Running backs have been considered the most valuable offensive skill position players in fantasy football. But in what has been a bizarre 2007 season, wide receivers have increased their production in the box scores and overall value for owners. While we tend to look at receptions, yardage and touchdowns to rate wide receivers and tight ends, one of the most important categories is often overlooked -- targets.
Simply stated, "targets" are the number of times the football is thrown to a receiver. The more opportunities a receiver has on offense, the better his chances are to produce on the field. When we look inside the numbers, it's obvious that the increase in production from receivers this season mirrors an increase in overall targets.
Torry Holt led the NFL in targets last season with 144 (source: Elias Sports Bureau), but this season's current leader (T.J. Houshmandzadeh) is on pace for over 230. What's more, the 10 most targeted players last season averaged 114.2 targets. This season, the top 10 are on pace to average 169.5 targets -- that's over 55 more targets.
As we enter the second half of the fantasy regular season, it's more important than ever to know who's seeing the most chances to produce, even if their overall numbers are less than impressive. As a result, I've listed the top 20 most-targeted receivers after six weeks and some of their projected totals for the full season. You'll notice that the list includes a lot of big names, but even the No. 2 or 3 fantasy wideouts on the list should be considered more valuable simply because of their added opportunities.
1. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincinnati (72 targets): One of our favorites here at NFL.com, Houshmandzadeh is averaging over 14 targets a game in a high-octane Bengals offense. With 47 receptions, 505 yards and seven touchdowns in five starts, Houshmandzadeh is on pace to finish the season with career bests across the board.
2. Derrick Mason, WR, Baltimore (69 targets): Mason was a serious disappointment last season, but he is back on the fantasy radar in 2007. A stud in those leagues that reward points for catches, Mason averages 11.5 targets a game and is on pace to finish with a career best 131 receptions based on his current level of production.
3. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona (67 targets): Fitzgerald has averaged 11.2 targets a game and is on pace for close to 110 receptions on the season. Fitzgerald will see his targets decrease once Anquan Boldin returns from an injured hip, however, and it won't be a positive for his value if Tim Rattay sees significant time under center.
4. Chris Chambers, WR, San Diego (66 targets): Chambers hasn't found the end zone even once this season, but it's not due to a decrease in chances in the pass attack. The veteran wideout out of Wisconsin was on pace to record 1,100-plus yards in South Florida, but that could be hard to reach now that he's with the Chargers.
5. Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati (60 targets): One of the most talented wideouts in the NFL and fantasy football, Johnson is on pace to finish the season with 115 receptions, 1,800-plus yards and around 10 touchdowns. After five games, however, Houshmandzadeh has been a better statistical option for fantasy owners than Ocho Cinco.
6. Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas (56 targets): Despite the fact that he drops too many passes, Owens is still on pace to record 70-plus receptions, 1,200-plus yards and 11 touchdowns. He could see fewer chances if and when Terry Glenn returns from an injured knee, but T.O. remains one of the most feared wideouts in fantasy football.
T-7. Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay (55 targets): Driver has seen his numbers fall over the past three weeks, but it's not from a lack of opportunities. He has still seen 23 targets in that time, but those chances haven't turned into fantasy points. Driver should reverse his fortunes soon, however, and the Packers will continue to look for him.
T-7. Randy Moss, WR, New England (55 targets): While his overall numbers have fallen over the past two weeks, Moss is still seeing an average of 9.2 targets a game. Teams have definitely turned their defensive focus on putting the clamps on him, but Moss is too talented not to finish with close to 1,500 yards and 15-20 touchdowns.
T-7. Steve Smith, WR, Carolina (55 targets):Fantasy owners freaked out when Smith lost Jake Delhomme was lost for the season, so it was nice to see Smith targeted 12 times with Vinny Testaverde under center. Smith is averaged just over nine targets a game and is still on pace to record 1,300-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns.
10. Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego (54 targets): The fact that Gates is the most targeted tight end in the NFL is no shock. He possesses the skills and abilities of a wide receiver, and he'll continue to be the top option for Philip Rivers. Based on his current totals, Gates will finish with 115 catches and close to 1,500 yards.
T-11. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, N.Y. Jets (53 targets): Cotchery has failed to find the end zone after six weeks, but he should do so soon based on the fact that he sees close to nine targets a game. The N.C. State product is also on pace to record career bests in receptions (93) and yards (1,293) and is a nice option in PPR formats.
T-11. Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland (53 targets): The ultimate breakout wideout of the season, Edwards has become a touchdown machine for fantasy owners. He has seen close to nine targets a game and has found the end zone every 4.1 catches, which is an incredible statistic. Edwards is on pace for 1,400 yards and almost 20 touchdowns.
T-13. Bernard Berrian, WR, Chicago (52 targets): Berrian scored his first touchdown of the season against Minnesota, and he leads all Bears with close to nine targets a game. The speedster out of Fresno State is on pace to record the first 1,000-yard season of his NFL career, and he should find the end zone four to six times.
T-13. Laveranues Coles, WR, N.Y. Jets (52 targets): Despite the fact that he was held out of the end zone in a loss to Philadelphia, Coles is still averaging one score for every 8.2 catches. Even on a Jets team that has been miserable after six weeks, Coles will continue to see chances and is still a solid No. 2 fantasy wideout.
T-13. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Kansas City (52 targets): The second tight end in the top 20, Gonzalez has hauled in an incredible 73 percent of his targets and is on pace to record his third NFL season with 1,100-plus yards. The veteran will also score at least eight touchdowns for the fourth time in his career based on his current numbers.
16. Wes Welker, WR, New England (51 targets): One of the most underrated wideouts in the NFL, Welker has been a tremendous find for the Patriots and fantasy owners alike. The smallish but durable receiver is averaging 8.5 targets a game and is on pace to record 100-plus receptions, 1,029 yards and eight touchdown catches.
T-17. Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis (50 targets): Injuries to Marc Bulger and the Rams offensive line have hurt the value of Holt, who is on pace to record his lowest yardage total since his rookie season of 1999. He's is also seeing close to one fewer target a game compared to last season, but Holt is still too explosive to reserve.
T-17. Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland (50 targets): Winslow has been able to avoid injuries or setbacks with his surgically-repaired knee, and he's on pace to record 1,300-plus yards based on his current numbers. That would be more than his Hall-of-Fame father ever had in a season. Winslow will remain one of fantasy's top tight ends.
19. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas (49 targets): The new downfield attack the Cowboys utilize under aggressive offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has made Witten an absolute superstar at his position. He has hauled in close to 66 percent of his targets, and the Tennessee product is on pace for 1,200-plus yards and 11 touchdowns.
20. Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver (46 targets): One of the season's top sleepers, the talented Marshall is averaging over nine targets a game and will finish with 1,100-plus yards based on his current numbers. His targets could decrease when Javon Walker returns, but Marshall should still see his share of chances to produce.
Waiver wire focus
Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia: Countless owners quit on Brown after a slow start, but he hauled in six passes for 89 yards against the Jets and should be more involved in the pass attack. He's a free agent in 35 percent of NFL.com leagues.
Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis: Bulger is expected to return to action this week and has a nice matchup on the road against Seattle. Believe it or not, Bulger is available in over 20 percent of NFL.com leagues.
Najeh Davenport, RB, Pittsburgh: Davenport's status is in question due to off-the-field issues, but he'll be a nice one-week option in Week 7 against a Denver defense that ranks dead last against the run.
Kevin Faulk, RB, New England: Laurence Maroney (groin) and Sammy Morris (chest) are both hurt, so Faulk could see a more significant role this week against a Miami defense that ranks 31st against the run.
Jeff Garcia, QB, Tampa Bay: Garcia hasn't been a statistical monster, but he's a nice one-week option against a Detroit defense that has allowed a total of 10 passing touchdowns in five games.
David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville: Garrard has averaged a solid 17 fantasy points in NFL.com's standard scoring system, and the versatile quarterback is still a free agent in over 30 percent of NFL.com leagues.
Brian Griese, QB, Chicago: Griese scored an impressive 27 points in a loss to Minnesota, and he can help fantasy owners when the matchup is favorable. He's available in over 40 percent of NFL.com leagues.
D.J. Hackett, WR, Seattle: Hackett has a chance to return from an injured ankle this week, and that could mean a prominent role in a Seahawks offense that will be without Deion Branch for at least one more game.
L.J. Smith, TE, Philadelphia: Smith didn't do much against the Jets, but he's close to 100 percent recovered from an injured groin and is well worth a roster spot for owners that need a tight end.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina: Williams broke out with 121 rushing yards and one touchdown in Week 7 against Arizona, and he's still a free agent in close to 30 percent of NFL.com leagues.
Mailbag
Should I release one of Donald Driver, Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith and add Devin Hester? I'm worried about the quarterback situations in Arizona and Carolina, and Driver has been a bust the past few weeks. -- J. Allen, Little Rock, Ark.
M.F.: There's no chance I would drop any of these wideouts for Hester. As talented as he is on the field, Hester still warrants little consideration as a wideout in the world of fantasy football.
I need to start two wide receivers from Nate Burleson, Lee Evans and Shaun McDonald. In what has been a bizarre season, should I sit Evans? -- J. Schmidt, Rockford, Minn.
M.F.: Based on the numbers, I would start Evans and Burleson. Evans has what seems like a tough matchup against Baltimore, but the Ravens have allowed eight receiving touchdowns after six weeks and an average of almost 220 receiving yards per game.
