We’re one-third of the way through the NFL regular season, and what might have in the early weeks seemed like blips have now hardened into verifiable trends. There’s still plenty of time for the season to change course -- the Eagles started last season 2-2 and went into their bye with plenty of angst, before surging to the Lombardi Trophy -- but it’s not too early to identify the genuine surprises of the early part of the 2025 campaign.
Not all of them are good. A few are confounding. But it’s time to accept that things we didn’t see coming are now legitimate features of the season.
1) Sam Darnold is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Just go look at the highlight of Darnold’s 61-yard touchdown heave to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That’s what this season has looked like for Darnold and the Seahawks offense, which has been the league’s most explosive this season. There was also a perfectly placed touchdown pass to Cooper Kupp at the left pylon. Darnold came into Week 6 in the top three of completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating. He has been sacked just seven times. His ball placement has been excellent. The Seahawks gambled in the offseason, trading Geno Smith to the Raiders and signing Darnold, whom the Vikings let go in favor of J.J. McCarthy. It has paid off for Seattle.
2) The New England Patriots' renaissance is ahead of schedule. Drake Maye is blossoming before our eyes. On Sunday, he was 18-of-26 for 261 yards and three touchdowns. All three of his touchdowns were on deep passes that traveled at least 20 air yards and came when Maye was facing pressure, according to Next Gen Stats. At 4-2, the Patriots have already matched the win totals of each of the last two seasons, and there are plenty of reasons to think this can continue. Stefon Diggs looks as good as new, Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas are contributing, and the defense entered Sunday in the top 10 in scoring defense. It would have been easy to have a letdown after the prime-time road upset of the Bills. That the Patriots stayed consistent is a testament to Mike Vrabel’s coaching. It will be interesting to see how aggressive the Patriots will be in pursuing players before the Nov. 4 trade deadline, particularly if a premier wide receiver is available.
3) Baker Mayfield should lead the race for MVP. The Bucs leading the NFC South is not a surprise – they’ve won it the last four seasons in a row. But Mayfield has elevated his game and willed the Bucs to a 5-1 record, all without playing a single game with his full complement of wide receivers. Sunday was a Baker tour de force, even after he was down his top four receivers. In the third quarter, on third and 14, the 49ers appeared to be about to sack Mayfield for a big loss. Mayfield sprung loose, rambled to his left, pump-faked a few times, kept moving, somehow eluded a defender, absorbed a hit and then dove for the first down line. Two plays later, he threw a 45-yard dime for a touchdown to rookie Tez Johnson. He finished 17 of 23 for 256 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, but it was that third quarter sequence that should be on the MVP nomination reel. He has thrown 12 touchdowns and just one interception.
4) The Indianapolis Colts are one of the most complete teams. They entered Sunday’s win over the Cardinals with a top-three scoring offense and top-three scoring defense. They can run the ball (150 yards Sunday), throw the ball (Daniel Jones has eight touchdown passes and just three interceptions), they can protect (Jones has been sacked just five times), and they still have punted just 10 times this season. They don’t turn the ball over (just six turnovers total in six games), they win in blowouts and in nail-biters, like Sunday’s victory over a Cardinals team playing with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback. All of this suggests that the Colts’ success is sustainable, because they have so many ways to win. They are the AFC’s only five-win team entering Monday's Bills-Falcons game, and they have scored 194 points through six games (most by franchise in Super Bowl era).
5) The Eagles offense lacks cohesion. The Eagles’ stunning 34-17 loss to the Giants on Thursday night was their second loss in five days, and cast a spotlight on the hiccups of the offense. The running game on which the Eagles leaned in steamrolling to a Super Bowl last season has been much less effective (Saquon Barkley has just 325 rushing yards in six games, and and his yards per attempt has dropped more than 2 yards to 3.4 yards per attempt). Jalen Hurts has been less sharp in operating the offense. The wide receivers have been frustrated by their roles. And even players are suggesting the offense is predictable. There are certainly plausible explanations -- the offensive line is banged up, there is a new play-caller in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo -- but the Eagles are held to a higher standard because they are loaded with elite offensive talent. They survived their foibles early in the season, although A.J. Brown, among others, was pointing out issues even then. And none of this is fatal. The Eagles made adjustments during their bye last season and emerged a behemoth. But if they don’t come out of their mini-bye with a clearer offensive identity, these issues threaten to make a title defense that much more difficult.
6) The Baltimore Ravens are in freefall. Full disclosure -- I picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl before the season. So their 1-5 start is truly shocking. Not much is going right for the Ravens, who scored just three points against the Rams on Sunday, and that was true even before Lamar Jackson hurt his hamstring. Injuries have ravaged the roster -- the Ravens' six highest-paid players all missed their Week 5 loss to Houston. When Jackson was playing, he was being sacked (3.75 times per game) and pressured (41.2 percent of his dropbacks) at some of the highest rates in the league. The defense is giving up an average of 32.3 points per game, 11 more than last season. Derrick Henry, even with his 122 rushing yards on Sunday, is averaging 73 yards per game on the ground, 40 fewer than last season.
Against the Rams, the first half ended with a goal-line stand, with the Rams stuffing two straight Tush Push attempts with Mark Andrews – why not just run Henry there? -- before throwing Henry for a loss on fourth down. Tyler Huntley replaced Cooper Rush at quarterback early in the fourth quarter, but the most startling part of the Ravens' season is that they have occasionally looked listless, as they did in the loss to Houston. Maybe Jackson and the rest can return after the Week 7 bye and get the Ravens back on track, but there may be too many issues, and already too many losses, to make a deep run this season.