Back in August, Adam Rank and I decided to fight back against the algorithms attempting to upend football predictions as we know it. We bravely picked all 272 games of the 2025 NFL season, with the goal of proving once and for all that human analysis and gut instinct still have a place in our cold, data-driven world.
So far, it’s not going great.
Two of us set out on this dubious mission, and only one of us remains in the battle midway through the season. (Don’t worry, Rank is fine; he’s just too busy for silly exercises like this.) And I've had my fair share of whiffs through 10 weeks.
Then again, I dare you to show me a model that projected Indianapolis would sit atop the AFC midway through November while Baltimore and Kansas City lingered on the playoff bubble (don’t actually show me). And my hits (surprisingly) actually do outnumber my misses (56% accuracy), which seems like an overall win, considering the chaotic nature of this particular campaign. I was within one loss of 20 teams’ midseason records, and within two losses of 26. (Those other six teams? Let’s not worry about them ...)
In any case, considering elaborate models have the benefit of running thousands, if not millions, of simulations to spit out updated projections, it seemed only fair that I have a chance to revisit my picks, too -- at least the ones for the second half of the season.
So, once again, here’s a very fallible look at how every remaining game will play out, along with a review of my previous projections for each team in the NFC below. (To see projections for the AFC, click here.)
TEAM-BY TEAM SEASON PICKS
NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
NFC EAST
Cowboys' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 4-5
- Dallas' actual record: 3-5-1
- Games correct: 6 of 8 (ties don't count)
I was right about ... each of their three division games thus far. Also called the Cardinals' upset in Week 9, which I'll selfishly enjoy after issuing a misguided take on why the Cowboys were destined to win at Carolina.
I was wrong about ... See above.
Second-half double down
A true double down ... though, I really think the Cowboys might steal one from the Eagles in Week 12.
Final projection
- Record: 6-10-1 (previous projection: 7-10)
- Division finish: 2nd (previous: 3rd)
- Will the Cowboys make the playoffs? No.
Giants' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 3-7
- New York's actual record: 2-8
- Games correct: 7 of 10
I was right about ... Weeks 1-5, including the Giants' upset over the Chargers.
I was wrong about ... picking them to beat Denver in Week 7. That's a game we won't be forgetting anytime soon.
Second-half double down
Between the notable injuries and the sudden head-coaching change, it's difficult to predict how the G-Men will fare over the next several weeks. Hard to imagine they win more games than they lose, though.
Final projection
- Record: 3-14 (previous projection: 6-11)
- Division finish: 4th (previous: same)
- Will the Giants make the playoffs? No.
Eagles' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 8-1
- Philadelphia's actual record: 7-2
- Games correct: 6 of 9
I was right about ... Philly pacing the NFC through the first 10 weeks.
I was wrong about ... Week 2 at Kansas City. Shame on me for doubting the Eagles after what they did to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LXI.
Second-half double down
Keeping Weeks 11-17 the same. But with the Rams hot on their heels, the Eagles' Week 18 clash with the Commanders now features major stakes. A win would clinch Philly the No. 1 seed, so Nick Sirianni begrudgingly plays his starters in the season finale -- hence the pick flip.
Final projection
- Record: 14-3 (previous projection: 14-3)
- Division finish: 1st (previous: same)
- Will the Eagles make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 1 seed.
Commanders' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 4-6
- Washington's actual record: 3-7
- Games correct: 7 of 10
I was right about ... Washington falling back to Earth after a magical 2024 season.
I was wrong about ... Week 9 vs. Seattle. Big swing and a miss thinking the Commanders would take this one.
Second-half double down
The Commanders are unable to collect enough wins over the final eight weeks to compensate for their underwhelming first half of the season.
Final projection
- Record: 4-13 (previous projection: 8-9)
- Division finish: 3rd (previous: 2nd)
- Will the Commanders make the playoffs? No.
NFC NORTH
Bears' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 5-4
- Bears' actual record: 6-3
- Games correct: 6 of 9
I was right about ... the Bears being in the thick of the NFC playoff picture by mid-November.
I was wrong about ... Week 4 in Vegas. I waffled on that pick back in August before eventually siding with the Silver and Black. I'm still sick about it.
Second-half double down
Chicago sneaks into the playoffs for the first time since the 2020 season.
Final projection
- Record: 10-7 (previous projection: 8-9)
- Division finish: 2nd (previous: 3rd)
- Will the Bears make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 6 seed.
Lions' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 5-4
- Lions' actual record: 6-3
- Games correct: 6 of 9
I was right about ... losses to the Packers (Week 1) and Chiefs (Week 6).
I was wrong about ... Week 3 in Baltimore. Detroit ran ALL OVER the Ravens, exposing a defense that only recently has looked more like itself.
Second-half double down
Weeks 11-17 -- lock 'em in. Week 18 in Chicago ... that one has shifted back in Detroit's favor. The long-suffering Bears fan in me won't allow for a division-title prediction.
Final projection
- Record: 11-6 (previous projection: 9-8)
- Division finish: 1st (previous: 2nd)
- Will the Lions make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 3 seed.
Packers' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 7-2
- Green Bay's actual record: 5-3-1
- Games correct: 6-8 (ties don't count)
I was right about ... all five of their wins to date.
I was wrong about ... Green Bay being the second-best NFC team through 10 weeks. The Browns and Panthers helped see to that.
Second-half double down
Although I still have the Packers finishing the year 4-4, going .500 down the stretch is no longer sufficient to secure their place in the playoffs. The confounding losses to Cleveland and Carolina ultimately catch up with this uber-talented but underperforming squad.
Final projection
- Record: 9-7-1 (previous projection: 11-6)
- Division finish: 3rd (previous: 1st)
- Will the Packers make the playoffs? No.
Midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 4-5
- Minnesota's actual record: 4-5
- Games correct: 3 of 9
I was right about ... Minnesota’s mark through 10 weeks, though I might’ve been a tad bit off on how they’d arrive there.
I was wrong about ... them beating the Ravens at home. Turns out I was one week late on my Vikings upset pick.
Second-half double down
Minnesota ends the season on a three-game winning streak -- including playing spoiler in a win-and-in season finale for Green Bay -- but finishes firmly on the fringe of the playoff picture. As far as consolation prizes go, keeping the Packers out of the postseason is about as good as it gets for a rival NFC North team.
Final projection
- Record: 9-8 (previous projection: 8-9)
- Division finish: 4th (previous: same)
- Will the Vikings make the playoffs? No.
TEAM-BY TEAM SEASON PICKS
NFC SOUTH
Falcons' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 4-5
- Atlanta's actual record: 3-6
- Games correct: 2 of 9
I was right about ... the Falcons’ unpredictability this season. Atlanta was the only team I had winning seven or more games without ever posting back-to-back Ws. I haven’t accurately forecasted much about this team so far ... but that little prediction remains on track.
I was wrong about ... Weeks 1-5. Missed. Every. Single. Game.
Second-half double down
Atlanta doesn’t win consecutive games in 2025.
Final projection
- Record: 6-11 (previous projection: 8-9)
- Division finish: 3rd (previous: 2nd)
- Will the Falcons make the playoffs? No.
Panthers' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 3-7
- Carolina's actual record: 5-5
- Games correct: 6 of 10
I was right about ... Carolina turning in several competitive performances -- including a *close one at Lambeau*.
I was wrong about ... the Panthers' being unable to translate those competitive performances into wins -- including that close one at Lambeau. Carolina is an impressive 4-1 in one-score games thus far.
Second-half double down
Despite clipping the Falcons on the road in Week 11, the Panthers struggle to string together enough wins to prevent an eighth consecutive sub.-500 season.
Final projection
- Record: 8-9 (previous projection: 6-11)
- Division finish: 2nd (previous: 3rd)
- Will the Panthers make the playoffs? No.
Saints' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 2-8
- New Orleans' actual record: 2-8
- Games correct: 8 of 10
I was right about ... the Saints' overall record, as well as their win over the Giants in Week 5.
I was wrong about ... Week 6 vs. the Pats. Thought they'd surprise Mike Vrabel's bunch, and, to be fair, that game was much closer than you might remember.
Second-half double down
The tough times in NOLA continue over the final two months, but it's not all bad down in the Bayou. Look for the Saints to add at least one more win to their ledger after Week 14.
Final projection
- Record: 3-14 (previous projection: 3-14)
- Division finish: 4th (previous: same)
- Will the Saints make the playoffs? No.
Midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 5-4
- Tampa Bay's actual record: 6-3
- Games correct: 4 of 9
I was right about ... the Bucs being the class of the division.
I was wrong about ... how much early success they’d have despite dealing with injuries to so many of their best players.
Second-half double down
In August, I wrote, Tampa has the pieces to make a real run in the NFC. I still believe this. Just need them to get -- and stay -- healthy when the new year hits.
Final projection
- Record: 11-6 (previous projection: 9-8)
- Division finish: 1st (previous: same)
- Will the Buccaneers make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 4 seed.
NFC WEST
Cardinals' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 6-3
- Arizona's actual record: 3-6
- Games correct: 6 of 9
I was right about ... September.
I was wrong about ... the Titans game. I 100 percent didn’t expect this -- and then this and then this -- to happen.
Second-half double down
Arizona’s inability to finish out close contests in the first half of the season plagues them down the stretch, too. Despite being feisty on a weekly basis, the Cards end up on the wrong side of six of their final eight games.
Final projection
- Record: 5-12 (previous projection: 8-9)
- Division finish: 4th (previous: 3rd)
- Will the Cardinals make the playoffs? No.
Rams' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 5-4
- L.A.'s actual record: 7-2
- Games correct: 5 of 9
I was right about ... the Rams taking down the AFC-leading Colts in Week 4. Happy to take credit for a game that seemed like a no-brainer back in August.
I was wrong about ... the Week 6-7 sequence. The Rams not only didn’t lose to the Ravens and the Jags (in London), but they won both by a combined margin of 52 to 10. Whoops.
Second-half double down
I thought it might take a bit longer for the Rams to get rolling, but I was confident that once they did, Sean McVay’s group wouldn’t look back. Nothing I’ve seen through 10 weeks has changed my mind. The NFC West champs are going to be a problem come January.
Final Projection
- Record: 14-3 (previous projection: 11-6)
- Division finish: 1st (previous: same)
- Will the Rams make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 2 seed.
49ers' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 5-5
- San Francisco’s actual record: 6-4
- Games correct: 7 of 10
I was right about ... San Francisco beginning the season 3-0.
I was wrong about ... them losing to the Rams on TNF. That short-handed effort on just three days’ rest was both brilliant and stunning, earning a spot (at least temporarily) on my ballot for top five games of the year.
Second-half double down
The Niners navigate their way through an injury-plagued season to hit double-digit wins and, with a little help from the Vikings in Week 18, punch their postseason ticket.
Final projection
- Record: 10-7 (previous projection: 11-6)
- Division finish: 3rd (previous: 2nd)
- Will the 49ers make the playoffs: Yes, as the No. 7 seed.
Seahawks' midseason report card
- Projected record through Week 10: 3-6
- Seattle's actual record: 7-2
- Games correct: 3 of 9
I was right about ... the Seahawks being a football team? Not a ton else, it seems.
I was wrong about ... how quickly all the new pieces would fit together. I also thought they’d lose at Washington in Week 9, which looks particularly silly in retrospect.
Second-half double down
I had Seattle winning five of its final seven games when I did this exercise back in August, and I’m sticking with it.
Final projection
- Record: 12-5 (previous projection: 8-9)
- Division finish: 2nd (previous: 4th)
- Will the Seahawks make the playoffs? Yes, as the No. 5 seed.