The preseason is here! We get to watch certified Football-Like Substance! After a full offseason of hot takes based mostly on speculation, we now get to base our hot takes on the smallest of sample sizes against unrepresentative competition. What could go wrong?
In addition to overanalyzing player performances based on 10-12 plays, we get to overanalyze what’s going to happen based on hazy camp reports and purposely opaque coaches’ statements. It’s the perfect system!
Never fear, intrepid fantasy drafter. I’m here to cut through some of the noise to determine if there’s any signal there. For the next couple of weeks, I’ll dive into some of the NFL’s more intriguing headlines and let you know how seriously you should take them.
Remember, everything you read here will be static and will in no way change over the next few weeks.
And if you believe that, I have some beach front property in Omaha I’d like to offer you.
NOTE: Average draft position (ADP) is based on a 12-team format and FantasyPros consensus rankings as of 9:30 a.m. ET on August 15.
Hype train
1) Chargers OC Greg Roman says "no matter what happens" there will be a rotation at running back.
Hype Train might not be the best description of my reaction to this news. But the conceit of this column is a binary choice -- and I certainly don’t think this is a smokescreen.
When the Chargers spent a first-round pick on Omarion Hampton in this year's draft, there was mild excitement from the fantasy community. I say mild because Los Angeles inked veteran Najee Harris to a deal in free agency six weeks prior. The same Najee Harris who has had at least 1,200 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns in each of his four NFL seasons.
After Harris suffered an eye injury in an Independence Day fireworks incident, fantasy drafters took an even greater shine to Hampton. News about Harris has been scarce, but one thing we know is he hasn't been practicing with the team. When he posted a Snapchat selfie where it appeared that one eye was closed, the Internet Conspiracy Factory went into overdrive.
I haven’t been convinced that Hampton is staging a backfield takeover in Los Angeles. Not yet, at least. That belief was reaffirmed this week when Roman said “the day of the one running back taking every rep, it's kinda gone the way of the prehistoric creatures."
Roman’s actions match his words. In five of the last six offenses he’s coordinated, his teams have had two running backs with at least 100 carries. Only LeSean McCoy (234 with the Bills in 2016) and Mark Ingram (202 with the Ravens in 2019) have topped 200 carries in his offenses over that span. If the past is prologue, Hampton might not see enough touches to pay off his current mid-fourth round ADP.
2) Sam Darnold reportedly "acing it" in Seahawks camp.
Darnold was fun in 2024! He had his first 4,000-yard season! He threw 35 touchdown passes! Not only did he help Justin Jefferson retain his value, but Darnold boosted Jordan Addison. Heck, Darnold even had standalone fantasy value, finishing the season as a top-10 quarterback.
When you’re a journeyman NFL quarterback having a career year, everyone is waiting for you to eventually vomit all over your shoes. Then came poor showings against the Lions in Week 18 and the Rams in the playoffs. Just like that, the football-watching world turned into Pointing Rick Dalton.
Darnold’s signing with the Seahawks seemed like it was met with a shrug this offseason. The fantasy world has responded by making Darnold the QB27 in ADP -- behind players like J.J. McCarthy, Cam Ward, Michael Penix Jr. and Geno Smith.
What if Darnold has a second act in him? According to reports, he’s ahead of schedule in picking up Klint Kubiak’s offense. The veteran signal-caller is going undrafted in most leagues. But if Cooper Kupp has anything left and Jaxon Smith-Njigba can make the proverbial leap to a new tier of receivers in his move to the outside, Darnold could be a waiver wire hero.
3) Rookie RB Bhayshul Tuten "gaining steam" at Jaguars camp.
We use all sorts of metrics to determine which players to draft in fantasy football and how we think they will perform. We worry about snap counts, target shares, yards over expectation and a slew of other advanced stats that the average person doesn’t know or care about.
(Honestly, that’s for the best. There are healthier ways to spend your time than looking up Rico Dowdle’s missed tackles forced percentage. It’s 23 percent, by the way.)
One thing we sometimes overlook is what the team is telling us. And not necessarily with words. If coaches were totally forthcoming, no one would ever need to write a Hype Train or Smokescreen column. How teams deploy players and build rosters tell us a lot about their feelings. What the Jaguars have told us is that they don’t have full faith and confidence in Travis Etienne.
Last season, Etienne played nearly 50 percent of Jacksonville’s snaps, per Next Gen Stats. That number felt high when you consider Tank Bigsby’s attempted takeover of the backfield. Bigsby’s conquest failed, in part, because of his four fumbles -- second-most for a running back with fewer than 200 carries. But the message was clear. The Jags were looking for an alternative at running back. Or at least a complement.
Enter Bhayshul Tuten. Jacksonville spent a fourth-round pick on the explosive back from Virginia Tech. While he’s also had ball security issues in his past, the camp reports have been positive. I’m not so naïve as to think Tuten will challenge for the RB1 job. But he could push Bigsby for touches. More importantly, he could do just enough to dampen Etienne’s opportunity and muddy an already unappealing fantasy backfield.
Smoke screen
When Ben Johnson took over as the Bears’ head coach, you knew he was going to bring changes to a long-stagnant Chicago offense. Caleb Williams is expected to play more under center and incorporate more play-action. Rome Odunze is predicting a role that plays to more of his strengths.
And then there’s Moore. He was the team’s leading receiver in each of the last two seasons. This year, it seems like Johnson has even more in mind for him. Moore worked with running backs coach Eric Bieniemy to study backfield route concepts. The idea is to create mismatches by lining up the team’s best receiver in an unorthodox spot.
The reason I’m throwing the cow manure flag is that we have rarely seen moves like this pay off in a significant way. In Deebo Samuel’s magical 2021 season, he lined up in backfield on just 10 percent of his snaps. It helped him produce eight rushing touchdowns, but it didn’t do much for his receiving numbers. Samuel ran a total of 13 routes from the backfield, logging one catch for nine yards.
In more recent vintage, Jayden Reed played seven percent of his snaps from Green Bay’s backfield in 2024. He was much more productive as a pass-catcher from that spot than Samuel. Nonetheless, seven catches for 54 yards aren’t anything to get excited over.
It’s fun to talk about Johnson dabbling with scheming up new opportunities for his best receiver. But let’s pump the brakes on thinking this wrinkle will significantly elevate Moore’s production.
2) Jayden Daniels' connection with Deebo Samuel reportedly growing by the day in Commanders camp.
Smokescreen might not be the best description of my reaction here. But again -- binary choice. I have no doubt Daniels and Samuel are getting more acquainted with one another on the field, especially with Terry McLaurin on the PUP list after requesting a trade. What I’m more skeptical of is how much it will translate to fantasy football.
Fantasy managers can be loath to give up hope after a player puts together a magical season. That leads them to overdrafting a player. Or drafting a player and holding onto him while trying to guess when the big weeks are going to come. If that’s your modus operandi with Samuel this year, I wish you Godspeed.
It’s not that Samuel is a bad player. Quite the contrary. He’s an excellent real-life footballer. He’s a mediocre (at best) fantasy option. His 2021 season continues to look more like an outlier with each passing year. Samuel has had only one other campaign with more than 1,000 scrimmage yards and double-digit touchdowns. In San Francisco, it didn’t matter since Deebo did a lot of the little things that helped the Niners offense go.
Perhaps Kliff Kingsbury figures out how to get the best out of Samuel. Or perhaps Samuel continues to be the Jenga piece for a real NFL team while remaining a fantasy enigma. Either way, a few connections during seven-on-seven drills shouldn’t sway you into moving a receiver up your draft boards.
3) Travis Kelce believes his production might have "slipped" with "more focus" on his opportunities as an entertainer.
Taylor Swift is the greatest thing that has happened to the NFL since Tim Tebow. No, I will not be explaining any further. But for all Tay-Tay’s powers, it seems there will always be those pushing the narrative that she’s somehow to blame when her pass-catching beau struggles on the field or when his team gets smoked in the Super Bowl. Forget Kansas City’s 15-2 regular season and a berth in a third straight Big Game. They’ll say the reason Kelce and the Chiefs got poleaxed by the Eagles was because he was too busy cavorting on stage during a pop star’s world tour.
While Kelce himself didn’t put any blame on Swift in the comments published by GQ, he probably isn’t doing anything to quiet the narrative by suggesting that maybe he was a teensy bit distracted by his recently skyrocketed Q rating. After all, these days it’s hard to avoid seeing one Kelce or another podcasting, pitching products, or portraying poltergeists.
I can’t imagine the Chiefs loved hearing that analysis after one of the least productive seasons of his career. Good news! I’m here to offer a much simpler explanation: Maybe Kelce is just declining.
There’s no shame in that. I’m Pull-a-Muscle-In-My-Neck-While-Sneezing years old. I get it. Father Time eventually walks all of us down. According to Next Gen Stats, Kelce’s average speed, burst score and percentage of yards after the catch were all the lowest marks he’s posted in the past five seasons. Saying you’re more focused on the day job feels like a way to shrug off a down year. But it’s more likely that Kelce is just in his Getting Old Era.
(Please don’t come after me, Swifties.)
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a man who should probably go to bed. Send him your late-night tomfoolery or fantasy football questions on Bluesky @marcasg.bsky.social or TikTok at marcasgrant.