Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 05:47 PM

NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 12 of 2025 season

Senior Director, Content & Editorial

Entering Week 12 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.

A few notes before we dig in:

All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 18 unless otherwise noted below.
Terms defined:
- If win: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.
- If lose: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.
- Playoff leverage: The difference between a team's probability of making the playoffs if it wins the upcoming game versus if it loses, essentially capturing the stakes of that game: a high playoff leverage indicates the game can significantly influence the team's playoff chances, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game will have a lesser impact.

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On the bubble
Still in the hunt
Division races

NFL playoff picture entering Week 12

What a massive win for the Broncos organization on Sunday. (Patting myself on the back for calling the upset in August ... while also smacking myself in the forehead for chickening out more recently.) In holding off the hard-charging Chiefs, Denver not only widened its lead in the AFC West (more on that below) but moved to No. 1 in the conference standings. ... For one week, at least. The Broncos still have just a one in four chance of retaining their lead, per the model, in part because they lost to the Colts (8-2) earlier this year, but also because they'll face far tougher opponents the rest of the way than New England (9-2) will. ...
Speaking of the Patriots ... they have a golden opportunity to improve to 6-0 on the road when they visit Cincinnati on Sunday -- the site of arguably the biggest upset of the 2024 season. A win this weekend would also leapfrog the Pats over the Broncos (who are on a bye) to the top of the table. Probably should've led with that.
Everything seems to be coming up New England these days. Not only do the Pats have a two-win advantage over the Bills in the AFC East, they also have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league (.371) and a clutch Week 14 bye. It's no wonder, then, that their playoff probability (97%) is the highest of any AFC team, or that they are the current frontrunners to earn home-field advantage throughout.
Unfortunately for the Colts, they're on the opposite end of the difficulty spectrum, with the fourth-hardest remaining slate. With tilts at Kansas City, Jacksonville and Seattle still to go, plus four games against the Texans and Jaguars, Indy's road to No. 1 has some potential potholes. That Week 2 win over Denver is looking increasingly important these days.
Pretty wild that the fifth-seeded Bills, for all of their foibles, have the third-best playoff probability in the conference, especially with trips to Pittsburgh and New England still to come, as well as a Week 17 home affair with the Eagles. Having head-to-head wins already locked in against two of the AFC's fringe teams -- Baltimore and Kansas City (and potentially Houston on Thursday) -- certainly helps their case if tie-breakers come into play.
NGS is gonna be modela non grata in the Steelers locker room after generating a 39% playoff probability for the AFC North leaders. As if that slight wasn't enough, the model also says that if the Steelers don't land the No. 4 seed (19%) by season's end, their next most likely playoff berth is as the third wild-card team. That's some next-gen disrespect. Although the Steelers have already beaten the Patriots and Colts this year, they have a grueling three-game stretch coming up: at Chicago, vs. Buffalo, at Baltimore. If they survive that gauntlet, seems like the computers (and some humans) might owe Mike Tomlin's crew an apology.
The Colts, Jaguars and Texans currently own three of the top eight spots in the conference hierarchy. That means there's a plausible future in which three AFC South teams earn postseason bids. Think about that for a second.
Very weird not to see the Chiefs in one of the top four slots above. Even weirder not to see them represented in the picture at all. Still, Kansas City's shadow looms large over the AFC playoff race. With home games against the Colts, Chargers and Broncos still on tap, the Chiefs figure to have an outsized influence on the final conference standings by season's end.

The Eagles keep rattling off wins despite questionable coaching decisions, ugly offensive performances and an extremely tough schedule. At some point, these close calls might catch up with Philly. For now, though, Nick Sirianni's team is sitting pretty atop the table.
Philadelphia has done a number on the NFC North over that past month or so -- beating the sixth-seeded Packers and the now-eighth-seeded Lions back to back, as well as the Vikings in Week 7. They'll have a chance to complete the division sweep when the Bears visit in two weeks.
I'm sorry, that should've read, "when THE NFC NORTH-LEADING CHICAGO BEARS visit in two weeks." Ben Johnson's club sat at the bottom of the division as recently as Week 6. But with four wins over a five-game span, including three in row by a combined 11 points(!), Chicago has jumped to the top of the North and into the No. 3 seed. That game I mentioned earlier, against the Eagles? That's not just for division bragging rights anymore. With a win, Chicago could find itself leading the entire conference. Of course, a few things would likely have to happen between now and then, like the Bears beating the fourth-seeded Steelers this weekend (in what the model projects as the most consequential game of the week) and the streaking Rams dropping at least one of their next two games. But the No. 1 seed is legitimately in play for Chicago entering Week 12. That's an incredible statement after the turmoil the team and its fan base experienced last season.
As fun as it was just now to daydream about a Bears first-round bye, their chances of even making the playoffs are still not much better than a coin flip (59%). Why? Well, for one, after lucking out with the easiest strength of schedule through the first 11 weeks of the campaign (.348), Chicago is now tied with Green Bay for the hardest final act (.592). That these two bitter rivals (and playoff hopefuls) are still scheduled to meet twice means the NFC race could get messy down the stretch.
One last pseudo Bears nugget (I promise!): At 2%, Chicago's odds to win the conference are closer to Carolina's (.05%) than they are to L.A.'s (42%). In fact, the Rams currently boast the highest probability to finish No. 1 overall, which is notable, considering the Eagles (41%) are already 7-1 in conference play (the Rams are 3-2) and own the H2H tie-breaker.
But the Rams still have several barriers between them and the 1 seed, beginning with a visit from the Bucs this weekend. Among the 10 teams with the toughest strengths of schedule to date, Tampa and L.A. are the only two that currently sport a winning record, which speaks to why both clubs have such strong playoff probabilities. (The Bucs also benefit from playing in the NFC South, of course.)
Bucs-Rams isn't the only Week 12 clash on tap between these two divisions, with the seventh-seeded Niners set to host the ninth-seeded Panthers on Monday night. As one of only two matchups this weekend (Steelers-Bears is the other) in which both teams' postseason leverage is at least 20 percentage points, this prime-time tilt could have major implications across multiple playoff races.

Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

The Chiefs, Ravens and Texans -- all 10-plus-win playoff teams from a year ago -- each sit at .500, with 15 losses between them. That's more L's than the trio totaled throughout the entire 2024 campaign. Parity!
With Sunday's loss in Denver, the Chiefs have now dropped back-to-back games twice in a season for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. They've been on the wrong end of all five of their one-score contests this year, too, after going 12 for 12 in 2024 (including playoffs). So, clearly, the 2025 Chiefs are not quite the version we've grown used to. But with a 50-50 playoff probability, I would think most folks would still lean toward the Mahomes side of that coin. Kansas City will welcome the Colts (more on that in a second), Texans, Chargers and Broncos to Arrowhead in the coming weeks, which means the Chiefs will have prime opportunities to make up ground in the standings. And though they've struggled away from K.C. this year (1-4, including in Brazil), their three remaining road games are against teams currently 7-22-1 combined.
As far as Week 12 goes, the Chiefs have to have Sunday's game versus Indy. They stand to forfeit 28.56 points in leverage with a loss, with their playoff percentage plummeting to worse than 1:3. That's a staggering number, and by far the biggest difference in playoff probability any team faces this week.
Despite losses to the Bills, Chiefs and Texans, the Ravens carry a notably better playoff probability into Week 12 than their other bubble onlookers. They can thank a relatively uncompetitive AFC North and the league schedule-makers for that. With two matchups against the Steelers still to play, Baltimore doesn't need any help to overtake Pittsburgh in the division. Of the 7,724 simulations in which Baltimore qualified for the postseason, just 373 were via a wild-card berth.

The Lions' crushing loss in Philadelphia on Sunday night wiped them from the playoff picture. But with a postseason probability of 74%, their absence could be temporary. Detroit's remaining slate is certainly not a cakewalk, but as I mentioned above, it's also way more palatable than what Chicago and Green Bay have ahead of them. The Lions will get another crack against both division rivals, who are still slated to go two rounds themselves. So there will be opportunities for Detroit to re-enter the frame.
Carolina faces the third-toughest remaining schedule in the league, with matchups against the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks on the horizon. However, they also have both games against the Bucs to go, which means, entering Week 12, the Panthers control their path into the playoffs. Having control and acting upon it are obviously two different things. By winning in San Francisco this weekend, the Panthers would oust the Niners from the top seven seeds. And if the Bucs also were to fall to the Rams, Carolina would find itself looking down on Tampa Bay in the standings. It's all there for the Panthers ... if they can seize it.

So you're saying there's a chance ...

(Teams with less than 10% probability to earn a playoff spot.)

The Dolphins' recent resurgence has helped them lose that pesky "less than" symbol next to the "1%" in the table above, but their road remains fraught, with trips to Pittsburgh and New England on the docket following the team's Week 12 bye. They do still have three home games, and I highlight those specifically because of this incredible fact: Since 2020, Miami is tied with Kansas City and Buffalo for the best home record (22-4) once the calendar hits November.
Neither I nor the model need to tell you that the Titans and Raiders are in deep, deep trouble, but in case you were wondering, neither team slipped into the AFC playoff field in any of the 10,000 simulations.
... Cleveland and New York, however, still have a glimmer of hope. The Browns clinched a berth in five simulations, appearing three times as the seventh seed and twice as the AFC North champs. The Jets, meanwhile, finished as the seventh seed in exactly 1 of the 10,000 run-throughs. So, yes, Jets fans, apparently there's a chance.

With seven weeks to play, the outlook is grim for these seven squads -- but none portends worse than New York's. The Giants were the only team in the NFC that didn't earn a playoff berth in any of the 10,000 simulations. And here's why: Their path is so narrow, it could disappear entirely by Sunday. Should they fall to the Lions, the Giants could find themselves officially eliminated from playoff contention within the hour.
The Vikings' most likely path into the dance is through a wild-card berth, where they appeared in 376 of the 10,000 simulations. But they punched their ticket as the No. 2 seed in two runs through the model, which is kind of fun ... in a sad way.
This might not be as surprising (or interesting) to anyone else, but I thought it was telling that four of the five lowest-ranked teams in the NFC started a different quarterback in Week 11 than they did in Week 1 -- with the 16th-ranked Giants already on to their QB3. Atlanta, the lone outlier among the bottom dwellers, was one week late to the party: Backup Kirk Cousins is set to start in place of an injured Michael Penix Jr. in New Orleans this weekend.

Who's most likely to win each division?

Mike Vrabel's immediate turnaround in New England has put Buffalo's decade of dominance in the division at serious risk. Although Buffalo can make up ground when the two teams collide in Foxborough in mid-December, New England will enter that showdown fresh off its bye week. In fact, not one of New England's other five opponents currently holds a winning record (albeit, the Pats do visit the Ravens in Week 16, and they're no ordinary .500 team).
It took me a second to figure out how the Jets weren't yet eliminated from contention, but there's exactly one scenario in which they can still take the AFC East: New York wins out, New England loses out and Buffalo finishes no better than 8-9 (with a win over the Pats in Week 15 and a loss to the Jets in Week 18). In this highly improbable scenario, both the Jets and Pats would finish at 9-8 overall, 3-3 in the division and 1-1 head to head, but the Jets would have the edge in conference record (7-5 vs. 5-7). Just a little fun fact to share with your friends.

Despite being a whole game back in the standings and out of the playoff picture entirely, the Ravens boast a 74% division win probability -- the fifth-highest percentage of any team in the league.
What about the AFC North-leading Steelers? Aaron Rodgers' wrist injury doesn't help their cause, and neither does their remaining schedule, which is among the toughest in the league. If you're thinking to yourself, the AFC North standings look strangely familiar, well, you're not wrong. Here's the division table from the same point last year ... right before the Steelers dropped five of their final seven to finish second to Baltimore:
- 1. Steelers (8-2)
- 2. Ravens (7-4)
- 3. Bengals (4-7)
- 4. Browns (2-8)

The AFC South crown has changed hands quite a bit over the past 10 seasons, with Houston winning six titles and Jacksonville and Tennessee taking two apiece. The Texans are the reigning champs twice over, but they've never won three in a row, and neither have the Jags or the Titans, for that matter. In fact, the only team to win the AFC South in three consecutive seasons: the Indianapolis Colts (2003-07).
I share that little tidbit to acknowledge that the Colts' fan base has waited a long time for the team's return to prominence. But they can't size up the banners yet, as the division probability numbers indicate. Although Indy has a firm lead entering Week 12, the team will be tested with the fourth-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL (.577). They'll have to endure two rounds with both the Jags and Texans over the final seven weeks, while also taking on the likes of Kansas City, Seattle and San Francisco. If the Colts emerge from this stretch as the No. 4 seed or better, they'll have more than earned their first division title since 2014.
With Sunday's loss to Houston, Tennessee became the first team eliminated from division contention in 2025.

You've got to go back to the 2016 season, when the Raiders began 8-2, to find the last time the Chiefs weren't leading the AFC West through 11 weeks. And still, by season's end, Kansas City had captured the division crown -- the first of nine consecutive titles. After Sunday's crushing loss in Denver, though, No. 10 seems downright improbable.
Even though the Chiefs' chances have dropped to single digits, they're not out of contention just yet, though playing spoiler (a rarity) down the stretch does seem far more likely. With home games against the Bolts and Broncos over the final seven weeks, it's possible Pat Mahomes & Co. upend Denver's bid for its first division title in a decade.
If you thought Kansas City's odds were slim, wait 'til you see everything that would need to happen for Vegas to finish on top:
- Raiders win out to finish 9-8.
- Broncos lose out to finish 9-8.
- Chargers win exactly one more game, against Denver in Week 18.
- Chiefs finish 9-8 or worse, with wins over the Chargers (Week 15) and Broncos (Week 17) and a loss to the Raiders (Week 18).

The Cowboys’ emotional win on Monday night kept the door open for a Dallas miracle, but make no mistake, the East remains the Eagles’ to lose. At 99%, Philly is by far the biggest favorite of all the current division leaders to hold on to its advantage through Week 18.
Now, if Dak Prescott & Co. can duplicate their performance from Monday night when they host Philly on Sunday, this race could get interesting. But even with that outcome, Dallas would have two more losses than the Eagles, with the Chiefs (on Thanksgiving) and the Lions up next. But I'm sure they'd welcome that updated implausible scenario versus their current one.
Giants fans clinging to their last shred of hope will be in the unpleasant position of rooting for Dallas this week, for an Eagles win (or a Giants loss) would officially eliminate New York from contention in the division.

I know I waxed on about Chicago earlier in this piece, but Detroit and Green Bay actually project to win the NFC North at a higher rate than their Windy City rivals. The Packers, who are already one up on the Lions this year, will play a whopping five division games over the final seven weeks of the season, so their high probability reflects their unique ability to dictate their direction. Although the Lions don’t have as much control as their next-door neighbors, they lead the season series with Chicago (1-0), with an opportunity to split with Green Bay in two weeks. Will this race be won? Will it be lost? Stress levels aren’t coming down anytime soon.
Minnesota, meanwhile, mainly has to hope its division mates beat up on each other and suffer through their respective slates. Although they’ll have two chances to gain ground on Green Bay (starting with Sunday’s trip to Lambeau) and have already won in Detroit, they need several outcomes to break their way over the next couple weeks to have a chance at meaningful football in December.

A second straight Bucs loss has narrowed the second-placed Panthers' deficit and kept the division's other two participants in the running entering Week 12. With two head-to-head matchups remaining between Tampa and Carolina, including Round 2 in the season finale, this race could go the distance. In the more immediate future, though, the South's top two teams have major tests up next with their friends out West.
The Saints are far more likely to be at the top of the draft board than the division when the season wraps. But, incredibly, they remain a contender for this year's crown. With four tilts to go in the NFC South, including at Tampa and versus Carolina, New Orleans has a few choice opportunities to narrow the gap (or, presumably, to play a little spoiler).

Seattle will have a few sleepless nights after coming up just short against the Rams last Sunday. The loss knocked the 'Hawks from the division perch and down to the NFC's fifth seed.
Despite all of the injuries, the 49ers continue to find a way. Sure, we can point to the level of competition they've faced thus far, but the schedule is the schedule. In taking care of business in Arizona on Sunday, San Francisco improved to 5-1 on the season against teams under .500. The victory also guaranteed them a winning record in the NFC West (4-1), which could certainly come into play down the line.
Although the Cardinals captured the division in exactly zero of the 10,000 simulations, they technically haven't been eliminated from real-life contention just yet. But they'd have to win at least six of their final seven, including both matchups with the Rams, for the remote possibility of an Arizona title to even sniff reality.

Senior Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade contributed to this story.