Bills vs. Jaguars: Three must-know storylines for Sunday's playoff game

Sunday's playoff slate kicks off with one of the more intriguing matchups of Wild Card Weekend as the sixth-seeded Buffalo Bills go on the road to face the No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars.

It will settle the score of an all-time series matchup that's even at 10 wins apiece, including playoffs (Jaguars, 2-0). The Bills have lost their last three games in Jacksonville, including a wild-card game in 2017.

The Jaguars are undefeated (3-0) at home in the Wild Card Round, the last win being a historic 27-point comeback against the Chargers in 2022. That game was the last playoff win for the franchise.

Jacksonville will look to stay perfect on Sunday while extending a streak of eight straight wins to conclude the 2025 regular season -- the second-longest win-streak in franchise history. The Jaguars boast an NFL-best +153 point differential since Week 11.

Buffalo, winners of five of its last six games, appears in the playoffs for the seventh straight season, looking to go a step further than last season's AFC Championship Game appearance.

Three must-know storylines

1. Who helps Allen overcome his road playoff woes? Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 0-4 in road playoff games in his career, the last three losses taking place in Kansas City (K.C. eliminated Buffalo from the postseason in four of the last five seasons). Buffalo's heartbreak hasn't fallen squarely on Allen, who surpassed 270 total yards of offense in all four of his career road playoff games, averaging 351.0 yards per game, including a postseason career-high 397 yards against the Chiefs in the 2021 Divisional Round. The Jaguars have allowed 270-plus total yards to seven different quarterbacks in 2025, so Allen could be primed for a productive outing as long as his sore foot holds up. But which pass catchers step up for him has been a week in, week out mystery. Buffalo is one of six teams that didn't have a player with 725-plus receiving yards. Khalil Shakir led the receiving corps as Allen's go-to option on short passing plays while tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox produced in Buffalo's often-used 11-personnel scheme. The lack of a deep threat for Allen in 2025 has been glaring. Second-year wideout Keon Coleman underwhelmed and Josh Palmer (ankle; out) struggled to stay healthy and build a rapport, leading the Bills to bring back Gabe Davis and add veteran Brandin Cooks late this season. Tyrell Shavers has shown flashes downfield but remains a situational threat. It's not to say one of Allen's receivers has the ability to break out against the Jaguars' pass defense, which can be seen as the unit's soft spot (218.1 yards per game; 21st in NFL) -- the question is who will help get the Bills' star QB out of this postseason road slump. Allen has won at least one playoff game in five straight appearances, the longest streak in league history by a player without reaching the Super Bowl in that span, per NFL Research. Allen's playoff shortcomings figure to be a constant underlying storyline during Sunday's game, especially with his archnemesis (Chiefs) out of the running, but before furthering that discussion, the reigning MVP must first do something he's never done in the playoffs: win on the road. He's shown up consistently despite the results, but who also rises to the occasion is the prevailing question.
2. Watch out for Jacksonville's X-factors. The Jaguars joined the 2025 Patriots and 1999 Colts as the only teams in NFL history to win 13-plus games in the following season after losing 13-plus games -- an impressive turnaround facilitated by Liam Coen. Jacksonville's rookie head coach and offensive play-caller has been a revelation who has unlocked Trevor Lawrence, who posted a career-high 38 total touchdowns while leading a Jaguars offense that averaged a franchise-record 27.9 points per game in 2025. Coen's influence has brought a persistent passing offense to Jacksonville that is peaking at the right time. Lawrence has spread the ball to a solid wide-receiving trio in Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers, who was acquired in a midseason trade. Tight end Brenton Strange served as Lawrence's security blanket. Washington led the team with 847 yards off 58 receptions, 17 of which have been for 20-plus yard gains. The Jaguars' home run hitter comes into Sunday hot with 347 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his last three games, but his play-making isn't limited to offensive play. Washington brought his 2025 touchdown total to seven with a pair of scores on punt returns, becoming the first player to have 750-plus receiving yards and multiple punt return TDs in a single season since DeSean Jackson did it in 2009. Washington is a sneaky X-factor the Bills must keep an eye on, but Jacksonville's kicker is another key element who could come into play. Cam Little made the two longest field goals in NFL history this season, a record-breaking 68-yarder in Week 11 and a 67-yard FG in Week 18. A kicking weapon like that is a scary proposition for opposing teams, especially at the end of each half and potentially overtime.
3. Divergent ground attacks could shape outcome. James Cook, Buffalo's most reliable offensive playmaker outside of Allen and the NFL's rushing champion in 2025, will lock horns with the league's top-ranked defense against the run -- the 10th such matchup of bests in NFL playoff history, per NFL Research. The Jaguars yielded 85.6 yards per game on the ground and 68.0 YPG to running backs; that kind of dependability often pigeon-holed opposing offenses and created opportunity for a defense that forced 31 takeaways (23 interceptions, nine fumbles; 2nd in NFL). The Bills, of course, led the league in rushing with Josh Allen and Ray Davis also producing. Meanwhile, stopping the run has been a struggle for the Bills defense all season (allowing 136.2 YPG) and that's been somewhat of a shock from Sean McDermott's team. Jacksonville began the season with a balanced attack, leading Travis Etienne to his third 1,000 yard campaign, but running the ball consistently has been an issue as of late with Etienne averaging 3.6 yards per carry since Week 10. However, that decline hasn't prevented the Jaguars from winning their last eight games. Not allowing Jacksonville to find its ground groove on Sunday will be crucial for the Bills, who boast the league's top passing defense and thrive on controlling games by keeping their offense on the field with Cook rushing and Allen making back-breaking plays.

Bills' Wild Card Weekend injury report

Jaguars' Wild Card Weekend injury report

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