With the 2021 NFL Draft set to begin at 8 p.m. ET from Cleveland, here's my final look at Round 1.
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This has been the pick since the Jets beat the Rams back in December. I'm not sure Urban Meyer leaves the TV world if this quarterback isn't waiting in the wings.
About a week ago, I heard a whisper that this wasn't a done deal. I made some more calls, and barring something crazy, it is. Wilson will be the Jets' next great hope at QB.
How confident am I on this? I've worked with John Lynch on FOX broadcasts. I've known Kyle Shanahan for years. And I have a lot of history with the 49ers organization. They won't tell me (or anyone) squat.
Cincinnati isn't telling anyone this pick. I respect that. I've gone back and forth on Ja'Marr Chase and Sewell here. In the end, I'm going with protection for the franchise cornerstone.
This works out perfectly for the Dolphins. If it goes Kyle Pitts and Chase at Nos. 4 and 5, I could see them taking DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle over Penei Sewell.
The Lions want to trade back. Badly. Our first massive trade of the evening comes here. I get the feeling the Eagles want one of the top two CBs, and with whispers out there that their NFC East rivals are also in that market, Howie Roseman continues to wheel and deal. In this case, the Philly GM has to give up just the 12th overall pick and a pair of third-rounders to move up five spots and get Surtain.
New England goes and get Fields, a guy many in the league seem to be split on. Although it might be a silent majority, more offensive coaches than not love the size, the speed, the makeup, the smarts and the person. I don't think the Patriots are done with their offseason of aggressiveness.
But they got Teddy Bridgewater! I don't know. Lance likely isn't starting in Year 1, anyway. George Paton's first pick as a GM is his future franchise pick.
With Surtain off the board, the Cowboys don't have to decide between the draft's top two CBs. As NFL Media's Jane Slater noted on Good Morning Football, there's familiarity here, too. Horn's dad, Joe, played for Mike McCarthy in Kansas City.
The Giants miss out on both of the top corners (either of whom I think they'd take instead of a wideout) and go with Waddle over his college teammate DeVonta Smith. Dealer's choice here. GM Dave Gettleman and coach Joe Judge love toughness. They love gamers. Waddle's return to the field for the College Football Playoff National Championship Game is all that and more.
Detroit trades back and still gets a mauling offensive lineman who exemplifies what the new regime is looking to be. Think about the personalities in that building, including Chris Spielman and Dan Campbell. Tough. Tough. Tough. That's Slater.
Every draft, there's a player who goes a little higher than the mocks anticipate. That could be Vera-Tucker this year. I won't be shocked if he goes before Slater when it's all said and done. The Chargers make sense, even with DeVonta Smith still on the board.
Phillips could go as high as No. 7 and as low as No. 20. Some teams have dinged him, while others love his game. I think he's the first pass rusher off the board and would be great opposite Danielle Hunter.
This would be an unbelievable scenario for Carolina. It's unlikely Smith falls all the way to 15th. Heck, I think he could go as high as No. 6 to Miami. But the way this shakes out, the Panthers trade back seven spots, scoop up the Heisman winner and get an additional second-round pick from New England.
The Cardinals love Collins. I know that. But could they really go defense two years in a row with top-20 picks? Another name to watch: RB Najee Harris.
The Raiders -- particularly head coach Jon Gruden and offensive line coach Tom Cable -- would love to see one of the top tackles fall to No. 17. I don't see it happening. So they go Parsons, who would be an immediate upgrade at linebacker in Las Vegas.
I've heard a lot of buzz on Paye of late. Like top-10 buzz. Brian Flores is a defensive coach at heart. The Dolphins get offense with the sixth pick, and Paye falls to them at No. 18. Seems about right.
If one of the QBs falls out of the top 10, both Washington and Chicago could be movers and shakers in the teens. Here, Washington takes Darrisaw -- a player who went from being lightly recruited out of a Military Academy to becoming a top-20 prospect at Virginia Tech.
Chicago's offense wasn't very good last year. One reason for that: The injuries across the offensive line early in the season. Once the younger guys got going, the team started to gel a bit more down the stretch. With the run on tackles in full swing, the Bears draft one of the last first-round prospects on the board at 20.
With a lot of buzz on the Jets potentially taking a running back, the Steelers give a fourth-round pick to Tennessee to move up two spots and take Harris.
The Jets would love one of the top offensive linemen to fall to them here, but it looks like the run occurs in the 12-to-20 range. Instead, they get Etienne, who may fit the Kyle Shanahan-esque offense that Mike LaFleur will deploy in New York more than Najee Harris.
Tennessee has needs at corner, and Newsome is fast, smart and tough. Good fit here.
Jacksonville wants to build from the inside out and do so with speed, length and fury. Urban Meyer recruited Oweh way back when the edge rusher was in high school. Meyer gets him here, as his first defensive draft pick.
I think Cleveland goes corner -- or that's what I'm hearing, at least. This could be Campbell, Eric Stokes or whichever CB the team values most on its board. Caleb Farley could be the guy, too.
Moehrig does it all. The Thorpe Award winner (given to college football's top DB) would be a great fit in the Ravens' defensive backfield. Baltimore might think this is a luxury, but the TCU product could play all over the field. If Moehrig's on the board, don't be shocked if he's the pick at 27.
Lots of Caleb Farley-to-New Orleans talk on Tuesday and Wednesday. It's possible. Or the Saints go with Toney, who could be an electric addition to an offense that lost Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook this offseason.
Moore could be the fifth receiver taken in Round 1, or be an early-Day 2 pick. I think the 20-to-32 range makes sense. And yes, the Packers grab a WR in the first round for the first time since drafting Javon Walker 20th overall back in 2002.
Onwuzurike is a name you're not seeing in too many Round 1 mocks. I think he could be a sneaky end-of-the-first-round guy. From what I know about a lot of teams' boards, his name is up there and atop a lot of the DT groups. Buffalo makes sense.
If the Ravens could get a pass rusher like Rousseau this late in the first round, defensive coordinator Don "Wink" Martindale would be doing backflips. They lost two fine ones in free agency. Rousseau would fit a long tradition of great former Miami Hurricanes becoming Ravens.
Tampa Bay could take anyone here. Every team I've spoken with seems to see Davis as a first-rounder. Let's drop him in a room that already has Lavonte David and Devin White.