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Five months, 284 games, tens of thousands of plays … and the path to Super Bowl LX has been paved. On February 8th, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will meet on the NFL’s biggest stage (again), this time at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. And as always, to better understand and decipher the storylines of the game, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most on the field.
Since there’s only one game left — and since it’s jam-packed with intriguing matchups — we’ll be casting a wider net this week. Here are five crucial insights that could end up deciding Super Bowl LX.
Different explosive play rubrics against similar shutdown defenses
Over the last 10 weeks of football, the Patriots defense has allowed an explosive play on just 9.6% of snaps and the Seahawks defense is nearly as good at just 10.0% … good for first and second in the entire league over that span. In the playoffs, New England is down to an absurd 4.8% (with a bit of help from the Denver weather), while Seattle climbed to 16.1% after allowing a season-high 15 explosive plays to the Rams in the NFC Championship.
Meanwhile, the Patriots offense ranks fourth in explosive play rate on the year (15.2%), while the Seahawks rank eighth (14.4%). They are NFL Pro’s number one and number three offenses, respectively, in deep passing efficiency, and they’ve each had exactly 19 rushes of 20+ yards this year, tied for second in the league, including the postseason.
But how do these highly efficient offenses find explosive plays against such smothering defenses? Ultimately, it might come down to the players.
Seattle has Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was unstoppable in the NFC Championship and whose explosive play per route rate of 9.1%, including playoffs, led all wide receivers with 100+ routes this year. They also have Kenneth Walker III, who looked fresh and effective in the NFC Championship and sports a 14.9% explosive run rate, including the playoffs, second-highest by any player with 150+ carries. Limiting those two will be extremely difficult but extremely critical for New England.
On the flip side, the Patriots rely on a veritable village. They’ve had six players record at least 10 explosive receptions this year, including playoffs, most of any team. But they don’t have a single player with 25+ explosive receptions — something more than half the league can claim. And, incredibly, Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and Drake Maye all have exactly 19 explosive runs this year, including the playoffs — the only such trio in the league — but they’re one of just nine teams to have zero players crack 20 explosive runs.
The group that wins the big play battle — Seattle’s studs against Vrabel’s boys or New England’s motley crew against “The Dark Side” — could very well determine who lifts the Lombardi.
Drake Maye’s not-so-secret weapon: The quarterback scramble
Through the course of the regular season, no quarterback scrambled more often than Drake Maye (63 attempts) and through three postseason games, the young QB has unleashed that weapon with crippling effect. He has scrambled nine times over three games for 125 yards (13.9 per carry). The only QB to scramble for more yards in any postseason in the Next Gen Stats era is Patrick Mahomes, who logged 143 in 2019 and 128 in 2023 — both Super Bowl title runs. Maye has picked up six first downs on scrambles during these playoffs, including three first downs over expectation. In total, he has averaged 47 rushing yards per game during the postseason, more than any QB posted during the regular season and 20.5 YPG more than his own mark of 26.5. And he’s joined Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Colin Kaepernick as the only quarterbacks to log multiple games with 65+ rushing yards in a single postseason in the Super Bowl era.
Now, Maye will take on a Seahawks defense that ranks first in NFL Pro’s overall defensive rushing efficiency, but just 14th against QB scrambles. During the regular season, Seattle faced 40 QB scrambles — fifth-most in the league — due in large part to their high rate of QB pressure and their effective coverage. And while they allowed the fewest yards per carry to non-running backs in the entire NFL (3.53), they surrendered the fifth-most to quarterbacks (5.03). In the postseason, they allowed 37 yards to Brock Purdy (his second-most all season) and even 16 yards to Matthew Stafford (his most all season). If they force Maye to run, they’ll need to keep him contained, and Maye should be on the lookout for lanes early and often against this defense.
Sam Darnold’s postseason level-up against QB pressure
Over the course of the regular season, quarterback pressure was something of an Achilles heel for Sam Darnold. He sported a 69.4 passer rating under pressure, with just six touchdowns and six interceptions and a mark of -0.58 EPA per dropback that ranked sixth-worst among all qualified passers — the five names below him were Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Ward and Mac Jones.
But things have changed in the postseason, particularly after Darnold posted his best single-game performance against pressure all year in the NFC Championship. In two playoff games, Darnold has already thrown an NGS-era postseason record four TDs against pressure, with zero interceptions, a 108.6 passer rating and an improvement of 0.49 EPA/dropback versus the regular season. His three touchdowns on 14 pressured dropbacks in the NFC title game were the most he’s thrown in a single contest in his entire career and tied for the most by any QB in any outing this season.
The key against the Rams was largely timing. Darnold threw all three TDs “in rhythm” — between 2.5 to 4.0 seconds time to throw — completing five of eight attempts in rhythm for 102 yards and a 145.8 passer rating. Incredibly, he joined Russell Wilson (in Week 2, 2020 with Seattle) and Drake Maye (in Week 6 this year) as the only QBs in the NGS era to throw 3+ touchdowns and 12+ yards per attempt in rhythm against pressure in a single game. As a result, Seattle has jumped from 21st in NFL Pro’s passing efficiency against pressure to 16th — a sizable shift this late in the year.
The big question will be whether Darnold can maintain this improvement against a much stingier defense. Entering the Divisional Round, the 49ers ranked 24th in NFL Pro’s defensive efficiency with pressure. Entering the NFC Championship, the Rams ranked 16th. Even despite Darnold’s previous struggles in this category, those matchups translated to a one-star ‘Hawks advantage and a “no advantage” wash, respectively. Mike Vrabel’s Patriots unit ranks fifth in that metric and consequently holds a three-star NFL Pro advantage over Seattle entering the Super Bowl. Including the playoffs, New England has allowed just four TDs (with four INTs) with pressure, as well as just 5.2 yards per attempt and a 59.0 passer rating. Darnold has a tall task ahead … but might have grown enough this year to accomplish it.
Thinking “in the box” with Kenneth Walker III and Rhamondre Stevenson
Over his last five games (since Week 16), Kenneth Walker III has been largely unstoppable, averaging 122 scrimmage yards per game, with 6.4 yards per touch, and scoring five touchdowns. Meanwhile, Rhamondre Stevenson has been nearly as good since Week 16, averaging 102 yards per game, with 6.8 yards per touch and six touchdowns in six games. Over that span, Stevenson’s 17 explosive scrimmage plays lead all running backs, while Walker’s 16 ranks second. And Walker has racked up an impressive 337 rushing yards after contact over those six weeks, while Stevenson has compiled 312 (second and third behind Derrick Henry).
However, things will get very tough for both backs against these two defenses in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks are NFL Pro’s most efficient overall run defense and the Patriots rank number three. Seattle is particularly scary, as they rank top eight in every NFL Pro rushing metric outside of QB scrambles (see above) and number one in four of those eight. Perhaps the most notable matchup on that side: Seattle is second in NFL Pro red-zone rushing efficiency and New England ranks 26th, granting the ‘Hawks the only NFL Pro five-star advantage across any category in this contest. And while the Patriots are number one rushing against stacked boxes, the Seahawks have used stacked boxes at the second-lowest rate in the entire NFL this season, including the playoffs (12.6%).
On the other side, the Pats’ strongest edge is outside the tackles, where they’re ranked eighth on defense and the Seahawks are ranked 30th on offense. Considering Walker has averaged a whopping 7.2 yards per carry inside the tackles since Week 16 (and “just” 4.5 yards per carry outside), expect to see Seattle work the middle of the line in the run game. Another interesting wrinkle: New England has used light boxes at the second-highest rate in the NFL (45.3%) and Seattle is ranked 23rd in NFL Pro efficiency against light boxes. Vrabel and Co. will likely use six or fewer defenders in the box at a particularly high rate in Super Bowl LX.
Top-tier speed threats in the return game: Rashid Shaheed and Marcus Jones
In Super Bowl history, there have been 10 kick-return touchdowns and, shockingly, zero punt-return touchdowns. The last return touchdown we saw on the game’s biggest stage was Percy Harvin's 87-yarder for the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII after the 2013 season.
But as far as return prospects go, it doesn’t get much better than Patriots CB Marcus Jones and Seattle WR Rashid Shaheed. Literally. Jones scored four punt-return touchdowns this season including the playoffs (tied for the most ever) and Shaheed scored three kick-return touchdowns, including the 95-yarder on the first play of the Divisional Round game against San Francisco. No other player had more than two return TDs all year.
From a speed standpoint, Jones logged the third-most punt returns of 15+ miles per hour including the playoffs (11) and cracked a max speed of 20+ miles per hour twice (both touchdowns). Similarly, Shaheed cracked 20+ miles per hour twice as well (including his 100-yard touchdown in Week 14) and his average top speed on kick returns (17.5 mph) was third-highest among players with at least 15 returns. Super Bowls — especially close ones — often come down to special teams and game-breaking plays, and these two returners are among the most dangerous game-breakers in the league.