NFL Week 10 overreactions: Five storylines we're not sweating

In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season, including:

• Top three risers/sliders from Week 10
• Three games worthy of NFL Pro deep dives
• Most intriguing game of Week 11
• Midseason MVP rankings

But to kick things off, five storylines we shouldn't be too quick to overreact to ...

Week 10 just gave us a whole lot of crazy. There were plenty of good teams with strong records who either lost or came close to doing so. There also were a decent number of struggling teams who played much better than their records would suggest. Of course, that Thursday night game between the Raiders and Broncos gave us something bizarre as well, as in, you probably don't want to see that again.

It was all just more proof of how wild this entire season has been. The parity we were talking about a month ago is still very much a part of what we're seeing today. It's why this week's edition of The First Read is all about taking a breath and not making too much out of what we've witnessed. The biggest mistake you can make in a year like this is thinking you've finally figured everything out.

So today we're talking about the importance of avoiding overreactions. This was a weekend when there could be plenty of that, but patience is the better way to operate. There is plenty of time to sort all this stuff out. And we all should expect more surprises by the time we finish next weekend.

With that in mind, this is what we're not going to overreact to …

1) Buffalo taking a blowout loss to the beleaguered Dolphins. The Bills usually have at least one tight game with the Dolphins every year, which is why this loss wasn't that surprising. The shocking part was how bad Buffalo played in this 30-13 defeat. The Dolphins were hearing their fans boo them relentlessly in a Thursday night loss to Baltimore a week ago, while the Bills were dominating the Chiefs in their annual heavyweight matchup. It's fair to wonder if Buffalo came into this contest flat after putting so much into beating Kansas City. It's also possible that the Dolphins wanted to make a statement after taking a hit to their own pride in the Ravens' defeat. Regardless of what went down, it's not worth spending too much time wondering why this result happened.

Divisional games in the NFL are always harder because there is so much familiarity between opponents. Yes, it hurts the Bills in their attempt to win a sixth straight AFC East title. This defeat coupled with New England's win over Tampa Bay means Buffalo is now 1.5 games behind the Patriots and losing out on a tiebreaker (since New England beat the Bills earlier this year). The reality is the Bills are good enough to make a run at the Super Bowl even if that means going into the postseason as a wild card. Having home-field advantage would matter if mostly if they met the Chiefs in the playoffs again, and they still hold the edge in that regard (by having a better record over Kansas City and the tiebreaker with that Week 9 win). We'll see the Bills in January one way or another. They still have a relatively soft schedule over the next eight games, and nobody thought they were finishing the year undefeated anyway.

2) The Colts struggling with Atlanta after the Sauce Gardner trade. There's been a ton of buzz around the Colts all week, ever since they sent two first-round picks to the Jets for the right to add the cornerback to their roster. It was a move that told everyone in the league that Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard seriously thinks this is a year when his team can make a run at a championship. The problem is that a move like that doesn't mean the Colts are suddenly going to start pummeling every opponent they face. Sunday's 31-25 overtime win over Atlanta in Berlin was exhibit A of that. The Falcons have been one of the least potent offenses in the league all season, as this weekend's game marked only the second time they've hit the 25-point mark. It's fair to have questions about Atlanta's offense perking up in the first game Indianapolis played with Gardner in uniform. It also would be ridiculous to use such an insanely small sample size to draw conclusions about what that trade will mean for the team moving forward. The Colts did give Gardner a lot of snaps against Drake London, Atlanta's best wide receiver, which is a better indication of what Gardner will mean down the road. The Colts traded for Gardner because Ballard knows winning the AFC means going through quarterbacks like Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, Buffalo's Josh Allen and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson. In fact, Indianapolis will see Mahomes in two weeks, which likely also is part of Ballard's calculation. The Colts are sitting in a great spot to earn the top seed in the AFC, as their 8-2 record currently ties them with New England and Denver for best in the league. If Indianapolis can beat Kansas City and survive its remaining schedule -- with games against Seattle, San Francisco and four divisional meetings with Jacksonville and Houston -- then it's going to be set up well. Gardner is here for that stretch. And just as was the case in Germany, the only thing that matters is that the Colts keep winning.

3) Denver's offensive problems hitting a new low against Las Vegas. We can all agree that what happened on Thursday Night Football was painful to watch for many reasons, with Denver's offense ranking high on that list. The Broncos gained just 220 yards in that 10-7 win over the Raiders while converting only five of 15 third-down situations and committing two turnovers. Denver actually might have lost that game if the Raiders were any good. Instead, the Broncos improved their winning streak to seven and put themselves in position to seize control of the AFC West in a huge matchup against Kansas City next Sunday. That's the important thing to start with here. Denver is still tied for the best record in the league. There's also something to be said about a team that can win even when its quarterback is battling through epic problems. As bad as Bo Nix was against the Raiders -- he was 16-for-28 for 150 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions -- he at least knows how to be a clutch performer. The Broncos have four fourth-quarter comebacks this season because he's been able to shake off his struggles and deliver in critical moments. That stuff still matters even when the overall effort looks ugly. It also helps that Denver has other ways to win. The defense has been on a record pace with 46 sacks through 10 games. The running back duo of J.K. Dobbins and running back RJ Harvey also has become a solid tandem (although Dobbins sustained a foot injury late in that Raiders win). The success of this team basically doesn't rest entirely on Nix being able to outplay Mahomes, Allen or Jackson. Head coach Sean Payton also is smart enough to find ways to help Nix play better. The Broncos quarterback improved as he played deeper into last season. There should be some hope in Denver that he can do the same thing this year.

4) The Bears needing a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Giants. If you haven't sensed the theme developing here, then it's time to spell it out: Winning trumps everything. Even if the ugly wins look pretty once you see their impact on the standings. That should be the takeaway for Chicago. The Bears may have done little offensively for almost 55 minutes, but they still walked away with a 24-20 victory over the Giants. That means the Bears have now won six of their last seven games. It also means they're currently tied with Detroit for second place in the NFC North with a 6-3 record (although Detroit has the tiebreaker with the Week 2 head-to-head win). Put it this way: The Bears would be the seventh seed in the playoffs if the postseason started today. They would take that scenario in a heartbeat if we really were on the cusp of ending the regular season right now. The Bears have spent the last few years scratching and clawing to be in a position where they can stack wins. It doesn't make sense to criticize how it looks now that it's happening. This is still a team with a first-year coach and a second-year quarterback, and a long history of frustration associated with not having a winning season since 2018. Every step forward makes a difference. And the fact is that sometimes you need a little luck. The Bears were having a hard time defending rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, but a concussion sidelined him at the end of the third quarter with Chicago trailing, 20-10. Maybe the Bears lose if Dart isn't replaced by Russell Wilson. It's possible but it shouldn't matter now. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams rallied his team to the win, and Chicago already has more victories than all of last year. That's called progress. And the Bears should never apologize for making it.

5) Carolina losing to the Saints in Tyler Shough's second start. The Panthers losing to the Saints falls into the same category as the Bills losing the Dolphins and the Broncos surviving a rock fight with the Raiders. Divisional games are a different beast, even when teams going nowhere are standing on the opposing sideline. Give Shough credit for playing well (19-for-27 for 282 yards with two touchdowns) despite dealing with a depleted offensive line. Just don't act like this was the day Carolina turned into a pumpkin. Most teams in the NFL don't learn how to win overnight. They have to push through a process of fits and starts, with each game teaching them something more about how to handle success in the NFL. The Panthers aren't any different. Just because they were good enough to win in Green Bay two weeks ago as 13-point underdogs doesn't mean they're going to overwhelm every team they see with a woeful record. It's clear head coach Dave Canales has to teach his squad to be more consistent. Third-year quarterback Bryce Young has to be more reliable on a weekly basis as well, since he only threw for 124 yards with an interception. The Panthers defense also can't let a rookie quarterback have a day like that at this time of year. These are painful lessons for Carolina to learn but it doesn't mean they can't apply them in next week's matchup with Atlanta. As tempting as it is to look at the schedule and decide where a team is going to thrive and where it's going to struggle, the league doesn't usually make it that easy. You can do that with the proven winners. The teams sitting where Carolina is (5-5) have to take a different route. Yes, it would've been better for it to get a win over New Orleans in anticipation of what's coming down the road, as the Panthers will see the 49ers, Rams, Seahawks and Bucs (twice) in the final six games of the season. It also would've been silly to think a couple victories against lesser teams would make that stretch less daunting. The Panthers always had to go through tougher opposition to prove themselves as viable contenders. They just have to do it now with one less win under their belt.

THREE UP

THREE DOWN

WORTHY OF NFL PRO DEEP DIVES

1. Texans over Jaguars. Houston overcomes a 19-point deficit late in the third quarter with backup quarterback Davis Mills scoring the go-ahead touchdown with less than minute remaining
2. Bears over Giants. Chicago trailed by 10 points in the fourth quarter when quarterback Caleb Williams rallied a slumbering offense and led his team to its sixth victory in seven games
3. Patriots over Buccaneers. New England proved its success isn't just about an easy schedule as quarterback Drake Maye threw two touchdown passes in a matchup that went back and forth all game.

MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 11

MVP WATCH

A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 11 (with DraftKings odds as of 12:45 a.m. ET on Monday, Nov. 10):

EXTRA POINT

My slowly evolving Super Bowl pick, which also will be updated each week, depending on performances: Bills over Lions.

Previous picks:

• Week 9: Bills over Lions
• Week 8: Bills over Lions
• Week 7: Bills over Lions
• Week 6: Bills over Lions
• Week 5: Bills over Eagles
• Week 4: Bills over Eagles
• Week 3: Bills over Eagles
• Week 2: Bills over Packers
• Week 1: Ravens over Packers

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