Super Bowl LX is set and it’s a matchup that should produce another great game in a postseason that has been flush with those. The Seattle Seahawks outlasted the Los Angeles Rams with a 31-27 victory in the NFC Championship Game. The New England Patriots survived the Denver Broncos and the elements in a 10-7 win in the AFC Championship Game. Both of those contests came down to the final minutes. This year’s Super Bowl could involve its own level of late-game suspense, largely because of the similarities between these squads.
Both teams are coached by two of the best in the business (Mike Vrabel in New England and Mike Macdonald in Seattle). They each have quarterbacks trying to establish their own legacies (Drake Maye and Sam Darnold) and the defenses are no joke. If you like physical football, you are about to watch plenty of it. These teams are built to win by bullying their opponents down after down.
The first question to ask now that Championship Sunday has ended is obvious: Who’s going to win this thing? That’s where this edition of The First Read comes in. This game will be fun and it will come down to a variety of factors. These are the five that will make the biggest difference in the eventual outcome …
1) Will Sam Darnold save his best for last?
It’s difficult to imagine Darnold doing more than he just did in his team’s NFC championship win over the Rams. The same guy who had been in game-manager mode for the second half of the regular season -- he hadn’t thrown for more than 300 yards since a Week 9 win over Washington -- overwhelmed the Rams defense in his best performance of the year. Darnold outdueled Matthew Stafford, as the Seahawks quarterback finished with 346 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. More importantly, Darnold ended all discussions about whether he can thrive in big-game situations. All the skeptics who smirked when he imploded in his final two games in Minnesota -- one of which included a blowout loss to these same Rams in the Wild Card Round -- can now shut the hell up. Darnold had his share of doubters when he signed with Seattle. They slowly vanished as he led the Seahawks to a 14-3 record, the NFC West title, the top seed in the NFC playoffs and a 41-6 Divisional Round win over the injury-riddled 49ers. This was the game Darnold needed to have, as the Seahawks won because he was on their side and there wasn’t a soul-crushing mistake to be found anywhere.
Now Darnold leads the Seahawks into Super Bowl LX against a New England team that has been winning largely because of its defense. The Patriots have abused Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud and Denver’s Jarrett Stidham on the way to winning the AFC championship. Head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff surely are contemplating how to deal with Darnold and a balanced offense that ranked third in the league in scoring. There was once a time, not that long ago, when you would expect Darnold to face all sorts of questions about whether he is mentally tough enough to handle moments on such a big stage. He’s already shown that he’s strong enough to manage the pressure that comes with playing football this deep into the season. The only thing left to prove is whether he can do it one more time.
2) Can Drake Maye return to regular-season form?
The Patriots aren’t playing in their NFL-record 12th Super Bowl because Maye has been cooking throughout the postseason. They’re the AFC champions today because he’s developed a knack for making the right play when it matters most. New England beat Denver on Sunday with Maye completing 10 of 21 passes for 86 yards and no touchdowns. He’s now been sacked 15 times in the postseason -- the Broncos became the third team in these playoffs to take him down five times -- and he’s committed five turnovers. It says plenty about Maye that those struggles haven’t kept him from delivering in the clutch moments. His 65 rushing yards against Denver included the game’s only touchdown, as well as a 7-yard run that gave New England the first down that clinched the win in final two minutes. Maye also ran for 66 yards in a wild-card win over the Los Angeles Chargers after he started slowly in the first half of that contest. This is nothing new for Maye, whose 450 rushing yards in the regular season ranked fourth-highest among quarterbacks. The problem is the Patriots aren’t winning a seventh Super Bowl against a defense as stingy as Seattle with him doing a Michael Vick impression. Maye became a finalist for this year’s Most Valuable Player because he terrorized opponents with his arm and his mobility. The man led the league in passer rating (113.5) and completion percentage (72 percent) while throwing for 4,394 yards with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. There’s no way any sane Patriots fan would’ve felt confident with this team advancing this far without him playing close to that level. Sure, weather has played a role in those struggles, as it did when flurries and chillier temperatures appeared in the second half on Sunday. Three straight games against stellar defenses also have been part of Maye’s issues. The good news is the Patriots have found ways to win without their best player delivering his best effort. The bad news is they’ll need a better formula when facing Seattle in a couple weeks.
3) Can the Patriots contain Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
New England’s defense has dominated throughout the postseason, largely because every opponent it's faced has failed to muster a reliable passing game. Part of that success is the result of a disruptive front, but the Patriots’ back end has been equally impressive. To understand how dominant that unit has been, Denver wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. produced the best performance against New England this postseason, and he finished with 62 receiving yards (52 of which came on one play). The Patriots understand the challenge that awaits them in the Super Bowl will be much tougher than anything they have faced so far. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the league with 1,793 receiving yards and accounted for 46.2 percent of Seattle’s total yards through the air. He was just as dominant in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game, finishing with 10 receptions for 153 yards and a touchdown. It also helps that Seattle can count on a savvy veteran receiver like Cooper Kupp and a speedy weapon like Rashid Shaheed to open more room for JSN to operate.
The Patriots will counter with a secondary that isn’t short on playmakers, either. Christian Gonzalez has become one of the best cornerbacks in football, a player who didn’t allow a reception in New England’s wild-card win over the Chargers and sealed Sunday’s victory with an interception. Carlton Davis has been just as reliable at the other outside corner spot, while nickel back Marcus Jones returned an interception for a touchdown in the Divisional Round win over Houston. That victory against the Texans was the signature moment for the Patriots defense, as they rattled quarterback C.J. Stroud and intercepted him four times. It didn’t even matter that Houston’s Pro Bowl wide receiver Nico Collins missed that game with a concussion. New England’s defense is good enough to terrorize most passing attacks. They will have to do that once again with this season’s best receiver operating on the other side.
4) Which HC will be more prepared for the moment?
The competition for NFL Coach of the Year is a tough one to call this season because there are so many viable candidates. The two men leading their teams in Super Bowl LX have as solid an argument as anybody else in that race. Vrabel took over the Patriots one year after they finished 4-13 and immediately taught them what it takes to have a championship-caliber culture. Say what you will about the benefit of a fourth-place schedule, but the Patriots earned the right to play for the Lombardi Trophy. Vrabel built a team that is hungry and prepared and capable of causing problems for opponents in all three phases of the game. Macdonald has done many of the same things during his two seasons in Seattle. He’s paired a suffocating defense with a high-scoring offense and watched his team grow a little stronger with each passing week. Just as they do in New England, the Seahawks have played every postseason game thus far as if they already had the answers to the test. Young teams that are blessed with that much confidence are extremely hard to beat once you reach this point in a season. That’s why it’s such a tough call as to which coach will get the better of the other in two weeks. Both men have quarterbacks who’ve never played in a game of this significance. There also aren’t a lot of veterans on either team who know what it’s like to compete in a Super Bowl. That’s why you can bet this game will come down to a little wrinkle, a small detail, a play that has been kept under wraps for weeks. That’s the kind of stuff that Vrabel and Macdonald do well. And it’s a given that they’ll be at their best when this game kicks off.
5) Who’s going to be the X-factor?
One quality that makes both teams special is that they each have an assortment of players who can deliver when called upon. The question in a game like this is who those players are going to end up being. There’s an obvious choice in Seattle because Rashid Shaheed has been doing great things on a weekly basis. When the Seahawks scored their first touchdown of the game on Sunday, it was Shaheed who helped set up the score by catching a 51-yard pass from Darnold on that drive. Shaheed was at it again a week earlier in that divisional win over the 49ers, as his 95-yard touchdown return on the opening kickoff set the tone in that blowout. The Seahawks try to create big plays in the run game with Shaheed as well, usually on jet sweeps that can take advantage of his breathtaking speed. He basically can be a problem from wherever he lines up, and the Patriots will be mindful of that.
New England has more options when it comes to answering a question like this because so many players have stepped up throughout the postseason. Running back TreVeyon Henderson hasn’t gotten as much run lately -- he had three carries against Denver -- but he gained 911 rushing yards as a rookie and produced four runs of over 50 yards. Wide receiver Kayshon Boutte leads the team in receiving yards in the postseason, while Marcus Jones has returned two punts and two interceptions for touchdowns this year (including playoffs). It wouldn’t be surprising if any one of those players did something in this game that shifted momentum in a major way. Both teams reached the Super Bowl by relying on more than their stars in key moments. It makes perfect sense to think that’s how one of them will end up walking away with the Lombardi Trophy.