Seven weeks in the books, 10 more to go! We’re on to Week 8 … and it’s packed with storylines. To better understand and decipher those storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of those storylines, with all the relevant NFL Pro insights and the fantasy fallout we can expect this weekend.
Justin Herbert, Chargers O-line vs. Minnesota’s defense
The Chargers are coming off a loss to the Colts, without Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt or Trey Pipkins, in which they surrendered the most pressures by any team in any game since 2019 (35). It has been an unmitigated disaster up front for Los Angeles, whose 43.6% pressure rate allowed on the season is second-highest behind only the Jets. This hasn’t been helped by Justin Herbert's 2.91-second average time to throw, sixth-longest among qualified QBs this season, or the fact that he takes longer than four seconds — an “extended dropback” — at the fifth-highest rate in the league. The good news: both Alt and Pipkins have a chance to play on Thursday night (though both are going to be game-day decisions).
The bad news: Their opponent on TNF is the Minnesota Vikings. Brian Flores’ defense has pressured the quarterback at the seventh-highest rate in the league this year and rank top five in NFL Pro's pass defense efficiency overall and against short passes, intermediate passes, quick passes, passes versus the blitz, passes versus no blitz and the list goes on. The one are they’ve been susceptible is the deep ball, where they actually rank 31st in NFL Pro efficiency, but Herbert has thrown deep on just 9.6% of his passes in 2025, his lowest mark over the last three seasons. If he and the Chargers want to succeed, they’re likely going to need to get the ball out quick and/or strike deep downfield. And they’ll likely need to do it with their outside wide receivers, to whom Minnesota has allowed a 122.6 passer rating when targeted this year, second-highest in the league.
Fantasy Fallout: Justin Herbert is likely to be under duress early and often in this game, but he did just post 29.9 fantasy points against the Colts while being pressured at a record-setting pace. He’s a fringe starter against a tougher overall defense, while Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston are all startable WR2s.
Panthers' RB duo vs. Bills' beatable run D
After Rico Dowdle set the field on fire in two games without Chuba Hubbard, Hubbard’s return in Week 7 resulted in a split (but still productive) backfield. Dowdle handled 18 touches for 96 total yards and Hubbard took 16 touches for 55 yards. No team has more rushing yards than Carolina over the last three weeks (580), and only the Commanders have more on the entire season. And it’s not just a volume thing: the Panthers rank second in NFL Pro’s rush offense efficiency on designed runs and sixth in overall rush efficiency.
That might be bad news for a Bills defense that ranks 25th in overall rush defense efficiency. No defense is losing more EPA/carry (-0.14) and allowing a higher success rate on runs (38.6%) than the Bills this season. Their 25.9% missed tackle rate on rushes is third-highest in the league and their 14.3% explosive run rate allowed is just behind the Browns for the highest. That’s particularly problematic against Dowdle, whose 14 explosive runs trail only Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift and J.K. Dobbins on the season. With Andy Dalton expected to start at quarterback for the Panthers -- due to Bryce Young's ankle injury -- it figures that Carolina will lean heavily on the run game in an effort to slow the game down and keep Josh Allen and Co. off the field. With their effectiveness and explosiveness, and Buffalo’s susceptibility to the run, that might work better than expected in a matchup the Bills are heavily favored to win.
Fantasy Fallout: Rico Dowdle is essentially a must-start fantasy RB in this matchup -- especially during Byepocalypse -- and Hubbard can also be used in your flex spot in a pinch. The ceiling for both is reduced by the presence of the other, but the floor for both is decently high against Buffalo’s defense.
Dak Prescott and Co. challenging Denver secondary downfield
In just about every relevant metric, Dak Prescott has been a top five quarterback so far this season. He’s fourth in completion rate (71.4%), third in passing yards per game (268.7), second in touchdown passes (16) and fifth in EPA/dropback (0.21). He’s also been particularly good downfield (10+ air yards), with 984 passing yards, six TDs, one INT and a 120.4 passer rating on such passes. The only other QB with 70+ downfield attempts to have a higher completion percentage over expected than Prescott (+11.8%) is Drake Maye (+16.2%). Prescott has connected with George Pickens for 17 completions and 391 yards on downfield throws (both near the top of the league) but has been largely without CeeDee Lamb this season. Still, he’s hit Lamb for eight catches, 236 yards and one TD on downfield throws in their three games together.
Now, Week 8 brings a clash between Prescott (and his downfield duo) and a ravenous Denver secondary led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos have allowed the lowest completion rate (55.9%) and the lowest success rate on passes (35.1%) in the league this year. They’ve also specifically allowed the fewest fantasy points per target to wide receivers (1.22). And when looking downfield in particular, Denver’s surrendered just a 31.5% completion rate and 7.5 yards per attempt -- both lowest in the league. This is a matchup of great against great and will be an excellent test for both units.
Fantasy Fallout: You’re not sitting Prescott, Lamb or Pickens -- ever -- but this will definitely be their hardest test of the year. Adjust expectations accordingly and cross your fingers that their “best” will be enough to better Denver’s “best.”
Patrick Mahomes to continue building MVP case vs. Commanders
After a strange start to the season in which Patrick Mahomes dominated as a rusher but only produced middling numbers as a passer, the former MVP has averaged 282.8 passing yards per game and thrown 11 touchdowns with just one interception over the last month. Over that span, he’s faced four defenses that rank in the bottom-12 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, with the Ravens and Raiders struggling in efficiency and the Lions and Jaguars facing heavy volume this season. As a result, he’s averaged an absurd 27.94 fantasy points per game these past four weeks, and is firmly entrenched as the highest-scoring QB in fantasy this season.
The soft matchups don’t slow in Week 8, as Mahomes draws the Commanders at home on Monday Night Football. Washington ranks 24th in NFL Pro’s overall pass defense efficiency and particularly struggles when it can’t get pressure (29th). Considering the Chiefs have surrendered the lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season, it’s unlikely Washington can rely on that tool to rattle Mahomes. That means he’ll have time to pick apart a secondary allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, with his top receiver in Rashee Rice now back in the fold. Rice thrives in the short and intermediate areas, where Washington has surrendered 98 receptions, 870 yards, eight touchdowns and 1.64 fantasy points per target (fifth-most in the NFL).
Fantasy Fallout: Mahomes is the top QB in fantasy this week (and most weeks) and Rice is a legitimate top-five option alongside guys like Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb. The rest of the Chiefs offense is hard to trust, with a number of interchangeable pieces, but you can expect the elite duo to dominate on Monday night.