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J.J. Watt tops NFL MVP forecast; Andrew Luck on list

Everyone picked an MVP pick this week. We've been doing it here all season, every Wednesday.

I was interested to see that Peyton Manning was the consensus pick, edging out Matt Ryan. I was the only person to pick J.J. Watt. Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger also got some love. Here's my Top 10:

1. J.J. Watt, Houston Texans

No player is dominating his position more than Watt. In a season when you can make a strong case that the top quarterbacks have been a little uneven (great one month, good the next), Watt was the biggest difference-maker of the first half.

2. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Ryan's win over the Dallas Cowboys was typical of his season. He was very good on third downs, loaded up passes to Roddy White and Julio Jones, and consistently played good situational football.

3. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

This is the highest Manning has been on the list. He was pinpoint with his accuracy against the Cincinnati Bengals, got picked off a few times and then quickly erased his mistakes. He might be only No. 3 on the list for the first half, but he's the favorite to be on top by season's end because of his schedule ahead.

4. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

We feel like the Steelers are setting up opponents with a lot of short stuff at this stage of the season and will burn them deep when it counts. Big Ben has been excellent.

5. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

How high are Brady's standards? He's on pace for 4,800 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. Yet people are saying he's slipping.

6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: Great stats, but too many relative "off weeks." Rodgers carries his team, but he's 16th in yards per attempt, ranked between Ryan Tannehill and Sam Bradford. Just saying.

7. Eli Manning, New York Giants: His worst three games of the season were his last three.

8. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: Seriously, where would the Colts be without him?

9. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: He has passed Percy Harvin as the guy carrying the Vikings' offense.

10. Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears: We're not sure people realize how outrageous four forced fumbles in a single game is. Tillman has been terrific all season.

Follow Gregg Rosenthal on Twitter @greggrosenthal.

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