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A friendlier schedule doesn’t guarantee success in the NFL. After all, just ask the Miami Dolphins, who were gifted what would end up being the lightest slate in 2024, based on opponents’ win percentage, and yet finished 8-9 with a 2-6 start.
Tua Tagovailoa’s injury had a little something to do with the results. But it’s further proof that there should be no assumptions in the NFL.
Yet, several other teams who enjoyed more favorable schedules last season took advantage of them, including Philadelphia. The Eagles most certainly didn’t luck their way into a Super Bowl title, but they weren’t hurt by the lineup of opponents, either, playing their best ball of the season when it counted most: at the end.
The Commanders and Chargers, even with far different postseason results, also leveraged their reasonable paths to post their highest franchise win totals in years.
So, while there’s really no such thing as an “easy” schedule, there are some that -- for various reasons -- are less challenging than others. We’ve known the opponents for some time, but now we know how the games line up, so I’m identifying the teams most capable of benefiting not just from who they play but also when.
- Strength of schedule: .457 (T-27th)
- Prime-time games: 1
Starting with three of the first four games away from home isn’t the best opening act, and the three road opponents could be significantly improved. There will be some buzz for Jaguars WR/CB Travis Hunter’s debut, the Cardinals are eyeing a division title and Mike Vrabel should have the Patriots more on track.
But once you get past the opening stretch, Carolina’s schedule isn’t all that bad on the surface. Three early home games against the Falcons, Dolphins and Cowboys look like fairly even matches and good tests for the ascending Panthers. The Bills-Packers cluster at midseason will ratchet the competition up, but there’s a nice buildup to those games. For a defense that allowed the most points in NFL history last season, there might not be a truly daunting offensive opponent until Buffalo comes to town.
The Panthers also have the luxury of having only one division game in the first nine weeks. There’s only one West Coast trip (at San Francisco, Week 12), with everything pretty close to home thereafter. They finish with three of the final five games at home, along with the Week 14 bye.
This team can make some noise this season if it weathers the early road tests, plus a few other tough games spread throughout, but this isn’t a bad schedule at all for Carolina.
Week 1: at Jaguars
Week 2: at Cardinals
Week 3: Falcons
Week 4: at Patriots
Week 5: Dolphins
Week 6: Cowboys
Week 7: at Jets
Week 8: Bills
Week 9: at Packers
Week 10: Saints
Week 11: at Falcons
Week 12: at 49ers (MNF)
Week 13: Rams
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: at Saints
Week 16: Buccaneers
Week 17: Seahawks (TBD)
Week 18: at Buccaneers
- Strength of schedule: .474 (T-21st)
- Prime-time games: 5
The Dolphins open on the road, but it’s against a Colts team with a QB quandary. Miami then gets some weather luck by bringing the Patriots into the Week 2 South Florida cauldron and avoiding what might have been a cold-weather game by playing at Buffalo on Sept. 18, in Week 3.
Three of the next five are on the road, but that doesn’t look like a terrible stretch to manage. By the time we get to the Dolphins’ Week 12 bye, after their toughest stretch of the season -- Ravens and Bills in Miami and the Commanders in Madrid -- we should have an idea of whether they are built to contend.
Potential cold-weather games loom in December (at Jets, Pittsburgh and New England), but outside of their trip to Spain, every one of their games this season is in the Eastern time zone. It’s a fair tradeoff for a team trying to rediscover its identity this season.
Week 1: at Colts
Week 2: Patriots
Week 3: at Bills (TNF)
Week 4: Jets (MNF)
Week 5: at Panthers
Week 6: Chargers
Week 7: at Browns
Week 8: at Falcons
Week 9: Ravens (TNF)
Week 10: Bills
Week 11: Commanders (Madrid)
Week 12: BYE
Week 13: Saints
Week 14: at Jets
Week 15: at Steelers (MNF)
Week 16: Bengals (SNF)
Week 17: Buccaneers
Week 18: at Patriots (TBD)
- Strength of schedule: .467 (T-23rd)
- Prime-time games: 5
It might be tough for the Bills to go unbeaten at home again in their farewell season at Highmark Stadium, with some heavyweights coming to town in 2025. But the Bills absolutely could become road warriors, with a great chance to better their 5-4 road mark from a year ago.
The Ravens opener in Buffalo will be a barn burner, but they’ll now have all summer to prepare for Lamar Jackson. Even if they lose that one, the path to the Week 7 bye is pretty clear, including three straight home games. That is early for a rest week, and the Bills really did seem to benefit from their later bye (Week 12) last season, but the back half is set up fairly well for them.
The Bills play six away games after the bye, but they only cross one time zone all season: for a tricky Thursday game at Houston in Week 12. The Chiefs, Buccaneers, Bengals and Eagles also come to Buffalo this season, but there’s a one- or two-week buffer between all of them where the competition looks less steep.
Even with some true cage-match games on the schedule, a healthy Bills team is once again poised to win a lot of games.
Week 1: Ravens (SNF)
Week 2: at Jets
Week 3: Dolphins (TNF)
Week 4: Saints
Week 5: Patriots (SNF)
Week 6: at Falcons (MNF)
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: at Panthers
Week 9: Chiefs
Week 10: at Dolphins
Week 11: Buccaneers
Week 12: at Texans (TNF)
Week 13: at Steelers
Week 14: Bengals
Week 15: at Patriots
Week 16: at Browns
Week 17: Eagles
Week 18: Jets (TBD)
- Strength of schedule: .419 (31st)
- Prime-time games: None
The vibes around the Saints have not been the best lately, but -- depending on how the quarterbacks shake out -- perhaps there should be more optimism around this team.
September will be a challenge, even with two home games out of the chute in Kellen Moore’s debut, right back in the stadium where he won it all with the Eagles in February. The Saints will face four competitive teams right away, including tough road trips to Seattle and Buffalo.
But even with a tough start, none of those first four opponents outwardly look like daunting matchups for whoever wins the Saints’ QB battle. All of those teams added defensive pieces this offseason, and they’ll be jelling just like the New Orleans offense. Even with some teams that can rush the passer on the slate, I am not sure there’s an elite defense on the entire schedule.
The Saints do have four pairs of back-to-back road games, but they get consecutive home weeks (games or bye) prior to three of those pairs. Four road games in the final six weeks is notable, but finishing at Tennessee and Atlanta isn’t the wildest road doubleheader ever. And zero prime-time games? That might serve the team well. After all, coaches crave consistency.
There’s sort of a rhythmic flow to the schedule, with the Week 11 bye falling nicely on the back half. Maybe with a rookie quarterback potentially starting, New Orleans might have wanted it to fall a little earlier. The Saints were also pretty wiped out, injury-wise, by their Week 12 bye last year, but the law of averages suggests they will have better luck this season.
Week 1: Cardinals
Week 2: 49ers
Week 3: at Seahawks
Week 4: at Bills
Week 5: Giants
Week 6: Patriots
Week 7: at Bears
Week 8: Buccaneers
Week 9: at Rams
Week 10: at Panthers
Week 11: BYE
Week 12: Falcons
Week 13: at Dolphins
Week 14: at Buccaneers
Week 15: Panthers
Week 16: Jets
Week 17: at Titans
Week 18: at Falcons (TBD)
- Strength of schedule: .429 (30th)
- Prime-time games: 3
The Patriots went 2-6 in Foxborough last season, and that counted a Week 18 victory against a Bills team resting its starters. New head coach Mike Vrabel knows he has to do far better than that at Gillette Stadium.
Three of the first four games are at home, with the Raiders, Steelers and Panthers coming to town. Those are games the Patriots will have a chance to win. Three straight road games follow, which is usually a big red flag, and one of them is Buffalo in prime time. But the subsequent trips -- at New Orleans and at Tennessee, for Vrabel’s homecoming -- could be against rookie quarterbacks.
There’s a tough Bills-Ravens cluster back-to-back in December. Yet New England has winnable home games against the Browns, Falcons, Jets, Giants and Dolphins after Week 7.
Throw in the Week 14 bye, and things look manageable, even with some tough road tests. Three home games in September and two with a bye in December is an ideal flight path in Vrabel’s first season. Dare I even ask if there are enough wins here to make a postseason run?
Week 1: Raiders
Week 2: at Dolphins
Week 3: Steelers
Week 4: Panthers
Week 5: at Bills (SNF)
Week 6: at Saints
Week 7: at Titans
Week 8: Browns
Week 9: Falcons
Week 10: at Buccaneers
Week 11: Jets (TNF)
Week 12: at Bengals
Week 13: Giants (MNF)
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: Bills
Week 16: at Ravens
Week 17: at Jets
Week 18: Dolphins (TBD)
- Strength of schedule: .467 (T-23rd)
- Prime-time games: 1
There’s suddenly some excitement in Duval, with a new head coach, a new GM who just hand delivered two-way phenom Travis Hunter to town and a schedule that might be -- dare I say -- pretty favorable, all things considered.
They’ll have to navigate a five-game buildup to start the season, starting with an improved Panthers team at home and gearing up through the Week 5 Monday-nighter against the Chiefs. The Jags also play in London against a tough Rams team and have a few trips out West, including a tough December battle in Denver.
But outside of that, things couldn’t line up much better for Liam Coen as he tries to construct an offense. The good news is, he’ll have some time built in, with only one division game before Week 10. And it comes with a smoother landing, too, with five of the final six games coming against the Titans, Colts and Jets.
Week 1: Panthers
Week 2: at Bengals
Week 3: Texans
Week 4: at 49ers
Week 5: Chiefs (MNF)
Week 6: Seahawks
Week 7: Rams (London)
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: at Raiders
Week 10: at Texans
Week 11: Chargers
Week 12: at Cardinals
Week 13: at Titans
Week 14: Colts
Week 15: Jets
Week 16: at Broncos
Week 17: at Colts
Week 18: Titans
- Strength of schedule: .415 (32nd)
- Prime-time games: 5
Last season was no fun for the 49ers or their fans, but the stay at the bottom of the division might not be long. Assuming San Francisco has patched enough holes on the roster and doesn’t suffer the kind of unfortunate injury luck it did a year ago, this team is poised to return to the playoffs.
Start with this: Who is the best opponent they face? The three division opponents will be tough, and road games against the Buccaneers and Texans also dot the schedule, but I don’t believe the 49ers will be facing many Super Bowl contenders this year.
They open with two on the road, but you could draw a lot worse than at Seattle and New Orleans. There’s also a thorny spell of four road games in a five-week span, including against the Rams (a Thursday game), Houston and Tampa Bay. They have two East Coast trips and five games scheduled to start at 10 a.m. PT, which you also have to factor in.
But this puppy wraps up rather nicely, with games against the Panthers and Browns, a Week 14 bye, three home games and a road trip to Indianapolis. Even two Monday night games in that span can’t mar that stretch run much. It could work out that the Niners end up facing four rookie quarterbacks, along with Michael Penix Jr., who will have made less than a season’s worth of starts by the time Atlanta and San Francisco square off in Week 7.
The 49ers are set up for a return to success in 2025.
Week 1: at Seahawks
Week 2: at Saints
Week 3: Cardinals
Week 4: Jaguars
Week 5: at Rams (TNF)
Week 6: at Buccaneers
Week 7: Falcons (SNF)
Week 8: at Texans
Week 9: at Giants
Week 10: Rams
Week 11: at Cardinals
Week 12: Panthers (MNF)
Week 13: at Browns
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: Titans
Week 16: at Colts (MNF)
Week 17: Bears (SNF)
Week 18: Seahawks (TBD)