NFL Week 17 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 17 NFL picks below. Watch local and prime-time games live on NFL+ -- and, of course, catch every touchdown from every Sunday game on NFL RedZone (with NFL+ Premium).

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24.

MONDAY, DEC. 29

Why Tom picked the Rams: The Rams might be in a tough spot seeding-wise, but seeing how they rank first in EPA per play on offense and sixth on defense, they're still one of the best teams in the league. That's as true today as it was before their sudden collapse against the Seahawks last Thursday. The Falcons aren't horrible, ranking 22nd in EPA per play on offense and 19th in EPA per play on defense, and they are on a modest two-game winning streak, so a wacky home upset is not completely outside the realm of possibility. Then again, they've beaten just two playoff contenders so far: the fading Bucs two weeks ago and the Bills back in mid-October. And sure, Bijan Robinson is legit -- but so is the Rams' run defense (10th in yards allowed and EPA per carry). Matthew Stafford and Co. won't be able to get revenge on Seattle until the playoffs at the earliest, so the Falcons will have to do for now.

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Why Brooke picked the Seahawks: Both these teams dazzled us last week in their efforts to claim first place in their respective divisions, so you better believe we're in for another treat -- one that will feature Offensive Player and Rookie of the Year front-runners in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tetairoa McMillan, respectively. Most people (this writer included) will say the Seahawks are the much better team coming in, but Carolina can't be overlooked. Dave Canales' squad already has huge wins over the Rams and Packers, and Bryce Young has proven to be clutch late in games. Young has also thrived against defenses with top-10 pressure rates this season, boasting an 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio, a 105.2 passer rating and a 5-0 record in such games. Notably, the Seahawks enter this contest with the fourth-highest pressure rate (39.4) in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. Does Young have another stellar outing against an elite defense in him? It's certainly possible; I won't be shocked if he leads Carolina to its ninth victory of the season. But the Seahawks are one of the league's best teams, top to bottom. They've proven it, week in and week out, and it all starts with Sam Darnold, who has never looked more comfortable in an offense no matter the game situation.

Why Tom picked the Bengals: Because Sad Joe Burrow has gone away, at least for now, replaced last Sunday by "Having Fun" Joe Burrow, who romped to his best day (309 passing yards, 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio) since last December. And the good times should continue against the Cardinals, who rank 21st in passer rating allowed, 24th in defensive EPA per dropback and 19th in passing yards allowed per attempt. They've also lost seven straight, with an average margin of defeat over their past three games of 18.3 points. Then again, that stretch did include a run of good-to-great defenses. The last time they faced an opponent as permissive as the Bengals (30th in EPA per play on defense), they coasted to a 27-17 win over the Cowboys (32nd in EPA per play on defense), while Jacoby Brissett had one of his better outings of the year (2:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 115.1 passer rating). So maybe everyone will get to enjoy themselves (well, on offense, anyway). Still, if Burrow is really feeling it again, that is not a party I want to miss, assuming he will do everything he can to squeeze as much joy as possible out of the time he has left this season.

Why Ali picked the Steelers: Pittsburgh's defense appears to have turned a corner since being absolutely shredded by Buffalo's run game in Week 13. Over their last three contests -- all wins -- the Steelers have given up explosive runs at the sixth-lowest rate and allowed rushes over expected at the third-lowest, per Next Gen Stats. Those marks take on even more significance when you consider the ground attacks they've faced during that span: the Ravens, Dolphins and Lions. But it's not just the defense that's stepped up for Pittsburgh in recent weeks; Aaron Rodgers and the offense have averaged 27.3 points during the team's three-game streak. All of that does not bode well for a Browns squad that has the fifth-worst point margin since the season's midpoint and lost its leading rusher, Quinshon Judkins, to a gruesome leg injury in Week 16. There are a few factors that could favor Cleveland, however. For one, the Steelers will be without DK Metcalf (suspended), further hampering an already limited deep-passing attack. Second: Kevin Stefanski is 4-1 at home against Mike Tomlin since taking over the Browns gig in 2020. And finally: If the Ravens lose to the Packers on Saturday night, Pittsburgh will have already clinched the AFC North before this contest even kicks off. Which means, it's possible Tomlin could rest some of his key players for at least part of this one. Still, I'll take the side that's rounding into form at just the right time over the one currently riding a four-game skid.

Why Dan picked the Jaguars: I've enjoyed the Philip Rivers comeback, and it seems unwise to count the guy out, even after back-to-back losses. But the Colts appeared to run out of gas in the second half against the 49ers on Monday night. Is it really going to be a different story on Sunday against arguably the hottest team in the league? The Jaguars are smoking, winners of six straight, with an average margin of a whopping 18.8 points during that immaculate stretch. There's a path to victory for Indianapolis, especially if it turns long, methodical drives into touchdowns and forces Trevor Lawrence into a mistake or two ... or three. I'm just not going to predict that scenario will play out, with the QB playing squeaky-clean ball of late and Jacksonville closing in on a division title. The Colts -- once an 8-2 team that seemed destined for the postseason -- need a win to keep their faint playoff hopes alive, but I'm afraid the road for them ends here.

Why Gennaro picked the Buccaneers: What on earth is going on with the Bucs? It's like the healthier they get, the worse they play. Tampa Bay weathered an early storm of injuries with aplomb, hitting its Week 9 bye with a two-game lead in the NFC South at 6-2. But despite the subsequent returns of several key players, the team has completely come apart over the past two months, losing six of seven games to fall behind Carolina in the division race. Todd Bowles' defense has been a sieve in that span, ranking 28th in total D (368.4 ypg) and 29th in scoring D (28.4 ppg) while tying with the Bengals for dead last in yards per play allowed (6.4). But in a quarterback league, Baker Mayfield's downturn has been even more striking. A bona fide MVP candidate through his first nine games of the season, Mayfield has been one of the league's worst passers over his last six outings.

We really haven't seen this version of Baker in a Bucs uniform. And yet, he continues to outwardly exude his cocksure cool. Asked on Tuesday what gives him confidence that the team will snap out of this slump, Mayfield matter-of-factly replied, "Our back's against the wall -- pretty comfortable there." Next Gen Stats surprisingly shares the field general's assurance: Despite the fact that Carolina just beat Tampa Bay to take a one-game lead in the division, NGS still gives the Bucs better odds (58%) than the Panthers (42%) to finish on top, with the two teams set to face off in Week 18. Can Baker and Co. right this pirate ship against the Quinn Ewers-led Dolphins in Miami, setting up a de facto division title game at Raymond James Stadium? Well, I’ve picked Tampa to win every contest in its current three-game losing streak. Fourth time's the charm!

Why Gennaro picked the Patriots: Matthew Stafford remains the MVP favorite, though Drake Maye is making a compelling case for the award in a wildly efficient sophomore season. Leading the NFL in completion percentage (70.9) and ranking second -- by a hair -- in yards per attempt (8.71 to Sam Darnold's 8.73), Maye has lifted New England from worst to first in the AFC East. But the Patriots have yet to sew up the division title, with the streaking Bills hot on their heels. And seeing how New England entered this week with a decent chance to secure the AFC's No. 1 seed -- 31%, per Next Gen Stats -- Mike Vrabel shouldn't have any trouble stimulating his upstart squad against a clearly overmatched opponent. Not to mention, the Pats enjoy kicking the Jets when they're down. Vrabel's steeped in the rivalry from his playing days. Motivation won't be an issue. But health could be. New England suffered a scourge of injuries in Sunday night's comeback win at Baltimore, testing depth on both sides of the ball. That said, the Jets are bottoming out, losing by more than three touchdowns in each of the past three weeks. During that span, the Brady Cook-led offense has averaged an NFL-worst 3.6 yards per play while Aaron Glenn's defense has given up 37 points a game. Merry Christmas, New England! The Pats should roll, even in their banged-up state. Which brings me back to Maye. Having just produced his first 300-yard passing game as a pro, the 23-year-old was asked about its significance on Monday. He delivered the “I care about winning” routine like a seasoned vet. But even if Maye isn't actively chasing stats, New England's roster carnage might require him to put the team on his back and put some numbers on the board. Trevor Lawrence just dropped six touchdowns on the Jets two weeks ago. Time to pad that MVP candidacy, Drake.

Why Brooke picked the Saints: In a matchup of teams currently holding top-10 picks in next year's draft, all eyes will be on quarterbacks Cam Ward and Tyler Shough. Both rookies have shown promise in December, with Ward throwing multiple TDs in three straight games and Shough leading the Saints to three consecutive wins thanks to his efficient play and blossoming connection with Chris Olave. Kellen Moore's offense is low-key fun to watch right now, with Shough taking what defenses give him -- he's fourth in the NFL with a 68.2 completion percentage since his first start in Week 9 -- and finding his playmakers for chunk gains. New Orleans' defense has also clamped down during the win streak, allowing 14.3 points per game. Look, I like what I'm seeing from Ward and the Titans after a rough first three months. I just trust what the Saints are building a little more right now.

Why Dan picked the Raiders: Playoff hopes for these two teams died a long time ago, but you can't say there's nothing at stake in this matchup. With the Giants and Raiders tied for the worst record in the league, the loser of this game will have the inside track to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. While no outcome would surprise me here, I'm holding my nose and picking the Raiders because their offense showed life on the road against the best defense in the league last week, with a surprisingly effective running game leading the way. The fact that Las Vegas had a lead -- albeit a short-lived one -- in the second half against the Texans was one of the biggest surprises of the week. I have no real confidence Pete Carroll's squad can replicate that effort, especially with all-world tight end Brock Bowers out, which is why it's easy to envision Jaxson Dart playing one of his better games and the Giants' defensive front beating up on a weak Raiders O-line. But I'll pick the home team to narrowly escape with a consequential win.

Why Ali picked the Bills: Fresh off one of his best performances of the season, Saquon Barkley gets another favorable matchup this weekend in Buffalo's 30th-ranked rush defense. As effective as the Bills have been running the ball this season, they've been equally and oppositely awful at stopping the run. Since Week 10, Buffalo ranks bottom three in the majority of advanced rushing defense metrics, including rush EPA per carry, explosive runs allowed and rush yards over expected. You know which defense consistently appears next to the Bills' unit at the bottom of these Next Gen rankings? Yep, the Commanders D that Saquon just dusted for 132 yards.

It's also worth noting that we could see a particularly inspired Philadelphia side on Sunday, considering this might be the starters' final tune-up before the tournament begins; the Eagles have already secured the NFC East crown and would need Chicago to lose out to even have a chance at the No. 2 seed.

And even with all that said, I just can't pick against Josh Allen at Highmark -- even if he has a bum foot. The dude has won a league-best 12 consecutive regular-season home games in December/January -- a streak that dates back to the 2021 campaign. It might not be pretty, but I'm counting on my MVP pick to find a way once again.

Why Gennaro picked the Bears: This is a showdown fitting of a prime-time spotlight, with the Bears fresh off a thrilling rivalry victory and the 49ers scoring points like they're going out of style. It's a spectacular coaching matchup, too. All four play-callers -- Ben Johnson and Dennis Allen on the Chicago side, Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh for San Francisco -- have earned their paychecks in 2025, making the most of the respective cards they've been dealt. It'll be fascinating to see how they attack each other; a real clash of strategic titans. And yet, I'm drawn to one simple question: Can the 49ers stop the run? The answer, at least this season, is … Sometimes! It varies from week to week, as best evidenced by the last two Sundays of October, when San Francisco went from keeping Bijan Robinson under 3 yards per carry to allowing the run-challenged Texans to eclipse 150 rushing yards. Over the last three games, the Niners were gashed on the ground by the Browns and the Titans before they held Colts star Jonathan Taylor to his lowest yards-per-carry figure of the season (2.9). This inconsistency's not surprising, considering San Francisco has played most of the season without cornerstone defenders Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, but it's still discomforting. If the defense can get pounded on any given Sunday, well, that's a terrifying thought for this particular Sunday night. Chicago's ground game has been absolutely cooking since the early bye all the way back in Week 5. Over the last 11 games, the Bears have averaged 170.2 rushing yards per outing, with D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai forming a two-headed Monster of the Midway. So, can the 49ers stop this run? My forecast says no.

Why Brooke picked the Cowboys: Yet another quarterback change for the Commanders, as journeyman Josh Johnson will make his first start since 2021 with Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) ruled out. This is just the latest injury challenge for Washington in a season full of them. In fact, the Commanders' Week 1 starters have collectively missed 80 games in 2025 (most in the league, per NFL Research), and the offense hasn't reached 30 points since Week 3. The silver lining (maybe?) is that the Dallas defense has been horrible in December, giving up 37.3 points per game in the last three outings (all losses). Even so, it'll be tough for Johnson and Co. to keep up with a Cowboys offense that ranks second overall and fifth in scoring. Dak Prescott has thrown for more than 4,000 yards, Javonte Williams has already rushed for a career-high 1,147 yards and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens each have 1,000-plus receiving yards. I don't mean to be the Grinch here, but it's been that kind of season for Washington. The laundry list of injuries leaves Dan Quinn needing a little Christmas miracle.

Why Tom picked the Lions: Minnesota has quietly been pretty good over the course of its three-game win streak, ranking second in EPA per play on defense in that span, and -- notably, given the toothless nature of this unit for most of the season -- sixth in EPA per play on offense. The Lions, meanwhile, have been scuffling, going 3-5 over their past eight games, with a defense that sits at 29th in EPA per play in that period. As much as I might want to still treat Detroit as a member of the NFL elite, it's time to embrace the idea that this is, at least when it comes to picking games in 2025, a middling team. Add it all up, and I might have even waded into the waters of trusting J.J. McCarthy, who, after all, kick-started the Lions' slide by beating them back in Week 9 -- if he wasn't going to miss this one with a hairline fracture in his throwing hand. What we've seen of undrafted rookie backup Max Brosmer so far (he put up a 0:4 TD-to-INT ratio, 4.6 yards per throw and a 37.1 passer rating over his two significant appearances, in Weeks 13 and 16) suggests Jared Goff and Co. should have plenty of room to work, even allowing for the suppressive effects of facing Brian Flores on the road.

Why Ali picked the Broncos: I wouldn't put it past Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo to use their last prime-time showcase of the season to scheme up something special for a division rival. But even at home, this version of the Chiefs -- which just lost by 17 points to the previously two-win Titans -- shouldn't stand a chance against a Denver team eyeing a Super Bowl run. We know the Broncos have shown a propensity for playing down to their opponents this season, sporting a 7.8-point average margin of victory and a negative turnover differential (-2) in nine games against sub-.500 teams. BUT, they've won all nine, including Round 1 with Kansas City in mid-November. And that version of the Chiefs featured three-time champion Patrick Mahomes under center, not third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun. I don't mean that as a dig against the fourth-year pro. But if the AFC-leading Broncos can't capitalize against a reeling Chiefs squad and its QB3 (who's making his first NFL start) -- on a short week -- then they may have to rethink their title aspirations.

Why Gennaro picked the Texans: No quarterback faces as much pressure as Justin Herbert. Literally -- he comfortably leads the league with a 43.7% pressure rate. This isn't by design, of course. Offensive tackle has been a cursed position for the Chargers in 2025, with Pro Bowler Rashawn Slater going down for the season in training camp and second-year stud Joe Alt suffering the same fate in early November. The carnage doesn't stop there, either -- additional injuries seemingly reshuffle the Bolts' bookends on a weekly basis. Consequently, Herbert's under constant duress. And now he draws Houston, the only team this season with a pair of double-digit sack artists in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. I don't see this ending well for the Chargers QB, who has been battered all year and is currently playing through a broken left hand. Yes, Los Angeles' O-line just pitched its first shutout of the season, holding the Cowboys' punchless pass rush to zero sacks. But the Texans are a whole different animal up front, and the Chargers are only a couple of games removed from yielding seven sacks to the Eagles. I know Herbert's dying to avenge his four-pick flop against this team in the opening contest of last season's playoffs. Unfortunately, 11 months after that ghastly performance, the quarterback's protection is a nightmare. Despite a venue change from Houston to Los Angeles, the end result remains the same: This game goes to the game-wreckers.

Why Dan picked the Packers: Baltimore is the more desperate team right now -- a loss would end its playoff hopes -- but it's tough for me to envision the Packers passing up the opportunity to celebrate clinching a playoff spot -- courtesy of the Vikings' upset of the Lions on Thursday -- with a stadium full of green-and-gold-clad supporters. This is a hard game to pick because, as of press time, we don't know if Jordan Love (concussion) or Lamar Jackson (back) will play. They are dealing with ailments suffered in heartbreaking defeats last week, cloaking this matchup in uncertainty. I'd like the Ravens' chances if Jackson were close to his usual, game-breaking self, but it doesn't seem reasonable to expect that kind of performance from him as his injury-plagued season trudges on. I'm giving a slight edge to the Packers at home, but I don't have a good feel on what to expect.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Lamar Jackson is officially doubtful for Saturday's game. Jordan Love was downgraded to out on Friday after being previously listed as questionable, with Malik Willis set to start in his place.

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