Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. Today's installment covers:
But first, a look at this potential season of change in the AFC ...
When I entered the NFL as a rookie with the Buffalo Bills in 1994, I joined a team fresh off four straight Super Bowl appearances. Although the dynastic run did not produce a Lombardi Trophy, the franchise seemingly mastered the art of reaching the final game of the season by adopting a process-oriented approach that prioritized winning the division title on the way to making a Super Bowl push.
While I was too young to understand the genius in Marv Levy's ways, the Hall of Fame head coach repeatedly told the team that winning the AFC East was the only way to earn a guaranteed spot in the postseason tournament. Moreover, the confidence and momentum gained from taking the division title helped Levy's squads win hard-fought battles against the league's top teams in the playoffs.
Fast-forward to 2025, and the AFC could be in the midst of a transformative season. In each of the past two years, the conference has seen the same four division champions:
- AFC East: Buffalo Bills
- AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
- AFC South: Houston Texans
- AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
In fact, the Chiefs (with nine straight West titles) and Bills (with five straight East crowns) have each enjoyed a stranglehold on the division for many years.
But beyond the halfway point of the 2025 regular season, four new teams sit alone atop their respective divisions:
- AFC East: New England Patriots
- AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
- AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
- AFC West: Denver Broncos
With some unfamiliar names and stars at the top of the leaderboard, it's time to evaluate the four division front-runners. Which one has the best chance to finish on top? The worst chance? Let's rank 'em, 1-4.
Why they should win the division: It is hard to imagine Daniel Jones being the catalyst to a Super Bowl run, but the former top-10 pick has completed the Colts' offensive puzzle with his management skills and dual-threat playmaking abilities, allowing Indianapolis to build a 2.5-game lead in the division. Despite some recent turnover woes, Jones' efficient passing skills and underrated athleticism perfectly complement Jonathan Taylor's rugged running style. With the duo flawlessly executing the stretch-bootleg series, the Colts' offense has found various ways to punish opponents for their over-aggressiveness, with Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Alec Pierce running free down the field. If Sauce Gardner can assimilate into a Lou Anarumo-led defense that is built to play with a lead, Indianapolis could take the division, earn the AFC's No. 1 seed and cruise to a Super Bowl with the most complete team in the conference.
Why they could fall short: Questions persist about Jones' ability to hold his own in shootouts against top quarterbacks. Can "Indiana Jones" outduel upcoming opponents like Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy if the game requires him to jump into a phone booth, shed his game-manager garb and put on the Superman cape? As a former turnover machine with a penchant for coming up small in big moments, Jones must take care of the ball without becoming tentative or timid within the pocket. While the Colts' QB1 has showcased the ability to operate as fearless playmaker this season, he must manage his recklessness down the stretch in order to help the Colts take the AFC South for the first time since 2014.
Why they should win the division: Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel are operating at MVP and Coach of the Year levels, respectively, leading the Patriots to the top of the division. The second-year quarterback has taken a quantum leap at the position, with his arm talent, athleticism and awareness flourishing in Josh McDaniels' offensive scheme. From his timely deliveries from the pocket to his impromptu highlight plays, Maye's playmaking skills have transformed the Patriots into an efficient offensive machine. Though their dominance is not always reflected on the scoreboard, the unit's ability to control the game and clock, at Vrabel's discretion, has made New England a team few want to face.
Why they could fall short: The Bills are a game back in the loss column right now, but you have to imagine Josh Allen and Co. will make a push in the next couple months. The Patriots' inexperience could get the best of them when the pressure rises down the stretch. The outcomes and implications can overwhelm young players who suddenly become clock watchers when the game gets thick. Although Vrabel has a collection of veterans on each side of the ball with significant experience and expertise, the grizzled coach will need to teach this crew how to win big games through trial and error.
Why they should win the division: If defense wins championships, the Broncos should remain atop the AFC West. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph paints weekly masterpieces with a collection of explosive pass rushers and man-to-man coverage specialists harassing quarterbacks and suffocating pass catchers at every turn. The unit's ability to completely dismantle opposing game plans -- racking up sacks in bunches -- has enabled Sean Payton to win games with a low-risk, pedestrian offense. With Denver's defense capable of holding the line at 17 points or fewer, opponents have a difficult time matching stops with this new version of the "Orange Crush."
Why they could fall short: It is hard to win big games against playoff-caliber teams utilizing a one-dimensional approach. While the Broncos' defense can keep them in every game, the sputtering offense has been unable to finish drives consistently, with quarterback Bo Nix failing to take a step forward in Year 2. Without a consistent rushing attack or a dynamic passing game, the Broncos are forced to scratch and claw for every yard and point. Denver has a two-game lead over Kansas City in the loss column, but the Chiefs still have two shots at the Broncos in the regular season, including this Sunday's matchup at Mile High. The Chargers are currently one game back, but they already beat the Broncos in Week 3 and will visit Denver in Week 18. This race is far from over, and it is hard to imagine the Broncos claiming the division crown without an offensive resurgence in the next couple months.
Why they should win the division: On paper, the Steelers seemingly have everything needed to finish the job. The combination of a four-time MVP quarterback and a defense loaded with experienced big-play specialists could help Mike Tomlin roll to a division title and secure his first playoff win since the 2016 campaign. Given the individual and collective winning experiences of a squad with multiple Super Bowl champions, the Steelers should finish the season strong, with their urgency and intensity overwhelming their foes.
Why they could fall short: The Steelers are maddeningly inconsistent in all areas. Despite boasting a veteran-laden defense with multi-time Pro Bowlers at all three levels, the unit surrenders too many big plays. While some personnel changes, lineup tweaks and schematic adjustments have yielded better results, Pittsburgh must dominate defensively to overcome a scattershot offense that operates like a dink-and-dunk factory behind this 41-year-old version of Aaron Rodgers. If the defense is unable to keep the score down or create scoring opportunities on turnovers, the Steelers lack the firepower to succeed against top competition. With Lamar Jackson healthy again, Baltimore is approaching fast, and the Ravens still have both games left against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's division lead feels tenuous, at best.
Trend Watch: The rise of 13 personnel
Sunday provides a highly anticipated showdown in the NFC West, with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Seattle Seahawks in a clash of red-hot 7-2 teams. Not only does the game offer a classic quarterback battle between a pair of top MVP candidates, but it will spotlight one of the NFL's hottest trends. The unexpected rise of 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends and one receiver) has taken the league by storm, as offensive coordinators lean into heavy personnel groupings to create and exploit mismatches all over the field.
The trend began to emerge in 2024, with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals both utilizing 13 personnel on 15.1 percent of offensive snaps, comfortably leading the league. But the Rams have surpassed that figure this season by using 13 on 16.9 percent of their snaps, an astounding rise from Los Angeles' 0.3 percent usage rate in 2024. This speaks to the advantages created by the versatility of a package with the potential to morph from a short-yardage/goal-line formation to an exotic spread set that challenges the rules of defensive schemes and the talents of defenders.
From a defensive perspective, the three-TE lineup creates a dilemma for the play-callers, as they must decide whether to send extra linemen or linebackers into the game to defend the various Power I formations and unbalanced sets that can create extra gaps at the line of scrimmage and running lanes that are unaccounted for. Additionally, when an offense lines up with multiple tight ends on the same side of the field, defenders must be prepared to make the necessary checks and adjustments that apply to any shifts or motions altering the offense's strong side.
With clever offensive play-callers also featuring one or two hybrids (tight ends with wide receiver skills) in the rotation, defensive coordinators must have multiple sub-packages available to handle the big-body chaos created by the 13 personnel groupings.
Sean McVay clearly enjoys these advantages, as he has significantly increased Los Angeles' 13 personnel usage in recent weeks. After deploying the package on 38.7 percent of snaps against the Jaguars in Week 7, the Rams came back from their Week 8 bye and had usage rates of 45.5 percent against the Saints and 44.8 percent versus the 49ers. Considering L.A. averaged a league-best 37.0 offensive points per game during that four-week span, the mastermind has clearly found a cheat code that has defensive coordinators searching for answers.
Studying the tape, it is apparent opponents are having difficulty countering the various formations the Rams are incorporating with 13 personnel on the field. Kyren Williams and Co. are not only cruising through sizable holes on running plays, but Matthew Stafford routinely finds big-bodied pass catchers running free on drags, crossing routes and post-corners without a defender in sight. The combination of play-action fakes, snug formations and subtle pick routes has defenders scrambling to stay with their assignments in man or zone coverage.
In the bigger pictures, packages with multiple tight ends on the field are all the rage. Stafford has totaled a league-best 249 pass yards and eight touchdowns out of 13 and 23 (2 RBs, 3 TEs, 0 WRs) personnel, per NFL Research. Combine those numbers with some of the other gaudy stats produced by quarterbacks operating in heavy formations -- Seattle's Sam Darnold leads the NFL with 887 pass yards and seven touchdowns out of 12 (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) and 22 (2 RBs, 2 TEs, 1 WR) personnel -- and you have to imagine the larger trend will continue to grow.