Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. In today's installment, he spotlights 14 players who could tilt the balance in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy ...
The NFL's postseason tournament is about to kick off with Wild Card Weekend -- and decision-makers around the league will be counting on their blue-chip players to produce the kinds of game-changing plays that can push a team to the next round.
But we're not here to talk about stars. We're here to zero in on one unheralded or relatively underappreciated player on each team who could emerge as a difference-maker.
After carefully assessing each playoff roster, I've identified one X-factor per contender who will determine whether his team makes an extended postseason run, with the AFC field listed first below, followed by the NFC:
AFC X-factors
- NEXT GAME: Divisional Round, opponent TBD
It can be tough for any cornerback to handle the pressure that comes with playing opposite a reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Moss has been relentlessly targeted by opposing quarterbacks who are looking to avoid throwing at Patrick Surtain II; in fact, Moss led the NFL in targets, with 116, per Next Gen Stats. And yet, other than struggling some with penalties, the Broncos' CB2 has held his own in matchups against marquee pass catchers, posting the league's fourth-lowest passer rating allowed (83.7) among players who were targeted 90-plus times. Denver's playoff journey promises to feature showdowns with elite quarterbacks throughout -- meaning Moss' ability to weather the storm on the perimeter could determine how far the Broncos advance in the tournament.
- NEXT GAME: vs. Chargers, Sunday at 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC, Peacock, NFL+
The rookie running back has sparked the offense with big-play ability from the backfield. As a runner and receiver, Henderson can score from anywhere on the field on downhill runs or swings and screens in the passing game. Most importantly, he adds balance to an offense that otherwise relies heavily on Drake Maye to perform at an MVP level. We can expect opponents to utilize soft coverage tactics in an attempt to neutralize the Patriots' QB1 and his top receiver (Stefon Diggs) -- opening the door for Henderson to step into the spotlight as the offense's top playmaker in the postseason.
- NEXT GAME: vs. Bills, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET | CBS, NFL+
Little has expanded the scoring zone for the Jaguars with his ability to nail kicks from 60-plus yards out. His overall consistency (88.2% conversion rate on field-goal tries in the regular season) and range (he nailed eight of his 10 kicks from 50-plus yards out) give head coach Liam Coen plenty of options in late-game situations. Little can also be counted upon to keep the offense afloat if Trevor Lawrence and Co. struggle at any point as the postseason stage tightens up.
- NEXT GAME: vs. Texans, Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC, ESPN, NFL+
Aaron Rodgers might have cracked the code for the Steelers' offense by getting the ball to Gainwell early and often as a runner and receiver. The versatile playmaker amassed 1,000-plus scrimmage yards, with the team going 5-1 in the six games where he topped 70 scrimmage yards, five of which came in Week 11 or later. Opponents will put plenty of effort into slowing down DK Metcalf on the perimeter, potentially giving Gainwell a chance to emerge as the offense's unsung postseason hero.
- NEXT GAME: at Steelers, Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC, ESPN, NFL+
The heart and soul of the Texans' top-ranked defense, Al-Shaair sets the tone with his ultra-aggressive playing style and nasty disposition, leading to more urgency and physicality from his teammates. As a swift sideline-to-sideline defender with outstanding instincts and awareness, he patrols the middle of the field like a junkyard dog walking the fence line. The veteran is also assigned to play the "spy" against mobile quarterbacks on key downs, meaning the Texans' inside linebacker is the defensive playmaker to watch throughout the playoffs.
- NEXT GAME: at Jaguars, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET | CBS, NFL+
The Bills racked up 12 wins without a No. 1 receiver, but opponents should not overlook Kincaid's contributions as a pass catcher over the middle. The former first-rounder led Buffalo receivers and tight ends in explosive plays (13 catches of at least 20 yards) and touchdowns (five) despite missing five regular-season games. Kincaid is Josh Allen's favorite big-play target, and opponents must pay close attention to his whereabouts -- otherwise, they risk watching him produce a game-changing play in a pivotal moment.
- NEXT GAME: at Patriots, Sunday at 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC, Peacock, NFL+
This hybrid safety/nickel cornerback is a critical piece to the Chargers' defensive puzzle, with his ability to blanket tight ends or slot receivers from various alignments. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter crafts game plans designed to take out the middle of the field, and Molden's versatility enables the whiteboard wizard to deploy Derwin James near the line of scrimmage to wreak havoc as a pass rusher and box-area defender. Knowing the Bolts' game plan hinges on the positional flexibility of their safeties, it's clear the unheralded sub-package defender could play a major role in whatever success the unit has throughout the postseason.
NFC X-factors
- NEXT GAME: Divisional Round, opponent TBD
OK, admittedly, it's hard to label any quarterback an X-factor, considering the position's outsized importance in the modern NFL. But I think the shoe fits with this particular signal-caller on this particular team, given the trepidation that continues to linger around his name and game. Yes, Darnold did a lot to debunk the narrative that he crumbles under the spotlight, winning his fourth and fifth straight prime-time contests against the Rams in Week 16 and the 49ers in Week 18 to secure the NFC's top seed. But he also did commit a fumble or interception in each of those five games, consistent with his season-long difficulty in that area -- he finished the season with 20 total turnovers, including 14 picks. Darnold was still able to torch opponents in the regular season, but if the Seahawks are to advance through the playoffs, he must come through in the clutch and avoid turnovers. Darnold's decision-making and ball-security skills will determine whether the NFC's No. 1 seed will represent the conference in Super Bowl LX.
- NEXT GAME: vs. Packers, Saturday at 8 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+
The NFL's picks leader (he finished the regular season with seven) is a key playmaker on this turnover-obsessed Bears defense. Byard's instincts, ball skills and range routinely lead to interceptions on tipped or overthrown passes. The veteran's superb diagnostic skills and pre-snap disguise tactics should give quarterbacks pause before throwing down the middle of the field. Chicago led the league in takeaways -- and Byard's knack for sniping the ball could be the difference in a one-score playoff game.
- NEXT GAME: vs. 49ers, Sunday at 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX, NFL+
Jalen Carter will command significant attention from opponents, but few teams can handle the Pro Bowler and his big-bodied teammate at the point of attack. If Davis ends up facing one-on-one blocking, he could dominate as a game-wrecker at the point of attack, filling dual roles as a run stopper and pass rusher. The Eagles will likely rely on their defense (ranked fifth overall) to lead their title chase, and the 336-pound Davis could emerge as the difference-maker on a unit that throttles opponents at the line of scrimmage.
- NEXT GAME: vs. Rams, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX, NFL+
The Panthers have been at their best when the running game has operated at a high level, going 5-2 this season when they rushed or 125-plus yards as a team and 1-5 when they failed to clear 100. Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard have shared the workload effectively, and Carolina will stick with the hot hand in key moments. As a 1,000-yard rusher with three 100-yard games on the stat sheet, Dowdle has shown he can take over as the offense's No. 1 option. To knock off elite opponents like the Rams, the Panther must manage the game via a run-first approach backed by great team defense -- thus, the veteran RB will likely play a pivotal role in any playoff success Carolina has.
- NEXT GAME: at Panthers, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX, NFL+
The Rams' passing game revolves around Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, but Parkinson shined as a red-zone weapon down the stretch, thanks to mismatches created by the team's clever utilization of 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends and one wide receiver). The 6-foot-7, 266-pounder finished the regular season with eight touchdowns, including five over the last five games. Defensive coordinators will likely game-plan to limit explosives on the outside while adding extra defenders in the box to contain the run -- and Parkinson could then punish opponents who fail to account for his big-bodied presence between the hashes.
- NEXT GAME: at Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX, NFL+
The 49ers must run the ball successfully to control the game and protect their porous defense. While Christian McCaffrey can get the job done as the primary ball-carrier, Kyle Shanahan will need to utilize some creative formations and blocking schemes to create creases at the point of impact. Given the plan, Juszczyk could play a key role as a lead blocker, paving the way for CMC to get to the second level.
- NEXT GAME: at Bears, Saturday at 8 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+
Micah Parsons' season-ending Achilles tear in December robbed the Packers of their most disruptive pass rusher on the front line. Without the perennial Pro Bowler in the lineup, Gary will be expected to shoulder a heavier workload as the designated disruptor at the point of attack. His résumé features 46.5 sacks, seven forced fumbles and 111 quarterback hits over 106 career games -- but Green Bay will need the one-time Pro Bowler to supply more splash plays (sacks, tackles for loss and turnovers) to a unit that misses the impact Parsons provided before his injury.