NFL playoff picture: Week 18 scenarios and projected Wild Card Round matchups

Entering Week 18 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.

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• Five most consequential games of the week
• Projected Wild Card Round matchups

NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 8:50 a.m. ET on Dec. 30 unless otherwise noted below.

NFL playoff picture entering Week 18

• Broncos: The AFC West champions enter Week 18 needing either a win (vs. Chargers) or losses/ties by both the Patriots (vs. Dolphins) and Jaguars (vs. Titans) to clinch the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Should the Broncos fall to the Bolts, however, while the other two contenders both win, Denver would drop to No. 3 in the standings. In fact, per the NGS model, in the event of a Broncos loss, they're more likely to finish in third place (12%) than in second (6%).
• Patriots: With the AFC East secured and 13 wins already on their ledger, the Pats hit Week 18 guaranteed a top-three finish in the conference -- with the second seed being their most probable slot (69%). To supplant the Broncos atop the table, New England would need a better Week 18 result than Denver. On the other hand, to avoid dropping down to No. 3, the Pats either need to win/tie or have Jaguars lose/tie (vs. Titans).
• Jaguars: Jacksonville enters the season's final weekend with the widest range of outcomes of any of the remaining AFC contenders. The Jags can rise as high as No. 1 in the conference or fall as far as No. 7, depending on how the weekend plays out. But their most likely outcome is to clinch the AFC South (86%), which they can accomplish with a win/tie over the Titans or a Texans loss/tie vs. the Colts. In fact, their most probable playoff slot continues to be the three seed (58%), though they did earn one of the top two seeds in roughly 28 percent of simulations:
  • Jaguars win + Broncos or Patriots loss = No. 2 seed (25%)
  • Jaguars win + Broncos loss AND Patriots loss = No. 1 seed (3%)
• Steelers and Ravens: Thanks to the two most consequential upsets of Week 17, we'll be treated to a winner-takes-all elimination game to decide the AFC North champion -- and the conference's final playoff team. Not a bad way to wrap up the 2025 regular season.
• Texans: Houston climbed two spots in the conference hierarchy, to No. 5, over the weekend and remains in contention, with Jacksonville, for the AFC South title. However, the Texans' odds of capturing the division crown are slim (14%), with a loss/tie or Jags win/tie (vs. Titans) ending this race in their rivals' favor. Houston, then, will likely enter the dance as a wild card -- specifically, as the No. 5 seed (68%). Although the Texans could still slide a spot (or two) should they lose and either the Bills or Chargers (or both) win, the Texans at least have something beyond wild-card seeding at stake in their season finale. With L.A. and Buffalo unable to move any higher than fifth place, it's possible both of those teams rest some of their starters in advance of the tournament.
• Chargers: Their loss to the Texans on Saturday knocked them out of the running for both the AFC West title and the conference's playoff bye, meaning the sixth-seeded Bolts will not have a ton on the line in their season finale. Neither will the seventh-placed Bills, but they at least play at home against a sub.-500 team (Jets) -- not at the conference-leading Broncos. So it's not a surprise that Justin Herbert, who's been nursing a fractured left hand, will sit for Sunday's game. As a result of those variables, the model projects the Chargers will lose a spot in the standings before the playoffs begin: No. 5: 5%; No. 6: 38%; No. 7: 57%.
• Bills: Had Buffalo completed its comeback bid against the Eagles on Sunday, Josh Allen & Co. would've been playing this weekend for a shot at the AFC East title (slim) and the No. 1 seed (slimmer). Instead, the Bills -- on the wrong end of tie-breakers with L.A. and Houston -- find themselves in seventh place. But, as I mentioned in the section above, Buffalo's situation could improve before the tournament begins. Because the Bills host the three-win Jets in Week 18 while the Bolts head to top-seeded Denver, Buffalo is actually more likely to finish as either the fifth or sixth seed (61%) than the seventh (39%).

Eliminated AFC Teams

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
10. Miami Dolphins (7-9)
11. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
12. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)
13. Cleveland Browns (4-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
15. New York Jets (3-13)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)

• Seahawks and 49ers: These two NFC West rivals, both in the midst of six-game runs, will face off on Saturday night in the single most consequential matchup of the season's final weekend: The winner clinches the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye, home-field advantage throughout and the NFC West title. The loser ... well, that depends on who loses. If the 'Hawks fall, they'd be locked into the fifth seed regardless of any other outcome. However, if the Niners lose and then the Rams beat the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon, then L.A. would slide into fifth place while the 49ers drop to sixth.
• For the 49ers, capturing Saturday's contest carries an added bonus: a guarantee that all of their remaining games this season -- including a potential Super Bowl appearance -- will be played at their home stadium in Santa Clara, California.
• Bears: Chicago's heartbreaking loss at San Francisco on Sunday night not only ended the team's bid for the one seed but put its hold on the two seed in jeopardy. If the Bears lose/tie vs. the Lions this weekend and the Eagles beat the Commanders, then Chicago and Philadelphia would swap spots in the standings. The model projects Chicago as the favorite to remain in the No. 2 slot (69%), which would set up a rubber match with the seventh-seeded Packers on Wild Card Weekend.
• Eagles: Because Philadelphia lost to Chicago earlier this season, Nick Sirianni's squad must nab a better Week 18 result than the Bears to clinch the No. 2 seed. If they do, the Eagles would host Green Bay in Round 1. However, if Philly finishes third in the standings (which, at 69%, is the team's most probable outcome), the Eagles would be guaranteed an opening-round visit from either the 49ers or the Rams.
• Panthers and Buccaneers: That improbable scenario we discussed last week -- the one where Carolina clinches the South even with a loss to the Bucs in Week 18 -- seems a whole lot more plausible now. By upsetting the Rams on Monday night, the Falcons put themselves in position to finish the year at 8-9 (with a win vs. New Orleans on Sunday). If that happens, then the Panthers would take the division -- regardless of what happens in Saturday's head-to-head bout with the Bucs. Why? Because even if Tampa were to beat Carolina, it would mean all three NFC South teams end the year tied at 8-9. And in that scenario, the Panthers' 3-1 heads-up record would give them an insurmountable advantage. This wrinkle, aka the Atlanta Addendum (still workshopping the name) -- which prevented the Bucs' win-and-in opportunity on Saturday -- is why Carolina's odds to rep the South in the NFC playoff bracket improved by roughly 30 percentage points following the Falcons' Monday night stunner.
• Rams: The 49ers' narrow win over the Bears on Sunday night officially eliminated the Rams from division contention. L.A. then worsened its situation on Monday night by falling to the Falcons. Those two outcomes could result in the Rams being cemented into sixth place by Saturday night. If the Niners upset the Seahawks, then the Rams will have nothing to gain in their matchup with the Cardinals on Sunday. However, if the Seahawks prevail, then the Rams, with a win over Arizona, would move into fifth place. In that scenario, L.A. would play at Carolina/Tampa (potential No. 4 seeds) instead of Chicago/Philadelphia (potential No. 3 seeds) during Wild Card Weekend. I imagine most Rams fans would rather see their team take on a squad hovering at or below .500 than face the Bears' offense or the Eagles' defense to open the tournament.
• Packers: Green Bay is locked into the seventh seed and will play at Chicago or Philadelphia when the postseason begins.

Eliminated NFC Teams

8. Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
9. Detroit Lions (8-8)
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1)
12. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (6-10)
14. Washington Commanders (4-12)
15. Arizona Cardinals (3-13)
16. New York Giants (3-13)

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Top 5 most consequential games of Week 18

If you're seeking high drama, the games below are the ones to track, featuring the most notable blend of seeding/division implications and combined playoff leverages in Week 18.

Projected Wild Card Round matchups

Round 1 of AFC playoffs

Round 1 of NFC playoffs

NOTE: The projected NFC field is not as clean as the AFC picture because Seahawks-49ers is so tight (54% to 46% in Seattle's favor). If those numbers hold, though, and Seattle earns the No. 1 seed, then the 49ers are more than twice as likely to finish as the sixth seed (39%) than they are the fifth seed (15%). In fact, of the three eligible teams for the No. 5 slot, the Niners' probability is by far the lowest (Seahawks, 46%; Rams, 39%). So while the Rams have the highest overall odds to finish in sixth place (61%), in the event the Seahawks claim the top spot in the conference, L.A. is then most likely to enter the tournament as the fifth seed.

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