Fourteen weeks in the books, three more to go — and it’s the fantasy playoffs! We’re into the quarterfinals, and they’re full of exciting storylines! To better understand and decipher these storylines, NFL Pro has a wealth of data and insights, carefully curated to highlight what matters most in each game. And in the world of fantasy football, we need every advantage we can get.
Here are four of the biggest insights to know, with all the relevant NFL Pro context and the fantasy fallout we can expect!
Derrick Henry … in December … against the Bengals “defense”
Half of the six biggest fantasy games in Derrick Henry's career have come in December, including his 47.8-point career high in Week 14, 2018 against the Jaguars. He’s coming off six straight games with 85+ scrimmage yards and has scored four TDs in the last four weeks. Following the Ravens’ Week 7 bye, Henry has racked up 493 rushing yards after contact, third-most in the NFL behind only Jonathan Taylor and De'Von Achane. Over that same span, he’s forced 13 missed tackles on runs (tied for fourth-most) and gained 108 yards after forcing a missed tackle, second-most only to JT. Largely as a result, the Ravens are currently ranked fourth in NFL Pro’s overall rushing efficiency entering a matchup with Cincinnati … who are ranked 31st in rushing defense.
To put it bluntly, the Bengals have been awful against the run this year. They’re bottom five in rushing yards over expected per carry (0.7) and rushing success rate (44.9%), and they’ve surrendered 30.86 fantasy points per game to running backs, (un)comfortably the most in the league. Henry tagged them for 104 scrimmage yards and a touchdown two weeks ago on Thanksgiving, and it could be argued that Baltimore’s offense is getting better by the week as Lamar Jackson gets healthy. Plus, it’s going to be sub-freezing at Paycor Stadium on Sunday, making Henry that much less desirable a tackle for Cincy’s defenders.
Fantasy Fallout: If it wasn’t already clear, Henry is a top fantasy option for Week 15, with a great chance to post his best game of the year on Sunday. He should be starring in your home league lineup and forming the centerpiece of DFS rosters for those of you who didn’t make the dance.
Drake Maye’s best bet against the Bills is deep downfield
Drake Maye is in a tight race with Matthew Stafford for the MVP award, and the Patriots are in an equally tight race for the number one seed in the AFC. Without a doubt, this week’s meeting with the Bills is the biggest game on the schedule for both races, and the Bills defense is tough enough to cause problems for the second-year QB. They’re currently ranked fourth in NFL Pro’s overall defensive passing efficiency and are specifically first against quick passes and top five against short passes and passes without pressure in 2025. When these two teams met in Week 5, Maye completed 22 of 30 attempts for 273 yards but did not manage to throw a touchdown and finished with his fewest fantasy points this year (12.12).
If Maye wants to pull off a season-defining, possibly award-winning performance — and ideally catapult your fantasy team to the semifinals — he might want to look deep. He completed all three deep passes against Buffalo in the first meeting (for 78 yards), and the Bills are currently ranked 23rd in NFL Pro’s defensive efficiency against the deep ball — while the Patriots are number one on offense. Buffalo’s defense just surrendered three completions for 83 yards and two touchdowns to Joe Burrow last Sunday, and it’s clear New England will need to score early, often and quickly to keep up with Josh Allen (who’s also making a run at the MVP). All signs are pointing downfield for Maye and his receivers this week — which makes Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas interesting sleeper plays as well.
Fantasy Fallout: Maye was a “dud” in Week 5 thanks to poor touchdown luck, but he’s a must-start play this week with a great chance at beating the Bills where they’re most beatable. Also, don’t be surprised if Boutte has a re-breakout game of sorts, with a deep touchdown solidifying a start-worthy fantasy day.
Green Bay’s No. 1 passing offense against Pat Surtain II and the Broncos secondary
It might come as a bit of a surprise, but the Packers currently have NFL Pro’s most efficient passing offense, and are specifically number one on quick passes, passing against the blitz and passing without pressure as well. Jordan Love is coming off back-to-back games with exactly 234 yards and at least three touchdowns passing … but those games came against the softer secondaries of the Lions and Bears (oh my). This week, he heads into Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Broncos, who are anything but soft. Denver is NFL Pro’s fourth-ranked passing defense and have been a terror for fantasy quarterbacks. Only four QBs have topped 16 fantasy points against this unit all year, and two of those four did so with a rushing touchdown. Meanwhile, they held Patrick Mahomes to 14.34 points, Dak Prescott to 8.62 and a flurry of lesser quarterbacks to single digits as well.
So, who’s going to win the battle of high-efficiency units? Unfortunately, the data would say it won’t be Love. He’s played just three games this season against units currently ranked in the top 12 in NFL Pro’s defensive passing efficiency — the Browns, Eagles and Vikings — and he struggled mightily in all three. Across those contests, he’s averaged just 9.0 fantasy points per game, with one passing touchdown (and one interception) in total. His 7.84 fantasy points against Philly and 7.06 against Minnesota remain the two worst games of his year, by far. Even with a deep completion or two to Christian Watson, Love is going to struggle for most of Sunday’s action.
Fantasy Fallout: Do not start Love against Denver. Under almost any circumstances (outside of 2QB leagues). Find a streaming option and get away from Green Bay’s air attack wherever possible — the only Packers wideout I'd consider starting would be Watson, and only as a boom-bust flex play.
Great on great: The Lions running back duo in the red zone vs. the Rams
Only one team’s running backs have combined for 20+ scrimmage touchdowns this season — it’s the Detroit Lions, and they have 23. Their 16 RB scrimmage scores specifically from inside the red zone are also most in the league (tied with the 49ers). Jahmyr Gibbs trails only Jonathan Taylor (18) with his 16 individual touchdowns and David Montgomery has cobbled together seven of his own. Largely as a result, they are currently NFL Pro’s sixth-most efficient rushing offense and lead the NFL in scoring with 30.3 points per game. All that said, even with two games against the Packers on their resume, Sonic and Knuckles may not have faced a test as tough as the Rams yet this season.
Los Angeles ranks fourth in NFL Pro’s overall defensive rushing efficiency and specifically ranks second in the red zone — as well as third with light boxes and fifth on rushes outside the tackles. No team has allowed fewer rushing touchdowns (two) or scrimmage touchdowns (four) to running backs than the Rams. And while his 10 receptions against Green Bay in the first meeting might skew his PPR fantasy points, Gibbs did struggle in those games, totaling just 136 scrimmage yards with zero touchdowns. (Montgomery managed a TD in Week 13 but totaled just 91 yards across both meetings.) The extremely high projected point total for this game indicates that plenty of touchdowns will be scored, but the matchup would suggest they may not come from the Lions RB duo.
Fantasy Fallout: You’re never sitting Gibbs, or even considering it, but you might want to hesitate in DFS lineups. More importantly, Montgomery is a major question mark and should probably be avoided, even as a flex play, except in the deepest of leagues.