Skip to main content

Thursday, May 15, 2025 12:02 AM

NFL schedule: Each AFC team's win total projection for 2025 season

Cynthia Frelund

NFL Network Analytics Expert

NFL schedule: Each AFC team's win total projection for 2025 season

NFL schedule: Each NFC team's win total projection for 2025 season

The 2025 NFL schedule is out! At last, we can circle the hottest days on the calendar -- and project win totals for the 2025 NFL season.

While we've long known the identity of each team's opponents (and, in most cases, the location of each game), the actual sequencing of the schedules has an impact on projected win totals. For example, having to make multiple cross-country trips (or adding an international one ... or two) could influence a team's win probability, as could facing elite QBs in back-to-back weeks.

Here's how to read these win projections: Using projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 1 million simulations for all 272 regular-season games. (A quick note: Barring injuries, which are typically the biggest source of uncertainty, I have made roster projections using the best information available. Definitely check back for the updated versions of these win-total projections just before the season starts.) These simulations yielded a projected win total for each team, which, thanks to the multitude of factors involved, is not always a round number. The top seven teams in each conference are my projected playoff participants.

Remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played; personnel is the most important, but other key factors include play-caller tendencies and in-game situations. I re-run these simulations should any player change teams, suffer an injury or otherwise be made unavailable, thus changing the complexion of his team. The more important the player involved, the more the win totals shift -- including opponents' probabilities. Should a high-impact player (or two) change status, we can track how those moves shift everything. Again, this all suggests that you check back in September -- and that it's kind of fun to track everything from May until Super Bowl LX!

NFL schedule: Each AFC team's win total projection for 2025 season

2025 NFL schedule, NFC East: Takeaways, full list of games for Commanders, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants

2025 NFL schedule: Lions, Browns among seven teams with toughest 17-game slates

2025 NFL schedule: 49ers, Bills among seven teams with most favorable 17-game slates

NFL schedule release: Top 10 games of 2025

NFL schedule: Bears-Commanders, Eagles-Chiefs among top 10 revenge games in 2025

2025 NFL schedule release: Top 10 prime-time games

The lines below provided by Caesars Sportsbook & Casino are current as of 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May 14 unless otherwise noted below.

Wins
11.6
Baltimore Ravens
AFC NORTH CHAMPIONS


The Ravens begin by playing their three most difficult projected matchups of the season within the first four weeks: Week 1 at the Bills on Sunday Night Football, Week 3 vs. the Lions on Monday Night Football and Week 4 at the Chiefs. One late-season game to circle is the Week 17 showdown with the Packers at Lambeau Field. This could be pivotal for both teams, in terms of playoff seeding -- Baltimore is likely to be contending for the AFC's top seed and lone playoff bye. My model forecasts Lamar Jackson and Co. to pace the conference by 0.2 wins.

Wins
11.4
Buffalo Bills
AFC EAST CHAMPIONS


The Bills' three toughest forecasted matchups are spaced really nicely apart, and all are set to take place at home: Week 1 vs. the Ravens, Week 9 vs. the Chiefs and Week 17 vs. the Eagles. I’m going to save my Super Bowl picks until just ahead of the season, but right now, no AFC team has a higher ceiling than Buffalo, even if it currently (barely) ranks second here. 

Wins
11.2
Kansas City Chiefs
AFC WEST CHAMPIONS


We should learn a lot about the Chiefs' new-look offensive line -- with new tackles Jaylon Moore (a free agent) and Josh Simmons (a first-round pick) now in the mix, and a competition forthcoming to replace traded-away guard Joe Thuney -- early on, with the Eagles' imposing defense coming to town in Week 2. And we should understand much more about the overall ceiling of this team by Week 4, when K.C. hosts the Ravens. Don't overlook this three-game stretch, which I think features a good deal of volatility: Week 8 vs. the Commanders on Monday Night Football, followed by a trip to Buffalo in Week 9 and another trip to Denver in Week 11 (after a Week 10 bye). 

Wins
9.5
Denver Broncos
WILD CARD


As a rookie last season, quarterback Bo Nix won five of his final seven regular-season games to help power the Broncos' return to the playoffs. He'll get to pick up his development in Year 2 with some of the best possible draws to start the season: at home vs. the rebuilding Titans, then a trip to Indianapolis to face the Colts in Week 2. Things get a bit tougher after that, with a visit to the Chargers in Week 3, a Monday Night Football home date with the Bengals in Week 4 and a road game in Philly in Week 5. Denver doesn't have to see Kansas City until Week 11 -- but then takes on the long-reigning division champs again six weeks later on Christmas.

Wins
9.3
Los Angeles Chargers
WILD CARD


Apart from starting the season against the defending conference champion Chiefs in Brazil, the Chargers have the most favorable AFC West schedule. Their most difficult stretch, in terms of back-to-back win projections, doesn't come until Weeks 14 (vs. the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Monday Night Football) and 15 (at Kansas City). If they can beat the teams they need to by then, they should be in good shape, especially if Justin Herbert -- who threw a career-low three picks in 2024 -- can continue to take care of the ball.

Wins
9.1
Cincinnati Bengals
WILD CARD


Since the Joe Burrow era began in 2020, the Bengals have a 1-9 record in games held in Weeks 1 and 2. Well, this season, they are going to reverse that trend, kicking off the year by going 2-0 against the Browns and Jaguars, as they do in over 58 percent of simulations. The big question for Cincinnati is a defense that allowed more than 25 points per game in 2024, especially with sack-leader Trey Hendrickson's contract situation still unsettled. The D must get into shape by Week 4, when the Bengals begin this stretch against capable offenses: at the Broncos on Monday Night Football, vs. the Lions in Week 5 and at the Packers in Week 6.

Wins
9.0
Houston Texans
AFC SOUTH CHAMPIONS


We will get to know a ton about where C.J. Stroud and the Texans' reworked offense stand right off the bat, when they head to Los Angeles to face the Rams and their nasty defensive front in one of the most interesting games of Week 1. We'll get to know even more by Week 8, when Stroud and Co. will have matched up with three teams I forecast to win their respective divisions: the Bucs (in Houston on Monday Night Football in Week 2), the Ravens (in Baltimore in Week 5) and the 49ers (in Houston in Week 8).

Wins
8.3
Miami Dolphins


The Fins' season is likely to be determined by two interrelated factors: the health of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has logged just one full season in his career and missed six games in 2024, and the effectiveness of Miami's rebuilt offensive line, with second-year pro Patrick Paul in position to take over for retired left tackle Terron Armstead and second-round pick Jonah Savaiinaea arriving to reinforce the interior at guard. These things will be especially important by Week 9, when the Dolphins begin a string of high-profile matchups against powerful defenses: vs. the Ravens on Thursday Night Football, vs. the Bills in Week 10 and vs. the Commanders (in Madrid!) in Week 11. 

Wins
8.3
Pittsburgh Steelers


We still don't know exactly who will be under center for the Steelers, but one thing is for certain: They will have their fifth different starting QB in as many seasons when they head to New York to face the Jets in Week 1. Of course, the spice factor will be off the charts if Aaron Rodgers, whose two-year run with Gang Green ended in disappointment, is leading Pittsburgh against Justin Fields, the last guy to start a season at QB for the Steelers, but perhaps even more important will be whether the new QB and new WR1 DK Metcalf have had time to get on the same page. As of right now, the post-Thanksgiving window forecasts to be the most dicey for the Steelers: They host the Bills in Week 13, then visit the Ravens in Week 14, host the Dolphins on a Monday in Week 15, then head to Detroit in Week 16.

Wins
8.0
New England Patriots


Based on their upside, the Pats are my pick to be one of the surprise teams of 2025, with their current projection of 8.0 wins easily capable of growing by the time we reach September, depending on how some other situations (such as the Steelers' and Browns' QB pictures) shake out around the league in the preseason. The fact that two of their more challenging non-divisional dates (at Cincinnati in Week 12 and at Baltimore in Week 16) come later in the season is a positive for New England, giving the new Mike Vrabel-led coaching staff time to build chemistry with second-year pro Drake Maye.

Wins
7.7
Jacksonville Jaguars


My eyes are drawn to intriguing matchups for high-wattage rookie Travis Hunter. The two-way player will begin his NFL career at home against the Panthers, then get to see Patrick Mahomes spin it on Monday Night Football in Week 5. I am most interested in Week 16's trip to Denver, when Hunter will share the field with Patrick Surtain II, presumably working against Surtain directly as a receiver and showing how he stacks up against the reigning Defensive Player of the Year as a cornerback. Hopefully, by that later date in the season, Hunter, Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. will all have had plenty of time to gel in new coach Liam Coen's offense.

Wins
7.6
Indianapolis Colts


Given the questions the Colts are facing at quarterback, where veteran addition Daniel Jones will be vying to unseat former first-round pick Anthony Richardson, they could be in for a rocky start, having to host the Broncos' defense in Week 2, then traveling to face the Rams' defense in Week 4. Indianapolis' hardest back-to-backs come later in the year: Weeks 12 (at Kansas City) and 13 (vs. Houston), then Weeks 15 (at Seattle) and 16 (vs. San Francisco on Monday Night Football).

Wins
7.4
Las Vegas Raiders


Pete Carroll and Geno Smith will have a chance to significantly outpace this projected total if they can win one or (ideally) both of their games in Week 3 (at the Commanders) and Week 4 (vs. the Bears). Las Vegas' toughest three-game stretch right now forecasts to be Weeks 14-16, when they host the Broncos, then travel to face the Eagles and Texans.

Wins
6.2
New York Jets


The Jets and new QB Justin Fields will be tested right away when they host Fields' most recent team, the Steelers, in Week 1 at MetLife, then welcome the Bills in Week 2 and head to Tampa in Week 3. New York's second go-around against the Bills in Buffalo in Week 18 figures to be more favorable, given the amount of time the Jets will have had by then to settle in under new head coach Aaron Glenn.

Wins
5.8
Tennessee Titans


Opening in Denver against the Broncos' defense is a tricky way for No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward to begin his career. A home game against the Rams defense in Week 2 is a really, really tricky way to follow that up! The good news is, tests at the Niners (in Week 15) and vs. the Chiefs (in Week 16) come later in the season, meaning we'll be able to see how much Ward has improved by then.

Wins
5.6
Cleveland Browns


I generally love a QB competition, but the multitude of names in the fray in Cleveland (veterans Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders) does not make for easy forecasting. Whoever wins the job will get to face a Bengals defense in Week 1 that figures to be one of the better units for a new QB to take on, especially if Trey Hendrickson's ongoing contract situation keeps him out of the picture. But things get much hairier immediately after that. Taking on the Ravens (in Baltimore in Week 2), the Packers (in Cleveland in Week 3) and the Lions (in Detroit in Week 5) in succession, then traveling to face the Vikings in London in Week 5, would be a lot to ask of any signal-caller, let alone one who might be at the beginning of their career.

NFC win total projections | Back to top