NFL Week 11 game picks: Colts top Packers; Ravens over Titans

Gregg Rosenthal went 9-5 on his predictions for Week 10 of the 2020 NFL season, bringing his total record to 92-53-1. How will he fare in Week 11? His picks are below.

SUNDAY, NOV. 22

Cincinnati Bengals 24, Washington Football Team 21

After a hot start, Chase Young has one sack and one other QB hit in his last six games. Montez Sweat has been better, but the Washington pass rush has slowed down in recent weeks. If that trend continues, Joe Burrow should have enough time to outscore Alex Smith, who is playing the trusty vet version of Burrow's style of play, and playing it well.

Atlanta Falcons 28, New Orleans Saints 27

This matchup is trouble annually for the Saints even when they are rolling, and the two-quarter sample size of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill splitting work didn't inspire confidence. I was tempted to go with the Falcons all week and finally switched my pick after NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Friday that Hill is expected to start at quarterback. The Falcons are getting Calvin Ridley back from injury and would be 4-0 under interim coach Raheem Morris if not for Todd Gurley's touchdown by mistake. They are better at stopping the run than you think and I'm not convinced the Saints will be able to pass much.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 13

The Jaguars' defense is undeniably better since the team's Week 8 bye, getting surprising contributions from Sidney Jones and DaVon Hamilton. The Jaguars' offense is undeniably worse with Jake Luton at quarterback, which gives them little hope against the T.J. Watt for DPOY Express.

New England Patriots 31, Houston Texans 27

The Texans rank dead last in run defense and turnovers forced, which is a bad recipe against a diverse, peaking New England rushing attack led by Damien Harris. The Patriots didn't turn the ball over and didn't need to throw much during their two-game winning streak. They should be able to replicate that in this reunion with old pal Romeo Crennel.

Cleveland Browns 24, Philadelphia Eagles 22

Carson Wentz just played one of his better games of the season, with the most healthy teammates around him since Week 1, in a 10-point loss to the Giants. If that doesn't convince you these Eagles are closer to bad than unlucky, then nothing will.

NOTE: The predicted score for this game was updated (two points added to the Eagles' total) following Friday's news that Myles Garrett won't play on Sunday after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Detroit Lions 27, Carolina Panthers 24

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero report that Teddy Bridgewater is unlikely to play Sunday, which flips my original prediction. Panthers backup P.J. Walker was a sensation in the XFL, and I love Matt Rhule as an offensive coach, but I don't love him that much. Matthew Stafford returned to practice Thursday despite his thumb injury, but there are injury questions about Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift. Give the Lions the slight edge if they have their starting quarterback in a matchup between two defenses that struggle to get off the field.

Baltimore Ravens 28, Tennessee Titans 24

The Ravens suddenly can't run up the middle or set the edge on defense, two bedrock traits to their 2019 identity. The Titans are well-constructed to take advantage of both weaknesses, but I like the Ravens to narrowly exorcise their playoff demons because Ryan Tannehill's pass protection is an even bigger problem.

Los Angeles Chargers 24, New York Jets 17

The Chargers aren't the same without Joey Bosa, Austin Ekeler and Chris Harris Jr. The Jets might be better without Sam Darnold, which is a concern. The only opponent remaining on the Jets' schedule that currently has a losing record is New England, which will host them in Week 17, so Sunday could be Gang Green's best chance at a win for a while. Then again, Bosa returned to full participation in Wednesday's practice ...

Miami Dolphins 24, Denver Broncos 16

The massive weekly edge the Dolphins have in special teams, turnover margin and third-down defense isn't about luck and should show up big this week. The more Drew Lock plays, the more glaring it is that the Broncos' offense looks no better with him at the helm than it did with Jeff Driskel.

Minnesota Vikings 26, Dallas Cowboys 20

The Cowboys' defense played its best two games of the season before the Week 10 bye, with Peak DeMarcus Lawrence joined by 2018 Randy Gregory, 2018 Leighton Vander Esch and surging rookie Neville Gallimore. All that and the return of Andy Dalton should help the Cowboys lose close games against quality teams, rather than being blown out. The Vikings are a quality team!

Indianapolis Colts 29, Green Bay Packers 26

I trust this Colts team if it can protect Philip Rivers. I don't yet trust the Packers' defense to rush the passer, as Za'Darius Smith, Kenny Clark and Preston Smith have been lesser versions of their 2019 selves so far. The health status of Green Bay's starting cornerbacks closer to game time could lead me to flip this pick, but this is easily the toughest defense Aaron Rodgers has faced since falling to the Bucs.

Kansas City Chiefs 34, Las Vegas Raiders 23

An improved Raiders defense over the last three games mirrors a sluggish Raiders passing attack over the same stretch, which is not a promising trade-off this week. COVID-19 protocols for both teams complicate this pick, but the Chiefs look like the kind of defending champions who play their best when they need to. Kansas City needs to avoid getting swept by Las Vegas.

MONDAY, NOV. 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, Los Angeles Rams 21

This is a great Monday night game, but it could be more of a defensive showcase than you might expect, with the Rams' excellent cornerbacks (hello, Darious Williams!) and Aaron Donald making life difficult on Tom Brady. The Bucs' blitzkrieg style also doesn't bode well for Jared Goff, so the superior running game may take the day. While I love me some Darrell Henderson, it's Ronald Jones who has the better matchup.

ALREADY COMPLETED

Seattle Seahawks 30, Arizona Cardinals 26

Russell Wilson's slide in the MVP campaign polls started in Arizona, where Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph sent waves of pressure that the Seahawks haven't found answers for since. With help from a running game that's getting healthier for this rematch, Wilson is too good and the Seahawks have too much big-game experience to crater against a flawed, banged-up Arizona defense.

Follow Gregg Rosenthal on Twitter.

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