NFL Week 7 picks: Will Cowboys and Colts pull off upsets? Rams or Jaguars in London?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 7 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 16.

SUNDAY, OCT. 19

Why Ali picked the Rams: One of the best London matchups in recent memory, Rams-Jaguars has the potential to shine on the international stage ... as long as neither team looks like it did in Week 6. After the high of their stunning last-minute comeback over the Chiefs in Week 5, the Jags were humbled by the Seahawks on Sunday. They were dominated in the trenches, unable to run the ball effectively or protect Trevor Lawrence in the pocket. The Rams turned in a similarly unimpressive performance in one of the season's uglier wins, producing their fewest total yards (241) and lowest yards per play (4.7) of the year against a hurting Ravens squad. For Jacksonville to get back on track, it has to plug up its pass defense and manufacture a pass rush -- two tough tasks made that much tougher with NFL interceptions leader Devin Lloyd (calf) sidelined. The Jags, and their zone-heavy scheme, rank 30th in pass yards allowed per game (256.3), which doesn't match up well against Matthew Stafford, who has thrown for the third-most yards this season against zone coverage (1,181) and is 11-0 against bottom-five pass defenses since 2021, per NFL Research. Whether he'll have similar success without Puka Nacua (ankle) is a fair question -- especially considering his connection with Davante Adams remains a work in progress. In a game that I think will come down to the wire, the Rams make one more play to escape Wembley with a win.

Why Brooke picked the Bears: The Bears are riding a three-game win streak after beginning the season 0-2, and the difference in the team's play during those two streaks has been night and day:

• First two games (0-2): 22.5 PPG, 39.5 PPG allowed, -2 turnover differential.
• Last three games (3-0): 27 PPG, 20.7 PPG allowed, +10 turnover differential.

The Bears are in position to keep this trend up against a Saints team that ranks 28th in scoring offense and 25th in points allowed. Spencer Rattler is playing clean football at least. He boasts a 68.5 completion percentage and is the only QB in the league with at least 200 attempts and one or fewer INTs. Unfortunately, drops and a failure to convert in the red zone have limited Kellen Moore's unit. Chicago's ability to force turnovers (second in the NFL with 12 takeaways) could play a huge factor in Caleb Williams and the offense getting more opportunities. This unit is beginning to find a groove under Ben Johnson, with Luther Burden III getting more involved and D'Andre Swift eclipsing 100 rush yards last week. The Bears, who enter the week at 3-2 and in last place in the NFC North, should stay in the win column -- putting some major pressure on the rest of the division.

Why Tom picked the Browns: For the novelty. Nobody in this group predicted a Cleveland win in any of the first six weeks of the season, and the schedule isn't exactly overflowing with obvious opportunities to do so again, unless someone feels bold enough to try guessing when the Browns might reenact Week 3's stunning upset of the Packers. They do get to play the Jets in Week 10, but that will be on the road, and Week 14's home date with the Titans is basically an eternity away. So let's embrace the certainty of Sunday, when we know Kevin Stefanski's crew gets to welcome the scuffling Dolphins to town. And there is one unit that stands above all the lost-season drama and bottom-of-the-league rankings attached to both squads: Cleveland's defense, which is performing like it's part of a team in the thick of its competitive window, holding opponents to 4.7 yards per play, the fourth-best mark in the NFL entering Week 7. The flip side of the equation, of course, is that the offense is so limited, it's managing to gain even less than that (4.1 yards per play). But Quinshon Judkins should find enough room to run on Miami (allowing a tantalizing 5.6 yards per rush) and push the Browns past Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins' inconsistent attack.

Why Tom picked the Chiefs: They're back, baby! And on Sunday, they're about to be even more back somehow, because Rashee Rice is set to make his season debut, marking the first time ever that he, Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy will be on the field in the same regular-season game. Patrick Mahomes might think he's hallucinating after having to make the best of a patchwork receiver corps for too long. The timing of this matchup, coming after a prime-time win over Detroit, lines up perfectly for the Chiefs to recreate a classic narrative thread from the latter days of the Patriots' dynasty: look beatable in the early goings, then ease back into Super Bowl-contending shape. The Raiders have a few things going for them, including the presence of Ashton Jeanty and Maxx Crosby and, potentially, the absence of Josh Simmons on Kansas City's O-line. But they've only beaten the Andy Reid-coached Chiefs four times in 24 previous tries. Do they look ready to get win No. 5, with Brock Bowers potentially missing another game? I mean, do they even look ready to top 20 points, which they've only done twice this season? Because otherwise, it's going to be awful hard for Vegas to gum up the Chiefs' mini redemption arc.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: There's just no breathing room in the NFC North, and sand is running out of the hourglass for Minnesota to figure things out offensively. Fortunately, it had the bye week to get some key players healthy. However, J.J. McCarthy isn't yet "100 percent," so it could be Carson Wentz facing the team that drafted him in the place where the Eagles won the franchise's first Super Bowl -- with an injured Wentz watching from the sideline. That should be plenty of fuel for Wentz's fire. It'll help if guard Donovan Jackson, tackle Brian O'Neill and backup center Michael Jurgens -- all of whom have practiced in some capacity this week -- are able to play. They'll need to be on their P's and Q's with Jalen Carter back for Philly. Regardless, expect Wentz to lean on Justin Jefferson, who is averaging nearly four more catches per game and 45 more yards per game with Wentz at QB than McCarthy this season. Another major storyline here is Philly's offensive struggles in back-to-back losses. OC Kevin Patullo wants to run the ball more -- and honestly, he should. It's a crime that Saquon Barkley has rushed for fewer than 90 yards in all six games this season. This could be the week the Eagles jump-start their ground attack, with Minnesota ranking in the bottom third against the run. Brian Flores' unit has struggled without leaders Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel, but if both of them are healthy and on the field Sunday, the defense might just keep the questions about Philly's offense swirling for another week.

Why Dan picked the Panthers: Moving to 4-3 might not be a banner achievement in the NFL, but let's not understate the opportunity in front of Dave Canales' team. It's been four years since Carolina had a record of .500 or better this late in the season. The Panthers haven't had a winning record entering Week 8 since 2019. The only people standing in the way of ending that streak are the Jets, aka the first team since at least 1930 with one or fewer takeaways and no wins through their first six games of a season, per NFL Research. Gang Green came within striking distance of an upset against the Broncos in London last week and is going to notch Aaron Glenn's first victory as a head coach eventually (perhaps next week against the Bengals). I'm just not expecting the Jets to keep up with a Panthers offense that is getting healthier, especially with New York's top offensive weapon, WR Garrett Wilson, suffering a knee injury that has his status for Sunday in doubt.

Why Ali picked the Patriots: "Is it interesting or important?" That's how Patriots coach Mike Vrabel categorized his upcoming meeting with his former team -- the one that fired him less than two years ago after a six-season stretch that included three playoff berths, an AFC title game appearance and the 2021 Coach of the Year award. I'd argue this weekend's matchup is both interesting and important. How the reeling Titans and their 32nd-ranked offense respond in the wake of Brian Callahan’s firing will be fascinating to see unfold. How the AFC East-leading Patriots perform against an opponent they outmatch in most meaningful metrics could be extremely consequential to the AFC playoff race. Vrabel-run teams take pride in being fundamentally sound (Hey, no fumbles lost last week!) and physically punishing. Regardless of what Vrabel says publicly, I suspect the coach -- who, in six weeks, has already amassed as many wins in New England as Tennessee has totaled since his departure -- would very much like to punish his old employer. If his players follow his lead, it could be a long afternoon for Mike McCoy and Co. Speaking of Mike McMcoy … For those of you wondering about the potential for an interim-coach bump, well, turns out that's not really a thing. Since 2000, interim coaches are 6-17 when facing a team with a winning record in their first game in charge, losing on average by more than a touchdown. You can thank NFL Senior Researcher Dante Koplowitz-Fleming for that juicy nugget.

Why Gennaro picked the Broncos: The Broncos lead the league in sacks, QB hits and pressure rate. Giants QB Jaxson Dart has a 48.6 passer rating when under pressure -- the fifth-worst mark in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. This feels like a recipe for rookie wreckage, especially considering Dart committed three turnovers in his first road start two Sundays ago at New Orleans. Denver's defense is a whole different animal, entering Week 7 with 10 more sacks than any other team. Nik Bonitto headlines the unit's pocket destruction as an emerging Defensive Player of the Year candidate with eye-popping juice off the edge. And yet, Bonitto doesn't even have the fastest get-off on the team -- that'd be Jonathon Cooper, whom NGS clocks at an NFL-best 0.72 seconds. Now, the Giants counter this electric edge-rushing duo with one of the game's best blind-side protectors in Andrew Thomas and a steady presence at right tackle in Jermaine Eluemunor. Those bookends could hold up. Unfortunately for New York, Denver's pass rush isn't limited to the perimeter. Zach Allen, John Franklin-Myers and others bring waves of pressure on the interior -- and that's where this Giants line looks gettable, especially if center John Michael Schmitz is a no-go after leaving last week's game with a concussion. Dart has given the G-Men new life, but I'm afraid Denver's ferocious front is about to make the 22-year-old's Sunday a living hell.

Why Brooke picked the Colts: The Colts enter this road tilt with the No. 1 scoring offense (32.3 points per game) after having punted just 10 times, tied for the fewest by any team through six games since 1950. Daniel Jones is playing the best football of his career, Jonathan Taylor leads the league in most rushing categories and Tyler Warren is making an early case for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. There's not much this unit isn't excelling at right now. It's not great for a Chargers defense that has allowed 27 points in consecutive games. Justin Herbert and Co. must find a way to keep pace, with the league's fourth-best scoring defense standing in the way. In an effort to avoid pressure -- an area in which Herbert has struggled -- look for the Chargers to dink and dunk their way into short-yardage situations on third down. Extending drives is essential to keeping the Colts' offense off the field. I believe L.A. can do that for a while, but what I keep coming back to in this matchup is Jonathan Taylor. Specifically, his ability to move the chains and wear down opponents. He leads the NFL in rush yards after contact and forced missed tackles on run plays, while the Chargers defense has a 27.4 percent missed tackle rate on run plays (sixth-highest in the NFL) and is allowing 3.7 yards after contact per carry (fifth-most), per Next Gen Stats. Taylor tips the scales Indy's way and lifts the Colts to 6-1.

Why Ali picked the Packers: The Cardinals posted their best offensive showing of the season in Week 6, putting up 27 points and 400 total yards in a narrow loss to the AFC-leading Colts. Normally, a performance like that would at least serve as a moral victory -- something the unit could build off of going forward. But Arizona's breakout game arrived with QB2 Jacoby Brissett under center, not Kyler Murray, and with WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion) sidelined for the entire second half, setting the stage for a potential QB controversy in the desert. (FWIW, Jonathan Gannon was quick to commit to Murray as his starter when healthy.) Brissett has proven over his career to be a top-end backup, but expecting him to duplicate last Sunday's performance this weekend -- against an even better defense -- seems unfair. If he were able to produce at that level consistently, he'd be No. 1 on the depth chart at one of the other 31 clubs. Right? So, whether Brissett makes his second start of the campaign or Murray returns from his foot injury, I'm not sure we can count on a similarly prolific day from Arizona's offense. Their opponent, on the other hand, has been one of the league's most explosive and consistent operations this year (outside of one very poor showing in Cleveland). Jordan Love & Co. have scored 27-plus points in four of their five games, rank eighth in yards per play and lead the league in third-down conversion percentage. Stranger things have happened already this season (to Green Bay, alone), but the Packers are comfortably the more trustworthy outfit in this matchup.

Why Dan picked the Commanders: When the Cowboys are playing this season, there's a good chance the game is a shootout. I don't see that style of play working out all that well for them. This year's Dallas squad has already earned an ignominious place in NFL history, becoming the sixth team to score 175-plus points but have just two or fewer wins in their first six games of a season. Allowing 30-plus points per game is generally a losing proposition, and that's particularly true when the opposing quarterback is as talented as Jayden Daniels. Prior to last week's game, the Commanders were 10-2 when scoring 24 or more points in Daniels' starts, including last season's playoffs. A three-turnover night, including what turned out to be a catastrophic fumble late, proved to be insurmountable against the Bears, and such sloppy play could easily hand the Cowboys a signature win on Sunday. Dallas is getting healthier, but so is Washington -- both CeeDee Lamb and Terry McLaurin could be back for this game. I'm expecting a cleaner operation from Dan Quinn's crew in his return to his former workplace.

Why Tom picked the Falcons: I believe the 49ers have the moxie to play hard behind whichever quarterback is healthy enough to suit up. They have a coaching staff that can scheme every last ounce of production from whoever takes the field. And they'll be at home against an opponent traveling from the other side of the country on short rest. There's just one problem: stopping Bijan Robinson (who just showed he knows how to really give an underequipped run defense a hard time) despite the absence of linebacker extraordinaire Fred Warner. Oh, and they have to slow Michael Penix Jr. (who's building some momentum) despite basically being unable to generate pressure in the three games since Nick Bosa went down (20% pressure rate in that span, worst in the NFL). And, yes, they'll also have to figure out how to reach the end zone enough times against a defense that ranks first in yards allowed and seventh in scoring going into Week 7. OK, so the Niners have more than just one problem, which is tough luck for them, since it seems like the Falcons are in the business of whittling down their flaws lately. Give Raheem Morris a second consecutive prime-time showcase victory.

MONDAY, OCT. 20

Why Gennaro picked the Lions: Picking against Baker Mayfield right now feels like fading the Harlem Globetrotters. Am I anti-fun? No -- I can't get enough of Baker's barnstorming theatrics. But these Lions aren't the Washington Generals. Now, Detroit does have issues -- namely, a secondary that's missing both starting corners (D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold are injured) and a Pro Bowl safety (Brian Branch is suspended). That amount of deterioration in that area of the defense would lead you to believe Baker's poised to put on another show. But even if Mike Evans is able to return from the hamstring injury that has cost him the past three games, the quarterback's supporting cast remains seriously compromised, mitigating the Lions' coverage concerns. Not to mention, Dan Campbell hasn't lost back-to-back games since October of 2022, while Jared Goff typically torches opposing defenses at home. Granted, Mayfield and Co. stormed Ford Field and beat the Lions early last season, with Goff throwing a pair of picks in one of his most erratic throwing days in memory. But Detroit's QB is absolutely dealing these days, leading the NFL in completion percentage (75.9) and touchdown passes (14) while boasting a league-best 137.1 passer rating against the blitz. That last figure is particularly relevant to this matchup, given the chaos Todd Bowles aims to create. Tampa Bay deftly navigated roster carnage over the first six weeks of the season -- jumping out to an NFC-best 5-1 record, with four of those wins coming by three points or fewer -- but how much longer can Baker and the boys defy gravity? It's time for the Bucs to come back to earth.

Why Gennaro picked the Texans: After making his first Pro Bowl last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has elevated his game to a whole other level in Year 3. Primarily a slot receiver in his first two NFL campaigns, Smith-Njigba has taken more than three-quarters of his snaps out wide this fall. And no matter where he lines up, the man is cooking all comers, skillfully running the full route tree like a 10-year vet. With a healthy 16.6-yard average on his 42 catches, he leads the league with 696 receiving yards. That's a whopping 44.7 percent of Seattle's team yardage total through the air, representing the highest individual share in the NFL today. In an offense that is seriously struggling to run the football, JSN's operating as a one-man playmaking army. It's inspiring … but also concerning. What happens to the Seahawks' offense if you take away the WR1? That question could be answered on Monday night, when the Texans come to town with one of the league's truly elite cover men. Derek Stingley Jr. earned first-team All-Pro honors last season, fully realizing the immense NFL potential everyone saw back in 2019, when the cornerback played a starring role on LSU's loaded national championship team as a true freshman. Since the beginning of last season, Stingley owns a league-best 51.6 passer rating against (per NGS, min. 50 targets). Fully erasing JSN is an unreasonable ask, but I think Stingley can contain the league's leading receiver, forcing the rest of Seattle's offense to take up the fight against Houston's feisty D. And that seems like a losing battle for the home team.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Dan picked the Steelers: Losing in respectable fashion feels like the ceiling for Cincinnati heading into this matchup. I know the team found a spark in the second half of Joe Flacco's Bengals debut last week, but Cincy still lost by nine points or more for the fourth consecutive game. Zac Taylor's defense provides almost no margin for error to the offense by giving up 30.5 points per contest. The Steelers have profited more than any other team from picking up yards after the catch this season, and it just so happens that the Bengals have allowed the most YAC in the NFL (999) and the most YAC per reception (7.2) in 2025. Oh, and the home team's best defensive player, Trey Hendrickson, is dealing with a hip injury that could hinder, if not sideline, him on a short week. We only need to look back a week for evidence that major upsets are possible, especially on Thursday night. That said, I don't believe Cincinnati has the defense to create much disruption, let alone chaos, in this one. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: Hendrickson is not expected to play in Thursday night's game, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.)

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