Every year, we here at NFL Fantasy get paid to analyze the great game of football and make predictions to help steer your fantasy teams to victory. We get plenty of those predictions right ... but we get just as many (if not more) wrong. Seeing as this is the season of giving, we're giving back to all of you by apologizing for the times we've steered you wrong in 2014. Consider these our fantasy "Mea Culpas" for the 2014 season.
You're welcome. And we're so very, very sorry.
Marcas Grant, NFL Fantasy LIVE Analyst
Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Back in May, I wrote "The timeshare is officially on in Pittsburgh, which could dampen Bell's chances of making the fantasy leap in 2014." Yeah ... about that.
At the start of the season, it had merit. LeGarrette Blount was getting plenty of carries and taking touchdowns that otherwise would have gone to Bell. Then, Blount ran afoul of the folks in charge in Pittsburgh and found himself on the unemployment line (even if it was only temporary). That's when Le'Veon Bell took off. Todd Haley began feeding Bell repeatedly. And he ate. He ate very, very well.
In the end, not only did Le'Veon Bell make the leap to being a fantasy superstar in 2014, he entered Week 17 as the game's top scoring running back. Along the way he has become one of my favorite players to watch on a weekly basis. So yeah, I was wrong. But in this case, I'm happy I was.
EJ Manuel, QB, Buffalo Bills: I took a look back at my list of sleepers from this preseason and while I saw Toby Gerhart's and Cordarrelle Patterson's names at the top of my list, I don't feel quite as bad because we ALL whiffed on them.
No, it's a few names further down the list that I'm sorry for. EJ Manuel? What was I thinking? Actually, I do know what I was thinking. I was thinking that the combination of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller would keep opposing linebackers occupied. I was thinking that the young receiving duo of Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins would give opposing secondaries fits. I was thinking that having the better part of a full rookie season under his belt would give Manuel the chance to progress to bigger things.
I wasn't thinking that Manuel wouldn't be able to hit the ocean from the edge of a pier. I wasn't thinking that things would get so bad that fans would be clamoring for Kyle Orton by the fifth week of the season. And I certainly wasn't thinking that by late December, we wouldn't have thought about the name EJ Manuel for months.
So if I start thinking about talking up Manuel again anytime soon, remind me that I should think again.
Jarrett Boykin, WR, Green Bay Packers: When it came to deep sleepers, I knew that the Packers third receiver was bound to make a fantasy impact this season. I just predicted that Packers receiver to be Jarrett Boykin. Midway through last season, Boykin was a playmaker. He had a pair of 100-yard receiving games and seemed to have something going with Aaron Rodgers.
That was all before Davante Adams became a thing. Adams not only became one of the more productive receivers in that offense, but could be Green Bay's No. 2 receiver next season if Randall Cobb doesn't re-sign with the team.
In the end, Boykin had a total of 12 targets in 2014 with just three catches. In the realm of deep sleepers, we're still waiting on Boykin's wake up call.
Adam Rank, NFL Fantasy LIVE Analyst
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Minnesota Vikings: I'd also like to throw my red flag onto the field for Marshawn Lynch, Devonta Freeman (I will wear John Cena shoes next year) and a few others. But I must take responsibility for Cordarrelle Patterson. He was my "ride or die" guy for the 2014 season. I had him in every league. Every league. I completely bought the finish of 2013 and the arrival of offensive coordinator Norv Turner.
Oh boy.
I felt like a champ after he had one great game against St. Louis. He proved everything I had said about him in the preseason. Super stardom was his.
And then we all know what happened.
Patterson didn't reach double-digits again this year. He failed to reach double-digits when he scored his second (and last) touchdown of the year in 2014. Patterson was awful. And he likely stayed on your roster for weeks. I should know. I kept him on my team too long.
So I apologize on behalf of Patterson. I vow to be better next season.
James Koh, NFL Fantasy LIVE Host
Marshawn doe ...
A number of experts (hand raised) feared Lynch had been worked into the ground after back-to-back seasons of 300-plus carries. Given his age and all the offseason instability surrounding his contract and future with the team (read: distractions) there were real concerns that the Beast would see a sharp decline following a stellar 2013 campaign.
Not only did he prove his detractors wrong, he did it in spectacular fashion amassing nearly 1,600 total yards and 16 total touchdowns (as of Week 16) en route to his BEST fantasy season ever.
In my defense, I said it then and I'll say it now: this was one bold prediction I was happy I got wrong. Lynch has long been a personal favorite not only because of his violent running style but also because of his unique personality. A largely misunderstood enigma, Marshawn has refused to bend to accommodate us in the media. Some of my media colleagues have chafed at his recent interview sessions but my take? There have been FAR worse in the locker room. Lynch for his part is not rude, not combative, and as a matter of fact, his non-answers are actually usable for both game reporters and columnists alike. So why all the belly aching??? (See what I did there?)
ERRRRRRRRRRRR.
My bad. I guess technically, if I really wanted to, I could weasel out of this one because Martin dealt with an ankle injury for a bulk of the season, but who am I kidding? Martin looked more Sheneneh than Doug-ernaut this season averaging a woeful 3.4 yards per carry.
To those of you I convinced to spend a late second- or early third-round pick on his services, I apologize profusely.
Alex Gelhar, NFL Fantasy writer/editor
Toby Gerhart, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Ah, what could have been. After spending chunks of my summer analyzing Gerhart's game tape, I was high on the bruising back getting his first chance at a starting gig, and even said he reminded me of Eddie Lacy at times. (Whoops.) What I didn't anticipate was an early season ankle injury that stripped him of his already pedestrian lateral agility and any semblance of burst through the line of scrimmage. I also didn't foresee the Jaguars trying to run him constantly to the outside (Why? Seriously, why? I want answers!). Anyway, apologies if I was one of the many fantasy enthusiasts who inflated your evaluation of Gerhart and forced you to spend an early- to mid-round draft pick on him. There's always next year, though.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Freeman was a super under the radar pick, but I loved him nonetheless. I thought he was a perfect pick for the Falcons offense, and moreover I wasn't sold that Steven Jackson could carry the load once again coming off an injury-plagued, ineffective 2013 campaign. I figured Freeman could be a late-round steal, eventually usurping the starting role in a high-powered offense. I was wrong. So very very wrong. I apologize if you were a fantasy owner who ended up wasting a precious late-round draft pick on Freeman at my recommendation as opposed to a high-upside player like DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Ingram or even ... Odell Beckham. That being said, keep an eye on Freeman in 2015 fantasy drafts!
