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Fantasy mailbag: Luck poised to make superstar leap

Are there any fantasy football players you absolutely won't draft this year? - @MichelleKnopp1 (via Twitter)

Michael Fabiano: I will never say never about drafting or not drafting anyone. Want proof? I even included Ryan Mathews, who has burned me in two of the last three years, as a player I would take in our perfect draft feature. Of course, he would be the fourth running back on my roster. Would I want Mathews playing a more prominent role on my fantasy team on a week-to-week basis? Heck no, not even after Chargers coach Mike McCoy said that he expects him to be "the guy" in the backfield. It seems we have all heard that before when it comes to Mathews, yet he continues to fail to meet expectations. Here's another example - I'm not a huge fan of Mike Wallace this season, but would I take a chance on him as a No. 3 wideout? No doubt about it.

If you had to pick one player to target from your Fantasy Man Crush list, who would it be - Lamar Miller? - J. Khalifa (via Facebook)

M.F.: I definitely have a lot of love for Miller, who could turn into one of the best bargains in fantasy football this season. But if I had to pick just one player off the list, it would be Andrew Luck. In the words of our fantasy football pal Dave Dameshek, hear me now and believe me later - Luck is going to be the next Aaron Rodgers, and it could happen as soon as this season. Sure, he did have his share of inconsistent weeks and tossed 18 interceptions as rookie, but Luck still ranked among the 10 best quarterbacks based on fantasy points. With a full season of pro experience under his belt and former college coordinator Pep Hamilton now calling the offensive shots, I think Luck is on the verge of becoming an absolute superstar in the world of fantasy football.

Calvin Johnson is a lock to be the first wide receiver drafted this season, but who is the most reliable second pick at the position? - @jordanmcnally94 (via Twitter)

M.F.: This is a three-man competition between Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, and Brandon Marshall, and I'm going with the latter in standard leagues. I know, you think I'm being a Cowboys homer here but that's just not the case. The deciding factor for me is strength of schedule based on fantasy points, and Bryant has the advantage. In fact, he has the easiest slate of games at his position with contests against the Eagles (2), Giants (2), Redskins (2) and Saints among his most favorable opponents. With that being said, Marshall has the third-easiest slate and is the wideout to draft behind Megatron in PPR formats. Regardless, you're getting one heck of a wide receiver.

How would you rank the following running backs: Montee Ball, Le'Veon Bell, Chris Ivory, Eddie Lacy and Miller? - T. Ross (via Facebook)

M.F.: In standard leagues, I would rank these backs as follows: 1. Ivory; 2. Miller; 3. Ball; 4. Bell; 5. Lacy. I'm a huge fan of Ivory, who should be able to post top-20 numbers at the position as the bell cow for the New York Jets. A poor man's version of Marshawn Lynch, he's a bruiser with big statistical upside. Everyone knows I'm a fan of Miller, while Ball, Bell and Lacy have a great chance to be atop the depth charts of their respective teams. You can find all our the NFL Fantasy LIVE rankings on our site or in the 2013 Draft Kit.

I really like Steven Jackson and David Wilson, but I don't want to jump the gun on either of them. What rounds should I target these runners? - @GMandrella (via Twitter)

M.F.: Let's take a look at their average draft position (ADP) on NFL.com. Jackson is coming off the board in Round 4, while Wilson is still available, on average, at the end of Round 6. Personally, I think Jackson is going to be off the board at some point in the third round with fellow backs like Matt Forte, Stevan Ridley and Frank Gore. As for Wilson, you would be wise to target him no later than the end of the fifth round - assuming he even lasts that long.

Hi Michael, huge fan of the Mailbag! I'm in a PPR keeper league that rewards six points for touchdown passes and doesn't penalize negative points, so it's favorable for quarterbacks. Which two players should I retain from Luck, LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden and Marshall? - J. Castaneda (via Facebook)

M.F.: As I said above, I am a huge fan of Luck and I would hate to lose him as a keeper in most scenarios - especially when the scoring system favors his position. That leaves you with McCoy, McFadden and Marshall - all legitimate options, but in this case I'm going with the running back. When given the chance to keep a young runner with a versatile skill set like McCoy over most wideouts, well, it's going to be hard for me to pass on him. I'm expecting a statistical revitalization for McCoy under new coach Chip Kelly, who loves to use his backs in a prominent offensive role.

Which running back would you rather have in 2013: Maurice Jones-Drew or Gore? - @alfredowb (via Twitter)

M.F.: I'm going with Jones-Drew, but that could change if he has any setbacks in his return from an injured foot. "Pocket Hercules" will be evaluated heading into training camp and is one of the players to watch from a fantasy perspective. He still has some gas left in the tank at the age of 28, and he'll be motivated to produce in the stat sheets in a contract year. Gore, who has been a solid fantasy back in recent seasons, is close in value but will enter camp at the dreaded age (at least for running backs) of 30.

What do you think of Danny Amendola and Greg Jennings this season? Do you think Wallace has a chance to be a steal? - M. Wagner (via Facebook)

M.F.: I love everything about Amendola - except for the fact that he's been prone to injuries over the last two years. Still, I would absolutely be thrilled to get him as a high-end No. 3 fantasy wideout in standard leagues. I'm not as confident in Jennings, who will see a major downgrade at quarterback from Aaron Rodgers to Christian Ponder. I would be comfortable landing him as a low-end No. 3, but I'd prefer him as a No. 4 (that minimalizes risk). As for Wallace, I have to admit having some concerns about his move to Miami. Since Dan Marino retired in 1999, the number of Dolphins wide receivers to post 1,000 or more yards is limited to Chris Chambers, Brandon Marshall and Brian Hartline - and only Chambers scored more than six touchdowns in his 1,000-yard campaign.

Which wide receiver would you rather have this season - Demaryius Thomas or Roddy White? - @ThtsKimpossible (via Twitter)

M.F.: I'm take Thomas over White all day long. While the Falcons wide receiver has been one of the more consistent players at his position, he has seen his fantasy points totals decline slightly in each of the last three years. That has much to do with the emergence of Julio Jones, who will be drafted ahead of White in most leagues. As for Thomas, I don't expect him to see a major decrease in targets even with Wes Welker in the mix. He's more of the home-run hitter in the pass attack, and Peyton Manning developed quite an impressive rapport with him last season.

Pick one quarterback from Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson - H. Tanks (via Facebook)

M.F.: I'm going with Kaepernick right now, though things could change if we find out that RGIII (knee) is going to be back in time for Week 1. I'll admit that the Niners quarterback did lose some of his fantasy luster when his top option in the pass attack, Michael Crabtree, was lost to a torn Achilles. However, it's Kaepernick's huge upside as a runner that makes him so valuable. Despite the fact that he didn't start for the entire 2012 season, Kaepernick still finished fourth in rushing yards and tied for third in rushing touchdowns at his position. I firmly believe that he'll hit the 800-yard mark as a runner in 2013, especially considering the loss of his favorite passing target. I would expect Kaepernick to come off the board no later than Round 5.

Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to _**@MichaelFabiano**_ or send a question via **Facebook**!

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