NFL Week 10 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 10 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 6.

SUNDAY, NOV. 9

Why Dan picked the Colts: Before the AFC South leaders get to enjoy a bye, they face a tough task. They're being tested -- looking to rebound from an ugly, turnover-laden loss -- with a trip overseas to play a Falcons team desperate for a win. I’m expecting Shane Steichen -- the Coach of the Year front-runner -- to put things back together for the Colts in Berlin. This matchup features Indianapolis’ No. 1 scoring offense against the Falcons’ top-ranked pass defense. If the worst version of Daniel Jones shows up for the second week in a row, Atlanta will have a great chance to end its three-game losing streak. A note from NFL Research stood out to me, though: The No. 1 scoring offense has won 10 of the last 11 meetings against the top-ranked pass defense dating back to 2007. The Colts also have the benefit of unleashing Jonathan Taylor against a vulnerable run defense, and they will be enjoying a mighty boost on defense after this week’s acquisition of Sauce Gardner. When the Falcons, coming off a tough road loss of their own, have played consecutive games away from home under Raheem Morris -- including his 11-game stint as interim head coach in 2020 -- they have a 1-3 record in the latter tilt with a point differential of -73, losing twice by 30 or more points. Indy should bounce back.

Why Brooke picked the Panthers: Winning four of their last five, including a road upset of the Packers last week, the Panthers are riding a red-hot run game led by Rico Dowdle. The veteran back has been incredible in his three starts, averaging 173 rush yards and 204.7 scrimmage yards in those games (all wins). Carolina's not likely to lose many games if Dowdle keeps this up, especially not one against a New Orleans defense that's allowing the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs in 2025. Expect another big outing from the Panthers' sudden star. Bryce Young also has made timely plays of late, leading a nine-play, 40-yard drive to set up a game-winning field goal last week. It's hard to believe the 1-8 Saints will turn things around right now, especially on offense. They scored just 10 points and had a season-low 224 total offensive yards in Tyler Shough's first career start last week. They also just traded away Rashid Shaheed, who caught a team-high five of Shough's 15 completions in that loss. Carolina is in position to take care of business and put more pressure on the division-leading Bucs.

Why Ali picked the Bears: The Giants have been floundering since their resounding upset of the Eagles in Week 6, giving up at least 33 points and 140-plus yards on the ground in each of their last three games -- all losses. Bad somehow gets worse for the G-Men this weekend, when they’ll face the league’s second-ranked rushing offense (No. 1 since Week 6). While Big Blue has looked increasingly deflated, Chicago has found new life behind a resurgent run game. Epic meltdowns from a year ago have transformed into near-epic meltdowns in 2025, with the Bears finding themselves on the right side of two nail-biters over their last four games. Still, Chicago is far from a complete package, with the defense ranking near the bottom of the league in several major categories, including points per game (28.4) and yards per game (26th). The unit’s one saving grace has been the takeaway; the Bears have forced an NFL-best 19 turnovers this year. If the defense can steal an extra possession or two on Sunday, I trust Ben Johnson and the ground game to deliver against the Giants' front. Expect a lot of points and possibly some snow (!) in this NFC battle.

Why Tom picked the Texans: Because I spent too long thinking about this blurb and how little I trust Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville's inconsistent attack to hold up against Houston's fearsome defense. Lawrence is averaging well under 7 yards per throw for the first time since his rookie season, and I'm not sure if Jakobi Meyers is going to take off right away in his first game with the team, especially with Derek Stingley Jr. roaming around out there. I was all set to explain why, despite these factors working in the home team's favor, I could not take the Texans because of backup QB Davis Mills, who will be starting for C.J. Stroud (concussion), thus limiting Houston's offense to the point that the Jaguars could pull off a road win with a flash play or two from Lawrence. After all, Lawrence already helped squeak out a 17-10 victory over the Texans in Jacksonville in Week 3, despite logging the eighth-worst passer rating (56.5) of his career in that game. But the Jags' defense has softened since then, and Houston's has further solidified, and I can't shake the feeling that Lawrence and Co. will struggle to stand up to the heat.

Why Gennaro picked the Bills: Because I just picked Buffalo to make Super Bowl LX, and Super Bowl teams don't lose this game. More directly, Sean McDermott's Bills don't lose this game. The franchise owns a 16-2 record against Miami since the head coach arrived in 2017, having logged the most recent win a couple months ago in Buffalo. That Thursday night game was surprisingly competitive, but it’s hard to envision a tight contest this time around, given the respective states of these two teams. On the vibes front, the Dolphins just divorced their general manager, forcing the the head coach and quarterback to talk job security. Meanwhile, up north, the Bills just defeated the AFC’s preeminent power, allowing the head coach and quarterback to fawn over co-workers. On the field of play, the fickle Fins have scored six points in two of the last three weeks, while the Bills’ top-ranked offense has been cooking since the Week 7 bye. Now, James Cook’s addition to Wednesday’s injury report is a foot/ankle situation that merits monitoring, given that he plays the starring role in Buffalo’s wildly efficient ground game. That said, Josh Allen just surgically dismantled Kansas City through the air, so I’m thinking the reigning MVP will be just fine if he’s asked to carry more of the offensive load on Sunday, especially going against this injury-riddled, overmatched Miami secondary. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: Cook was listed as a full practice participant and was not given a designation on the Friday injury report.)

Why Brooke picked the Ravens: The Vikings are 3-4 against the Ravens all time. What's strange is this: In the three seasons Minnesota won, it made the NFC Championship Game. In the four seasons it lost, its head coach was fired. Now, I see no scenario where Kevin O'Connell is looking for work any time soon. The other outcome also feels pretty unlikely at this juncture, too. That said, the 4-4 Vikings are coming off a promising outing in which the defense dominated up front and J.J. McCarthy made enough plays to secure a division win over Detroit. McCarthy now runs into a Ravens defense that's been on a heater since Week 6, allowing just 13 points per game, second in the NFL in that span, after giving up 35.4 in Weeks 1-5. The good news for the young QB is Baltimore has recorded just 11 sacks, so he should have time to work in the pocket and find Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The Vikings are taking steps in the right direction, and Brian Flores' defense made a big statement last week with the return of Andrew Van Ginkel, applying constant pressure on Jared Goff. Unfortunately, Goff is a much different QB than two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, the ultimate chess piece. Is it possible Minnesota's physical, blitz-heavy front stalls Baltimore's pass game? Yes. Is it also possible that the Vikes' defense executes its plan well, yet Jackson -- joined by future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry in the backfield -- still takes over the game? Yes.

Why Tom picked the Browns: I kind of can't believe I did. In a lot of ways, the logic is the same as the last time I backed Cleveland, against the Dolphins in Week 7. Dillon Gabriel and the Browns' offense don't inspire any more confidence now than they did then. Of course, the Jets somehow inspire less confidence on both sides of the ball, as a bottom-seven team in EPA per play on both offense and defense, per Next Gen Stats. Which brings me back to where I was three weeks ago: Cleveland's defense continues to rip. Regardless of who starts at QB for Gang Green, the Browns will not be nearly as hospitable as the Bengals were when they allowed Justin Fields and Co. to rack up 500 yards in the Jets' first win of the season. The road setting does make me a bit uneasy, along with the status of Carson Schwesinger's ankle. But if I'm going to go with anyone in this game, it's going to be the side with the proven impact players (Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward) and (though I think the moves were smart in the long term!) not the side that just sent two of those (Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams) packing.

Why Dan picked the Patriots: In a battle between two squads that seem evenly matched, it’s tough for me to pick against a team that’s at home and coming off a bye, but YOLO. The week off gave the Buccaneers a chance to rest. Yet, they are still far from full strength due to injuries, and Baker Mayfield was not playing his best prior to the break. Meanwhile, the Patriots have won six games in a row and are making history on both sides of the ball. Despite some up-and-down pass protection, Drake Maye has posted 200-plus pass yards and a passer rating of 100 or better in each of his last eight games, which is tied for the longest such streak within a season in NFL history. On defense, New England has not allowed a running back to reach 50 rush yards in a game, the longest streak to begin a season by any team in the Super Bowl era. I respect Tampa Bay’s grit, but I’m not sure it has enough healthy firepower on offense to prevail in this one.

Why Gennaro picked the Seahawks: Seattle just flew across the country and beat the brakes off Washington on the prime-time stage, so it’s tempting to think the Seahawks return home in this spot and obliterate a sub-.500 foe. But these Cardinals play everyone close. Each of their first seven games were decided by one score, with the five straight losses coming by a combined 13 points. Of course, this past Monday night, Arizona ended that skid with a 10-point win at Dallas. The Cards’ aerial attack has been far more potent with Jacoby Brissett under center for the past three games, and now the job is his for at least four more weeks, with Kyler Murray hitting injured reserve on Wednesday. If we’re talkin' passing games, though, Seattle’s has been a well-oiled machine all season, with Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba instantly vibing to dynamic effect. And now the Seahawks just traded for Rashid Shaheed, reuniting the explosive downfield threat with bomb-throwing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Remember the fireworks those two created early last season in New Orleans, before Shaheed’s season-ending knee injury? So, once more, it’s easy to envision a blowout, especially considering Seattle’s defense is the most dominant unit in this game. But again, these Cardinals play everyone close -- including the division-rival 'Hawks, who eked out a three-point road win over Arizona in Week 4. I see a similar result on Sunday.

Why Tom picked the Rams: Because we're just going to make this a normal one, OK, guys? I know the 49ers have somehow scratched out a winning record -- including a 3-0 mark within the NFC West -- despite losing basically every important player to injury at one point or another. I know that the last time these squads met was also the last time San Francisco beat a good team this year, back in Week 5, when the Niners survived some early-season Thursday Night Football wackiness. And I know each of the past five matchups in this series has been decided by one score or less. But this one's not going to come down to some random fumble or botched kick or head-scratching coaching decision. The Rams are clearly the better, healthier group, with one of the more capable QBs in the game at the controls and a defense that ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play headed into Week 10 (per Next Gen Stats). The Niners, meanwhile, have basically run out of pass rushers and are so short on playmakers that Mac Jones is fourth on the team in offensive touches -- with 27 carries. San Francisco's juju is going to run out, at least for this week, and the team that should win will win.

Why Ali picked the Lions: The Commanders enter this weekend’s matchup on the heels of one of the more demoralizing outings in recent franchise history. Washington’s defense added insult to the numerous injuries the team sustained Sunday night, allowing 31 first-half points to the Seahawks’ top-10 offense. Counting on Dan Quinn’s group to suddenly snap out of its season-long funk, against Dan Campbell’s ruthless 11th-ranked unit, seems unwise -- even with Detroit’s offense in a bit of a mini-slump, as well. But let’s say the Commanders are able to keep Jared Goff & Co. below their season averages … Can they also rely on Marcus Mariota to lead multiple TD drives (probably at least three) against the NFL’s eighth-ranked defense? I guess it’s possible. But getting that level of complementary ball has been rare for the Commanders this season. Then there’s the fact that the Lions lost last Sunday, too, which makes me that much more confident in them this week. Why? Because Detroit hasn’t dropped back-to-back regular-season games in more than three years -- the longest active streak in the NFL. Not only do the Lions rebound fast under DC, but they tend to punish folks after an L, winning by an average of 16.6 points. While I don’t expect the Lions’ run to end on Sunday, the uncertainty along their O-line -- LG Christian Mahogany is out, while tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell were DNPs on Wednesday -- is worth watching.

Why Brooke picked the Steelers: Sunday marks Aaron Rodgers' first career game at SoFi Stadium, which the well-traveled Terrible Towel twirlers will love. But much of the attention in this contest will likely be on the matchup when Rodgers is on the sideline: Pittsburgh's defense against a Los Angeles offense that has a banged-up offensive line. Justin Herbert is now without tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt for the season, and the statuses of tackle Bobby Hart and guard Mekhi Becton remain uncertain for Sunday. The Trevor Penning trade helps, but time will tell just how much he impacts the unit. Alt's absence is massive, as Herbert is already one of the most-pressured QBs in the NFL. The veteran signal-caller has taken 28 sacks (third-most in the league) and 80 QB hits (most), while Pittsburgh's defense has registered the third-most sacks (27) and second-most QB hits (66). This could get ugly if Herbert is regularly under duress. It should also be noted that Mike Tomlin said Jalen Ramsey will continue to work the safety position after thriving there in Week 9. The Steelers' offense has left plenty to be desired -- where, oh where, is the run game? -- but it seems to be finding something with Rodgers under center. He has posted a 95-plus passer rating in each of his last six games, after all. The Chargers' defense is no slouch, though, ranking sixth in total yards allowed, third against the pass and second in passer rating allowed, so don't expect Pittsburgh to run away with it. I do see the Steelers prevailing in a close one due to the massive challenge its defense presents a Chargers front that's trying to survive.

MONDAY, NOV. 10

Why Dan picked the Eagles: The last time we saw Jordan Love play against Philadelphia, he threw three interceptions in a game that ended the Packers’ season. Now he’s looking to avenge that crushing defeat without his most important weapon, TE Tucker Kraft, who suffered an ACL tear in Green Bay’s stunning loss to the Panthers. I don’t like the timing of this matchup for the first-place team in the NFC North. The Eagles filled some holes on defense before the trade deadline and have never lost coming off a bye in the regular season since Nick Sirianni was hired as head coach in 2021. Plus, their running game finally woke up to the tune of 276 yards when they last took the field. In that same stretch, we’ve seen some cracks emerge in the Packers’ run defense, with the team allowing 5 yards per carry in the past two weeks. The inconsistency of the Pack this season leaves me unsure of what to expect from them. I lean slightly in Philly’s favor, given the circumstances.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Gennaro picked the Broncos: As a short-week showdown between division rivals, this matchup could be more compelling than it appears at first blush. And in this moment, two of the most interesting individuals in this island game just happen to be a pair of second-year pros who were selected with consecutive picks in the 2024 NFL Draft: Broncos QB Bo Nix (taken 12th overall two Aprils ago) and Raiders TE Brock Bowers (13th). Both enjoyed success in Year 1 -- Bowers finished second behind Jayden Daniels in last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, while Nix placed third -- creating great expectations for Year 2. However, each has experienced something of a roller-coaster ride in 2025. Bowers, who earned first-team All-Pro honors as a rookie, initially picked up right where he left off, piling up 103 receiving yards in his first three quarters of action. But a knee injury suffered late in Las Vegas’ season-opening win at New England immediately compromised (and eventually sidelined) the star tight end. Finally healed last week, Bowers returned to the lineup and promptly posted one of the most dominant stat lines of the season: 13 targets, 12 receptions, 127 yards and three touchdowns. Conversely, Nix’s turbulence has been more intermittent. Basically, he underwhelms for the first three quarters (SEE: 81.7 passer rating, 10:5 TD-to-INT ratio) before flipping the switch in the fourth (105.3 passer rating, 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio, four game-winning drives). With all of that in mind, here's how the TNF script plays out in my mind's eye: A healthy Bowers bedevils the Broncos' Pat Surtain II-less secondary ... before Nix ultimately makes enough plays at winning time to give Denver its fifth one-score victory in six weeks, extending the overall win streak to seven games.

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