Three things are certain in this life: death, taxes, and Fernando Mendoza is going to be a Las Vegas Raider. Of course, the latter isn’t technically certain, but for all intents and purposes, it’s expected to happen. Per NFL IQ, 80% of mock drafts have Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Raiders on April 23. Assuming that is the case, how will the Heisman Trophy winner and national champion fit into the soon-to-be reimagined Vegas offense? Under new head coach Klint Kubiak, the Raiders aim to be a different team than the 3-14 squad we saw last year. Can Mendoza help the Raiders get there? Let’s look at how the Indiana product will fit into a Kubiak-style offense, using NFL Pro.
NFL Pro offers its users access to All-22 game film, Next Gen Stats insights, fantasy data, and more. Sign up for NFL+ Premium for access to all of this plus NFL Network, RedZone, premium content, and game replays.
The Kubiak system
Kubiak has gained league-wide recognition as one of the top offensive play-callers in the NFL. He is known for his balanced attack that utilizes play-action, motion and zone running to attack defenses. Under Kubiak, Seattle’s offense deployed one of the most successful play-action offenses in the league in 2025 with a 57.3% success rate (3rd), 14 touchdowns (2nd) and 0.37 expected points added (EPA) per dropback (1st) on such plays, per NFL Pro. Sam Darnold had a total of 1,560 play-action passing yards (2nd) on just 88 completions and an average of 11.3 air yards per attempt (1st). Kubiak used the play-action pass just 14.1% of the time (22nd), but when he did, it worked extremely well.
The other half of his system relies heavily on the running game to balance out his offense, with a scheme that is predicated on outside zone runs that are created by horizontal shifting from the offensive line, thus stretching defenses horizontally. Per NFL Pro, Seattle boasted a 48.7% called-run rate (1st), 62.8% run-action rate (2nd) and ran outside the tackles 57% of the time (5th) last season. This is Kubiak’s bread and butter. He also predominantly uses under-center snaps to mask his offensive intentions, as seen by his 52.6% under-center rate in 2025, which ranked second in the league, per NFL Pro. This allows his quarterback to manufacture rollouts and bootlegs, once again, stretching defenses horizontally. With the head coach expected to assume play-calling duties in Vegas, we can expect to see a lot of these same schemes next season.
Fernando Mendoza: The next Kubiak success story?
Mendoza is an ultra-processor with elite accuracy and precision, physical toughness, and incredible control on his downfield throws. Understanding this, he will work best in an offense that has a fair amount of structure as opposed to one that relies on off-script playmaking like the Chiefs or the Bills. Kubiak’s offense will ask Mendoza to be decisive and quick in play-action scenarios, which Mendoza showed glimpses of in college, but has some improvements to make on his timing.
Can he increase his mobility? While Mendoza isn’t a dynamic running threat, he’s athletic enough to execute the sorts of designs that Kubiak consistently draws up – bootlegs, rollouts, fakes, etc. Kubiak has worked with several solid pocket passers in his career — Darnold being his most recent prodigy — so the idea of getting a quarterback like Mendoza to be confident on the move should not be an issue.
Where the fit becomes especially interesting is in Kubiak’s usage of the run game to dictate coverage. Heavy use of outside zone forces linebackers to move, which opens windows up behind them. For Mendoza, that means clearer throwing lanes and more defined reads which is where and when he will have the opportunity to really shine at the NFL level as it plays directly to his strengths. If he can consistently diagnose these situations pre- and post-snap, he can be very successful as a Raider.
In general, Mendoza projects as a natural schematic fit in Kubiak’s offense: a rhythm passer who can execute play-action, operate on the move, and take advantage of defined reads. Mendoza’s success will likely hinge less on elevating the system and more on how cleanly and consistently he can run it — which, in this style of offense, is often exactly what’s required. There are certainly adjustments that will have to be made — transitioning from his reliance on RPO, improving quickness of his decision-making, and learning how to run an offense under center as opposed to shotgun, immediately come to mind. But those aren’t anomalies for college players transitioning to the NFL.
Kubiak is one of many modern-day coaches who set the standard for efficient play-calling, and it shows in the ways that players respond to his coaching. Last season, he helped unlock the full potential of Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which earned the latter the Offensive Player of The Year award and a market-resetting contract extension. Also, under Kubiak’s guidance, running back Kenneth Walker III had an explosive year and won Super Bowl MVP, which earned him a three-year contract with the Chiefs. Everything Kubiak touches seems to turn to gold, but how will that play out with the Silver and Black? We’ll see in September.