home team to take the rubber match between these division rivals.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Darnold (oblique) was added to the injury report on Thursday. He's listed as questionable.

SUNDAY, JAN. 18

Why Brooke picked the Texans: I'm a sucker for elite defenses, so naturally, I'm ALL IN on this Houston unit -- even against an MVP candidate on his home turf. The star-studded group had the No. 2 scoring (17.4 PPG allowed) and No. 1 overall (277.2 YPG allowed) defense in the regular season, while ranking third in takeaways (29). The Texans' D completely overwhelmed the Steelers last week, racking up four sacks and two defensive touchdowns while yielding just 175 yards. Now, Drake Maye and the Patriots aren't the Steelers. But this will be the toughest task Maye has faced in his career, as he has never played a team with a top-five scoring and total defense entering the week. The stakes have never been higher for the second-year pro, whose 2025 Pats are 2-2 against teams with a winning record, including last week's victory over Los Angeles. Against the Chargers' top-10 defense, Maye was good but not great. He has found success by leaning on Stefon Diggs -- Maye has an impressive 81.3 completion percentage when targeting the veteran this season (including playoffs) -- while also connecting with his other pass catchers and making timely plays with his legs when needed. I'm not so convinced he fares well, though, against Houston's pass rush and ballhawking secondary. After all, Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock each logged four interceptions during the regular season, with Bullock adding a pick-six on Wild Card Weekend. Maye could prove me wrong, but even after all that team has accomplished this season, I don't feel I can fully trust it.

On the flip side, can C.J. Stroud rebound from a disastrous performance in Pittsburgh? Does he need to with that defense? I mean, he needs to do something. There's a good chance he'll be without Pro Bowl WR Nico Collins (concussion), which isn't ideal. The pressure is on OC Nick Caley to dial up a game plan -- and Stroud to execute one -- that moves the ball against Mike Vrabel's top-10 defense, which also deserves its flowers but could be without shutdown corner Christian Gonzalez (concussion). No CG would be a huge hit to that unit. He didn't allow a single reception on five targets and 26 coverage snaps last week, per Next Gen Stats. On the plus side, Gonzalez was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.

Ultimately, I'm taking Houston because I feel THAT good about the defense. And dating back to 2024 (including playoffs), the Texans have won 16 straight games when they score at least 20 points -- a point total they've reached in every game since Week 12. They are 12-0 in such games this season -- the only team with zero losses in that circumstance. Houston will do enough on both sides of the ball to reach the AFC Championship Game for the first time in franchise history.

Why Tom picked the Bears: Not because it was the easy choice, I'll tell you that much. As we've explained multiple times since the postseason began, there are ample reasons to believe L.A. is best positioned to finish on top. It might even be kind of nice to see the narrative of this weird, wacky season subverted by a star QB and coach winning a title the old-fashioned way: by dominating opponents via their superior talent, game-planning and scheme.

That is not how the Bears, god love 'em, got here. Chicago's thrilling ride to the second seed was built on gutsy rallies and narrow escapes, which makes it tricky to back this team in any given week, let alone against a well-rounded foe like the Rams in the playoffs. As exciting as it all was in retrospect, how, exactly, do you decide to predict a seat-of-the-pants victory?

Turns out: By chewing over potential scenarios in your head until, barely tethered to reality, you begin to see the ways this could spin into the kind of nail-biter that perfectly suits the Bears. First, there's the setting. Normally, I'm not one to get too worked up about how a warm-weather team might fare in hostile temps. Matthew Stafford and Co. are pros' pros who should be trusted in most situations. But we're not merely talking about a little chilliness on Sunday. The forecast calls for a brutal wind chill and the kinds of arctic conditions that the Rams basically never see; their coldest game of the year was Week 13's upset loss in Carolina, when the temperature at kickoff was 45 degrees. I can't just ignore that, or the Bears' 2-1 record under Caleb Williams when the temperature at kickoff is 20 or below.

Then we come to the bumpy closing stretch for the Rams, who went 4-3 in Weeks 12-18, during which the previously dominant defense -- forced to operate without injured DB Quentin Lake -- slid to 17th in EPA per play, one spot below the Bears in that span. Lake returned last week, but L.A. still surrendered 31 points to the Panthers. If that D continues to be closer to the Bears' level, and both offenses are capped by the weather, then it's reasonable to think we're in for a close one -- and that's when I stare too long at the Bears' superior record this season in one-score games (8-4, compared to 5-5 for L.A.).

Yes, the absences of left tackle Ozzy Trapilo and linebacker T.J. Edwards are concerning, but so is the finger injury Stafford suffered in his throwing hand last week. Might I be haunted by this pick, like I was by my ill-fated decision to back the scrappy Commanders over the objectively better Eagles in last year's NFC title game? Sure. Then again, couldn't I also be haunted if I picked the Rams, like I was by my decision last week to back the objectively better Eagles over the scrappy Niners? If a haunting is on the table no matter what, I might as well live my truth and throw in for some more Bears magic.

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