The rise and fall of franchises in the NFL is constant and inevitable, and it's thanks in no small part to the balancing effects of the salary cap and free agency. For every sudden ascension like the one we saw from the AFC champion New England Patriots, there is a sudden decline like the one experienced by the Kansas City Chiefs. When the new league year rolls around in March, every team strives to get better, but a few are bound to lose a step.
In preparation, we’ve got a look at the seven franchises with the toughest tasks ahead of them in the 2025 free agency period -- a result of concerning cap status, impending free agents, team needs or all of the above. Before we get there, though, here is a trio of teams that just missed the top seven and earned the honorable mention label.
NOTE: All salary cap figures are from Over The Cap and are current as of 12 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Feb. 6.
Honorable mention
Minnesota currently sits a concerning $40.1 million over the cap, second-worst in the league behind the Chiefs. However, the Vikings project to be relatively unscathed by departing free agents, with 21 in total (tied for fifth-fewest) carrying a combined average annual salary of just $39.7 million (second-lowest). After 37-year-old safety and potential retiree Harrison Smith, their next most notable free agents are LB Eric Wilson and part-time starting tackle Justin Skule. Considering what he’s done this year, the Vikings might regret letting Sam Darnold walk, but it puts them in a better place financially with QB J.J. McCarthy’s measly $6 million cap hit in 2026. They likely won’t be splashy this March, but Minnesota should survive despite the cap troubles.
No offense intended, but it takes a lot for a 3-14 team with a dozen major holes and no franchise quarterback to be hit hard in free agency. There simply isn’t much lower the Jets can drop. They crack the honorable mentions thanks to a whopping 33 impending free agents, tied for second-most in the league. But not a single one of those free agents played more than 65 percent of snaps in 2025 -- the most prominent names are RB Breece Hall, LB Quincy Williams and safety Andre Cisco. Additionally, the Jets have $83.2 million in cap space heading into 2026, fourth-most in the league, so their second-year duo of GM Darren Mougey and HC Aaron Glenn should be able to retain the guys they want and sign a new crop of free agents to combine with their pair of first-round draft picks.
The Commanders were an honorable mention selection in last year’s version of this article as well, with what felt like the entire veteran core of their defense at risk of departure. Ultimately, that defense dropped from the middle of the league in 2024 to 27th in scoring and dead last in yards allowed in 2025. The pressure’s on again this March, as Washington has 33 impending free agents (tied with the Jets for second-most) carrying a combined average salary of $104.4 million (second-most in the league). That list includes defensive captain Bobby Wagner, starting guard Chris Paul and 2025 leading receiver Deebo Samuel. The only reason Washington squeaks into the honorable mention section, instead of the top seven, is that it has $76 million in cap space (fifth-most in the league).
Top 7
Salary cap space: -$11.4 million
The Jaguars had an exciting season, winning the AFC South under new head coach Liam Coen and with a late-year surge from Trevor Lawrence. And there’s good news for the front office heading into 2026: Jacksonville only has 18 impending free agents, tied for the second-fewest. The trouble, however, comes with its wallet -- $11.4 million over the cap -- and with the names on their free agent list.
First-round running back Travis Etienne has reached the end of his rookie contract after logging his third season with 1,400-plus scrimmage yards and his second with 12-plus touchdowns. He could demand top-five RB money in free agency, and if Jacksonville doesn’t pay up, it'll be down a key contributor on offense. And while its defense is safe up front with Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Arik Armstead all signed through at least 2026, things get messy at the next two levels. Linebacker Devin Lloyd, safety Andrew Wingard and corners Greg Newsome II and Montaric Brown (among others) will all hit free agency in March.
If 35-year-old GM James Gladstone can manage to keep his core, this roster will compete for the division title again in 2026 -- but there’s a chance they take two steps back after 2025's big step forward.
Salary cap space: $35.5 million
The Colts are one of two teams in the top seven under the cap -- $35.5 million under, a little better than the league median. They’re the only team gearing up to sign a franchise quarterback to a top-tier contract. The one-year rental on Daniel Jones went far better than expected, at least until he tore his Achilles in December, and the bill will be due before he’s fully recovered. Assuming Chris Ballard and Co. commit to Jones for the future, his yearly salary will jump from $14 million to somewhere north of $50 million, which will make it much harder to retain the roster around him -- specifically, breakout wide receiver Alec Pierce, right tackle Braden Smith, safety Nick Cross and linebacker Germaine Pratt, all of whom played at least 70 percent of snaps in 2025 and will be unrestricted free agents in March.
This team was 8-2 heading into its Week 11 bye before a cataclysmic collapse and Jones’ injury resulted in a seven-game losing streak to close the season. Retaining Jones, getting him healthy and assembling a playoff-worthy roster around him will not be easy, and if Indy can’t do all of the above, it'll be a real challenge for Indy to break end its five-year playoff drought.
Salary cap space: -$29.1 million
The Cowboys have the third-worst cap situation heading into 2026, behind only the Chiefs and Vikings. They were No. 3 on this list last year, staring down a Micah Parsons extension and the looming lack of a running back and a second wide receiver. Funny enough, they traded Parsons and acquired both RB Javonte Williams and WR George Pickens ... but after breakout seasons, the latter two will demand significant pay raises as unrestricted free agents in March.
Additionally, All-Pro kicker Brandon Aubrey is set to be a restricted free agent, which will likely mean about an extra $6 million investment to keep him in Dallas. Then there's the defense, which ranked third-worst in yards allowed and dead last in scoring in 2025 and is littered with 2026 free agents, particularly safety Donovan Wilson, linebacker Kenneth Murray and edge rushers Sam Williams, Jadeveon Clowney and Dante Fowler.
Dallas is rarely the flashiest team in free agency, but starting in the red with a gutted defense isn’t going to help. If Jerry Jones and Co. intend to keep Pickens and Williams at the core of the offense, it could take upwards of $40 million a year for that duo alone. It’s going to be very tough for the Cowboys to get better in what is shaping up to be a tough NFC East next season.
Salary cap space: -$1.4 million
The Packers logged another season where they were on the cusp but ultimately came up short in a Wild Card Round loss to the divisional-rival Bears. And unfortunately, they might be approaching a bit of a wall this offseason, with a sizable chunk of their young core heading for free agency.
Get this: There are currently 10 impending unrestricted free agents across the entire NFL who are entering their age-26 season (or younger) and who played at least 70 percent of snaps in 2025. Four of those 10 are Green Bay's 2022 draft picks -- left tackle Rasheed Walker, right guard Sean Rhyan, wide receiver Romeo Doubs and linebacker Quay Walker. The team has recently dropped significant money on QB Jordan Love, guard Aaron Banks and, of course, trade acquisition Micah Parsons. Backup quarterback Malik Willis will also be a free agent. He might garner a starting opportunity or, in the very least, top-tier QB2 money after decent outings in relief the past couple years.
It continues to feel like the Packers are one or two pieces from finally making it back to the Super Bowl, but GM Brian Gutekunst has work to do to avoid Green Bay springing more holes than than they fill this offseason.
Salary cap space: $3.2 million
Similar to the Jets' situation, it should be tough for a team that won five games to rank this high on this list. However, sitting just above the cap and with the most current salary and aggregate snap share set to leave in free agency, it can in fact get worse for Cleveland. Its impending free agent list includes the entire starting offensive line -- LT Cam Robinson, LG Joel Bitonio, C Ethan Pocic, RG Wyatt Teller and RT Jack Conklin are all entering void years on their contracts this offseason. Linebacker Devin Bush and tight end David Njoku are also notable names set to hit the market.
Then there’s the quarterback question. Will GM Andrew Berry and new head coach Todd Monken roll with Pro Bowler Shedeur Sanders? Return to Dillon Gabriel? Sign a bridge starter like Russell Wilson or Marcus Mariota? Pull off a miracle draft trade to get top prospect Fernando Mendoza? Try another Day 2 or 3 option like Ty Simpson, Miami's Carson Beck or LSU's Garrett Nussmeier? Any way you slice it, the Browns don’t have many assets to surround said quarterback and might lose several more this March.
Salary cap space: -$7.4 million
While they only have 26 impending free agents and are only $7.4 million over the cap, the real trouble for the Bills comes with the importance of the players they could lose. In terms of both current money and 2025 snap share, their batch of free agents is among the most notable in the league, including, but not limited to, center Connor McGovern, left guard David Edwards, corner Tre’Davious White, safety Jordan Poyer, edge rushers Joey Bosa and A.J. Epenesa, defensive tackles DaQuan Jones and Larry Ogunjobi, linebackers Matt Milano and Shaq Thompson, and even kicker Matt Prater and punter Mitch Wishnowsky. Gabe Davis and Brandin Cooks also make that list, and while they’re not quite as hard to lose, there’s going to be a lot of pressure on GM Brandon Beane to acquire a star-caliber outside wide receiver for Josh Allen, which would make it even harder to prevent a veteran exodus elsewhere.
Similar to Green Bay, Buffalo has been on the cusp of a Super Bowl appearance for years now -- six straight, in fact -- and it’s not easy to stay that good for that long. The Bills also fired head coach Sean McDermott after years of falling just short, which means 2026 could see some extra roster turnover if the team recalibrates to Joe Brady’s vision for the future.
Salary cap space: -$54.7 million
After a dynastic decade of dominance from the Chiefs, this is easily the bleakest a Kansas City offseason has looked since the ultimately successful 2013 rebuild. They’re coming off a six-win season (fewest wins since 2012), Patrick Mahomes is recovering from a torn ACL and they currently sit $54.7 million over the cap. That doesn't just rank worst in the NFL, it’s roughly $14 million more than the the next team (Vikings).
Unfortunately, the troubles don’t stop there. Kansas City also has 30 impending free agents (tied for fifth-most), with a notable group of names at the top: 36-year-old Travis Kelce, starting defensive backs Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook, pass rusher Charles Omenihu, running backs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt and a good chunk of their WR corps. Additionally, its only real cap-savings opportunity would be cutting starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor -- not necessarily an ideal move for a team looking to better protect their all-universe QB. GM Brett Veach has a lot of work to do this offseason, with a desolate pocketbook and a high bar for success given recent history.