Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. In today's installment, he explores each new head coach's outlook in Year 1.
It is quite challenging to transform a downtrodden NFL franchise into a winner. Despite the best efforts of a new head coach to change the culture, personnel and tactics of a team, victories are hard to come by in an ultra-competitive league with razor-thin margins.
As we fully dive into the preseason, it's a great time to predict which new coaches have the best chance to lead a dramatic turnaround in the 2025 campaign. A few of the men listed below have the raw talent on hand to potentially make a playoff run in Year 1, but most of these coaches should be applauded if they're able to flirt with .500 and/or make a late-season surge to create momentum heading into the 2026 offseason.
With all of that in mind, here is my ranking of the new head coaches, 1-7, in terms of who will win the most games this season.
I just spent some time at Cowboys training camp in Oxnard, California, and there is a vibe around this team that is a direct reflection of its energetic new leader, who has emphasized connectivity between players and coaches since Day 1. Though the newfound chemistry must be complemented with a disciplined approach that features more accountability and attention to detail, Dallas' talented roster could finally maximize its immense potential under the direction of a first-time head coach utilizing a blueprint that helped his dad (Marty Schottenheimer) win 200 regular-season games.
As an offensive-minded coach with a seasoned franchise quarterback (Dak Prescott), a beefy O-line and a collection of playmakers in the passing game (CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson), Schottenheimer has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with league heavyweights. If the Cowboys can mend their relationship with superstar edge rusher Micah Parsons, Dallas' defense could produce enough splash plays (turnovers, sacks, tackles for loss) to tilt games in the Cowboys' favor, ultimately spawning a return to the postseason for "America's Team."
The offensive wizard steps into a perfect situation with a gifted quarterback (2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams) who needed a new playbook and an upgraded supporting cast of playmakers (Chicago drafted Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III in the first two rounds) and protectors (the Bears acquired veterans Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson and Drew Dalman before spending a second-round pick on Ozzy Trapilo) to maximize his immense potential. All of these new additions should jump-start an offense that has lagged behind the explosive attacks of Chicago's division rivals in Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota. The biggest key? Williams embracing Johnson's demanding, hard coaching style.
Though the Dennis Allen-led defense will need to generate enough stops to give a new-and-improved offense a chance to wear down opponents, the Bears' offensive potency could make them a 10-win squad in 2025.
When Robert Kraft decided to bring Vrabel back to Foxborough to revive the Patriots, he was counting on the three-time Super Bowl champion to utilize some of the toughness and tactics that had helped the franchise dominate the league for the first two decades of this millennium. While a worst-to-first jump is unlikely in a division that runs through Buffalo -- SEE: five straight AFC East titles -- New England is bound to improve with an established WR1 (Stefon Diggs) helping Drake Maye take another step in his development as a franchise quarterback. The Patriots also assisted their second-year passer in the first three rounds of the draft, taking two offensive linemen (Will Campbell, Jared Wilson) and a pair of playmakers (TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams).
With notable free-agent additions to all three levels of the defense (DL Milton Williams, OLB Harold Landry III, LB Robert Spillane, CB Carlton Davis III), Vrabel has an experienced unit that's poised to create problems for opponents. The Pats will be a tough out for teams ill-prepared to deal with 60 minutes of "Bully Ball" from a former AFC powerhouse.
After transforming Baker Mayfield into a touchdown machine in 2024, Coen could help another former No. 1 overall pick find his groove. While Trevor Lawrence's performance also hinges on his connection with a promising group of young pass catchers (Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Dyami Brown, Parker Washington and Brenton Strange), his crafty new play-caller can create plenty of opportunities for the quarterback to post gaudy numbers utilizing various high-percentage concepts that feed speedy playmakers in space.
Defensively, Jacksonville's move to a vision-based scheme under new coordinator Anthony Campanile should enable Hunter to thrive as a two-way standout. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is expected to contribute defensively as a "get off the field" specialist who plays in critical moments (third down, red zone, two-minute drill, end of game). With Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker in place to wreak havoc off the edges, the turnovers could come in bunches for a team obsessed with picking off passes on tips and overthrows. Given the outsized impact of explosive plays and turnovers on the outcome of games, Coen could have the Jaguars climbing the ranks as a playoff contender by season's end.
Armed with an old-school blueprint that has helped him build championship teams on the professional and collegiate levels, Carroll will follow the script with the Silver and Black, a four-win team last season. Despite playing in a division with a trio of 2024 playoff participants, the Raiders should be much more competitive with Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback Geno Smith leaning on an unstoppable tight end (second-year pro Brock Bowers) and a supremely talented RB1 with takeover ability (No. 6 overall pick Ashton Jeanty). Las Vegas has some holes on the other side of the ball, but Maxx Crosby is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate and the unit added a number of experienced veterans in the offseason.
As a team built around a run-centric approach with the intent of forcing opponents to play in tightly contested games, the Raiders’ ability to win one-score games could determine whether they can hover around .500 in Carroll’s debut season.
Glenn might follow the blueprint created by his former head coach, Bill Parcells, to reverse the fortunes of a franchise that has not made the playoffs since the 2010 season. The Hall of Fame head coach employed a tough-love approach -- along with a methodical, complementary football strategy -- that helped the Jets reach the 1998 AFC Championship Game. With a talented defense in place for Glenn's first season at the helm, he and the front office have focused their efforts on building an offense that can win with force or finesse, while playing a low-risk brand of football that doesn't defeat itself.
Justin Fields’ arrival gives the Jets a dual-threat quarterback with the big arm and rushing ability to create explosive plays. The passing attack could take a step forward with better chemistry on the perimeter, as Fields rekindles his connection with former Ohio State teammate and Jets WR1 Garrett Wilson. In the ground game, as Breece Hall and Braelon Allen settle into their roles as designated playmakers, the Jets can create chaos with various downhill runs and option concepts designed to bully and befuddle opposing defenses at every turn. In a league that rewards smashmouth teams these days, New York could surprise some folks with its old-school formula.
The well-respected quarterback guru has his work cut out for him in Year 1 with an unproven trio of passers (rookie Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener) vying for the QB1 spot. Moore has built quarterback-friendly systems for playmakers with varied skill sets in three stops as an offensive coordinator (Cowboys, Chargers and Eagles), but in his first season as a head coach, the former NFL backup QB must quickly adjust to the starting signal-caller's abilities in order to produce an offense that fully maximizes the talent on the perimeter.
While New Orleans' veteran leadership on both sides of the ball could help keep the team afloat until a QB1 emerges, relying on a collection of graybeards (Alvin Kamara, Brandin Cooks, Cam Jordan, Demario Davis and Justin Reid) to spark a rise around an inexperienced and/or ineffective quarterback is asking a lot in a QB-driven league.