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Facts, not emotion should rule your WR picks this week

The Target Report for this week is cutthroat. During the season, and even the early rounds of the playoffs you can afford to take a chance on a player coming off a big week or two. But the stakes are raised. It's Title Week. You're likely playing for all the marbles, which means you have to be very discerning as to who you put in your lineup. There's no room for emotions or trying to nurture a player into having a big week. It's black and white. You're in or out, just like in 'Ocean's Eleven.'* To the Target Report we go.

Target analysis

How about three Lions in the top 10 for targets? This is why you never bench Calvin Johnson, but believe it or not there were plenty of people on Twitter who wanted to sit him this past week because he's been on a cold streak. Burleson has been slightly more reliable than Young but both are emerging. Here's the thing: for championship week can you ride with either of these pass catchers in your flex? They're home against San Diego, which is red hot offensively so you'd expect a shootout. I'm more confident with Burleson than I am on Young for this week. If you have an injury issue, then I can see going with Young, but only then…

Nate Washington and Lavelle Hawkins were also teammates in the top 10 -- who'd have thought the Lions and Titans would make up HALF of this list. Washington is someone you have to play this week as your flex or a No. 3 WR. He's offered solid production the last month and you want as sure a bet as you can have in that slot. Hawkins has had a pretty decent last few weeks and is garnering more and more attention, but would you start him this week? Probably not…

Demaryius Thomas has had either a TD or a 100-yard game in his last three contests and is clearly Tim Tebow's go-to guy. They're at Buffalo this week which may not portend for a huge game through the air, but Thomas is a must-start in all formats. He's a good No. 2 or an excellent flex…

Stevie Johnson was having a nice game against the Dolphins before exiting with a groin injury Sunday. He thinks he'll be able to go in Week 16 against Denver, but monitor him. If he plays for the Bills, he plays for you. He's been playing with this injury for the entire season and he's been able to put up fantasy numbers so feel confident if he plays…

Andre Roberts has had a couple of really good games this year for Arizona -- and leading them in targets Sunday was impressive. He's also been non-existent in too many games to give him a spot on your active roster for this week…

Chris Johnson and C.J. Spiller both saw 11 targets out of the backfield, tops this week for RBs. Johnson is who we've been saying he is the entire season. Some weeks, with good matchups, he'll be great. Other weeks, he'll disappoint. But you're still riding with him against Jacksonville at home on Saturday. You are also riding with Spiller, who is becoming the M.V.R.B.P.U.O.W.A.W.T. -- The Most Valuable Running Back Picked Up On Waivers After Week Ten. Every year, there's a RB and a WR who, after lying dormant all season, suddenly goes gangbusters and carries you to a fantasy title. Spiller's big day (28 fantasy points) came on just 12 carries in addition to big production in the passing game. He's also going to get all the goal-line carries. Make sure he's a high-end No. 2 for you…

*Best line from 'Ocean's Eleven' belongs to Andy Garcia. "You know a guy…" Brilliantly delivered.

See Jason Smith on "NFL Fantasy Live," airing Sundays at 11:30 a.m. ET on the "NFL RedZone" channel, and Tuesday-Friday on NFL Network at 2 p.m. ET and 12 a.m. ET/9 p.m. PT. He writes fantasy and other NFL pith on NFL.com daily. Talk to him on Twitter @howaboutafresca. He only asks you never bring up when the Jets play poorly.

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