NFL Fantasy 2025 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Running backs for Week 16

Despite Irving's disappointing outing last Thursday, if you managed to survive and advance, you should stick with the Buccaneers back this week against Carolina. The Panthers have once again struggled against the run, ranking bottom five in yards per carry and yards before contact per carry allowed, while sitting bottom 10 in rushing yards, touchdowns and explosive runs yielded to RBs. Carolina has struggled even more as of late, giving up the second-most rush TDs and fourth-most explosive runs to backs since Week 11. Plus, Irving eclipsed 180 scrimmage yards in both games against the Panthers last season. He remains a must-start this week.

Dowdle once again was Carolina's clear lead back this past Sunday, showing the game before the Week 14 bye was not a new trend. While he is the top dog, Dowdle has been more of a safe-floor option as of late. We have not seen his high ceiling in a while. The Bucs are a middle-of-the-pack ground matchup for RBs, though they have allowed 1.5 yards before contact per carry both on the year and since Week 11 -- both bottom-five marks in the NFL. That means Dowdle could have some room to run, and if so, we know he can hit home runs. And where the Bucs really struggle is through the passing game, allowing the most receiving yards to backs on the year and since Week 11. He has an RB2 floor and RB1 upside in this one. Chuba Hubbard is a streaming option for those needing to dive deeper.

Like most Vikings in 2025, Jones has become mostly a floor play. Regardless, I think this is a week to go ahead and get him into your starting lineup. The Giants have been abysmal against the run in recent weeks. Since Week 11, they have allowed a league-high 6.0 yards per carry, 2.2 yards before contact per carry and a 14.6 percent explosive run rate. Those are all pretty on par with their season numbers, as well. It's why they have given up the second-most rushing yards. They are also in the top 10 when it comes to most receiving yards yielded to RBs this season. While the Vikings split ground work, Jones has been running ahead of Jordan Mason -- and he is the one who can be used in the passing game. That makes him less game-script reliant.

Judkins has struggled to get going on the ground in recent weeks. I do like that he has received at least three targets in three straight games, tying his season high last week with four. That is important: If the Browns fall behind the Bills, the rookie back will not be completely game-scripted out. As we have seen, the floor may be lower than his fantasy managers would like. The upside is high in this one, though. The Bills have allowed the third-most rushing yards and most rushing touchdowns to RBs this season. They are bottom three when it comes to explosive run rate allowed to backs, both on the year and since Week 11. A big play or two is all Judkins needs to come through in this game.

Sadly, it has come to this. With the Raiders just getting blown out weekly, the carries haven't been there for Jeanty. He has run for 35 yards or fewer in three straight games and four of his last five. The targets had been keeping him afloat, but while the Raiders are still throwing his way, opponents seem more prepared for that, and the production has disappeared. Jeanty has 15 yards on 10 targets over the last two weeks. Now he gets the Texans, who have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to RBs this season and been even tougher as of late. They do not give much room to run and limit explosive plays. I am not confident Las Vegas will score a touchdown in Houston. Due to that, if you have another option you like, you can get away. For instance, I am sitting Jeanty in favor of RJ Harvey in a league.

Tony Pollard is coming in hot, averaging 23.2 fantasy PPG in his last two. He ran for over 100 in each and scored three total touchdowns. I still think you sit him against a tough Kansas City run defense. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs this season, with the sixth-fewest rushing yards against. You could argue they are just getting better, too: Since Week 11, they've allowed explosive runs at the lowest rate and are bottom five in yards per carry and yards before contact per carry. This is a battle between two teams that are eliminated from playoff contention, and if you chase the points, you could end up eliminated, as well.

Seattle's offensive line is the problem, but the running backs are paying the price. Kenneth Walker III is a big name that still carries a lot of potential, but not on this current version of the Seahawks. He has topped 14 fantasy points once since Week 4. He has scored a combined 6.7 fantasy points in the last two games. Now, Walker draws the Rams, whom he actually got for 20.1 fantasy points back in Week 11 (his one big game since September). That might tempt you to toss him into your lineup. I wouldn't, considering the Rams have allowed the third-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs, including just five touchdowns. They've given up explosive runs at the fourth-lowest rate this season and second-lowest since Week 11.

Last week, we saw Hunt take a back seat to Isiah Pacheco. With the Chiefs now eliminated from the playoffs, perhaps they go more that route to figure out what they have with Pacheco moving into an offseason that figures to see plenty of change. On top of that, the Titans have been a much-improved run defense as of late. They have allowed -0.1 yards before contact per carry since Week 11 -- not only is that the best mark in the NFL, but it also means opposing backs are getting hit before the line of scrimmage on average. That is not a recipe for success for a runner with Hunt's style. Without a touchdown, the floor is fewer than five fantasy points. With one, the ceiling is not much higher. It was a good run, but it is over.