NFL Week 14 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 14 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 4.

THURSDAY, DEC. 4

Why Tom picked the Cowboys: For the past two weeks, I've talked myself out of making plausible upset picks (Texans over the Bills in Week 12 and Bears over the Eagles last week) that wound up coming to fruition, robbing myself of glory in each case by sticking with the group that was supposed to be better over the squad that was actually playing better going into the week. Is it smart to let my emotional response to the past impact my thinking about the future? No, obviously not. But I'm not a robot -- feelings are part of the package, baby, and I really don't want to repeat this pattern for a third week in a row. Also, so help me, I really do believe in the Cowboys. They've shown an encouraging level of unflappability lately under Brian Schottenheimer, whose on-the-sleeve enthusiasm is reminiscent of the coach who helped build the NFC contender that will be on the opposite sideline Thursday. Fittingly, Dallas and Dan Campbell's crew sit next to each other in the conference standings, only the Cowboys climbed up to ninth place, winning three straight, while the Lions slid down to eighth, losing two of their last three. And though their defenses have been comparable in that span (23rd in EPA per play for Dallas, 24th for Detroit), the Cowboys' offense (third in EPA per play) has been much more dangerous than the Lions' (18th). Quinnen Williams and Dak Prescott have Dallas clicking on both sides of the ball, but -- nope! No buts! I'm riding with the hot hands on the hot team, and that's that.

SUNDAY, DEC. 7

Why Dan picked the Seahawks: The Seahawks seem like everything the Falcons wanted to be in 2025 -- a team contending for the division lead in December with a run-heavy offense and an elite defense. Seattle comes in riding high, leading the league in point differential (+133) and winning six of its last seven, with the lone loss a two-point defeat to the NFC West-leading Rams. It's the opposite vibe for the Falcons, who have dropped six of the previous seven and watched their playoff hopes go poof. Atlanta's offense has been consistent of late, scoring between 23 and 27 points in all five games since the start of November, while the defense has fallen off. The Falcons couldn't stop the Tyrod Taylor-Adonai Mitchell connection last week, so I don't like their chances against Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Also, it's hard for me to imagine this matchup working out well for Kirk Cousins, who will be facing one of the league's best defenses while potentially playing without his top receiver, Drake London, for the third week in a row.

Why Gennaro picked the Ravens: It's hard to remember a time when the vibes were this bad in Pittsburgh. The Steelers just suffered their fifth loss in seven weeks, giving up the most rushing yards in a home game in 50 years. As that humiliating defeat to Buffalo played out this past Sunday, Steelers fans unleashed “Fi-re Tom-lin” chants and mercilessly booed Renegade. Aaron Rodgers, who was briefly sidelined by a blood-inducing hit, was visibly angry with teammates during the game and aired his grievances to the press afterward. Mike Tomlin understands the mounting discontent in The 'Burgh, but it's hard to imagine the league's longest-tenured coach is thrilled seeing two of his former players piling on, with Steelers icons Ben Roethlisberger and James Harrison suggesting it could be time for a divorce. Meanwhile, it's not exactly sunshine and rainbows over in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson just hasn't looked like Lamar Jackson since his return from injury. Over the last three games, the two-time MVP has zero touchdowns and five turnovers. And the Steelers have given him fits through the years. That said, this year's Pittsburgh defense is anything but a Steel Curtain. The unit is giving up 365.1 yards per game, which currently ranks 28th in the league and dead last in the proud history of this franchise. As one of the best rivalries in football, Steelers-Ravens is never easy to handicap. But while both sides enter this game at 6-6, the visiting team seems more likely to dip below .500 -- and, quite possibly, stay there for the first losing season of the Tomlin era.

Why Ali picked the Browns: This matchup of AFC also-rans -- which features the two least-efficient offenses in the league -- surprisingly has a number of intriguing storylines, with the biggest, ironically, related to offense. Of course, I'm referring to the first NFL meeting between rookies Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. Ward, selected first overall, has had a forgettable Year 1, ranking last (or very close to it) in completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating and sacks taken. As a direct result, Tennessee has averaged the fewest points per game (14.2) and has the NFL's worst point-differential (-13.2). Sanders, the draft's 144th selection, hasn't fared that much better, albeit he's had far fewer opportunities (three games played, two starts). Although he's already connected on twice as many pass plays of 30+ yards as Cleveland totaled from Weeks 1-11 (4 to 2), he's also completed just 50 percent of his attempts and holds a negative EPA per dropback. He's also benefited from facing three of the four worst pressure units in the league (Ravens, Raiders and 49ers) to start his NFL journey; the Titans rank 24th. Ward, however, will not be as fortunate on Sunday, which leads us into Storyline No. 2: Myles Garrett. The DPOY front-runner, who captains a Browns defense that ranks fourth in pressure rate and second in yards allowed, needs just four more sacks to surpass the single-season record (Michael Strahan, T.J. Watt tied at 22.5). And then there are the draft implications (Storyline No. 3), with both teams currently holding top-five picks. See, plenty going on in this game! Ultimately, though, the subplots that matter most to the final outcome are the Titans' offensive shortcomings and the Browns' defensive dominance. Garrett & Co. are good enough to shoulder the load in this one.

Why Brooke picked the Jaguars: The AFC South is a three-horse race all of a sudden, so every divisional matchup bears a ton of weight from here on out. The Jaguars seem to have turned a corner, averaging 29.2 points per game since their Week 8 bye, third-most in the NFL in that span. That figure is nearly nine points more per game than they averaged in Weeks 1-7. In contrast, the Colts' offense has hit a bump in the road. In November, it averaged 12 points fewer per game than it did in the first two months of the season. It's hard to gauge what will happen Sunday, because, while both offenses have talented skill position players, the quarterbacks are complete wild cards. Playing with a fractured fibula, Daniel Jones' level has been a big reason for his team's recent struggles. He has seven giveaways over the last four games, a stretch in which Indy went 1-3. Trevor Lawrence's 81.6 passer rating this season ranks fourth-lowest among 33 qualified QBs, and he also ranks in the bottom 10 in completion percentage, pass yards per attempt and TD-to-INT ratio. Keep an eye on the health of Jags O-linemen Patrick Mekari and Walker Little, too.

Both of these defenses can cause some chaos. The Jags' top-ranked run defense must slow Jonathan Taylor and force Jones to win through the air. However, being without Travon Walker and Arik Armstead again wouldn't be ideal. The Colts are in the same boat, looking for their top-10 run defense to make Lawrence beat them with his arm. They'll have to do so without Sauce Gardner (calf). Whichever QB protects the ball wins this one, but who wins the turnover battle? Your guess is as good as mine. I'll take the home team that's trending up.

Why Tom picked the Commanders: Something is (probably) going to happen this Sunday that has happened just once since Oct. 6: Washington or Minnesota is going to win a game. I'm making the somewhat vibes-based choice to back the group that has shown far more fight lately. Over the past four weeks, the Vikings have been outscored by a combined 53 points, the worst differential in the NFL in that span, translating to a gulf of nearly two touchdowns per game. The Commanders' mark since Week 10 (-26) isn't necessarily all that hot, either, but it's much further in the right direction, and it reflects a pair of very narrow losses to one middling opponent (Miami) and one contender (Denver). None of the units involved in this game have been great, but two have been respectable: Washington's offense (12th in EPA per play) and Minnesota's defense (11th in EPA per play). If the Vikings' quarterback situation didn't scare me so much, I might be tempted to go with the more potent defense at home. Whether Jayden Daniels is back or Marcus Mariota gets another start, I feel far more confident placing my faith in them than J.J. McCarthy, returning to the helm of the NFL's second-worst passing attack in EPA per dropback.

Why Dan picked the Dolphins: While horrible starts basically sunk any hopes of the playoffs for both teams by midseason, these AFC East rivals are battling nonetheless. The Dolphins have won four of their last five games, while the Jets, who started the season 0-7, have won three of their last five. Now, Miami's record in road games in December or later under Mike McDaniel is 2-9, including the playoffs. But perhaps this is the right matchup for the Dolphins to break the trend. They average a league-best 176.7 rushing yards per game since Week 10, and New York ranks 25th in run defense. Of course, if Tua Tagovailoa adds to his league-leading interception tally (14), the door will blow wide open for the Jets, but Aaron Glenn's team has been remarkably inept when it comes to picking off passes. The Jets are the only defense without a single INT this season. Every other team has at least three. In fact, they are the only defense since 1940 with no INTs in their first 12 games of a season, per NFL Research. I'll take Tagovailoa to narrowly improve to 7-0 in his career as a starter against the Jets.

Why Gennaro picked the Buccaneers: At the outset of December, there are two ways to think about the team I am backing today, the 7-5 Buccaneers …

Glass half empty: Tampa Bay entered the season as a clear NFC South favorite/hipster Super Bowl pick. But suddenly, the Bucs find themselves in a divisional dogfight with the Panthers -- with games against those very Panthers in Weeks 16 and 18. Tampa lost its first three out of the bye before unspectacularly beating Arizona last week. All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs just randomly popped up on Wednesday's injury report as a DNP (oblique). Can the Bucs make it to the finish line?

Glass half full: Tampa Bay entered the season with brutal injuries. Then got hit with more. But suddenly, the Bucs find themselves getting healthy at the right time -- with three of their five remaining games coming against sub-.500 teams, including this home contest versus the playoff-ineligible Saints (who have a rookie quarterback and four big-name starters missing practice). Hulking 320-pounder Tristan Wirfs just amusingly scored his first career touchdown in Sunday's win. It's time for the Bucs to finish off their fifth straight division title.

On this matter, I'm a glass-half-full guy.

Why Ali picked the Bills: Don't even bother factoring in that the Bengals are 4-8 when thinking through this one. The mark that actually matters is 3-0: Cincinnati's 2025 record with Joe Burrow under center. The two-time Pro Bowler's return seems to have breathed life into the Bengals' spiraling season. More than 28 million of us saw that live on Thanksgiving Night, when the Bengals defense, which ranks last in both yards and points allowed per game (410 and 31.2), held the Ravens to just 14 on the scoreboard. Hard to predict whether that was a one-off performance -- juiced up by playing a familiar opponent in front of a national audience -- or if this unit has turned a corner with their QB1 back in the mix. Buffalo's defense (with the exception of Christian Benford, who's been outstanding of late) has had issues of its own, of course -- particularly against the run. If Chase Brown's hot hand continues, allowing the Bengals offense to sustain drives and help out the defense, I certainly could see Cincinnati winning on Sunday. But it's just so hard to pick against Josh Allen at home this year -- or any year, really -- and especially at this point in the NFL calendar. Since 2021, Allen is a league-best 11-1 in regular-season home games played in December/January. And at Highmark Stadium in 2025, specifically, the Bills are 5-1 and average the second-most points per game (32.5), with multiple shootout victories already on their ledger (See: Ravens in Week 1; Bucs in Week 11). So even with Buffalo's banged-up O-line, and Burrow's well-established late-season heroics, I'm leaning toward the Bills in a close one.

Why Brooke picked the Broncos: Every season, there's always a team that strings together a staggering amount of one-score wins. This year, it's Denver with a league-high eight such wins. The defense is a huge reason for that success. That unit ranks first in the NFL in a number of metrics and is on pace to tie the single-season sacks record set by the 1984 Bears (72). It's loaded with playmakers, including Nik Bonitto (10.5 sacks) and Zach Allen (NFL-high 31 QB hits) up front and Patrick Surtain II, who returned from injury last week, on the back end. Right now, outside of Brock Bowers, there's not much to be inspired about in terms of Las Vegas' offense. Geno Smith has a league-high 14 INTs, the run game ranks dead last and the Raiders are averaging fewer than 15 points per game. Even with Bo Nix remaining erratic from quarter to quarter, Denver's offense is doing enough (23.7 PPG) to outscore Las Vegas. Superb play from the offensive line has certainly helped. These divisional matchups can be unpredictable (SEE: their Week 10 meeting), but Denver has routinely shown the ability to win when faced with adversity late in games, while Las Vegas hasn't shown much of anything for the majority of 2025.

Why Ali picked the Bears: Because the Bears are a bunch of takers: They take up time. They take the ball. And they take wins -- by any and all means. But mainly because my Chicago roots won't allow me to be unbiased in what figures to be the Bears' hardest test yet, a true struggle of strength on strength. Chicago ranks fourth in average time of possession, while Green Bay ranks fifth in fewest yards allowed per play. The Bears offense has produced the most big plays in the NFL this season, while the Packers defense has given up the second-fewest. Chicago has forced an absurd 26 turnovers, while the Pack have a league-low seven giveaways. Ben Johnson's unrelenting rushing attack is averaging a soul-crushing 153.8 yards per game (2nd most), while Jeff Hafley's run-stopping unit is allowing just 98.3 (8th fewest). So why will the Bears' better be best in this potentially season-altering battle between rivals? Because of Caleb Williams. I accept that the polarizing passer will likely sail some throws and brick a couple layups in the frigid Wisconsin air this weekend. But those misses ultimately won't matter if he continues to show up in the biggest moments, as he has so many times this season. My growing confidence in No. 18 is why I expect him to accomplish on Sunday what no other Bears starting QB has been able to in the 18 seasons since the franchise last clinched the conference title: Earn career win No. 2 at Lambeau Field.

Why Tom picked the Rams: What, are you telling me Matthew Stafford and the high-powered offense will be just enough out of sync to be vulnerable against a less-imposing opponent? Or that the elite defense will be just enough off its game to give a scrappy underdog attack the breathing room to squeak out a shocker? OK, so all that actually already happened last week against the Panthers. But are you telling me it's going to happen two weeks in a row? I'm aware -- after being reminded of this fact in Ali's latest playoff-probability breakdown -- that the Cardinals have had the Rams' number lately, beating them by 31 points when these teams faced off in the desert last season. The Rams are also, after all, only human, even if they had been seemingly playing at a higher level than that before being upended in Carolina. It wouldn't be all that shocking if Arizona put a scare into Sean McVay's group. But it would be shocking enough that I can't really justify calling for anything other than one of the best teams in the league (the Rams are fifth in EPA per play on offense and fourth in EPA per play on defense) to defeat one of the worst (the Cards rank 22nd in EPA per play on offense and defense).

Why Gennaro picked the Texans: "Defense wins championships" is a simplistic saying that, quite frankly, typically doesn't have much purchase in today's offense-driven NFL. Every so often, though, a D comes along that flips the modern game on its head. Think: Seattle's "Legion of Boom" and Denver's "No Fly Zone" -- two top-ranked units that spearheaded Super Bowl triumphs. Is this Houston group, which leads the league in points and yards allowed, that kind of defense? OK, admittedly, it's more than a little presumptuous to start talking about the Lombardi Trophy with a team that doesn't currently hold a playoff spot, ranking third in its own division. But with the Texans riding a four-game win streak, having stifled the Colts and Bills over the past two weeks, it seems fair to discuss DeMeco Ryans' defense-led squad as a potential knuckleball in an AFC that feels wide open. With the established heavies coming back to the pack in 2025, could Houston ultimately emerge as the cream of the conference? Stranger things have happened. And a win in this Sunday Night Football spotlight -- on the road, against the franchise that's claimed five of the past six AFC titles -- would certainly put the rest of the conference on notice. To be clear, Kansas City is far from the supreme team we've become accustomed to, with three losses in its last four games. But it's still Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. And the venue's still Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs have lost one game since Christmas Day 2023. K.C. currently has a 34 percent chance to make the playoffs, per Next Gen Stats, but a loss would drop those postseason odds to 11 percent. That's slim-to-none territory. Can the Texans slay this beleaguered AFC beast? With a ferocious front to overwhelm Kansas City's battered offensive line, I think they can -- and will!

MONDAY, DEC. 8

Why Brooke picked the Eagles: All eyes are on Justin Herbert, who had a plate and screws inserted during a Monday surgery to stabilize his fractured left (non-throwing) hand. Backup Trey Lance will start if Herbert can't go, but Herbert plans to play ... behind a wrecked offensive line that has allowed Herbert to face 196 pressures (most in the NFL), take 97 QB hits (most) and get sacked 38 times (fourth-most). To no one's surprise, NFL Pro gives the Eagles' defense the advantage in every Chargers passing situation except for play action. But alas, news broke just before publishing on Thursday that Philly star DT Jalen Carter won't be active in this game after undergoing a procedure to help fix issues with both shoulders. This all leads to Jim Harbaugh leaning heavily on Kimani Vidal -- and maybe Omarion Hampton, who could return after missing the last two months with an ankle injury. It's hard to think that such a talented Eagles offense wouldn't be able to outscore a Chargers unit facing such an uphill battle. Yet, when you consider Kevin Patullo's unit has averaged 15.5 points per game since the Week 9 bye, it doesn't inspire much confidence. There are a lot of on-paper reasons why I shouldn't believe in Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and Co., but good teams like this don't just go away. This unit could ignite at any time, even against a defense as stout as the Chargers' group. I'm not writing off the defending champs just yet.

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