NFL QB rankings, Week 16: Aaron Rodgers hurdles Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson

NOTE: Up/down arrows illustrate movement from the Week 15 QB Index.

TIER 1

• Matthew Stafford lost Davante Adams to injury against the Lions and instead turned to his tight ends, connecting with Colby Parkinson for two touchdowns. The 37-year-old continues to be the most accurate passer I've seen in the NFL this season and is the reason why the Rams are my Super Bowl favorite.
• Josh Allen is on a heater, folks. He powered an incredible second-half comeback in New England that prevented the Patriots from securing the AFC East title and sent a message to the rest of the conference. The Chiefs may be out, but Allen has returned to the peak of his powers and is embarking on a mission.
• Week 15 was a rare instance of Drake Maye failing to carry his team to victory. He paid for a risk that has often worked out in his favor this season when he launched a strike toward Mack Hollins and instead watched Tre'Davious White haul it in for a key interception. I'd like to see Maye tested again in a similar situation in the next few games, if for nothing more than a tune-up for the playoffs.

TIER 2

• Jared Goff went toe-to-toe with Matthew Stafford and the Rams for much of Week 15’s shootout at SoFi Stadium, but he couldn't overcome a trio of three-and-outs that allowed Los Angeles to climb back in front and build enough of a lead to outlast Detroit. The Lions are a flawed team, but Goff keeps slinging it. They'll need him to continue doing so to finish their playoff push.
• Justin Herbert was an absolute hero in Week 15, overcoming a relentless Chiefs pass rush to move the Chargers offense enough to win a low-scoring affair. His touchdown pass just before halftime was outrageously impressive, an example of how special he can be even when circumstances around him make things mighty difficult.
• Trevor Lawrence is balling out of control right now, coming off a six-touchdown day against the Jets. He looks the best he has in his entire NFL career, dicing defenses with precise passing and timely running. He and Liam Coen have found a secret sauce that makes Jacksonville a sneaky title contender.
• Jordan Love produced a remarkably impressive first half in Denver, showing off the arm and improvisational skills that have made evaluators salivate over his potential. However, his inability to overcome the Broncos' defense in the second half is concerning for a Packers team that will need to find a new way to win after losing Micah Parsons to a season-ending injury.
• Go ahead, keep overlooking the 49ers and Brock Purdy. He'll just continue to fire accurate passes out of structure, scramble when necessary and even toy with a defender with a hilarious pump fake 20-plus yards downfield. Purdy looks healthy and is playing with renewed confidence that seems infectious in San Francisco.

TIER 3

• Aaron Rodgers followed up his best game as a Steeler with a joyous, quick-firing performance that buried the Dolphins, officially welcoming Marquez Valdes-Scantling to Pittsburgh and inspiring new hope for the team. He's cooking right now and should make opposing defenses lose some sleep in the coming weeks.
• Bo Nix had his best game of 2025 in Week 15. He led the Broncos back from a 23-14 third-quarter deficit by slinging the ball all over the yard and leaning on Courtland Sutton. His rapport with Troy Franklin continues to prove productive, and Nix even connected with Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Michael Bandy for scores. Nix is building plenty of momentum at the perfect time and beating the allegations of fraudulence with these Broncos as they prepare for what they hope is a deep playoff run.
• Patrick Mahomes' frustrating, exasperating 2025 season ended in awful fashion, with the QB suffering an ACL tear in the final minutes of a failed comeback attempt. Mahomes had a very rough finish to the year, posting a 0:4 TD-INT ratio in his final two games, and he looked exhausted in recent weeks. I wish him the best in his recovery.
• In one of the coldest games in Bears history, Caleb Williams carved up the Browns. He completed 17-of-28 passes for 242 yards and two touchdowns, including an absurd Montana-to-Clark-like connection with DJ Moore for a score.
• C.J. Stroud lit up the Cardinals for three TD passes, looking much more like the absurdly accurate passer he was two seasons ago and giving Texans fans reason to believe their defense-first team could make a deep postseason run.
• Lamar Jackson is inching closer toward returning to his usual form, displaying mobility that is finally a threat to defenses once again. The Ravens need help to make the playoffs, but Jackson looks much better now than he did a month ago.
• Jalen Hurts and the Eagles took full advantage of their perfectly timed get-right game against the Raiders, with Hurts throwing three TD passes. We'll see if that success carries over in the final three weeks.

TIER 4

• Baker Mayfield welcomed back his favorite security blanket in Mike Evans and immediately fed him with targets (12), seemingly erasing the last month of struggles with some key throws in big spots. However, Mayfield's worst mistake of the night contributed directly to the Bucs’ downfall. He was picked off by Dee Alford, opening the door to a Falcons comeback that was helped along when Mayfield missed Emeka Egbuka on a crucial second-down throw while clinging to a two-point lead in the final minutes. The Bucs' meltdown typified their season, a frustrating campaign that has yet to include a true bounce-back performance from Mayfield in the second half of the season.
• Joe Burrow didn't receive many favors from his pass-catchers early against the Ravens, but he committed a crushing mistake, releasing a floating pass into the hands of the Ravens’ Kyle Van Noy, who then handed the ball over to Alohi Gilman for a pick-six. Burrow seems to be in the middle of an existential football crisis right now, which is understandable given the challenges he's faced with the Bengals over the last few years.
• Kirk Cousins owns Todd Bowles’ defenses. He threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns in the comeback win over Tampa Bay, pushing his passing total past 1,100 yards in his last three games against the Buccaneers. Don't be surprised if his trade market heats up in the offseason.

TIER 5

• J.J. McCarthy has plenty of work ahead of him this offseason, but he’s built positive momentum with his last couple of outings. He's posted a 5:1 TD-INT ratio in his last two games, showing signs of progress while still struggling to establish a rapport with Justin Jefferson (although Jefferson had a TD catch wiped out by penalty in Week 15). It's much better than what we saw earlier this season.
• He's yet to put together four strong quarters in a game, but I continue to like what I'm seeing in glimpses from Tyler Shough. The rookie has proven he has a clutch gene over the last two weeks, powering the Saints to another comeback victory by dicing up Carolina's defense in crunch time. He nailed a key throw to Chris Olave in single coverage for a score late in the fourth quarter.
• The big story of Week 15 was the return of Philip Rivers, a desperate addition made by the Colts as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive. He read the Seahawks’ defense effectively, got the ball out quickly and hit Alec Pierce on a crucial 16-yard completion to set up a late go-ahead field goal. Indianapolis came up short, but Rivers gave the team a chance to win in a very tough environment. What more could you ask for from a 44-year-old grandfather?
• I'll credit Dan Quinn for making the prudent decision to sit Jayden Daniels for the rest of the season. Marcus Mariota is a plus backup who did just enough to help the Commanders take down the Giants in a battle that shook up the 2026 NFL Draft order.

TIER 6

• Have we seen the last of Tua Tagovailoa in a Dolphins uniform? After appearing incapable of making a play throughout most of Miami's lopsided loss to Pittsburgh on a frigid Monday night, Mike McDaniel benched Tagovailoa in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers this week. Moves like these generally indicate the end is near for a quarterback, and after Tagovailoa's generally incompetent showing (save for garbage time) against the Steelers, it shouldn’t surprise anyone.
• Brady Cook made his starting debut for the Jets in Week 15. He led an encouraging eight-play, 65-yard drive that ended in a touchdown pass to Adonai Mitchell, but he self-destructed from there, throwing three interceptions in a blowout loss.
• Shedeur Sanders delivered a familiar collection of forgettable snaps and memorable throws (including two deep shots to rookie Isaiah Bond) against the Bears. He missed a few throws and had a teammate (Jerry Jeudy) fail him when Jeudy dropped Sanders' pinpoint accurate pass in the end zone, resulting in one of three interceptions. He's still holding onto the ball for too long.
• The Raiders are an abysmal operation trudging toward January. That's never a good situation for a backup QB to step into, but that's where Kenny Pickett found himself in Week 15. He threw for a paltry 64 yards against the Eagles and telegraphed an interception that could have been seen coming from space.