The winning formula in fantasy football is simple: Acquire the most productive players with the least resistance to points production as you can.
That's why I helped create a system that predicts player performance and provides the actual strength of an opponent and actual player production values. When used, this sytem has proven to be up to 37 percent more accurate than the metrics that everyone else in your league is using.
The system gives you a "Player Rating," "Defense Rating," and a third "Matchup Rating." The ratings are based on the most advanced and accurate mathematical algorithm in fantasy football, and take into account the following factors:
» Adjusted Player scoring based on strength of their previous opponents *
*» Adjusted Defense scoring based on the strength of the players they have faced at each position *
*» Whether the player and/or defense plays better at home or away *
*» How the player compares against other players within their same position *
*» How defenses compare against other defenses against the same positions *
*» ... and many more!
Sound complicated? Don't worry -- it's simple to understand. All you need to know is that the player, defense or matchup with the higher rating is the better option. That's it. Leave the number crunching to the geeks.
Use this system as the basis for your fantasy decisions to take the guesswork out of winning in fantasy football and get the edge on the competition.
EDITOR'S NOTE: The defense ratings for this week are based on numbers from the first three weeks of the 2014 regular season. "Statistically" a three week data sample out of a 16 week fantasy season is enough to draw valuable conclusions. The data will continue to become more accurate each week. Plan on coming back for fresh algorithm-based ratings that you cannot get anywhere else!
Weekly Matchup Ranges
Below are the BEST and WORST defensive ratings against each position. The higher the number, the better the matchup:
Legend
Here's an easy breakdown of how each player module works. When these terms are mentioned in the text (i.e. "best") they are corresponding to these ratings and colors:
Expect More:
Players who could exceed expectations this week based on the weakness of their opponent.
QB
Coming off a disappointing Week 3 performance, Stafford owners are looking for a bounce-back game and this week's matchup against the Jets could be the perfect opportunity. Stafford is the 14th best algorithm-rated quarterback, despite his 11th fantasy-points-per-game (FPPG) ranking. This tells us that he is very matchup dependent -- his best performance of this season came against the Giants in Week 1, his only "best" rated opponent. In Week 4 he faces another "best" rated Jets defense that is the algorithm's third-easiest rated matchup for opposing fantasy quarterbacks -- slightly more attractive than its fourth-rated fantasy points against (FPA) ranking. This matchup is also a good fit for Stafford's throwing style. The Jets give up 62.22 percent of their completions on throws to the short right and Stafford throws 65.12 percent of his passes to the short right. The Jets allowed a 104.2 passer rating on passes thrown short right against the Bears on Monday night. The combination of these factors should boost Stafford's fantasy production beyond his 16 point-per-game average. Forecast:Stafford will see two "bad" and one "worst" matchup between Weeks 5 and 8 going into the Lions' bye week. Stafford will enjoy one "best" matchup against the Saints in Week 7. [Recommended Usage: QB1]
Tom Brady is the 31st ranked quarterback in fantasy production and has many of his owners considering benching him this week. But with six quarterbacks on a bye there limited options. Luckily, you can "expect more" out of Brady this week than his unimpressive 11 FPPG average. One thing to consider is that he has not had any easy matchups so far this season. Two "bad" and one "worst" algorithm-rated defenses to be exact. Brady's passing accuracy has been a concern, but in Week 3 he showed some improvement. New England ran more play-action, which was good because Brady's passer rating is 98.5 on play action versus 78.5 when not. Of his 38 drop-backs in Week 3, the Patriots called 10 play-action passes, and Brady completed seven of them for 88 yards. This could be the sign of more stability for Brady moving forward. But the biggest reason to "expect more" from Brady this week is that he faces a top-10 easy rated opponent in the Chiefs defense. The Chiefs gave up an average of 16 fantasy points to Ryan Tannehill and Jake Locker, two quarterbacks that actually are rated below Brady after three games. This could be the one week that Brady gives you starter-worthy numbers. Forecast: Brady's easiest four matchups are still ahead of him with three of them in Weeks 7, 9 and 16. However, He should be on your bench next week, as the Bengals come to town. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1]
RB
Lamar Miller owners are likely playing him this week as Week 6 leaves a ton of starting-caliber running backs on byes. This week, there are plenty of reasons for you to "expect more" from Miller. He averaged seven yards per carry last week on 54 snaps, playing 77 percent of the total offensive snaps. He had his best production of the year even though the Dolphins threw 43 passes in that same game. Miller averages .64 fantasy points per touch, so with a slight increase in touches from his Week 3 total of 20, he can easily surpass his 10 FPPG average, giving owners plenty of reason to "expect more". Miller was also in the top 10 in yards after contact in Week 3 and now faces a Raiders defense that has had trouble stopping running backs who can reach the second level. The Raiders are a slightly better defense against the run than their FPA ranking shows, but their top-10 easiest algorithm rating will give Miller owners plenty to look forward to. Forecast:Miller might only see starter snaps this week as Knowshon Moreno is due to come back after the Dolphin's Week 5 bye. Miller will still be in the mix, at much lower volume as the Dolphins face their five toughest opponents yet to finish the season. [Recommended Usage: RB2]
Donald Brown was one of the algorithm's favorite running backs coming into this season. His 1.01 fantasy points per attempt on 81 rush attempts last season proved that he has the ability to produce if given the chance. He started off this season with an underwhelming 28 snaps in the first two weeks, but injuries have thrust him into the starting role and owners can "expect more" in Week 4 against the Jaguars. The Jaguars rank as the easiest defense in FPA rankings, but to their credit they have faced three "better" rated and one "best" rated running backs this season. This is the type of thing the algorithm can adjust for and in the Jaguars' case they adjust to the seventh easiest-rated defense for opposing backs. No running back who has received at least one snap against the Jags this year has scored less than four points, which is Brown's weekly average. Last week he had 31 rush attempts and six targets, so he is definitely trending toward RB2 production. The Jaguars will have their hands full with Brown since they have had tons of trouble tackling in their first three games and Brown is fifth in the league in yards after contact -- a bad combination that should favor Brown. Forecast: With no definitive timetable for Chargers' starting running back Ryan Mathews to return, Brown could see heavy volume for at least the next three weeks. Next week, he has a very tough "worst" rated matchup against the Jets followed by a "best" rated matchup against the Raiders. [Recommended Usage: RB2]
WR
Michael Crabtree has been heating up in fantasy since a slow start in Week 1. After finally getting healthy, he has become the most consistent fantasy wide receiver over the last two weeks. Crabtree is the 22nd ranked receiver and the algorithm gives him an "average" rating. However, if you take out his injury-hampered Week 1 numbers he is a "best" rated receiver. He has yet to face any easy matchups this season, but in Week 4 he faces the Eagles who are the algorithm's fourth-easiest rated defense for fantasy wide receivers. The Eagles have faced nothing but "average" and "worst" rated receivers over the last three weeks, but have still allowed them all to score above average fantasy points. They even made a fantasy star out of Allen Hurns in Week 1. Any of the 49ers pass-catchers could take advantage of this matchup, but you have to like the chemistry that Crabtree and Colin Kaepernick have in the last couple weeks. To quantify how good they are together, Kaepernick has a 113.4 quarterback rating when targeting Crabtree, which is seventh in the NFL. Anquan Boldin has not done much with his opportunities and Vernon Davis is banged up, so this is shaping up to be the perfect week to "expect more" of Crabtree. Forecast: This is the beginning of a nice three-week run for Crabtree. After this "best" rated matchup this week, gets the generous Chiefs defense and another "best" rated game against St. Louis in Week 6. [Recommended Usage: WR2]
Bye weeks can cause you to compromise when looking for startable players to add to your fantasy roster. Greg Jennings is a great example of a guy you should consider starting this week, even if he isn't a viable week-to-week starter. Sure he will be playing with a rookie quarterback making his first official start, but new quarterbacks need dependable receivers and Jennings has caught all 12 of his catchable targets this year with zero dropped passes. Jennings is not a "best" rated receiver but he can rise to his opportunities. The last time Jennings played a "best" rated matchup was in Week 1 and he scored 12 fantasy points. This week he faces the Falcons defense that is the algorithm's third-easiest matchup for fantasy receivers even though their FPA ranking shows them as a middle of the pack matchup. The algorithm's ranks are more reliable because it factors in things like the Falcons having not yet faced a receiver with higher than a "better" rating. The Falcons have given up double-digit points to low-rated receivers who had not done much else against their other opponents. This means a low rated receiver like Jennings could be a good bye week filler that you can "expect more" from in Week 4. Forecast:You can expect a little regression from Jennings after this juicy Week 4 matchup as he faces a "bad" rated Green Bay defense in Week 5 followed by a "worst" rated Lions defense in Week 6. [Recommended Usage: WR3]
TE
Zach Ertz has been a potential breakout tight end waiting to happen. He has not yet made it to a "best" rating because he still has not made the most of his matchup opportunities. He has already had two easy matchups so far this season and scored 13 and nine points respectively in those contests. Not bad production, but other tight ends facing those same defenses produced more fantasy points. Ertz has also seen more targets of 20-plus yards than any other tight end in the NFL this season, so he is certainly part of the game plan. This week Ertz gets a solid matchup against a banged up 49ers secondary who are the ninth-easiest algorithm-rated matchup for fantasy tight ends despite their sixth-toughest FPA ranking. Do not be deceived, this is a great matchup for Ertz and you should expect a lot more than his eight FPPG this week. Forecast:Although there is a lot to love about Ertz's role in the Eagles offense, he faces nothing but "bad" rated defenses for fantasy tight ends between Weeks 5 and 12. But don't trade him away because you will want him on your roster when his three "best" rated matchups in a row come up during Weeks 13 to15. [Recommended Usage: TE1]
D/ST
SD at JAC: The "start any defense who plays the Jaguars" mantra may seem dated, but it still rings true thus far in 2014. The Jags average less than 15 points a game, allow five sacks per game and keep their yardage production under 270 yards per game. This is an excellent matchup for any defense, including a competitive Chargers unit. Keep the Chargers for the next few weeks as they face the Jets, Raiders, Chiefs and Dolphins over the next month.
DET at NYJ: The Jets offense has been improving lately due to a commitment to their run game. The Lions front seven is one of the best in the NFL and should put this game on the arm of Geno Smith to win it. The Jets give up 2.5 sacks per game and average at least one interception thrown. They do rack up decent yards and points, but if your league rewards you for sacks and turnovers, the Lions should have one of their better games this week.
Expect Less:
Players who could fall short of expectations this week based on the strength of their opponent.
QB
Do not be alarmed to see your stud fantasy quarterback lead off the "expect less" section this week. Please do not bench the algorithm's highest-rated quarterback! If you read last week's Fantasy Number Crunch you saw that every-week starting tight end, Jimmy Graham, was an "expect less" and scored only five fantasy points. There are similar reasons to "expect less" from Luck this week. The first three defenses Luck faced this year were all top-10 easy rated defenses, but this week he faces his first tough matchup of the season against the Titans. Even FPA rankings show the Titans as a top-two tough matchup. The algorithm adjusts them to a top-three toughest, making for the first real resistance Luck has seen in 2014. The Titans have not faced any "best"-rated quarterbacks yet this year, but still have not allowed more than 13 fantasy points to any opposing passer. Also consider that Luck will likely not need to throw four touchdowns to win this contest. The Titans are the algorithm's ninth-easiest matchup for opposing running backs so expect the Colts to win without having to throw all day and to do so through solid games from Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson. He is still your starter, just "expect less" than his outstanding 26 points per game production. Forecast: Luck only has three "worst" rated matchups all season. His next one is in Week 7 against the Bengals, but until then he gets one "bad" matchup as the Colts travel to Baltimore in Week 5 and one "better" matchup when they host the Texans in Week 6. [Recommended Usage: QB1]
Through the first three weeks of the season Geno Smith has averaged 15 fantasy points a game. He has played 100 percent of the offensive snaps and even averages six rushing attempts per game. Interestingly, he has faced nearly the exact same caliber of opponent in each game -- three straight "bad" rated defenses, all top-10 against fantasy quarterbacks. With so many quality quarterbacks on byes, you could easily find yourself looking at Smith as a possible replacement. While his average of 15 fantasy points per game looks appealing, you should really "expect less" from him this week. Smith faces his first "worst" rated matchup of the season as he faces the Lions at home. The Lions made quick work of Aaron Rodgers last week and have faced only one "best" rated quarterback this year, Cam Newton, who scored 19 fantasy points against the Lions defense. Smith is a lower-rated quarterback than either Rodgers or Newton so he cannot be expected to outperform this tough matchup. The numbers indicate that he will score less than his 15 point average this week. If that gets you by, then he is a start. Otherwise, look elsewhere for a bye-week replacement. Forecast: Smith will not see a matchup that will make him starter-worthy until he faces the Broncos in Week 6. Besides that matchup, he has four "worst" matchups and "four" bad matchups remaining and shouldn't take up space on your bench as a result. [Recommended Usage: QB2]
RB
Reggie Bush finally started to gain some fantasy momentum in Week 3 against the Packers when he scored a season-high 15 fantasy points, bringing his average to nine fantasy points a game. Yet, Bush owners should pull back on their expectations for Week 4 as Bush faces his most difficult matchup of the season against the fourth-toughest rated Jets defense. Bush has not yet faced a "worst" rated matchup and only managed to score double digits in one of two "better" matchups. The Jets earned their elite rating by shutting down top running backs like Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy. Holding talented players to their season lows is how you get a solid algorithm rating on defense. The Jets front seven is very difficult to run on, but their secondary is easy to pass on. This is why we like the Lions passing game but advise you to "expect less" from Reggie Bush. Forecast: Week 5 will be a bit easier for Bush as the 14th-easiest rated Bills run defense comes to Detroit. However, that will be the last of the easy matchups for Bush until Week 8. [Recommended Usage: FLEX]
Sitting Murray this week is out of the question. He is leading the NFL in rush attempts after three weeks (75) and has the second most FPPG of any running back. His Week 4 opponent, the Saints, should make it more difficult for him to exceed his average of 19 fantasy points per game. The Saints rank as middle of the pack in FPA, but if you adjust their totals for strength of opponent, they are actually the sixth-toughest defense for opposing running backs. This makes Murray's Week 4 opponent deceptively tougher than you'd think. The Saints faced only one "best" rated running back all season and gave up a mere 12 points. Another number to consider this week is that the Saints happen to be the algorithm-rated second-easiest defense against fantasy quarterbacks, making it more tempting to throw on them than run. Plus, the Saints have a high producing offense that should rack up points on Sunday night against the Dallas defense. If the Cowboys fall behind, Murray's touches could suffer. Start Murray as you normally would and expect a decent game but not one that may make him worthy of putting in your Daily Fantasy lineups this week. Forecast: Murray should get right back into his normal level of fantasy production next week as he faces the second-easiest algorithm-rated defense in the Texans. After that he will have his only two "worst" rated opponents within three weeks as he gets the Seahawks in Week 6 and the Redskins in Week 8. Â [Recommended Usage: RB1]
WR
Hurns started off the season as either a candidate for "breakout" receiver or "Kevin Olgetree" of the year after he posted 23 fantasy points against an easy Eagles defense in Week 1. He remains an "average" rated receiver after three weeks due to his two-catch, 13-yard dud against the Redskins, who are a top-10 easy matchup. To his credit, Hurns performed well against the Colts in Week 3, a team that is rated as the third-toughest against fantasy receivers. However, those numbers were skewed by his 61-yard touchdown. Without that he would have turned in another poor performance. This week he faces the Chargers who are a top-five tough matchup. Hurns caught just 33 percent of the balls thrown to him over 20 yards when we was with Henne, dropping a big one while wide open in Week 3. Bortles, a top-10 rated quarterback in the preseason, is one-for-one on deep balls to Hurns in his short tenure. There could be something between these two in the future, but the numbers say this will likely not be the week that these two get on track for big scores. Forecast: Hurns will have a couple of slightly easier matchups over the next two weeks until he gets two easy ones in Week 7 against the Browns and his best matchup of the season in Week 8 against the Dolphins. Â [Recommended Usage: WR3]
Decker is going to be a game-time decision this week as he works to come back from his hamstring injury. He is listed here to give his owners reason to look elsewhere this week rather than wait on Decker as a potential start. Even if Decker plays, he faces the Lions defense which is the second toughest rated defense for opposing wide receivers. Despite injuries in their secondary, the Lions have held all nine opposing wide receivers to less than 11 fantasy points. This includes two "best" rated receivers in Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin. Decker is a "worst" rated receiver even though he is rated more highly than his 43rd overall points ranking. Owners may hope for a 12 point effort like in Week 2 when he faced the Packers and played 44 snaps, but even with a full workload he is likely to produce less than his seven fantasy point per game average. Feel safe to look elsewhere this week rather than waiting on his Sunday injury status. He is not worth the start in this matchup even if healthy. Forecast: This week will be a sign of things to come for Decker and the Jets passing game. After this tough matchup, the Jets face three "worst" rated defenses in a row with the Chargers, Broncos and Patriots. You should get used to him being on your bench for a while. [Recommended Usage: WR4/SIT]
TE
Martellus Bennett has scored four touchdowns through three games this season but has also faced two of the top-10 easiest defenses against fantasy tight ends thus far. So the numbers really indicate that he "should" be producing under those circumstances. He still should be started this week as his matchup against the Packers is not as imposing as the No. 1 toughest FPA ranking may indicate. Green Bay has yet to face an elite tight end, so if you adjust for opponent strength, the algorithm has Green Bay as the 13th-easiest matchup of the week for tight ends. Again, more reason to start him. The caution comes because Green Bay is still one of the toughest defenses that Bennett has faced this year. Keep him in your lineup, but do not use him in eliminator or Daily Fantasy contents this week because his annual Week 4 fade could happen again this year. Forecast: Bennett has already faced two of his easiest matchups of the year and has five "bad" and two "worst" matchups coming up in his next six games. [Recommended Usage: LOW TE1]
D/ST
DAL at NO: The Cowboys defense may be a popular bye-week pickup off waiver wires this week because of their solid Week 3 performance. However, you should be reminded that a defensive touchdown saved their week as they forced zero sacks against a third-string quarterback. The Cowboys face the Saints this week, who average only one sack a game, less than one interception a game and average over 400 yards and 26 points a game, even when losing.
HOU vs. BUF: The Texans have been one of the best fantasy defenses in the league so far this year. They certainly have the personnel that you would want to rely on each week. Since it is a bye week and the Texans have done so well so far, you can't drop them for this week. Just "expect less" from this unit as they face a Bills offense that ahas given up only one sack and less than one interception per game in three contests.
Week 5 Forecast:
Want to get the jump on bye weeks in Week 4? Don't wait until next week's waivers, grab these guys now and enjoy their tasty match ups before they are even on your opponents' radar:
QB:Austin Davis at PHI, Carson Palmer at DEN, Mike Glennon at NO
RB:LeGarrette Blount at JAC, Lorenzo Taliaferro at IND, Shonn Greene vs. CLE, Carlos Hyde vs. KC
WR:Eddie Royal vs. NYJ, Jordan Matthews vs. STL, Brian Quick at PHI
TE:Niles Paul vs. SEA, Owen Daniels at IND, Garrett Graham at DAL
DST: PIT vs. JAC, NO at TB, SD at NYJ
-- Chris Anthony is a guest contributor to NFL.com, hailing from Fantasy Omatic. You can follow him on Twitter @FantasyOmatic. Be sure to check back each week for more analytics-based analysis as the algorithm will only get more accurate over time!
