NFL Divisional Round: Biggest immediate question for advancing/eliminated playoff teams

Is the Broncos' offense ready to do its part?

Denver has been the best team in the AFC largely because its defense has made life difficult for most opponents. No team was better at stifling opponents in the red zone, and the Broncos also set a franchise record with 68 sacks. Of all the teams that qualified for the postseason, Denver was one of the four with a defense that could carry it to a championship (along with Seattle, Philadelphia and Houston). The Broncos' offense unfortunately does not inspire the same confidence, with the questions starting with second-year quarterback Bo Nix. He’s developed a reputation for being wildly inconsistent, as he can look awful for two or three quarters before producing clutch play after clutch play when the outcome hangs in the balance. In fact, one of the crazier statistics of this year is that Nix led the league with 612 passing attempts despite ranking 26th in the league with an 87.8 passer rating. It’s also apparent that he’ll have to keep throwing it often because Denver’s running game hasn’t been the same since a season-ending injury to J.K. Dobbins in Week 10. Rookie RJ Harvey is solid -- he’s rushed for 540 yards and seven touchdowns -- but Dobbins was a bigger, more physical presence in the backfield.

This all leads toward a question that is worth posing: What happens if Denver’s defense has an off day in the Divisional Round against the Buffalo Bills and Nix is leading a one-dimensional offense? The Broncos have shown they can handle adverse situations, as they’re 11-2 in one-score games this season. They also thrive in third-down situations (ranking 11th in the league in conversions), and head coach Sean Payton has a knack for dialing up the right plays at critical moments for receivers like Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin and tight end Evan Engram. However, we’ve also seen what an off day can look like for the Broncos, as they suffered a 34-20 loss to Jacksonville in Week 16. That defeat revealed that Denver can be vulnerable even with home-field advantage. The Broncos will be even more susceptible if Nix and his offensive mates can’t do more damage for an entire game.

Should the Patriots be worried about Drake Maye’s first postseason start?

There were good things about Maye’s performance in a 16-3 AFC Wild Card Round win over the Los Angeles Chargers and some things that didn’t match the MVP buzz he created during the regular season. First, the positives. Maye made several plays with his legs, as he led the team with 66 rushing yards (including a 37-yard scramble). His athleticism is one of the traits that makes him so dangerous, and his willingness to run can be debilitating for defenses. Maye also sealed the game with a 28-yard touchdown pass to tight end Hunter Henry. Now for the ugly. The Chargers sacked Maye five times, and he fumbled twice while losing one on a strip-sack. He also was underwhelming in the first half -- when he completed only six of 15 passes with an interception off a deflection -- before finishing with better numbers (17-of-29 for 268 yards with a touchdown and that pick). The Patriots were fortunate that Justin Herbert was struggling on the other side because this game was there for the taking if a different opposing quarterback were playing at a higher level. New England’s defense deserves credit for its effort. Head coach Mike Vrabel also was smart to lean into that unit taking over the game while not asking Maye to be brilliant. But this is also the postseason. The Chargers' defense gave Maye some problems that we haven’t seen him deal with in a long time. New England was good enough to get away with that against a Los Angeles team limited by a beat-up offensive line. That task will be much harder against a healthier Houston Texans team with a better defense.

How much offense do the Texans need to win a championship?

Houston’s defense did what most people expected in a 30-6 AFC wild-card win over Pittsburgh. The Texans completely stifled the Steelers offense, as Pittsburgh gained just 175 total yards and converted only two of 14 third-down situations. It was compelling evidence as to why Houston’s defense could carry this team to a championship. The Texans should be just as encouraged by what they saw from some less heralded players on offense. Running back Woody Marks gained 112 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Wide receiver Christian Kirk added eight receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown while picking up the slack for star wideout Nico Collins, who left the game with a concussion. Quarterback C.J. Stroud had his struggles -- he fumbled five times, lost two and threw an interception -- but he didn’t have to do too much for a team that scored two defensive touchdowns on the night. Now we must ask the question of whether Houston can get those same defensive performances and avoid those same offensive mistakes in New England next weekend. The Patriots are built to win games in an ugly fashion, just like the Texans. It’s one thing to beat up on the limited Pittsburgh Steelers. For the Texans to go where they want to go, they’ll have to be dominant on defense again and more efficient on the other side of the ball.

Can the Bills reach the AFC Championship Game without more production from James Cook?

The simple answer here is “no.” Buffalo was able to secure a 27-24 Wild Card Round win over Jacksonville for two key reasons. One is that quarterback Josh Allen plays for the Bills. The other is that Buffalo’s defense made some timely plays -- including the game-clinching interception by Cole Bishop -- to advance to a Divisional Round matchup with the top-seeded Broncos. Cook only ran for 46 yards on 15 carries, and it’s hard to see Buffalo continuing to thrive when the league’s leading rusher is neutralized. Now, to be fair, Cook was dealing with a Jaguars defense that allowed fewer rushing yards than anybody else in the regular season. This was going to be a tough task for Buffalo from the start. However, the Bills are past the days when they must rely on Allen to play Superman every time they take the field in the postseason. Cook is a special talent -- both as a ball-carrier and a receiver out of the backfield -- and his presence allows Allen to play at a more noticeably comfortable pace. The longer that game against Jacksonville went on, the more apparent it became that Allen had to lean on wide receiver Khalil Shakir (12 receptions for 82 yards) while mixing in a smattering of completions to other targets like wide receiver Brandin Cooks and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Allen also was the only other Bills player credited with a rushing attempt (he had 11 carries for 33 yards). Backup RB Ray Davis fumbled a first-quarter kickoff return and didn't receive any carries, while third-string back Ty Johnson didn’t even dress because of an ankle injury. The Bills ranked first in the league in rushing offense. As special as Allen is -- and as well as he plays in the postseason -- this team isn’t beating the Broncos without more offensive balance. Basically, don’t be surprised if Cook rebounds with a much better effort next weekend. 

Is Sam Darnold ready to slay another demon?

Anybody who followed Darnold’s resurrection in Minnesota last season knows how poorly it ended. The Vikings suffered blowout losses in their regular-season finale when the NFC North title was on the line (against Detroit) and in the Wild Card Round (against the Rams). Darnold was awful in both games, leaving the impression that he might have improved, but he could still melt down when it mattered most. As well as Darnold has played in his first season in Seattle, he’s going to be judged by the same standard here. He’s already won an important game -- the Seahawks claimed the NFC West crown and the top seed by beating San Francisco in the regular-season finale -- but this upcoming Divisional Round matchup against the 49ers (their third meeting this season) is obviously a bigger challenge. No team in the league was playing better than Seattle when the season ended. The Seahawks possess a dominant defense, and the advantage that team gains at Lumen Field is real. All that’s really needed for Seattle to reach the Super Bowl is Darnold to keep proving he’s learned from last season. His time with the Seahawks already has been interesting to watch because he has operated with two different styles. Darnold was slinging the ball all over the field in the first half of the season, as he averaged 251.3 passing yards through his first nine games while throwing 17 touchdown passes and six interceptions. He’s morphed into a game manager down the stretch, one who is more content playing efficiently than pushing the envelope and potentially putting that defense into difficult situations. The veteran has averaged 223.3 passing yards over the last eight games with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. A Week 11 loss to the Rams was the turning point for Darnold in that transformation -- he threw four interceptions in that 21-19 defeat -- and you can’t argue with the decision. The Seahawks haven’t lost since that day. If Darnold can avoid the big mistakes against San Francisco, Seattle's chances of pushing that win streak to eight look good.

Can this team really keep winning in such dramatic fashion?

Give the Bears this much: They always think they have a shot. Their 31-27 NFC Wild Card Round win over Green Bay was yet another testament to how comfortable this team is when the rest of the world is ready to bury them. The Bears trailed 21-3 at halftime. They faced a 15-point deficit when the third quarter ended. None of that eventually mattered, as Chicago won its seventh game after trailing with two minutes left and also became the fourth team in NFL history to overcome a deficit of at least 15 points in the fourth quarter. You would suspect that type of success would evaporate in a postseason matchup against an opponent that plays in the same division. Instead, the Bears keep proving they have something magical working in their favor when moments become most critical. Quarterback Caleb Williams delivered a number of clutch plays in the final period, including an off-balance, 27-yard completion to Rome Odunze on fourth-and-8 and the game-winning touchdown pass to DJ Moore. Chicago’s shaky defense also created stop after stop in the second half to allow the team to claw back into the game. It’s easy to keep saying the Bears can’t continue to play with fire this frequently. The problem is they aren’t getting burned. This also is turning out to be a season when it’s possible a team that relies so much on late-game heroics can avoid plummeting back to earth. Head coach Ben Johnson has gotten his group this far because it never gives up. That quality might be enough to take the Bears on a long playoff run.

Are special teams always going to be a problem?

As impressive as the Rams can be when they’re rolling, special teams have become an area that continues to dog this team at the worst possible times. There were other factors that played into Los Angeles nearly being upset at Carolina in Saturday's 34-31 Wild Card Round tilt -- including Matthew Stafford’s inability to handle relentless pressure and the defense giving up explosive pass plays -- but a blocked punt by Carolina’s Isaiah Simmons had to be the most discouraging. That play happened with just over four minutes left in the game and set up a go-ahead touchdown pass from Bryce Young to Jalen Coker. It also was a brutal reminder of how bad special teams have been for the Rams all season. Los Angeles suffered a 33-26 loss to Philadelphia in Week 3 after the Eagles blocked what would’ve been the game-winning field goal and nose tackle Jordan Davis returned it for a touchdown. The Rams also opened the door for Seattle to overcome a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit in a Week 16 loss, a rally that started with the Seahawks' Rashid Shaheed returning a punt for a touchdown. The Rams fired special teams coach Chase Blackburn after that Seahawks defeat, but this latest mishap indicates that problems still exist. L.A. was fortunate that Stafford and the offense could reset and mount the game-winning drive in the win over Carolina. That might not be the case against a better team like the Bears in a tougher environment in the Divisional Round.

How many stars do the 49ers have to lose before they actually suffer?

New policy in this column for the remainder of the season: No more writing off the 49ers, regardless of who's active. This team just left Philadelphia with a 23-19 NFC wild-card win despite facing even more challenges in a season chock-full of them. The 49ers didn’t have wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, so journeyman Demarcus Robinson picked up the slack with 111 receiving yards and a touchdown on six receptions. Their two leading tacklers -- linebackers Garret Wallow and Eric Kendricks -- had played so little this season with the team that they had 10 total tackles between them coming into this contest. And let’s not forget that tight end George Kittle sustained a torn Achilles in the first half on Sunday. The 49ers already are playing without edge rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner while other stars -- like Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams and quarterback Brock Purdy -- have missed time because of injuries. But here they are, heading to Seattle for a Divisional Round matchup with their NFC West rivals. The 49ers just faced the 'Hawks in the regular-season finale, suffering a defeat that cost them the division crown and the top seed in the NFC. San Francisco didn’t do much on offense (173 total yards) or defense (allowing 180 rushing yards) in that last meeting, but nobody should be thinking the 49ers can’t pull off another surprise. This team keeps proving why Kyle Shanahan should be Coach of the Year. It continues to make a case for defensive coordinator Robert Saleh landing a second opportunity as a head coach after failing with the New York Jets. Most importantly, the Niners are further evidence of how crazy this year has been. Should they be gone by now? Yes. Can they keep winning? Don’t count them out now.

How do the Jaguars keep a good thing going?

The pain of losing at home in the Wild Card Round should last a long time in Jacksonville. The Jaguars weren’t just a fun upstart team that shocked everyone with a dramatic turnaround after winning four games last season. Jacksonville was one of the most complete teams in the league, a squad fully capable of making a Super Bowl run, given how well it had been playing. Its challenge today is the same one every young team faces after vaulting into contention, which is to make the world understand this wasn’t a fluke. The Jaguars should be excited about the growth of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who was playing at an MVP level in the second half of the season until he threw two key interceptions against Buffalo, including one that safety Cole Bishop caught off a deflection to seal the loss. Head coach Liam Coen took Lawrence’s game to another level. Another offseason together should offer even more optimism about Lawrence becoming an elite signal-caller. The Jaguars have created a solid receiving corps for him with Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington, and it will be even better if Brian Thomas Jr. can return to his rookie-season form (when he produced 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns).

Jacksonville is strong in other areas -- the defense matured into one of league’s best units under coordinator Anthony Campanile, while kicker Cam Little arguably has the strongest leg in the business -- but now we mention the quiet part out loud: Where does Travis Hunter fit into all this? Jacksonville executed a blockbuster draft-day trade to select him second overall, but he only appeared in seven games before undergoing season-ending surgery on a torn LCL in his right knee. The Jaguars were trying to determine how best to use Hunter as a wide receiver and cornerback. That need to play him on both sides of the ball doesn’t seem so critical anymore. Jacksonville is in a position where it doesn’t need him to be a revolutionary talent. If he can be another difference-maker, wherever he plays -- and the Jaguars can determine how best to handle impending free agents like running back Travis Etienne and All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd -- this team should be contending once again next year.

How do the Eagles fix that offense?

There should be no surprise as to why Philadelphia’s season ended with that loss to San Francisco in the Wild Card Round. Offense was the Eagles’ major issue all year. It was the problem once again on Sunday. Quarterback Jalen Hurts only passed for 168 yards while attempting 35 passes. Wide receiver A.J. Brown dropped multiple balls that could’ve turned into huge plays -- including one on Philadelphia’s final drive -- and engaged in a heated argument with head coach Nick Sirianni in the second quarter. Running back Saquon Barkley was a bright spot with 106 rushing yards, but this was more of the same in Philadelphia. The Eagles were facing a 49ers defense that has been plagued by injuries. This should’ve been one of the best offensive opportunities for Philadelphia all year. It wound up being a reminder that a unit flush with star power finished the regular season ranked 19th in scoring and 24th in total yards. So, how do the Eagles improve? The obvious answer is that first-year coordinator Kevin Patullo likely won’t be around for a second year on the job. This is the second time Sirianni has promoted an in-house assistant to offensive coordinator after a Super Bowl appearance, and he'll be 0-for-2 in making that decision work if Philly moves on. The Eagles must find a way to make the passing game more dynamic and creative. They went 9-1 in games when Hurts didn’t surpass 200 yards passing. That shouldn’t be a badge of honor. Finally, a healthier offensive line will make a world of difference. Injuries factored heavily into that unit not being as strong as it’s been in the past, and that issue impacted everything Philadelphia wanted to accomplish on that side of the ball. The good news is the Eagles have talent and have been down this road before. The bad news is they wasted a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champs by failing to resolve this problem all season.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: The Eagles have parted ways with OC Kevin Patullo, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo reported Tuesday.

Can Bryce Young permanently become the quarterback who showed up in the second half of Saturday's loss?

If there’s one positive Carolina can take from watching its season end with that wild-card loss to the Rams, it’s that nobody can question its right to be a playoff team today. That’s largely because Young used his first postseason appearance as an opportunity to show the world he can perform on this stage. He struggled early before rebounding to throw for 264 yards while adding a rushing touchdown and the go-ahead scoring pass to Jalen Coker with just under three minutes left in the game. The fact that Young was able to give his team a chance at victory tells you he can be the franchise quarterback Carolina has been waiting to see since drafting him first overall in 2023. The problem is that we’ve been here before. There was a ton of optimism about Young during the second half of last season, when he rebounded from being benched to play the best football of his young career. Unfortunately, that momentum didn’t result in the type of jump in development that seemed to be coming this season. Young can handle himself in tight situations (he has 12 game-winning drives since entering the league), and the weapons around him have improved (rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan was a stud in Year 1). What’s harder to understand is why he can’t be that same quarterback when the game isn’t hanging in the balance. His career has been defined by inconsistency, and while this was his best season -- he produced career highs in yards, touchdowns and completion percentage -- the Carolina offense ranked 27th in the league in both points and total yards. There’s a lot to like about the Panthers' performance against the Rams and their ability to win the NFC South, even if they finished the regular season at 8-9. Now it’s time to see if their quarterback can take them to greater heights next season by taking a huge leap in development.

What is going to happen with Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin?

The Steelers signed Aaron Rodgers with the hope that he could elevate this franchise in ways that haven’t occurred in years. So much for that idea. Pittsburgh’s season ended with a 30-6 first-round loss to the Houston Texans. It's possible we may have just watched the final NFL game of Rodgers' Hall of Fame career. He signed a one-year deal after spending several months pondering retirement. Now that he’s 42 years old, it’s hard to think he’ll return for a 22nd season. That begs the question of what the Steelers are going to do at quarterback if he is indeed finished and whether Tomlin is going to be around much longer, either. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season. Tomlin also has one year left on his current contract, and the team must decide whether to pick up the final-year option on that deal in March. It’s not likely that the Steelers would fire Tomlin in the same manner that the Baltimore Ravens recently dumped long-time coach John Harbaugh -- there have only been three head coaches in Pittsburgh since 1969 -- but Tomlin has held the job for 19 seasons. He might be ready for a break. There might be an opportunity in TV that appeals to him. The bottom line is this team has been good enough to make the playoffs in recent years and bad enough to bow out in the first round. It can’t stay that way forever. And that means there will be plenty of interest in what happens next with the head coach and at the quarterback position.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Mike Tomlin is stepping down as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport, Tom Pelissero and Mike Garafolo reported on Tuesday.

What does the future hold for Matt LaFleur?

That’s been a question hovering around Green Bay this entire season. It’s also not going away after the Packers blew an 18-point lead against their division rivals and failed to advance past the Wild Card Round for the second consecutive year. It’s no secret that there have been whispers about whether Packers president Ed Policy is committed to LaFleur, as both the head coach and general manager Brian Gutekunst are entering the last year of their contracts. LaFleur is obviously the more high-profile story here because he’s been one of the best coaches in the league for most of his seven-year tenure in Green Bay. The Packers won the NFC North in each of his first three seasons and reached the NFC Championship Game in the first two. The problem is Green Bay has floundered often since then. The Packers have hit the 10-win mark only once in the last four years, and this season featured a more discouraging dynamic in LaFleur’s run: The offense declined noticeably. The coach made his bones off building Aaron Rodgers back into an MVP quarterback at the start of LaFleur’s tenure. LaFleur also developed Jordan Love into a franchise signal-caller. But Policy just finished his first year on the job, and there’s no telling how Green Bay’s recent failings will impact his decision-making. It doesn’t help that one franchise already has fired a top head coach (John Harbaugh is out in Baltimore) and there are other candidates with head-coaching experience available (most notably, Kevin Stefanski, Mike McDaniel, Brian Flores and Robert Saleh). There was a time not that long ago when it seemed unthinkable that LaFleur could be in trouble despite reaching the playoffs in a campaign when he lost two of his best players to season-ending knee injuries (tight end Tucker Kraft and edge rusher Micah Parsons). That also was before the Packers watched three other teams win the NFC North with dynamic coaches of their own over the past four seasons (Chicago’s Ben Johnson, Detroit’s Dan Campbell and Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell). In other words, this is a situation that bears watching. 

How can the postseason become more enjoyable for Justin Herbert?

This clearly isn’t a complicated issue to fix in the short term. The Chargers spent most of the season trying to keep Herbert upright despite a rash of injuries along their offensive line. The major losses involved season-ending injuries to offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, but the Chargers used multiple line combinations throughout the year because of health issues. Those problems were at the heart of what happened in their wild-card loss to the Patriots, as New England defenders pounded Herbert all game. New England wound up with six sacks and 11 quarterback hits, and we’re not even counting how many licks they put on Herbert when he was running the ball (he led Los Angeles with 57 yards on 10 carries). It was always going to be a challenge for the Chargers to advance with so much turmoil in the trenches. The Patriots simply revealed how brutal it could be for Herbert without ample protection. He was sacked 54 times in the regular season, which was one less than the league-high mark shared by Tennessee’s Cam Ward and Las Vegas’s Geno Smith. Give him credit for gutting it out with a fractured left hand in the final month of the season, but these playoff losses must be taking a toll on him. He’s now 0-3 in the postseason with some brutal defeats. He threw four interceptions in a 32-12 wild-card loss to Houston last year and dealt with his team blowing a 27-point lead in a 31-30 wild-card defeat to Jacksonville at the end of the 2022 campaign. The Chargers will be better when Slater and Alt are back. They also have to pray they don’t go through another year with these kinds of setbacks.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: The Chargers fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport, Tom Pelissero and Mike Garafolo reported on Tuesday. They also fired offensive line coach Mike Devlin.