How long would Marshawn Lynch's holdout need to last in order for you to drop him out of the first round?
The trend of holdout running backs either suffering an injury or seeing a statistical decline is downright scary, but I won't drop Lynch out of the first round just yet. If he is still a holdout once the Seahawks enter the second or third week of the preseason, however, I'll be more inclined to remove him as a Round 1 option. It would be hard for me to knock him out of the second round, but targeting Lynch would also mean that landing the eventual winner of the Robert Turbin vs. Christine Michael battle would be imperative.
Let the slide begin
I'm already terrified of drafting Lynch in the first round even though his holdout has been mere days, and if he's not back by the end of this week, I'm sliding him down my board. Lynch has had a tremendous workload over the last few years, and these types of holdouts make players -- especially running backs -- more susceptible to injury and statistical decline. The first round is all about mitigating risk with your pick. Lynch offers too much risk for me to consider drafting him if he doesn't come back this week.
Game Three for Round One
Players in general might not like training camp and preseason games, but they're in place for a reason. It's important to get in some work against live competition -- even if it's your own teammates. That said, if we start getting into games with no sign of Beast Mode, I'm going to start sliding him down the board. If we get to the third preseason game and Lynch hasn't reported, I'll certainly slide him out of the first round. Considering the history of running backs who have held out, I'd be more likely to let Lynch be someone else's problem.
To be honest, Lynch already was on my "do not draft" list headed into the coming season. Lynch had 400 touches last year in the Seahawks' run to the title and that's typically the magic number that dooms fantasy production the following year. Look no further than Ray Rice and his lack of production last season. So I was set to avoid Lynch anyway. I'm a huge fan of Christine Michael and I liked Bobby Turbin from when I used Utah State in EA Sports NCAA, so I'm going to watch that camp battle with great interest and will target one of those guys late in drafts.