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Dan Parr 2026 NFL mock draft 1.0: Jets trade back into Round 1 for QB; Commanders go RB

With the Super Bowl less than a week old, the offseason roster churn is still subject to our imagination right now. The NFL Scouting Combine starts in a couple weeks and free agency is still a month away. A lot will change between now and draft day on April 23, but that’s not going to stop me from speculating about what will unfold once the Raiders are officially on the clock.

I’m projecting one trade in my first mock of the year, with a team moving back into Round 1 to make its third pick of the night. Here’s my initial forecast for the first 32 picks.

NOTE: NFL Network and NFL+ will have live coverage of the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine beginning Feb. 26.

Pick
1
Indiana · QB · Junior (RS)

Barring a team offering the largest trade compensation EVER for the No. 1 overall pick, I can’t see the Raiders passing up a chance to escape the quarterback wilderness.

Pick
2
Ohio State · LB/Edge · Junior

Reese will be the highest-graded player on a lot of boards this year. The Jets are going to need a quarterback before they can get off the mat (SEE: Pick No. 28 in this mock), but they can’t afford to get cute here.

Pick
3
Utah · OT · Junior

Arizona must improve in the trenches if it’s ever going to compete with the heavyweights in the NFC West. Fano steps in to start from Day 1 at right tackle.

Pick
4
Texas Tech · Edge · Senior

GM Mike Borgonzi helps new head coach Robert Saleh by giving him a bona fide quarterback hunter off the edge. With All-Pro stud Jeffery Simmons and gargantuan run stuffer T'Vondre Sweat already in place on the interior, Tennessee could be building a dominant defensive front.

Pick
5
Miami · OT · Junior

Protecting Jaxson Dart is paramount. With RT Jermaine Eluemunor headed for free agency, the Giants add a bookend opposite Andrew Thomas.

Pick
6
Ohio State · S · Junior

Cleveland could pick a wide receiver or offensive lineman here -- there are more than enough needs to go around. But in this scenario, the Browns reinforce their strength on the defensive side of the ball. Downs becomes a versatile enforcer on the back end. 

Pick
7
Notre Dame · RB · Junior

There might not be a better way to help Jayden Daniels bounce back from a rough Year 2. With Love joining the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year in the Commanders’ backfield, Washington’s run game would be dizzying to defend.

Pick
8
Ohio State · WR · Junior

The Tyler Shough era gets a major shot in the arm. New Orleans boasts a dangerous 1-2 punch of former Buckeyes receivers with Tate playing opposite Chris Olave.

Pick
9
Miami · Edge · Junior

Bain could certainly hear his name called earlier in the top 10. If he’s still available here, I’m sure defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo would be delighted to add a big dose of nastiness to his front line.

Pick
10
Penn State · OG · Junior (RS)

The Bengals know they’re not going anywhere without a healthy Joe Burrow, so they fortify the offensive line. Ioane is a plug-and-play starter at guard.

Pick
11
LSU · CB · Senior

Fortune smiles upon new Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley, who ends up landing the draft’s top cornerback with his first pick on the job. Miami addresses a massive void at the position.

Pick
12
Ohio State · LB · Senior

Revitalizing the Cowboys’ defense will be a large undertaking, but Styles helps immensely in that effort. The sideline-to-sideline menace is a great value at No. 12.

Pick
13
USC · WR · Junior

The Rams go shopping in their own backyard and give themselves an embarrassment of riches at receiver. Good luck to the defenses charged with stopping Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Lemon, who earned an Amon-Ra St. Brown comp from NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein.

Pick
14
Arizona State · WR · Junior (RS)

As talented as he is, Zay Flowers can’t carry the receiving corps by himself. So, another WR flies off the board as the Ravens look to do right by Lamar Jackson, giving him a tough pass catcher who can go up and get it.

Pick
15
Miami · Edge · Senior

The Miami product's age -- he turns 25 in April -- will get a lot of attention leading up to the draft. But for a Bucs team that is presumably in win-now mode, Mesidor is an edge rusher who is ready to contribute from Day 1. The home-state hero is an excellent fit for Todd Bowles' defense.

Pick
16
(via IND)
Tennessee · CB · Junior

This could be a spot for a receiver, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see former defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn double down on D in Round 1. The Jets use a pick they acquired by trading Sauce Gardner to select his replacement.

Pick
17
Alabama · OT · Junior

With Taylor Decker contemplating retirement, the Lions can’t mess around and end up taking another step back on the offensive line. Even if Decker returns, Proctor could slide inside to guard and be a massive piece for Detroit up front.

Pick
18
Clemson · CB · Junior

Terrell gives Brian Flores options in the secondary, allowing Minnesota's defense to be even more amoeba-like with the versatility of Byron Murphy Jr., Isaiah Rodgers and this rookie from Clemson.

Pick
19
Auburn · Edge · Junior

Faulk won’t turn 21 until September and might require some patience as he acclimates to the next level. If it all comes together for him, he has the upside to provide the pass-rush juice Ejiro Evero needs from his defensive line.

Pick
20
Texas A&M · Edge · Senior

The Cowboys use a pick acquired in the Micah Parsons trade to nab a high-energy pass rusher who can play opposite 2025 second-rounder Donovan Ezeiruaku.

Pick
21
Washington · WR · Junior (RS)

Whether it’s Aaron Rodgers or someone else taking snaps for Pittsburgh in 2026, the Steelers must give their quarterback better weaponry to complement DK Metcalf. Boston has the size and strength to make the tough grabs.

Pick
22
Oregon · S · Junior

An interior offensive lineman could easily be in play for the Fighting Harbaughs, but Thieneman’s production and versatility are too enticing to pass up. The safety gets a chance to learn from one of the best at the position, Derwin James.

Pick
23
Clemson · OT · Senior

Even if Lane Johnson does return, the Eagles should prepare for life after the six-time Pro Bowler. After all, he turns 36 in May and is coming off an injury. Miller, who made 54 consecutive starts at Clemson, can serve as understudy until his day comes.

Pick
24
Georgia · OT · Junior

There are too many question marks on the offensive line for Cleveland to bypass the position twice in Round 1. Freeling made just 16 starts at Georgia and will need some runway as he adjusts to the NFL, but the rebuilding Browns can afford to give him time.

Pick
25
Toledo · S · Senior

With Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard and C.J. Gardner-Johnson ticketed for free agency, the Bears seem likely to be keeping a close eye on the top safeties in this year’s class. Landing McNeil-Warren -- who has Pro Bowl potential, per colleague Daniel Jeremiah -- would be a coup.

Pick
26
Ohio State · DT · Junior

GM Brandon Beane absolutely must add help at receiver for Josh Allen this offseason, but fixing a run defense that allowed 136.2 yards per game in 2025 (28th in the league) is on the agenda, too. Enter the 6-foot-3, 326-pound McDonald, who majors in stuffing the ground game.

Pick
27
Texas A&M · WR · Junior

Concepcion can get open quickly and make plays after the catch, which should vibe well with Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Receiver reinforcements could be high on the to-do list with Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne headed for free agency. Also, Brandon Aiyuk is on his way out of town, if he hasn’t already left.

Pick
28
Alabama · QB · Junior (RS)

PROJECTED TRADE WITH HOUSTON TEXANS


Fearing the Rams could snatch Simpson as the heir to Matthew Stafford four picks before the Jets are on the clock at No. 33, New York parts with that selection -- along with a fourth-rounder this year and next -- to move up and secure the consensus QB2 in the class. GM Darren Mougey should keep taking swings at quarterback until it’s safe to end the search.

Pick
29
Utah · OT · Sophomore (RS)

Following longtime starting right tackle Rob Havenstein’s retirement, the Rams pluck Lomu, who started on the left side for the past two seasons at Utah. He would benefit from some time to develop before he’s expected to compete for starting snaps.

Pick
30
Oregon · TE · Junior

The draft’s top tight end falls right into Sean Payton’s lap, allowing the Broncos to reunite Bo Nix with his former Oregon teammate. Sadiq brings versatility and explosiveness to Denver’s offense.

Pick
31
Clemson · Edge · Junior

Parker’s long-arm move -- the talk of the Senior Bowl -- seems like it will play well in the film room with Mike Vrabel. If K’Lavon Chaisson departs in free agency, the Patriots will have a glaring need at edge rusher.

Pick
32
Tennessee · CB · Sophomore (RS)

Fresh off a Super Bowl run, John Schneider reloads at cornerback, with Riq Woolen and Josh Jobe among the Seahawks' impending free agents. Hood is a physical cover man who should fit well in Seattle.