NFL Fantasy 2025 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Quarterbacks for Week 14

A couple weeks ago, people were asking me if they should sit Josh Allen against Houston's defense. We know how that went: The reigning league MVP suffered through his worst fantasy outing of the season (8.1 points) in a 23-19 Bills loss. After that game, I went on NFL Fantasy Live and advised sitting quarterbacks against the Texans. But I am willing to make an exception for this elite signal-caller, even with his offensive line in a compromised state. Houston is the toughest possible matchup a QB can have in 2025, with DeMeco Ryans' unit allowing fewer than 12 fantasy points per game to the position. Despite that, I will be starting Mahomes where I have him for a couple of reasons. First, he is Patrick Mahomes, and with the Chiefs at 6-6, this is a de facto playoff game. He’s been held under 22 fantasy points just four times this season. Plus, the Texans' one weakness is running quarterbacks. They have allowed a league-high 6.4 yards per carry to the position. That includes 10 explosive runs (10-plus yards) by QBs, the second-most in the NFL. Mahomes' legs have made him an elite fantasy option again, and we tend to see him run more in the playoffs. Between that and the catch-and-run touches Andy Reid can generate for his pass catchers, Pat remains in play despite the brutal matchup.

Dak is back on track as one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football, having scored 20-plus points in three straight games -- and seven of the past nine. In fact, since Week 4, only Matthew Stafford has thrown more touchdown passes. Expect Prescott to stay hot on Thursday Night Football against the Lions, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy PPG to QBs on the season and in the last month. On top of that, Prescott leads the league in yards against man coverage and ranks fifth in TDs. The Lions play man at the highest rate in the NFL -- by far -- and they just lost starting CB Terrion Arnold for the season. Good luck covering George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb in man coverage. Prescott is a must-start option in what should be a very high-scoring game indoors at Ford Field.

Dallas’ defense has improved against the run, but the Cowboys still have struggled mightily versus the pass. In fact, the last two QBs to face them both cleared 29 fantasy points. Four of the past five opposing signal-callers topped 23 fantasy points vs. Dallas, with Geno Smith being the lone exception. All in all, the 'Boys have allowed the most passing yards, touchdowns and fantasy PPG to QBs this season. Goff's home/road splits are not as jarring as in the past, but it's nice to have him in Ford Field, where he has still played his best. He remains a strong start in what could be a TNF shootout with both teams on regular rest after playing on Thanksgiving.

In this file, Love has flip-flopped between "start" and "sit" more than anyone else this season. And if you look at his game log, it is easy to see why: He has been extremely up and down. Coming off a huge Thanksgiving performance, I expect him to stay hot against the Bears. Chicago both plays man and blitzes at above-average rates. Love is third in yards, second in pass TDs and first (by far) in EPA against man coverage. He ranks first in EPA and second in touchdowns when blitzed. On top of that, Chicago has allowed the fourth-most passing TDs and is in the top 10 in fantasy PPG allowed to QBs. Love stays in play in this matchup.

Full disclosure: I have not gone back and forth on a "sit" call this much all season. We know the upside with Lamar -- he can be otherworldly good. That said, he has failed to reach 8 fantasy points in any of his last three games, with five turnovers and zero touchdowns in that span. He has averaged just 19.6 rushing yards per game since returning from injury in Week 9. Last week, going against the Bengals' much-maligned defense, he posted a career-low -0.68 EPA per dropback and a 14 percent success rate. I do not believe Jackson is anywhere near fully healthy. Plus, he has a history of struggling in this matchup, averaging just 14.9 fantasy PPG against Pittsburgh over his career, with the Steelers holding him to one pass TD or fewer in four of six games. He has never run for a TD in this rivalry. The Steelers' defense generally has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, but these AFC North divisional games are different. On the plus side, Jackson has added time to heal up if he is not healthy, having played on Thanksgiving. He is not a must-sit, but I would rather start any of the four guys featured above, as well as Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield. Lamar vs. Jacoby Brissett is a legit question this week.

Herbert was already dealing with a banged-up offensive line; now he has a broken (non-throwing) hand. Apparently, he's going to try to play against the Eagles, but with the game being on Monday night, that is an added risk. If he ends up being a last-minute scratch, you could be left plugging in Trey Lance with your season on the line. Plus, the O-line injuries have really dinged Herbert’s fantasy value. With more quick passes than ever before, Herbert has failed to score 15 fantasy points in each of his last three games. Now, he gets the Eagles, who have allowed the second-fewest pass TDs this season. That defense is only getting tougher, allowing a league-low 51 percent completion rate since Week 9. Get away from Herbert this week.

My theory with Jones all season has been to get away from him in matchups where he will be under a high amount of pressure. That is exactly what I expect this week, as this Jacksonville defense has been a different unit since the Week 8 bye. Since the break, the Jaguars have generated pressure 39 percent of the time, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. (Pre-bye, the Jags were at 30 percent with a league-low 3 percent sack rate.) With Jones dealing with a fractured fibula, that only makes this matchup more concerning. Plus, the magic has kind of faded, with Jones being held under 17 fantasy points in four straight. I would look to get away in this divisional matchup.

Williams has enjoyed some productive fantasy weeks -- the issue is that his floor is a week-losing performance. He has scored fewer than 12 fantasy points in five of his last nine games. With that sort of day from your quarterback, it is extremely tough to survive in one-QB leagues. In seven of those nine contests, he logged one or zero TD passes. Now, he draws the Packers, who have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy PPG to QBs this season and fifth-lowest over the last month. Since Week 9, Green Bay has yielded the fourth-fewest passing yards and second-fewest passing TDs. The floor is entirely too low to trust Caleb in this one. 

Daniels was not originally included here, but with the possibility that he could return to action this week, I wanted to drill down on his potential for this game. I'd be apprehensive to toss him right back into your lineup. This would be his first game in a month. And with the dual-threat QB coming off a dislocated left elbow, I would expect the Commanders to have him run less -- perhaps significantly less. That is what makes him special for fantasy purposes. In fact, he has not reached 240 passing yards in a game this season, having thrown multiple passing touchdowns in just two contests. Minnesota's defense is a tough unit that blitzes at a high rate, which gives me some concern about Daniels taking hits. I want to see him return and play at a high fantasy level before trusting him in a huge spot right before the fantasy playoffs.