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Fantasy mailbag: Avoid the early QB stampede

With Michael Fabiano off this week, Marcas Grant comes off the bench to answer your questions in this week's Fantasy Mailbag.

Which projected No. 2 receiver do you see stepping into a No. 1 role this year? (ex. Cecil Shorts in 2012) - @Cakeasaurus (via Twitter)

Marcas Grant: My leading candidate is T.Y. Hilton. Last season, the rookie was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners with 861 receiving yards and seven touchdowns -- four of which were 40 yards or longer. This year, Hilton once again works with Andrew Luck, who should take another big step forward. On top of it, Reggie Wayne will turn 35 during the season -- you have to wonder how much longer he can continue at his current pace -- and Donnie Avery has moved on to Kansas City. The stars are aligning for Hilton to make a name for himself in fantasy circles.

Would you trade Trent Richardson and Reggie Wayne for Stevan Ridley and Doug Martin? - @wick34 (via Twitter)

M.G.: Definitely. While I expect good things from Richardson this year, the chance to have two backs with a chance to finish in the top 10 at their position is too good to pass up. With running backs being such a commodity, to have two quality producers for the price of one good running back and a low-end No. 1 receiver (the likes of which you can replace in a re-draft) is a deal in your favor.

With the top five QBs gone in the first 3-4 rounds, who is the best value in the late rounds of a 10-team draft? - @hschmalz (via Twitter)

M.G.: That sound you hear is Michael Fabiano tearing his hair out at the idea of five quarterbacks gone before the end of the fourth round. Yet, it's likely to be a reality in plenty of leagues. If you decide to wait on a signal caller, it's not the end of the world. There was fewer than 70 points difference between the first and tenth fantasy QBs last season (compared to more than 100 points difference between the first and tenth RBs). That means you can wait to draft guys like Tony Romo, Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford and still have a very productive fantasy quarterback leading your team on a weekly basis. Even in the late rounds, players like Carson Palmer and Eli Manning can be value picks -- so long as you aren't trying to roll with them as your No. 1 options.

Who's the best to take for a RB2 out of Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson and Stevan Ridley? - @JRadnor23 (via Twitter)

M.G.: While I really like Matt Forte to have a nice year under new coach Marc Trestman, I'm leaning toward Stevan Ridley. The current state of affairs with the Patriots passing game likely means more emphasis on the running game. That's notable for a team that, somewhat surprisingly, led the NFL in rushing touchdowns and posted the second-most rush attempts in the red zone last season. Tom Brady might still be great, but with fewer proven weapons, New England could be forced to rely more on a back who was very reliable in 2012.

Who is a value pick at TE if the top guys (Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten) are gone? - @theBrownAsians (via Twitter)

M.G.: Nearly a month ago, I felt like the purported lack of depth among fantasy tight ends was overhyped. Sigh. That said, there are still a couple of quality options available after the top three or four guys. Vernon Davis is primed for a bounce back, especially with Michael Crabtree out of action for the foreseeable future. Dennis Pitta has become Joe Flacco's favorite target and Kyle Rudolph led the Vikings in targets last season. And if you're looking for a sleeper, I've been driving the Brandon Myers bandwagon since early last season. Moving from the Raiders to the Giants can only help him improve. So maybe the TE spot isn't a bleak as some would like you to believe.

Thoughts on Antonio Gates' fantasy production for this upcoming season? - @CesRiv55 (via Twitter)

M.G.: Once upon a time, the mantra was "if you don't get Gates, then wait." Those days are over. While the veteran made hay in the red zone last season, he didn't offer fantasy owners much when the Chargers were outside of the opposing 20-yard line. Moveover, he's seen his targets decrease every year since 2009 and has had trouble staying healthy. At this point, the 33-year-old is just a No. 2 option.

Who should I keep? Robert Griffin III (Round 7), Russell Wilson (Round 10) or Jimmy Graham (Round 7)? - @SnoopFrogg3 (via Twitter)

M.G.: Tough call. And based on the current ADP on NFL.com, all three of those players are going higher than what you'd currently have to forfeit in order to keep them. Just for sheer value, keeping Wilson for a 10th round pick is the best choice. He might not out-produce RG3, but he likely won't be far behind. As for Graham, well ... see above for how you can replace him on your roster -- or try to grab him in a re-draft.

Could Jacoby Jones be an impact player in fantasy football? - @Caporazzi (via Twitter)

M.G.: Without a doubt. Last season, Anquan Boldin led the Ravens with 112 targets -- that's a lot of passes needing to be spread around. Don't expect Jones to overtake Torrey Smith as the top WR target, but his speed makes him a big play threat and a possible high-end No. 3 fantasy option. If you play in a league that rewards you for an individual's punt and kick return yardage, that value goes up even more.

Who would you take with the first overall pick in keeper leagues? Im thinking Aaron Rodgers or should I go with another position??? - @JohnCrystalMugz (via Twitter)

M.G.: Stop me if you've heard this, but running backs continue to be a fantasy commodity. As long as Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch are there, that's the direction you want to go. Yes, it's tempting to reach for Rodgers or Drew Brees at the top of the draft, but you should think relative value -- and it's greater at the top of the RB rankings than for QBs. If the pickings are slimmer among running backs when draft day comes around, by all means go after A-Rod.

What would be your ideal draft position and why? - @Travis941 (via Twitter)

M.G.: I like my draft position like I like my seat at the movies ... right in the middle. Sure, it's cool to double up on picks being at either end of a snake draft, but the long wait in between means there's plenty of time for your draft strategy to be blown up before you select again. If I land somewhere between third and seventh in a 10-team draft, I'm okay with that.

Marcas Grant is NFL.com's fantasy editor. Follow him on Twitter @MarcasG.

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