One potential fatal flaw for every team in 2025 NFL playoffs

Biggest weakness: Run game

The entire Broncos offense has been an inconsistent jumble of fits and starts. It’s like a jerky roller coaster that you’re never sure will make it to that first peak. It’s gotten to the point where home fans were booing in Week 18 when Denver’s offense couldn’t bury Chargers backups. When Bo Nix gets rolling, the second-year quarterback can make things happen, as evidenced by furious comebacks this season. However, against playoff-caliber opponents, that’s not a recipe to stay in the tourney long. Drops and penalties have been an issue for the Broncos offense -- Nix had 313 yards lost to drops this season, fifth-most in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. The bigger concern to me is the drop-off in the running game following J.K. Dobbins' injury. The veteran running back went down in Week 10 with a ligament tear in his foot. He still leads the Broncos in rushing by 232 yards (772 to 540 for RJ Harvey). Sans Dobbins, Denver’s run game has screeched to a halt. In the first 10 weeks, Broncos running backs generated a -0.07 EPA per carry, 14th in the NFL, and 0.9 rush yards over expected per carry, tied for fourth-best. Since Week 10, those figures have plummeted to -0.14 EPA/C, tied for 25th, and -0.7 RYOE/C, 31st. Harvey has splashed some big plays and been stellar in the red zone, but Denver needs more down to down to keep Nix out of long-distance situations for the Broncos to thrive against playoff defenses.

Biggest weakness: Red zone defense  

The Patriots defense has done its part against a light schedule this season, ranking seventh in yards allowed (295.2), fourth in points (18.8), ninth in passing yards per game (193.5) and sixth against the run (101.7). It’s fair to question whether those numbers will stand up against better competition. The pass rush comes and goes, ranking tied for 22nd in sacks (35) and 16th in QB pressures (212). The real bugaboo for New England has been getting off the field when opponents venture into the red zone. The Pats have faced a league-low 40 red zone defensive drives this season. Opponents have reached the end zone on 27 of those, a 67.5% rate, third-worst in the league, and the only playoff team in the bottom 10. In their four games against opponents who reached the postseason (Pittsburgh, Carolina, Buffalo twice), the Pats allowed TDs on 12 of 15 red zone drives. That’s not great, Bob. There will come a time in the postseason when Mike Vrabel’s team will need to repeatedly bend but not break.

Biggest weakness: Waning rushing attack

There are few areas to nitpick the red-hot Jags entering the postseason on an eight-game winning streak. Trevor Lawrence has been on fire. The defense stuffs the run, creates turnovers, and while they can be beaten on the outside, still generated a -0.18 EPA per dropback, tied for second-best in the NFL. The question for Liam Coen’s club is whether the running game can come back to life. The Jags opened the season averaging -0.03 EPA per carry (T-ninth) and a 0.4 RYOE per carry (T-16th) through Week 10. Down the stretch, they’ve hiccupped their way to a -0.2 EPA per carry (29th) and -0.2 RYOE per carry in the final eight weeks. Travis Etienne was shot out of a cannon early this season, averaging 4.9 yards per tote, but trailed off, generating 3.6 YPC since Week 10. The Jags have leaned on Lawrence during their winning streak, but creating more pop in the run game could put them over the top, particularly in their Wild Card Round matchup against a Buffalo squad that struggles against the ground game.

Biggest weakness: Lack of big offensive plays

The Pittsburgh offense plays in a box. The lack of downfield shots is part of playing with a 42-year-old quarterback. Aaron Rodgers, like most aged QBs, wants to avoid hits at all costs, leading to quick passes and short dumps. Rodgers' 5.9 air yards per attempt is the lowest of any quarterback with at least 300 attempts this season (next closest: Geno Smith at 6.6). His 3.3 air yards per completion is also the fewest -- even if we filter out the past two weeks without DK Metcalf, he’s still last (5.8 and 3.4). It's notable that 26.9% of Rodgers' passes come at or behind the line of scrimmage, the highest percent in the NFL. Where the former MVP wins is with his still-pristine accuracy. Rodgers’ ability to hit his targets in stride has allowed Pittsburgh to generate 2,270 yards after the catch, second-most for any quarterback this season. With the Steelers' run game ranking 26th at 103.3 rush yards per game, the amalgam of short throws and an inefficient rushing attack has led to an offense that goes dormant for long stretches. Rodgers has been judicious with his downfield attempts this season, but to succeed in the coming weeks, he needs to let it loose more frequently, or the Steelers will see their streak of playoff futility continue.

Biggest weakness: Offensive line

Houston has been able to mitigate their offensive line struggles this season with a championship-level defense and quarterback C.J. Stroud maneuvering muddy pockets, taking zero sacks in his past three starts. However, the blocking remains the clear sore spot. Houston shuffled through combinations throughout the year, yet finished 30th in pass block win rate and 32nd in run block win rate. Left tackle Aireontae Ersery particularly struggled at times with quick pressures, allowing 22 on the season, tied for fourth-most. The rookie was also flagged for 11 penalties. The poor run-blocking stymied the Texans' run game, regardless of who was in the backfield, and they were particularly bad in short-yardage situations. Houston’s 46.3% red-zone conversion rate, 30th in the NFL, was partially a result of the inability to run the ball when the field constricts.

Biggest weakness: Lack of go-to target

With the field wide-open, no Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson in the AFC bracket, this should be the time for the Bills to finally make their run to the Super Bowl. Josh Allen's ability to make plays is otherworldly. Can SuperBill do it alone against playoff defenses? James Cook, the NFL’s leading rusher, is a weapon on the ground and as a pass catcher, but if teams take him away, a la Marshall Faulk once upon a time, Buffalo needs another threat to step forward. The lack of a go-to weapon has been an issue all season for the Bills, who have just two players with more than 425 receiving yards on the season, Khalil Shakir (719) and Dalton Kincaid (571). Buffalo has generated just five games with a 100-yard pass catcher: Keon Coleman -- who's been relegated to the sideline -- in Week 1 (112 yards); Kincaid in Week 5 (108) and Week 9 (101), Shakir in Week 12 (110), and newcomer Brandin Cooks in Week 17 (101). To rub some unnecessary salt in the wound, former Bill Stefon Diggs has five 100-plus yard games himself this season in New England. Far too often, Allen takes the snap and has zero targets open, left to improvise and create out of the structure. No one questions Allen’s ability to make magic out of leftover sawdust, but in a big spot this month, he’s going to need his targets to win off the line and make plays. Thus far, we haven’t seen it consistently from the Bills' pass-catching crew.

Biggest weakness: Offensive line

Justin Herbert got a week off in the finale to rest his pummeled body, including the surgically repaired left hand. He’s going to need it to withstand the gauntlet ahead. Injuries have forced L.A. to play 10 offensive linemen at least 173 snaps this season, with just two, Zion Johnson and Bradley Bozeman, reaching 1,000-plus snaps. Only Johnson has played all 17 games. The preseason injury to Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt being knocked out after just six games has led to massive issues at tackle. They’re not the only ones who’ve dealt with injuries. Mekhi Becton has missed time with several injuries. Trey Pipkins and Jamaree Salyer, who entered the year as backups but had to fill in, have been in and out of the lineup. It’s a mess in front of Herbert, who has seen a league-high 268 QB pressures (43.3%) and 109 quick pressures, per Next Gen Stats. That the big-armed quarterback has not only survived but played at a Pro Bowl level is nothing short of miraculous. If this banged-up unit can’t give Herbert at least some time, L.A. won’t be long for the postseason.

Biggest weakness: Turnovers

Two things are certain for the NFC’s No. 1 seed: Mike Macdonald’s defense is Lombardi-level, and Klint Kubiak’s offense is potent with a diverse run game and All-Pro receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The only thing that has come remotely close to slowing this buzzsaw is turnovers. Seattle committed 28 giveaways, second-most in the NFL, and by far the most of any playoff team (Carolina, 23). Quarterback Sam Darnold has been the biggest culprit, with 14 interceptions and six fumbles lost. Pressure issues remain the major concern. Darnold was pressured on only 29.4% of his dropbacks (sixth-fewest in the NFL, min. 300 attempts) but threw six INTs and fumbled five times under pressure. Despite leading a 14-win club, he sits 19th in QBR (56.6), fourth-worst among playoff QBs, and 15th in EPA (60.2, third-worst). When Darnold avoids the turnovers and works within the scheme, he’s been sensational, ranking fifth in yards (4,048), seventh in completion percentage (67.7), eighth in first down passes (178) and 10th in touchdowns (25). The Seahawks have a roster made for a Super Bowl. They just need to avoid the pivotal turnovers that could crush it all.  

Biggest weakness: Leaky defense

No playoff defense gets eaten up quite like Dennis Allen’s unit. Chicago allowed 361.8 yards per game, 28th in the NFL. Its 24.4 points allowed per game are the most of any postseason team, and it has allowed 227.2 passing yards and 134.5 rushing yards per game. Part of the issue is a lack of pass-rush wins off the snap. The Bears rank 32nd in quick pressures, putting pressure on the secondary and linebackers in coverage. The defensive concerns have been a problem all season, but particularly down the stretch. In six of their last seven games, they’ve allowed 300-plus yards, including 496 to San Francisco and 433 to Detroit in consecutive losses to close the campaign. Monsters of the Midway, they are not. The saving grace for Allen’s group has been turnovers, generating a league-high 33, including at least one in 10 straight games. Can Kevin Byard & Crew continue to rack up the big-play takeaways as possessions become more precious?

Biggest weakness: Disappearing offense

Thank heavens for Vic Fangio’s defense; otherwise, the Eagles would be sitting at home instead of defending their Super Bowl title. Kevin Patullo’s offense is a frustrating amalgam of head-scratching play calls and botched execution. The lack of creativity given the playmakers at hand is maddening (enough with the hitch routes!). In the 16 games Jalen Hurts started, the Eagles punted after three plays on 29.2 percent of their offensive drives, the highest rate in the NFL. Going entire halves with a goose egg, as they did against Buffalo in Week 17, is unbecoming of a Super Bowl-caliber squad. Philly is averaging 311.2 yards per game (24th), 22.3 points per game (19th), 192.3 pass yards per game (23rd) and 116.9 rushing (18th). Those are not figures that portend a deep postseason against top-tier opponents. The offensive line injuries have played a massive role in the struggles, and the plan to have Lane Johnson back for the postseason will be a welcome sight. If the O-line can stay healthy, Philly has the weapons to keep its repeat hopes alive. But if Nick Sirianni’s offense goes in the tank again, it’ll be a quick exit, even with a championship-worthy defense.

Biggest weakness: Passing attack

Bryce Young had his most efficient game in more than a month in Week 18, posting 266 yards -- just the third time he hit the 250-yard mark all season -- with a TD and an INT, yet the Panthers still put up only 14 points against a Bucs defense that hasn’t exactly been stingy against the pass this season. There have been spells when Young gets things going -- almost exclusively targeting Tetairoa McMillan. But when opponents can take away the dynamic rookie, things go awry. T-Mac put up 1,014 receiving yards and seven TDs. No. 2 was Jalen Coker with 394 yards and three scores. Among 26 quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts, Young's -0.08 EPA per dropback ranks fourth-worst. The only other playoff QB in the negative is 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers (-0.4). Since beating the Rams in Week 13, Carolina has put up more than 20 points in a game once in four tilts. With the run game slowed -- Rico Dowdle averaging 3.3 YPC and Chuba Hubbard 3.4 over the past four weeks -- the Panthers need Young to deliver. The Panthers' offense ranks 27th in net yards per pass attempt and 22nd in passing first downs and 26th in passing yards. No other playoff team ranks below 20th in passing yards entering Wild Card Weekend.

Biggest weakness: Special teams

The secondary getting picked on is of some concern, but getting reinforcements, including the potential return of safety Quentin Lake, back into the flow can help mitigate those issues -- as would a perked-up pass rush.

The big issue is the faulty special teams, which seem to have at least one flub a week. Changing coordinators helped for a week, but even in a blowout win over the Cardinals, the Rams' special teams unit allowed a fake punt. Three of the Rams' five losses came with key special teams botches (FG blocked vs. Eagles; missed FG and PAT vs. 49ers; missed FG vs. Seahawks). There were plenty more in games they’ve won. L.A. has allowed a league-high 16.0 punt returner average, per Next Gen Stats, and its return game has been middling -- at least it hasn't fumbled! Harrison Mevis has steadied some of the kicking concerns in the past nine weeks, but he missed a big one in the pivotal loss to the Seahawks. The 23-year-old’s range hasn’t been tested, with just one attempt from 50-plus yards (a 52-yarder). With points at a premium in the postseason, the Rams' special teams unit could be the aspect that keeps them from a trip to Santa Clara.

Biggest weakness: Lack of a pass rush

We’re not treading new ground here. The lack of a pass rush has been a concern since injuries sapped the Niners of their top QB disruptors. San Francisco generated a league-low 20 sacks, ranked 30th with 169 total QB pressures, and tied for 28th in quick pressures (69). The inability to affect the quarterback has a cascading effect on Robert Saleh’s defense. San Francisco has allowed 300-plus yards in four games since the Week 14 bye. In the Week 18 loss, it held Seattle to 13 points but allowed 361 yards. In their three other tilts, the 49ers gave up 24-plus points. The Niners' inability to get off the field has been an issue, allowing opponents to convert 45.5 percent of third downs -- sixth-worst over the past four weeks. A potent offense has overcome the defensive problems to keep the Niners in contention. However, in the crucible of the postseason, when they need a stop or a sack to get an offense out of field-goal range, can they manufacture enough pressure to get the job done, or will it be another "what if" season for Kyle Shanahan?  

Biggest weakness: Run defense

Matt LaFleur’s team has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. Micah Parsons is the most notable, but losing Devonte Wyatt, Tucker Kraft, Elgton Jenkins, and Zach Tom for weeks (but could return for the playoffs) has gutted the Packers. Injuries, however, aren’t a flaw. Every team deals with them at one level or another. The injuries, however, have magnified what’s been Green Bay’s biggest weakness for much of the season. The run defense, particularly up the gut, is soft and able to be exploited. It’s not just Derrick Henry, plowing them over for 216 yards in Week 17. It’s been an issue all season. Green Bay has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in eight of its past 10 games. It hasn’t held a team below 89 rush yards since Week 6. Wyatt’s absence has been massive in the middle. Not having Parsons to move around and disrupt has made it a bigger issue. Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks have flashed for spells but are inconsistent, and the rotation behind them is a group of fringe players. Couple that with Rashan Gary’s disappearing act, and Jeff Hafley’s front is a shell of what it once was. Opponents are going to run right at the Packers in the playoffs until they consistently stop it -- starting with Chicago, who rushed for 288 yards over two games against Green Bay.